Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 12:32:20 GMT -8
93% of wha? That doesn't sound Fibonacci.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 24, 2012 12:33:15 GMT -8
Ive noticed over the last few weeks, AAPL up, GOOG down or the opposite on many days. Is it possible traders/money is jumping back and forth between the two?
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 24, 2012 12:38:03 GMT -8
Apple set to unveil Personal Pickup program for phones - tonight. Good news. Hopefully this means inventory at stores is about to pick up.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 12:38:53 GMT -8
I think we might be in similar situations, MB. I retired from my job in May, 2010, and do part-time engineering consulting. And my wife also works 3 days per week as a speech therapist, and she provides the health insurance. She would like to leave her job, though she does enjoy working with the kids, it's the adults that make it tough. But it's nice having her income stream coming in, as well as heath insurance, so I try to encourage her whenever she feels bad. But one thing I've found is: when I am working during a 3-4 month part-time gig, I can take these drops in the brokerage account a lot more easily than now, when I am between gigs. I think it might be because I am sub-consciously thinking that trading AAPL is my income when I am between consulting gigs, but not when I am actually doing consulting and bringing in a paycheck. Just something that may help explain why you are feeling the way you are. Rutgers, In 2005 my company moved to North Carolina. I had a magnificent offer on the table to transfer as this place here was closing. Dad was dying and I had to put him in a nursing home. I had a nice 401k, company stock and several other Ira's and taxable accounts. I could not leave him as he is was the only family I had. I took the gamble that I could take my severance, pay off my house and try to make ends meet through my investments in the market. I was 42 then and a lot more daring than I am now at 49. LOL ( I can start drawing a reduced pension at 55 if worse comes to fruition, I have no intent to start that early) I just get frazzled sometimes. If Tammy knew I lost today what would take her many, many years to make I think she would have a fit. Its just the biggie days that shake me, I will decompress and get back to fighting. Today was compounded by leaving myself unprotected on some positions. I posted this Friday that I was seriously concerned about my exposure for today. I thought we had been setup for failure, especially by GM, he really disappointed me with that call for 8 million. The spreads will be OK, those calls were raped. Most all the calls I have naked are still green, just not as green. I added some last week that are red now. That is why I bought some more to average down. Lets just hope we hold that 683 area. I don't even want to think about all the points below it. We did close 1 gap today. I hope that satisfies the EO's.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 12:39:34 GMT -8
This is awesome for me as a potential iPhone 5 buyer, that's for sure. Reserve the phone, buy it in store the next day.
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Post by roni on Sept 24, 2012 12:40:40 GMT -8
I have had worse days. Jan 2013 $680's i bought this morning are green so far. Not worried about Apple fundamentals or my positions The April $750's went below the 10% downside that is my general rule before dumping a position, but I was in a meeting this afternoon. Oh well, not terribly worried about that either. What, me worry?
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 24, 2012 12:41:43 GMT -8
This is awesome for me as a potential iPhone 5 buyer, that's for sure. Reserve the phone, buy it in store the next day. Yep! Though I think you buy up front and then get a refund if you bail the next day.
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 24, 2012 12:43:46 GMT -8
In the quantum realm, it might be both...at the same time. And according to Heisenberg, if we look we will change what might have been. That's why I don't look:
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 12:50:49 GMT -8
93% of wha? That doesn't sound Fibonacci. I really think he means if it drops 7%, which coincidentally is 656. I can imagine that would be very strong support, don't want to find out as I don't have enough cash to beneift from that kind of drop. Or the stomach. I just looked an realized I have lost one of my spreadsheets that follows money flow. Crap what a bad day. (computer issue yesterday)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 12:52:20 GMT -8
Good catch. Mostly the same...I can live with my credit card being charged a little early.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2012 13:06:59 GMT -8
A few thoughts:
1) Perception is reality. Only the Bunnisphere could turn the most successful phone release in history to a negative. This is especially true of the non-analyst talking heads, who simply didn't seem to want to accept analysts' answers today, especially that dick Scott Wapner. Jon Najarian said today a negative reaction to these numbers is "stupid."
Brian Marshall was on today explaining how until a customer gets his actual phone, it doesn't count. Nobody seemed to notice how big this detail is, and dumb bunny Wapner just scoffed.
Hopefully as WS digests these numbers, they will come to their senses tomorrow and Wed.
2) I wish Apple were more open about its methodologies, and if they are going to put out numbers, that they would take some questions on a quick conference call.
3) The big takeaway is we have no idea how many iPhones Apple really sold (see #4), but it is likely a lot more than 5M. How many of you pre-orderers have received your iPhones yet anyway?
4) Government regs (GAAP) meant to make publicly-held corporations more transparent for investors and analysts, did the exact opposite, as is often the case with government regs. Because 2 FedEx trucks might crash, Apple's lawyers have told them to assume all FedEx trucks will crash.
5) All things considered, 690 ain't too bad. Kind of reminds me of July earnings. I have a theory that Q4 2011 brought Apple down to earth, so to speak, and people now realize it is an awesome company that will nonetheless not hit grand slams every time Tim Cook goes to the restroom. If true, this is good thing.
6) Days like these are why I gave up unhedged calls. Sorry for those who didn't, but AAPL will come back.
7) Bought the dip, but by the time I got my ass rolling, we were off the lows of the day, so I didn't buy much (Oct 690-695's, 695-700's), I was unprepared for this.
8) When AAPL rolls up to the iPad Mini release and earnings, we'll be a helluva lot higher than 690.
9) 5 million through Sunday plus those not shipped/delivered plus 7 more days left of customers receiving phones for Q3 iPhone 5 sales.
10) Najarian said Apple will put out revised numbers on Friday. Is this true?
