Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2023 0:42:59 GMT -8
This Tuesday is starting with a red pre-market at -0.59% at this moment.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2023 0:48:02 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 13, 2023 3:10:21 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Jun 13, 2023 3:48:09 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 13, 2023 4:37:30 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Jun 13, 2023 7:03:14 GMT -8
I’d call it “this is stupid”. Add to that “worthless” “advice”.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,652
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 13, 2023 7:45:23 GMT -8
I’d call it “this is stupid”. Add to that “worthless” “advice”. If you take the emotion out of the situation, what would you do instead if a stock had moved up solidly, but you thought it was near the annual peak? Especially if you are supposed to give advice to others? AAPL will stop moving up at some point, hopefully just temporarily. And a lot of that is based on the market, economy, and geopolitical, along with changes in which part of the market is moving. Looking at the next 6-12 months, I can understand that justification. The other side is expect big upward market moves (possible but probably not very likely), or Apple to sell more than expected (possible, but don't want to bank on it). Butwith pricing often looking 6-12 months out, then over the coming year it would be looking 18-24 months from here. That's a long ways out to making guesses, but with a constant upgrade stream, even if the cycle is extended a little it causes a catch-up period. And assuming switchers and additional users are still coming in, Apple gets more sales. I guess in my mind I'm hopeful that AAPL sees 200 in the coming 3-6 months, but really that isn't that much more than 190. This doesn't seem like the timeline to have a continued strong push up, so then maybe it sits in the 165-185 range for months while conditions improve. Then after that, with a solid base and a lowering of rates that counters the slowing of the economy, then AAPL can push up a bit again. In trying to stay realistic, maybe that means averaging out (from today) to annualized gains of 10-20%, over the coming 2-3 years. It is all just a guess. But I can see that for the middle 60% of probable paths, though maybe someone would apply a 2-5% boost to that guess for Apple's often 5-6% buybacks. That would put UBS's target and sentiment as slightly conservative, but not completely off the rails. But so much of it depends on the market as a whole. At a P/E of ~30 AAPL isn't overpriced, but it's also not at a huge discount.
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