Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 6, 2023 0:54:23 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 6, 2023 3:22:22 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 6, 2023 4:34:17 GMT -8
I've only now had the chance to watch the descriptive video on the Apple Vision Pro and saying that it is amazing doesn't come close to describing it. The future possibilities are endless for this new device. If the experience truly is as it was shown in the presentation then it really is worth the $3k price. Just as the iPhone has changed everything so will this new Apple Vision Pro. And you won't need the Vision Pro to see the lines of people waiting outside of the store to buy one, I can visualize it in my head right now..
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 6, 2023 5:24:06 GMT -8
CFRA keeps our Buy opinion. We reiterate our 12-month target price of $190, along with our EPS forecasts of $6.01 for 2023 and $6.61 for 2024. At its WWDC event, AAPL unveiled a slew of new products/software. On the iOS 17 side, upgrades include live voicemail transcription, posters (contact info turned to images), NameDrop (AirDrop update that lets you send email addresses/phone numbers), AI typing/dictation enhancements, Journal App, new Standby mode, and Health App additions. On the hardware side, AAPL unveiled a new 15-inch MacBook Air with an 18-hour battery and 6-speaker system, as well as performance boosts to Mac Studio and Mac Pro, which comes with the new M2 Ultra. AAPL also unveiled its much-hyped Vision Pro (mixed reality headset) at a higher-than-expected $3,499 and CY 24 launch, later than we hoped. Although we are impressed by its best-in-class hardware/immersive capabilities, we think AAPL failed to identify why it’s a must-own device for consumers, at least for now. Still, the company’s entry into the space and greater engagement from developers will help support adoption and new use cases over time. Founded as the Center for Financial Research and Analysis in 1994, today our company is simply known as CFRA. Our proprietary approach blends a unique mix of fundamental equity, forensic accounting, fund, public policy, and technical research with data, analytics, and next-gen technology to arm clients with the financial intelligence required to meet their business and investing goals. As many stock watchers will note: "$AAPL at ATHs, $SPY $SPX and $QQQ all hitting session highs, with WWDC event starting in 10 min." From DANNY of @mrtopstep. :Yesterday’s 1 pm selloff made too much sense. Apple literally ticked an all-time high going into the 1pm time slot — exactly when its WWDC event was primed to start. The SPX, SPY and QQQ were all at session highs too, while breadth was mixed at about 50/50 on the NYSE. All of this lined up for a perfect rug pull." AAPL tanked the minute the new product would be available in 2024.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 6, 2023 8:50:40 GMT -8
CFRA keeps our Buy opinion. We reiterate our 12-month target price of $190, along with our EPS forecasts of $6.01 for 2023 and $6.61 for 2024. At its WWDC event, AAPL unveiled a slew of new products/software. On the iOS 17 side, upgrades include live voicemail transcription, posters (contact info turned to images), NameDrop (AirDrop update that lets you send email addresses/phone numbers), AI typing/dictation enhancements, Journal App, new Standby mode, and Health App additions. On the hardware side, AAPL unveiled a new 15-inch MacBook Air with an 18-hour battery and 6-speaker system, as well as performance boosts to Mac Studio and Mac Pro, which comes with the new M2 Ultra. AAPL also unveiled its much-hyped Vision Pro (mixed reality headset) at a higher-than-expected $3,499 and CY 24 launch, later than we hoped. Although we are impressed by its best-in-class hardware/immersive capabilities, we think AAPL failed to identify why it’s a must-own device for consumers, at least for now. Still, the company’s entry into the space and greater engagement from developers will help support adoption and new use cases over time. Although I am impressed by Apple's best-in-class hardware/immersive capabilities, I think CFRA failed to identify who the F they are or why I should listen to them.
