Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 27, 2013 1:10:26 GMT -8
As an AFBer helpfully reminded us, Friday's a trading holiday. So two days to go in this holiday-shortened, March Madness week.
|
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 27, 2013 2:51:30 GMT -8
AAPL was up in PM but CNBC just ran a story on Hon Hai saying that orders have slowed...and oh my goodness....bad for AAPL! (This story was out LAST week, if you recall.) Stock is now down almost 2 pts.
This must be a very slow news week for CNBC - they are grasping at "anything AAPL" to put out.
Andrew Sorkin even asked the reporter if it wasn't a possibility that AAPL was trying to diversify their manufacturers. Her response (let me set the stage - creepy organ music in the background) , "Well we will just HAVE TO SEE!" (Cue the organ music and bring out the zombies!)
So are you spooked yet?
Un-frigging-believable
|
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 27, 2013 4:17:27 GMT -8
Sad to see how these day traders whip this stock around on 50k shares in PM. Taking it down 4 to prompt some technical level reaction.  |
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Mar 27, 2013 4:25:51 GMT -8
Apple's price action might instead be due to the mess in Italian politics, which drove European markets and U.S. futures down.
|
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 27, 2013 4:32:35 GMT -8
Apple's price action might instead be due to the mess in Italian politics, which drove European markets and U.S. futures down. Apple rarely trades with the market - particularly as of late. |
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Mar 27, 2013 4:41:02 GMT -8
IMHO, find something to short. Markets: TOPPING PATTERN. Topping can take two months of chopping up and down at the high end, and even make incremental highs, but this is a CLEAR topping pattern.
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 27, 2013 5:00:05 GMT -8
IMHO, find something to short. Markets: TOPPING PATTERN. Topping can take two months of chopping up and down at the high end, and even make incremental highs, but this is a CLEAR topping pattern. I echo this (disclaimer: I'm always in iPad's camp because she's so damn good). |
|
|
|
Post by hellojapan on Mar 27, 2013 5:02:47 GMT -8
I haven't seen this posted here but maybe I missed it. Horace put out a cool graphic to put iTunes revenue in context. Data is for Q4 2012. Attachments:
|
|
|
|
Post by hellojapan on Mar 27, 2013 5:12:54 GMT -8
He has recently been really interested in iTunes and his idea is that iTunes and Apple retail operations are comparable to the totality of Amazon's retail business. www.asymco.com/2013/03/27/apple-retail-vs-amazon-retail/"Although Apple’s overall retail operations are only about half of Amazon’s they are far more profitable on an operating level. They are also growing at a similar pace. Amazon as an equity is priced at approximately twice sales. By that ratio, Apple’s retail business would be worth $70 billion. Of course, that valuation presumes that, as with Amazon, operating profits are disposable." |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2013 6:21:34 GMT -8
AAPL was up in PM but CNBC just ran a story on Hon Hai saying that orders have slowed...and oh my goodness....bad for AAPL! (This story was out LAST week, if you recall.) Stock is now down almost 2 pts. This must be a very slow news week for CNBC - they are grasping at "anything AAPL" to put out. Andrew Sorkin even asked the reporter if it wasn't a possibility that AAPL was trying to diversify their manufacturers. Her response (let me set the stage - creepy organ music in the background) , "Well we will just HAVE TO SEE!" (Cue the organ music and bring out the zombies!) So are you spooked yet? Un-frigging-believable I refuse to watch CNBC's Squawk Box with Melissa Lee. She clearly has a bias against Apple, for undisclosed reasons. She's both articulate and dumb, perfect for a glib host doing weather. How she keeps her job on a stock show is a mystery, a complete embarrassment to CNBC (and that's saying something). |
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Mar 27, 2013 6:21:36 GMT -8
AAPL kind of following the market at open, except down more by a factor of 4 in % drop.
Markets dropped but seem to be holding, AAPL still falling.
I can't believe anything in Italy has that much affect on AAPL, but I am not a financial wizard by any stretch.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Mar 27, 2013 6:47:05 GMT -8
I refuse to watch CNBC's Squawk Box with Melissa Lee. She clearly has a bias against Apple, for undisclosed reasons. She's both articulate and dumb, perfect for a glib host doing weather. How she keeps her job on a stock show is a mystery, a complete embarrassment to CNBC (and that's saying something). I believe she has the full backing and support for her anti-Apple schtick from management at CNBC. It is not just her. The have an National Enquirer strategy now, and she is just one part of it. Bashing Apple is a profitable strategy. I refuse to watch the channel at all, not just her. |
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Mar 27, 2013 7:27:27 GMT -8
Dear Mr. Luca Maestri
Glad to hear you were hired by Apple effective Feb. 28th. I imagine it has been a very hectic month meeting the executive team becoming familiar with coworkers and Apple's strategies.
