Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 8, 2023 1:17:35 GMT -8
Good morning. Today’s pre-market is green at +0.05% at this moment.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,556
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Post by mark on Jun 8, 2023 5:37:06 GMT -8
I have a gut feeling that the reason the stock is trading this way after a blockbuster, okay potential blockbuster, new product announcement, is because of the long time between announcement and ship date. Other than buzz, there's no metric that stock watchers can use to gauge the "success" of the new product. And anyone can generate buzz, just use the right "buzz"words and it usually works. Recent useful buzzwords are "AI", "VR", "ML", "AR", etc, hey maybe buzzwords have turned into buzzacronyms? LOL. 😅
So, at least for now, it looks like it will trade in the range that traders expected for the sum total of known and shipping products. Maybe no premium for future shipping new products? So, assuming the product is a hit someday, that makes the stock a buy. But, first I have to decide the probability of it being a hit. It's not the kind of thing that will suddenly shoot up into volumes of many millions all at once, the price point precludes that. But if it "exceeds expectations" that may be good enough. Since I don't "play" with shares, I use options instead. But options only go out to Dec '25 at the moment, so I have the added decision to make "will this new product [line] illustrate "success" by that date? It's only 2 1/2 years from now, and that's not much time considering that there will only be 6 to 7 quarters of data on the new product [line] by then.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jun 8, 2023 6:37:10 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 8, 2023 8:07:48 GMT -8
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