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Post by duckpins on Jun 6, 2023 9:15:43 GMT -8
I saw a talking head on one of the financial channels whose firm downgraded Apple. Never heard of them. These upgrades and downgrades are just marketing, they mean nothing. It is like the news, just an attempt to build the brand.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 6, 2023 10:10:36 GMT -8
CFRA keeps our Buy opinion. We reiterate our 12-month target price of $190, along with our EPS forecasts of $6.01 for 2023 and $6.61 for 2024. At its WWDC event, AAPL unveiled a slew of new products/software. On the iOS 17 side, upgrades include live voicemail transcription, posters (contact info turned to images), NameDrop (AirDrop update that lets you send email addresses/phone numbers), AI typing/dictation enhancements, Journal App, new Standby mode, and Health App additions. On the hardware side, AAPL unveiled a new 15-inch MacBook Air with an 18-hour battery and 6-speaker system, as well as performance boosts to Mac Studio and Mac Pro, which comes with the new M2 Ultra. AAPL also unveiled its much-hyped Vision Pro (mixed reality headset) at a higher-than-expected $3,499 and CY 24 launch, later than we hoped. Although we are impressed by its best-in-class hardware/immersive capabilities, we think AAPL failed to identify why it’s a must-own device for consumers, at least for now. Still, the company’s entry into the space and greater engagement from developers will help support adoption and new use cases over time. Although I am impressed by Apple's best-in-class hardware/immersive capabilities, I think CFRA failed to identify who the F they are or why I should listen to them. Just in case you (or others) haven’t already done this: CFRA.
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Post by hrace on Jun 6, 2023 11:30:45 GMT -8
This is a decent 20 minute long review from someone who tried the Vision Pro yesterday. Nice to hear actual impressions. He seems like a decently technical guy who picked up on small things and understood why they were impressive and could compare to other headsets. Sounds like the eye tracking is very good. He hesitated but uses the word magical. m.youtube.com/watch?v=OFvXuyITwBI
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 6, 2023 11:35:36 GMT -8
I've only now had the chance to watch the descriptive video on the Apple Vision Pro and saying that it is amazing doesn't come close to describing it. The future possibilities are endless for this new device. If the experience truly is as it was shown in the presentation then it really is worth the $3k price. Just as the iPhone has changed everything so will this new Apple Vision Pro. And you won't need the Vision Pro to see the lines of people waiting outside of the store to buy one, I can visualize it in my head right now.. Having had 24 hours to digest this, and trying to distill it understandably to my parents... I think the $3500 price point is actually kind of genius, because this product is simply not ready for prime time consumer level for several reasons (form factor too big ATM, no 3rd party apps or games, production hasn't scaled to make a reasonable consumer price point profitable yet, mass adoption by consumers not yet assured so why risk a flop?).
Steve used to call trial run products "a hobby." That was his euphemism for IRL market research of products. That's what this Vision Pro is, but Apple is too big, and AR/VR too significant, for them to launch hobbies anymore without getting crushed by the cynical hate. The very name "Pro" makes it clear this is for professionals, just as the Mac Pro launched the same day is (nobody is suggesting "the $7000K+ Mac Pro is too expensive for consumers oh noes!"). Apple might have as well called it the Vision Definitely Not a Consumer Product Pro. And I'm sure Tim did Vision Pro's market research with "professionals" to ensure this thing will sell in the professional markets and not be a flop. It will simply sell in Mac Pro numbers at first ("OMG failure!"). Obviously this could be a colossal failure. But Apple couldn't just ignore the VR/AR market. This way, Apple can stick a toe in the AR/VR water with a Pro version (all the while working on a consumer level version) and see where it goes while the other AV companies beat their brains out on the consumer level. Reminds me of that Anchorman quote. But that "Pro" market will also be "professionals" who are video game and app developers (if I write apps for Home Depot or United Airlines or Hilton, I am a "professional"). So this gives every company in the world with an iOS app a chance to write apps for Vision Pro long before a consumer product is ever launched, and if/when it is, there will be apps available from day 1. Compare if they launched a consumer level product today, and there were no games or apps for it! Apple would be pilloried. Frankly, I think there will be consumer level apps available when this thing actually goes on sale because they have 6 months to code for the thing. To be redundant from yesterday, I think Tim should have done a Steve Jobs "3-in-1" metaphor, because this thing really does the job of 3 or 4 products (big screen TV, computer, and gaming/console & home entertainment boxes). How much do people spend on those three things for their living room that they can't take with them outside of the room, let alone on an airplane? "Hey kids, STFU and put on your Vision goggles or I'm turning this car around!"
