Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 2, 2023 0:46:56 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 2, 2023 3:16:06 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 2, 2023 3:58:52 GMT -8
In sorta Apple news... I watched the Season Finale of Ted Lasso. Loved it!!
I know it was only slated for 3 seasons, but I hope that because they keep referring to it as Season Finale and not Series Finale, there might be more, or a spin-offf.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,653
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 2, 2023 7:12:59 GMT -8
A clear runway, but the timing might not be right. Looks like while my timing wasn't perfect for the tippy top for this week, my idea was about right. I was going to lighten the load just a little (up to 5%), at what may or may not be a localized top. Yesterday I placed an order to sell at 181.75...but only placed it as a daily order. Looking at options, while the stock now has an RSI above 70, options prices don't look bubbly. I ran numbers looking at 20% gains in the underlying over the next .5-2.5 years, and if writing covered calls you'd really only cancel out current ~5% inflation. Recoveries can be finicky, so it's hard to be accurate. But sometimes it's fun to guess at, where from here I could see a 20% annualized rate for 12 months of the next 18, 5-10% for the other, and then 10-15% after that, still aiming at matching or slightly beating the market for the coming 3 and possibly 5 years. Maybe with 70-80% odds. Anyone have other guesses? There are unknowns about potential new hardware and sales on it, and it might be easier to take a guess in a week. But sometimes you just have to go for it with what you have.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,556
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Post by mark on Jun 2, 2023 10:05:41 GMT -8
A clear runway, but the timing might not be right. Looks like while my timing wasn't perfect for the tippy top for this week, my idea was about right. I was going to lighten the load just a little (up to 5%), at what may or may not be a localized top. Yesterday I placed an order to sell at 181.75...but only placed it as a daily order. Looking at options, while the stock now has an RSI above 70, options prices don't look bubbly. I ran numbers looking at 20% gains in the underlying over the next .5-2.5 years, and if writing covered calls you'd really only cancel out current ~5% inflation. Recoveries can be finicky, so it's hard to be accurate. But sometimes it's fun to guess at, where from here I could see a 20% annualized rate for 12 months of the next 18, 5-10% for the other, and then 10-15% after that, still aiming at matching or slightly beating the market for the coming 3 and possibly 5 years. Maybe with 70-80% odds. Anyone have other guesses? There are unknowns about potential new hardware and sales on it, and it might be easier to take a guess in a week. But sometimes you just have to go for it with what you have. The VIX is ridiculously low. Either volatility is "gone" or they're measuring volatility the wrong way. 😅 In general, my biggest mistakes have involved selling stocks, so I try to avoid that as much as possible. When you buy a stock and don't sell it, the most you can lose is 100%, but when you buy a stock and sell it after it doubles, for a 100% gain, if it goes up another 900% then you've lost far more. So I'll take a 100% loss on TDFX, but I'll also take a 1000+% gain on Apple by not selling it, or a 1000+% gain on UHN by not selling it. Unfortunately I sold most of my UNH at piddling gains a decade or two ago.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,653
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 2, 2023 10:46:37 GMT -8
The VIX is ridiculously low. Either volatility is "gone" or they're measuring volatility the wrong way. 😅 In general, my biggest mistakes have involved selling stocks, so I try to avoid that as much as possible. When you buy a stock and don't sell it, the most you can lose is 100%, but when you buy a stock and sell it after it doubles, for a 100% gain, if it goes up another 900% then you've lost far more. So I'll take a 100% loss on TDFX, but I'll also take a 1000+% gain on Apple by not selling it, or a 1000+% gain on UHN by not selling it. Unfortunately I sold most of my UNH at piddling gains a decade or two ago. On the 5 year VIX chart it was at and below this level sometimes in 2018 and 2019. It makes some sense. Take some major wall of worry items off the table, and the market moves in unison in one way while repricing for the perceived lower risk. Especially if the change is in options, which I believe the VIX is using as its measurement of pricing volatility. On selling, sometimes you have to, at least a little. I likely have 40-50 more years of investing. While I wish I still had my initial AAPL shares bought 25 years ago, I do have some large chunks with a cost basis of 23-25. Those are the ones to either hold forever and have repriced at my death, or to donate. OTOH, will AAPL continue to be a great investment for that full time? And on a risk adjusted basis, does it make sense to hold as much of it as long as possible? But the other side is that I'm borrowing a little bit (big number, but a little bit when looked at as a percentage). I find it much easier to buy near the bottom than sell near the top, but ideally both are needed if you are borrowing extra. Given this point in the economic cycle, with some of the risks still on the table, a small new addition to obligations, and the current price of borrowing, I'd rather be borrowing a little less. If AAPL was floating around at $200 plus right now, I might consider liquidating enough to end current borrowing. Instead, lowering borrowing by a sixth to a third would give future flexibility of stock or other purchasing opportunities if they arose (ie the market gets scared and AAPL drops to 150, or we want to buy a house in short order). And while I expect it pretty likely that AAPL will gain 25% in the coming 18 months, there's maybe a 20% chance of some opportunities, while even a 6% borrowing cost adds up. Either way, I'm only talking about potentially lightening the number of shares by single digit percentages. The last 1.5 years have been a net zero for the stock, whereas I expect some gains in the future 1.5 years. Not crazy gains, since Apple isn't tiny anymore. But nice gains, likely beating the market while also partially making up for the flatness over the past 1.5. Each investor is different. But it's good to hear what others are thinking and doing too. I'd rather make small changes now, so that I have flexibility in the future. And since I have a small quantity of shares with a cost basis in the 160's that I added nearly 1.5 years ago, I can make some minor changes without much of a tax bill, but still a trade that's in the green. AAPL is not popping today, so I'll probably just have an order on the table next week, looking for a small jump while also feeling that in general AAPL has a tendency of dropping on new product news.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 2, 2023 11:02:36 GMT -8
Have the AFB Moderators decided, as a group, that it's OK to post *obviously* political opinions, such as I've included below, in the daily thread...and I just haven't heard about that decision? Can nobody see where incendiary comments from both sides would lead with respect to the purpose, functioning and ongoing survival of the AFB? As someone who wasted many hours with political commentary in an AAPL/Apple forum, I thought, and hoped, we had all learned to *permanently* avoid political comments on this site.
