Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on May 25, 2023 2:28:54 GMT -8
Good morning. The pre-market is red this morning at -0.13% at this moment.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on May 25, 2023 3:27:39 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on May 25, 2023 4:18:44 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on May 25, 2023 4:47:49 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 25, 2023 5:51:08 GMT -8
Apple could be gearing up for a ‘game-changing’ event My personal prediction on the headset is rev 1 is the Developer version. Similar to how Apple had a Developer release of the Intel Mac when it was first released. Devs got a chance to buy it at a hefty price, then return it later. Then, at a later date, the consumer versions were released. I also predict that the "analysts" will be disappointed at the release initially, and the stock will drop. This will recover over the next couple of weeks (or less)
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Post by Lstream on May 25, 2023 6:53:54 GMT -8
A developer version strategy is going to need a big leap of faith by developers. The Intel Mac program had no risk and no choice, since the market was well established, and supporting that direction was necessary to continue in the Mac world.
Developers have been burned in this market. Microsoft has not updated its HoloLens since 2019, and it isn’t clear if there will be a successor. Lots of third party software could end up obsolete. Magic Leap’s gen 1 device was a huge failure, and it’s too early to tell if Gen 2 will be any different.
If all the leaks are accurate, then developers will be facing major questions, when deciding whether or not to jump on board
1. When and if will there be a device priced low enough to create a mass market? $3k is no where near such a price point
2. When if will there be a device that won’t be a limited-appeal kludge? Suitable for a mass market. A ski-goggle form factor with an external battery, will be a niche.
3. What will be the mass market apps? Especially on this kind of form factor. What price points will be needed for what will be a low-volume device until proven otherwise?
These and other questions will lead to challenging investment decisions by developers. And this gives Apple the benefit of the doubt that they won’t pull a HoloLens and are truly in this for the long term, with an aggressive product road map that won’t see de-investment if early results are disappointing.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on May 25, 2023 8:47:15 GMT -8
A developer version strategy is going to need a big leap of faith by developers. Well either a leap of faith or a bunch of money from Apple. All true, but this is Apple ... I suspect that on average there is more faith in Apple than Microsoft, Meta, or Magic Leap. But I still think Apple will have to put some $$$ behind the developers. I'm less confident in this Apple product than any in recent memory, but I hope I'm wrong. I just don't see people wearing this kind of stuff around their face regularly. My son got an oculus quest, used it for a while, and then stopped. Completely. And nobody else in our family has bothered with it. And other's have reported similar. Now I have no doubt that Apple can do a better job than Meta but I'm just not sure if people are ready for it yet. Or ever. I suppose it'll depend on the added value or the perceived added value.
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Post by Lstream on May 25, 2023 9:30:21 GMT -8
Agree on developer dollars helping. And there is lots of precedent for doing so. If a developer wants to bet on anyone, It should be Apple. Basically an unlimited budget, combined with unmatchable engineering chops. Hope I am wrong about the form factor being not more than a niche.
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Post by duckpins on May 25, 2023 9:33:59 GMT -8
Politics? "PED has Tim Cook dares Ron DeSantis to boycott Apple." Can't read this as it is password protected. A thought though, DeSantis is positioning himself to run in the election after next as the anti-woke voice while Gavin Newsome is running as the Woke King. Cook might avoid this. Republicans buy tennis shoes.
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Post by duckpins on May 25, 2023 9:42:27 GMT -8
Interesting Apple goes up with Berkshire down. Doesn't happen often. BRK owns 5%+ of AAPL. However, they don't have much other tech stocks. Their bank, railroad and consumer companies are not moving. The recession fears are still out there and the Bears are still hoping for more. I read there is lots of cash sitting in money markets. Most are all of this will be in the market when the sky is blue again. But the budget, FED uncertainty, recession, inflation, war, and China are too many unknowns for an all in rocket to the moon market. Eventually though, the rocket will launch.
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 25, 2023 9:47:47 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on May 25, 2023 11:29:00 GMT -8
Am I misreading the situation?
Isn't the headset really only for gaming? I.e, people are not going to go around wearing their headset in town?