A word for those who don't fully get the product: Good! Neither do I. If the use case were obvious, it wouldn't be innovative. Real life-changing things must be experienced first hand. If you haven't used this product, how can you possibly review it? I'm reminded of my friend, years ago, who was a Blackberry guy, asking me why he needed an iPhone when he was perfectly happy with his current phone. I said, "you won't understand until you have one, then you'll wonder how you lived without it all these years." Eventually, after buying and iPhone and using if for a while, he recalled the conversation and said I was right. THAT'S innovation. And yes, I haven't tried one yet, so how the hell do I know? I don't. All I'm saying is have an open mind and leave your cynicism and the door and try it out when they are available for demo in Apple Stores. In the meantime, when your friends and fam poo-poo Vision Pro, ask them if they have a $7K Mac Pro. Then ask them if they have a Mac. Then tell them to STFU or you're turning this car around.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 6, 2023 11:56:00 GMT -8
Thanks JD!
Wife follows a podcast or something where the person, self described as a Mac fanatic, asked if people thought the Vision Pro would do well. This, less than 12 hours after the announcement. 17% said yes! 17%, with that price tag and not knowing much of anything about it and definitely not trying it out in person. That's a lot of faith, in the product, or in Apple making great stuff.
I remember the iPod being announced, and people were shocked at the pricing, saying never. I don't clearly remember the iPhone reactions, though we personally waited until a 4s. On the iPad, it was the name that was most shocking to many.
Odds are that the product and market will work out. But change is hard, especially before you even try it out. New categories take some time for mass adoption, both from the pricing/availability and product issues (quality, size, weight, basically mainstream-ability), but also the use cases and software.
We'll see how it goes. But I can absolutely say with high probability that the "everyday person" perspective on it will be different in 3-4 years, than it is here about 24 hours after initial announcement.
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 6, 2023 12:08:24 GMT -8
Great post JD. Very profound. And you didn't mention Biden even once. Bravo!!
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,319
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Post by benoir on Jun 6, 2023 12:14:10 GMT -8
I've only now had the chance to watch the descriptive video on the Apple Vision Pro and saying that it is amazing doesn't come close to describing it. The future possibilities are endless for this new device. If the experience truly is as it was shown in the presentation then it really is worth the $3k price. Just as the iPhone has changed everything so will this new Apple Vision Pro. And you won't need the Vision Pro to see the lines of people waiting outside of the store to buy one, I can visualize it in my head right now.. Having had 24 hours to digest this, and trying to distill it understandably to my parents... I think the $3500 price point is actually kind of genius, because this product is simply not ready for prime time consumer level for several reasons (form factor too big ATM, no 3rd party apps or games, production hasn't scaled to make a reasonable consumer price point profitable yet, mass adoption by consumers not yet assured so why risk a flop?).
Steve used to call trial run products "a hobby." That was his euphemism for IRL market research of products. That's what this Vision Pro is, but Apple is too big, and AR/VR too significant, for them to launch hobbies anymore without getting crushed by the cynical hate. The very name "Pro" makes it clear this is for professionals, just as the Mac Pro launched the same day is (nobody is suggesting "the $7000K+ Mac Pro is too expensive for consumers oh noes!"). Apple might have as well called it the Vision Definitely Not a Consumer Product Pro. And I'm sure Tim did Vision Pro's market research with "professionals" to ensure this thing will sell in the professional markets and not be a flop. It will simply sell in Mac Pro numbers at first ("OMG failure!"). Obviously this could be a colossal failure. But Apple couldn't just ignore the VR/AR market. This way, Apple can stick a toe in the AR/VR water with a Pro version (all the while working on a consumer level version) and see where it goes while the other AV companies beat their brains out on the consumer level. Reminds me of that Anchorman quote. But that "Pro" market will also be "professionals" who are video game and app developers (if I write apps for Home Depot or United Airlines or Hilton, I am a "professional"). So this gives every company in the world with an iOS app a chance to write apps for Vision Pro long before a consumer product is ever launched, and if/when it is, there will be apps available from day 1. Compare if they launched a consumer level product today, and there were no games or apps for it! Apple would be pilloried. Frankly, I think there will be consumer level apps available when this thing actually goes on sale because they have 6 months to code for the thing. To be redundant from yesterday, I think Tim should have done a Steve Jobs "3-in-1" metaphor, because this thing really does the job of 3 or 4 products (big screen TV, computer, and gaming/console & home entertainment boxes). How much do people spend on those three things for their living room that they can't take with them outside of the room, let alone on an airplane? "Hey kids, STFU and put on your Vision goggles or I'm turning this car around!"