Last years announcement for a very modest buyback and dividend was on Monday March 19th.
But, "WHERE THE HECK IS THE BUYBACK AND INCREASED DIVIDENDS PLAN". I just ask you whether it is "yea" or "nay" on either the buy back or increased dividend. If "yea" ballpark figures would be much appreciated.
Good luck at your new job, meanwhile us shareholders are being buffeted around by the winds of FUD.
|
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Mar 27, 2013 7:51:56 GMT -8
 Btw, expected retrace to the long-term channel we broke out of. I have $450.50 as the line in the sand. |
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Mar 27, 2013 9:01:23 GMT -8
In my view if we close above 450 I will consider that good news. In spite of watching this type of action for about 7 years, I am still amazed in how the stock moves up 30 points for no reason and then down 20 for no reason in a span of two weeks. It is a traders heaven.
|
|
|
|
Post by lance on Mar 27, 2013 9:09:44 GMT -8
There are a lot of analysts warning that Apple will miss its revenue guidance. This new Peter O guidance style change that already basically caused an additional 10% drop during last earnings call. If Apple misses this new number Peter O number he has to be fired. End of story. His terrible timing and potentially bad guidance is grounds for picking someone else to be CFO if the number is missed.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2013 9:17:35 GMT -8
AAPL is a broken stock, I'm sad to say. It's too gamed by the FUD, options and TA (I'm convinced AAPL is watched and traded on the basis of technical analysis at least, if not more, than any other stock).
Apple, Inc. is a great American company, worthy of a P/E of 15 - 17. But Wall Street is simply not going to value it on the basis of fundamentals, and I need to start looking at other stocks where there is a correlation between valuation and sales and profit performance. Instead, Wall Street prefers the Jeff Bezos magic act, where unfilled promise counts for more than actual results.
This isn't capitulation so much as a realization that Wall Street is a club doing its thing for its members. And guess what, you're not a member of that club...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2013 9:19:48 GMT -8
There are a lot of analysts warning that Apple will miss its revenue guidance. This new Peter O guidance style change that already basically caused an additional 10% drop during last earnings call. If Apple misses this new number Peter O number he has to be fired. End of story. His terrible timing and potentially bad guidance is grounds for picking someone else to be CFO if the number is missed. Name the analysts, because I haven't heard of anyone on record Apple is going to miss. In fact, PED recently put out EPS estimates that are higher than what we've extrapolated from Peter O's cloak-and-dagger guidance in January. |
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Mar 27, 2013 9:23:33 GMT -8
There are a lot of analysts warning that Apple will miss its revenue guidance. This new Peter O guidance style change that already basically caused an additional 10% drop during last earnings call. If Apple misses this new number Peter O number he has to be fired. End of story. His terrible timing and potentially bad guidance is grounds for picking someone else to be CFO if the number is missed. Name the analysts, because I haven't heard of anyone on record Apple is going to miss. In fact, PED recently put out EPS estimates that are higher than what we've extrapolated from Peter O's cloak-and-dagger guidance in January. Pacific Crest today: blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/03/27/aapl-pac-crest-cuts-ipad-view-as-tablets-go-smaller-cheaper/ |
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 27, 2013 9:25:32 GMT -8
I fully expect them to hit within their guided range for revenue and income.
If they miss (and that's very unlikely IMO), expect things to get ugly again. Looking intermediate to long-term, I still don't think sentiment has swung positive. A miss is going to be portrayed as horrific.
|
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Mar 27, 2013 9:28:56 GMT -8
In my view if we close above 450 I will consider that good news. In spite of watching this type of action for about 7 years, I am still amazed in how the stock moves up 30 points for no reason and then down 20 for no reason in a span of two weeks. It is a traders heaven. yea i'm noticing how the day-to-day sentiment change is so drastic as well. a few days in a row with some targetted breaks and we go in 'unstoppable' mode, but then when it turns back around we go in 'world is ending' mode. i think the #1 reason for the above is due the inverse trading with the market that seems to happen way too often. it makes going up seem so powerful and going down seem so horrible. |
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Mar 27, 2013 9:33:54 GMT -8
We may want to start a FYQ2 thread. I am still counting on 45 billion in revenue. Why? For three simple reasons. IPad Mini continues to sell well with no wait time. The iMac sales will surprise us. And Thirdly the iPhone 5 continues to sell well. There are millions of contracts that are coming due and people upgrade. Also we continue to see defections from Android.