And, isn't the gaming market a very large market on its own? Thus entry into gaming has similarities to Apple's entry into health, a reasonable side bet.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,654
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Post by 4aapl on May 25, 2023 12:19:27 GMT -8
How do Apple's processors compare to Nvidia's, such as in computing density and efficiency? I know enough to know I don't know enough, such as that some processors do better at certain calculations, other at other calculations, and some with a balance between the two. I think that's the gist of some of the benchmark tools, where graphics cards tend to focus on certain calculations, maybe floating point. I've heard no rumors of such, so it seems outlandish to think Apple would pull a rabbit out of their hat, no matter how timely it might be. But would a M2 or other processor be competitive in this market? Or would it require a little tuning or a lot of tuning? Along with a good way to set things up. Just wondering. Maybe Apple's focus has been so much on overall integrated performance and SOC that it just isn't in the right ballpark. But with Nvidia's stock up around 25% today, and a P/E in the 200's, it's worth asking the offhand question.
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 25, 2023 12:34:10 GMT -8
Am I misreading the situation? Isn't the headset really only for gaming? I.e, people are not going to go around wearing their headset in town? And, isn't the gaming market a very large market on its own? Thus entry into gaming has similarities to Apple's entry into health, a reasonable side bet. VR headsets, yes. That's almost only used for gaming. Tim has been talking about AR too. Augmented Reality. That would overlay images on the real world. Think of heads up displays showing direction, speed etc as an example of current AR.
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Post by deasys on May 25, 2023 13:46:17 GMT -8
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Post by slanted on May 25, 2023 17:29:33 GMT -8
Hey guys, longtime lurker of this board going back to its different forms. Greatly appreciated over all these years!
I’ve also been buying nvidia since 2016. I think there may be an intersection here with Apple. My hope is Apple introduces the first accessible user platforms for AI/augmented interfaces that will eventually span all their devices. Running Apple software.
I would not be surprised if Apple is not already one of nvidia’s biggest customers. Apple’s chips are brilliant, high compute low power. Nvidia’s chips for AI, machine learning and dissecting large language models are entirely different animals – 36 to 46k per.
Apple will need that backend processing power and it only comes from large gpu racks.
Thanks folks for everything!
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on May 26, 2023 0:36:47 GMT -8
Nvidia generated a big gap up on yesterdays chart which will likely get filled at some point in the future. Just sayin.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on May 28, 2023 8:30:31 GMT -8
How do Apple's processors compare to Nvidia's, such as in computing density and efficiency? Apples processors are excellent and compare well to any others. But Apple optimizes for something different than Nvidia does. Apple optimizes for computing power per watt. Nvidia optimizes for computing power, period. In other words, Apple wants powerful AND efficient processors, Nvidia wants the most powerful processors possible. That's one reason why Apple doesn't have heat sinks on their processors while Nvidia does.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on May 28, 2023 13:21:31 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 7, 2023 9:33:06 GMT -8
A developer version strategy is going to need a big leap of faith by developers. Well either a leap of faith or a bunch of money from Apple. All true, but this is Apple ... I suspect that on average there is more faith in Apple than Microsoft, Meta, or Magic Leap. But I still think Apple will have to put some $$$ behind the developers. I'm less confident in this Apple product than any in recent memory, but I hope I'm wrong. I just don't see people wearing this kind of stuff around their face regularly. My son got an oculus quest, used it for a while, and then stopped. Completely. And nobody else in our family has bothered with it. And other's have reported similar. Now I have no doubt that Apple can do a better job than Meta but I'm just not sure if people are ready for it yet. Or ever. I suppose it'll depend on the added value or the perceived added value. All true, but I am encouraged that Apple didn’t do something like drastically lower the price by compromising function or performance in an attempt to make the first release cheaper and more end user oriented. Clearly, they are aware that this is a product different from anything that they have done in the past (at least to my recollection). Who knows, this may be one product that demands both developer and end user versions, at least to get the product off the ground. I applaud Apple for being willing to risk a new marketing strategy, but I am also sure that they have the intent to make this a more broadly accessible product over time.
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