A word for those who don't fully get the product: Good! Neither do I. If the use case were obvious, it wouldn't be innovative. Real life-changing things must be experienced first hand. If you haven't used this product, how can you possibly review it? I'm reminded of my friend, years ago, who was a Blackberry guy, asking me why he needed an iPhone when he was perfectly happy with his current phone. I said, "you won't understand until you have one, then you'll wonder how you lived without it all these years." Eventually, after buying and iPhone and using if for a while, he recalled the conversation and said I was right. THAT'S innovation. And yes, I haven't tried one yet, so how the hell do I know? I don't. All I'm saying is have an open mind and leave your cynicism and the door and try it out when they are available for demo in Apple Stores. In the meantime, when your friends and fam poo-poo Vision Pro, ask them if they have a $7K Mac Pro. Then ask them if they have a Mac. Then tell them to STFU or you're turning this car around. Abso-fucking-lutely. Thank you for writing this for me, there is no way I could have been that articulate this time of the morning after 4hrs sleep… Ultimately this is going to be a home run for Apple/AAPL and longs. The key message to Mr Market is the suffix ‘Pro’. But impetuous Mr Market wants a sugar hit right now. Patience… Think of the professional applications in design, visualisation, heath care, productivity, beyond just the consumer and novelty applications. Rightly said, these will take time to develop. To me it feels like a really well considered foundational platform, with nascent hardware and craving 3rd party development. And we’ve all seen this reaction before with iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. Apple will own this segment.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 6, 2023 13:07:32 GMT -8
The price and the absence, as yet, of “killer apps” will make the initial uptake much slower than is usual for a new Apple product. I expect that Apple has already lined up, and is perhaps even providing funding support for, partners who will be expected to commit both funds and personnel to develop applications to make this a “must have” device, at least for companies who can develop services (or experiences) that people will pay for.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 6, 2023 14:15:00 GMT -8
Thanks JD. Great post.
Actually, your mention of Home Depot got me thinking. What if a place like HD, or an interior designer, came over to your place and let you remodel your kitchen. you could see what the new kitchen would look like? What about new home developers. They could let you walk through the new house, and change what you wanted before a hammer was swung.
There are going to be some innovative new apps out there. We just don't know. Anyone who says that there's nothing left to be done, doesn't have the imagination, or doesn't believe anyone else has the imagination, to come up with the next killer app.