Here on my ski vacation all I see is iPhones and iPads in the resort. Many still have the iPhone 4 and 4S. This is further evidence that the upgrade cycle will keep sales very robust for the next 6 months.
|
|
icam
Member
Posts: 447 
|
Post by icam on Mar 27, 2013 9:42:26 GMT -8
I refuse to watch CNBC's Squawk Box with Melissa Lee. She clearly has a bias against Apple, for undisclosed reasons. She's both articulate and dumb, perfect for a glib host doing weather. How she keeps her job on a stock show is a mystery, a complete embarrassment to CNBC (and that's saying something). I believe she has the full backing and support for her anti-Apple schtick from management at CNBC. It is not just her. The have an National Enquirer strategy now, and she is just one part of it. Bashing Apple is a profitable strategy. I refuse to watch the channel at all, not just her. I agree. It's for this reason, as well as other beliefs about I have about CNBC's motives, alliances, tactics, and reporting on Apple and many other companies and topics, that I refuse to watch CNBC. I have no hard proof, but I'm in the tinfoil hat club on this one (I believe they are the puppets and mouthpieces of some of the EO's). I should add that since I stopped watching CNBC my investing performance has improved dramatically. |
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 27, 2013 9:49:26 GMT -8
We may want to start a FYQ2 thread. I am still counting on 45 billion in revenue. There's a thread in fundamentals. You're making a mistake not listening to the guidance. $41-$43B in revs. That's where we will fall. |
|
|
|
Post by bud777 on Mar 27, 2013 9:54:39 GMT -8
AAPL is a broken stock, I'm sad to say. It's too gamed by the FUD, options and TA (I'm convinced AAPL is watched and traded on the basis of technical analysis at least, if not more, than any other stock). Apple, Inc. is a great American company, worthy of a P/E of 15 - 17. But Wall Street is simply not going to value it on the basis of fundamentals, and I need to start looking at other stocks where there is a correlation between valuation and sales and profit performance. Instead, Wall Street prefers the Jeff Bezos magic act, where unfilled promise counts for more than actual results. This isn't capitulation so much as a realization that Wall Street is a club doing its thing for its members. And guess what, you're not a member of that club... I share your feelings and have often thought about selling my shares and letting WS play their games without me. What keeps me in the stock is the realization that, if that hypothesis is true, WS has to drive the stock back up eventually. Once fear has run its course, greed is the only motivator left. The numbers are solid, the cash keeps piling up, and there IS a limit to the power of FUD. When the DOW corrects, where do you think that money is going? |
|
|
|
Post by mace on Mar 27, 2013 10:04:15 GMT -8
IMHO, find something to short. Markets: TOPPING PATTERN. Topping can take two months of chopping up and down at the high end, and even make incremental highs, but this is a CLEAR topping pattern. Two months ago or two more months? The bearish divergence of S&P has lasted two months !!!! |
|
|
|
Post by mace on Mar 27, 2013 10:05:14 GMT -8
IMHO, find something to short. Markets: TOPPING PATTERN. Topping can take two months of chopping up and down at the high end, and even make incremental highs, but this is a CLEAR topping pattern. I echo this (disclaimer: I'm always in iPad's camp because she's so damn good). Please change your avatar to DocLoveiPad. Mav should also change his avatar to MavLoveiPad2. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Mar 27, 2013 10:09:02 GMT -8
We may want to start a FYQ2 thread. I am still counting on 45 billion in revenue. There's a thread in fundamentals. You're making a mistake not listening to the guidance. $41-$43B in revs. That's where we will fall. So true. Even though Apple is going to report WITHIN that range (isn't that the whole idea of the new guidance style according to PO?), people will still go ahead and project bigger numbers and when the real numbers come within guidance range then it'll be considered a fail quarter and down goes AAPL, again! However, with Apple's new guidance style, the expected rev & eps they provide for the NEXT quarter will be the numbers based on which the stock will rise or fall. |
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Mar 27, 2013 10:36:36 GMT -8
AAPL is a broken stock, I'm sad to say. It's too gamed by the FUD, options and TA (I'm convinced AAPL is watched and traded on the basis of technical analysis at least, if not more, than any other stock). Apple, Inc. is a great American company, worthy of a P/E of 15 - 17. But Wall Street is simply not going to value it on the basis of fundamentals, and I need to start looking at other stocks where there is a correlation between valuation and sales and profit performance. Instead, Wall Street prefers the Jeff Bezos magic act, where unfilled promise counts for more than actual results. This isn't capitulation so much as a realization that Wall Street is a club doing its thing for its members. And guess what, you're not a member of that club... Good post! |
|
|
|
Post by mstefa on Mar 27, 2013 11:05:13 GMT -8
We may want to start a FYQ2 thread. I am still counting on 45 billion in revenue. There's a thread in fundamentals. You're making a mistake not listening to the guidance. $41-$43B in revs. That's where we will fall. It'd be interesting if revenues were hit and apple bought back lots of shares so PE goes even further down. |
|