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Post by rob_london on Sept 24, 2012 13:10:08 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:16:55 GMT -8
My bet, we won't get another iPhone sales update until the conference call - and I doubt we'll get any specifics on how many iPhone 5s were sold this quarter beyond the 5M+ in 3 days. (If we _do_ get an update of any kind between then and now, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.) I'm pretty damn sure Apple won't be anywhere near the target 4-6 weeks of channel inventory by fiscal quarter/year-end.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 13:19:56 GMT -8
JD, I doubt very seriously that Apple will report anything else concerning iphones. With a month to go till earnings, Apple has to be careful.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:20:00 GMT -8
Maps _not_ a fail in Greater China? Winningâ„¢!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:20:46 GMT -8
JD, I doubt very seriously that Apple will report anything else concerning iphones. With a month to go till earnings, Apple has to be careful. I thought I heard the "quiet period" is more like a suggestion and industry practice rather than a THOU SHALT NOT SPEAKETH kinda deal. news.cnet.com/2100-1017-271257.html
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 24, 2012 13:25:10 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:31:14 GMT -8
Well, _that_ was a pretty nie article.
Author seems to think, though, that using your subsidy every 2 years isn't the smartest idea.
Uh...no.
iPhone 4 >> 5 = world of difference. As will 5 >> 6. Sure, you have types like me who early upgrade, but in my case, just having a better mobile trading platform makes it worth the cost (which, after resale, is basically the subsidy price anyway). And who said anything about sacrifice? As a 4S >> 5 upgrade intender still on an iPhone 3G "unlimited"***** data plan, I get 2 extra GB of faster data before getting throttled. As long I don't go nuts on multimedia downloads over LTE, I think I'll be fine with that new cap.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 13:31:54 GMT -8
I bought JAN'15 850/900. How do you make that work, with the huge bid/ask spread? What price were you able to get? I just stuck my limit price right in the middle: 12.00
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 13:34:29 GMT -8
I bought JAN'15 850/900. What's the bag # on that bad boy? EDIT: Just took a peek and it looks to be close to a 5 bagger! cheers to the longs JohnG ROI = 316.67% Of course, at the next lower BB WTF sale (whenever it happens), we should be able to pick up the same ROI for lower strikes and closer expirations.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:34:33 GMT -8
Yeah, pretty much. Can take a while with those, though.
So iPad, net add or subtract today? I'm just not feeling too nimble in this market, so I'm kind of defensive for now.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2012 13:36:18 GMT -8
How do you make that work, with the huge bid/ask spread? What price were you able to get? I just stuck my limit price right in the middle: 12.00 That's what I was going bid, but I was waiting to hear what you paid.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 24, 2012 13:37:21 GMT -8
Holy cow... GOOG is at 750. I'm sort of glad they're paving the way into the nosebleed seats. There is no way they can go higher though. They have to split! It's the law of....large stock prices!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:39:57 GMT -8
750 isn't really nosebleed anything when you consider where GOOG has been (rangebound for years).
Bad news for AAPL is often excuse for GOOG to go up, never mind that Android makes about as much money for Google as, I dunno, Kindle for Amazon. GOOG appears to be the old new momo stock. I get technicals, but if I have zero conviction in a stock, I tend not to touch it. (One issue with Redler: His continuing to pump GOOG as high-beta tech of the year when clearly, that title belongs to AAPL - though he chose _GOOG_ so that's what he's got to go with.)
The game is ON if iPad Air ever gets released.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 13:42:47 GMT -8
If the mini iPad is announced - what is the most probable venue and when is that? There was an October date floating around I seem to recall that they hold some type of event each year, no?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:45:28 GMT -8
Music event - done already. This would be something different.
We currently have what looks to be a strong clue between Gruber and Dalrymple, but no real timeframe - more like a guess of October. And the problem is the music event was contemplated for the iPad Air event, and Apple kind of threw that into doubt with the longer-than-normal iPhone 5/Music Event combo keynote.
Someone has to get a "rumor" out there for Dalrymple to yep. And it could be Rene Ritchie from iMore, as was the case for iPhone 5.
Venue is unimportant. The iPhone 4S debuted at the humble Apple Town Hall, and it seemed to sell well enough.
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Post by johng on Sept 24, 2012 13:49:36 GMT -8
What's the bag # on that bad boy? EDIT: Just took a peek and it looks to be close to a 5 bagger! cheers to the longs JohnG ROI = 316.67% Of course, at the next lower BB WTF sale (whenever it happens), we should be able to pick up the same ROI for lower strikes and closer expirations. Thanks to you Lovey I'm finally playing with the "big boys & girls"........ i.e. Spreads! Started with a Jan 670/700 Spread with an ROI of 95% (assuming 700 in late Jan). cheers to the longs JohnG
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 24, 2012 13:50:17 GMT -8
How do you make that work, with the huge bid/ask spread? What price were you able to get? I just stuck my limit price right in the middle: 12.00 I grabbed a few 2015 750/800s for $17.
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Post by rickag on Sept 24, 2012 13:54:56 GMT -8
well yeah its pretty difficult to determine what a stock is going to do on a certain day. Im going to keep some dry powder just in case we see lower. I made 130 bucks today trading apple so im happy. thats more then i make in 8 hours of working *yes i have a crap job and not many skills* Nate, you have a job, a lot of people don't, you are smart to know AAPL long term goes up and that many smart traders are here on this board for helping people like you and me that are new in taking some control of our investments. In my book that is what is important, and good luck trading.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 24, 2012 13:59:53 GMT -8
Holy cow... GOOG is at 750. I'm sort of glad they're paving the way into the nosebleed seats. There is no way they can go higher though. They have to split! It's the law of....large stock prices! Yes, congrats on GOOG parabolically rocketing to crush its all-time high - from 2007.
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