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benoir
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Posts: 1,319
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Post by benoir on Jun 6, 2023 15:02:46 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 6, 2023 15:53:20 GMT -8
Thanks JD. Great post. Actually, your mention of Home Depot got me thinking. What if a place like HD, or an interior designer, came over to your place and let you remodel your kitchen. you could see what the new kitchen would look like? What about new home developers. They could let you walk through the new house, and change what you wanted before a hammer was swung. There are going to be some innovative new apps out there. We just don't know. Anyone who says that there's nothing left to be done, doesn't have the imagination, or doesn't believe anyone else has the imagination, to come up with the next killer app. Great use case. I know what is beautiful when I see it, but I must see it. I am terrible at creating or explaining what I want (which is why I have put off decorating or renovating for 4 years). I think another way of determining the success of a new product category is, what does it disrupt? This 17-second video made me realize that, in addition to TVs, it might also disrupt monitors and keyboards (ie desktops and laptops). If you were a student and could buy a laptop or one of these, which would you get? "Yes mom I am tying my paper right now, not playing video games." Maybe the lack of touch feedback is a thing, but I don't think I'd want a physical keyboard with the Vision, because the IRL keyboard wouldn't move around. And yes it is hilariously brutal for Apple to never mention the Metaverse - let alone change the name of the company for it. But I have a dark sense of humor when it comes to Apple crushing the competition. #NotSorry
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 6, 2023 16:24:34 GMT -8
Thanks JD. Great post. Actually, your mention of Home Depot got me thinking. What if a place like HD, or an interior designer, came over to your place and let you remodel your kitchen. you could see what the new kitchen would look like? What about new home developers. They could let you walk through the new house, and change what you wanted before a hammer was swung. There are going to be some innovative new apps out there. We just don't know. Anyone who says that there's nothing left to be done, doesn't have the imagination, or doesn't believe anyone else has the imagination, to come up with the next killer app. Great use case. I know what is beautiful when I see it, but I must see it. I am terrible at creating or explaining what I want (which is why I have put off decorating or renovating for 4 years). I think another way of determining the success of a new product category is, what does it disrupt? This 17-second video made me realize that, in addition to TVs, it might also disrupt monitors and keyboards (ie desktops and laptops). If you were a student and could buy a laptop or one of these, which would you get? "Yes mom I am tying my paper right now, not playing video games." Maybe the lack of touch feedback is a thing, but I don't think I'd want a physical keyboard with the Vision, because the IRL keyboard wouldn't move around. And yes it is hilariously brutal for Apple to never mention the Metaverse - let alone change the name of the company for it. But I have a dark sense of humor when it comes to Apple crushing the competition. #NotSorry Personally, I'd want a physical keyboard with the tactile feedback. As for crushing the competition, it reminds me of The Power to Crush the other Kids, a SNL skit from the 80's
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 7, 2023 1:01:18 GMT -8
Thanks JD. Great post. Actually, your mention of Home Depot got me thinking. What if a place like HD, or an interior designer, came over to your place and let you remodel your kitchen. you could see what the new kitchen would look like? What about new home developers. They could let you walk through the new house, and change what you wanted before a hammer was swung. There are going to be some innovative new apps out there. We just don't know. Anyone who says that there's nothing left to be done, doesn't have the imagination, or doesn't believe anyone else has the imagination, to come up with the next killer app. This may have been mentioned in the presentation, but what about those people that wear glasses? Will these goggles have the ability to provide corrective vision for the user? If so, then let’s take that to the next level where the user has the ability to magnify their view of an object. One application could be in an operating room environment where they are used to provide a detailed view of the area being operated on along with the ability to record, document and review what the doctor is doing in realtime. The possibilities are almost endless.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Jun 7, 2023 2:45:04 GMT -8
The possibilities are almost endless. FIFY . . .
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Jun 7, 2023 12:24:34 GMT -8
Thanks JD. Great post. Actually, your mention of Home Depot got me thinking. What if a place like HD, or an interior designer, came over to your place and let you remodel your kitchen. you could see what the new kitchen would look like? What about new home developers. They could let you walk through the new house, and change what you wanted before a hammer was swung. There are going to be some innovative new apps out there. We just don't know. Anyone who says that there's nothing left to be done, doesn't have the imagination, or doesn't believe anyone else has the imagination, to come up with the next killer app. This may have been mentioned in the presentation, but what about those people that wear glasses? Will these goggles have the ability to provide corrective vision for the user? If so, then let’s take that to the next level where the user has the ability to magnify their view of an object. One application could be in an operating room environment where they are used to provide a detailed view of the area being operated on along with the ability to record, document and review what the doctor is doing in realtime. The possibilities are almost endless. They covered that briefly. They will sell lenses that are magnetically connected to the eyepieces inside the device for correcting vision. Way way WAY better than the oculus solution. They give a spacer so you can wear your glasses inside. Painful, annoying, and just plain old not comfortable. And nausea inducing.
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