======= And it does not surprise me the Russian Federation Spy agencies have it also thanks to leaking from US Intel, noting the anti US government actions our FBI and DOJ in recent years against free elections, certain presidential candidates and Democracy in general.
Crook Putin himself declared in a speech just the other day that the woke cultural and political upheaval in US/Western nations of late reminds him of the Bolsheviks in 1917 pushing insurrection. (No not the the J6 which appears more like the Boston Tea Party than the summer 2020 anti establishment insurrection, the attack on the White House and federal monuments in DC insurrection and the illegal protest at the homes of SOTUS members not to mention the death threats and the attack on the Kavanaugh hearings. =======
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,653
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 2, 2023 11:32:17 GMT -8
Have the AFB Moderators decided, as a group, that it's OK to post *obviously* political opinions, such as I've included below, in the daily thread...and I just haven't heard about that decision? Can nobody see where incendiary comments from both sides would lead with respect to the purpose, functioning and ongoing survival of the AFB? As someone who wasted many hours with political commentary in an AAPL/Apple forum, I thought, and hoped, we had all learned to *permanently* avoid political comments on this site. The last time I polled the group, maybe 6-12 months ago, most people wanted to see a little less moderating. I'd rather not have politics that doesn't directly relate to Apple, AAPL, the market, or the economy. But some people can't help themselves, and the group has said to ease up just a little rather than tighten down even more. Given how few non-spam accounts have been added over the past 5 years, we've all been here a long time. I try to bite my tongue sometimes, finding it interesting to see even views that I don't share, even if they are WRONG!!! And part of that is an introspective look at facts and opinions that I have, and that since I (or anyone) can't possibly be right all time time, then I am also wrong sometimes. The same thing is true on opinions. If in a particular case people are split 50/50, then my opinion is considered wrong by half the people. And really it could be, depending on what you value. The easy non-political case that is relevant to this board is Mac vs PC. The easy statement is that all those PC users are just wrong. But there are cases where it makes sense for them to use a PC, and they may very well have different reasons than you may use to make your decision. Maybe lovemyipad or Since84 is out there, reading this, and will one day just decide to put an end to it all with a few keystrokes. In the mean time, there is the option to hide or blacklist a user. The wording is a little different for a moderator, so while I quickly see options to delete you, ban you, or disable your account, the actual normal option that most people have is buried in there a bit, I think as Block User. It should be right there, in the settings pulldown menu. If there are users that just consistently make your blood boil, consider it. Another option is to just not respond to the message. That is tough to do sometimes. But it's there. I think we can manage to pull through this, trying to be a little less political when posting, but also using our provided tools when needed. If it comes to it the moderators can use their tools too. But this was a self-moderated board for a long time, and though we've lost members over time, we still average about 200 people reading posts each day. We should be able to continue self-managing, but if things get worse or the group decided that they really want more moderation instead of less, we can find a different path forward.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 2, 2023 11:52:31 GMT -8
Just your reminder that the RSI above 70, has historically been a good short-term sell point.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 2, 2023 12:24:34 GMT -8
Transferred from mistaken post in yesterday’s column. Thanks to those who alerted me to my mistake.
Patently Apple has Apple Experimented with a 1-Hour E-Commerce Show on Alibaba's Tmall Last Night in China to showcase their Devices. The first Apple e-commerce broadcast brought in an estimated $75,000 in sales and marked a global first for Apple.
PED had Daniel Ives: Apple will sell roughly 150,000 headsets this year. Also, AI strategy will be front and center at WWDC. We’ll see how the approach may differ from their competitors.
MacRumors has Polestar 2 Software Update Brings Wave of New Apple CarPlay Features.
AAPL is knocking on the door of a one year high.
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Post by zebrum on Jun 2, 2023 13:12:37 GMT -8
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Post by macster on Jun 4, 2023 6:00:26 GMT -8
Have the AFB Moderators decided, as a group, that it's OK to post *obviously* political opinions, such as I've included below, in the daily thread...and I just haven't heard about that decision? Can nobody see where incendiary comments from both sides would lead with respect to the purpose, functioning and ongoing survival of the AFB? As someone who wasted many hours with political commentary in an AAPL/Apple forum, I thought, and hoped, we had all learned to *permanently* avoid political comments on this site. ======= And it does not surprise me the Russian Federation Spy agencies have it also thanks to leaking from US Intel, noting the anti US government actions our FBI and DOJ in recent years against free elections, certain presidential candidates and Democracy in general.Crook Putin himself declared in a speech just the other day that the woke cultural and political upheaval in US/Western nations of late reminds him of the Bolsheviks in 1917 pushing insurrection. ( No not the the J6 which appears more like the Boston Tea Party than the summer 2020 anti establishment insurrection, the attack on the White House and federal monuments in DC insurrection and the illegal protest at the homes of SOTUS members not to mention the death threats and the attack on the Kavanaugh hearings. =======
Responding to political post and STARTING a political post are 2 different things in my book Mr LuckyChoices.🙃
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