Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 27, 2023 1:15:56 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 27, 2023 4:25:47 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jun 27, 2023 4:28:47 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 547
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Post by ono on Jun 27, 2023 6:20:01 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 547
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Post by ono on Jun 27, 2023 9:56:30 GMT -8
Paging, Artman.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Jun 27, 2023 10:09:03 GMT -8
Ha Ono Touchè
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 185
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Post by aapl on Jun 27, 2023 10:39:43 GMT -8
Hi, any options traders care to comment on the idea of selling Jan 24 covered calls for $210 strike price? Share price has obviously been on a tear which has the PE a bit frothy at 32x. Premium is just over $5.00. Thanks!
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 27, 2023 11:52:44 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH INTRADAY! $188.39
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 27, 2023 12:57:51 GMT -8
Hi, any options traders care to comment on the idea of selling Jan 24 covered calls for $210 strike price? Share price has obviously been on a tear which has the PE a bit frothy at 32x. Premium is just over $5.00. Thanks! Sounds interesting.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 27, 2023 14:16:30 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$188.39All Time Highest TODAY intraday 46,982,317 shares traded today
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,653
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 27, 2023 14:32:11 GMT -8
Hi, any options traders care to comment on the idea of selling Jan 24 covered calls for $210 strike price? Share price has obviously been on a tear which has the PE a bit frothy at 32x. Premium is just over $5.00. Thanks! The part of me looking at the new pricing being only slightly above the old ATH, and the rsi being below 70 (barely) makes me think there is more time to let the price run. It may be greedy, but it seems like there is time in this next ~month to earnings, possible post earnings, or likely pre iPhone 15 annoncement. Guessing is tough, but maybe a double top, up to earnings, down after earnings (there’s always something), and then up to the announcement? With that mindset, I might look to write calls against a small portion of my shares in a few weeks. Nothing crazy. But imo we’re not at crazy levels like a pesky top. Otoh, looking at the chart, it’s been a heck of a 6 month run. schrts.co/HpVFCXzEWhen I looked at option prices 2 weeks ago they didn’t seem excessively high, for writing ones with strikes at about a 20% Apr. (Edit: I’d prefer they were excessively high if writing, just like that first shot to 125. I guess I could see writing some covered calls now, if otherwise looking for a sale at near-current prices. I have an order in now, at 197 or so, on a small amount. But instead I could write calls, and that 210 level is a bit more than 15% out. I wish they were priced higher, and that borrowing rates were lower. Each person is different, and risk and taxes play into it too. Siegel thinks the second half is likely to be flatter, and I would guess at that too in general, for aapl and the market. We’re not in crazy exciting economic times, but more like “it’s not that bad so I should try to get back in a little before everyone else” times. At least that’s how it feels, people being cautiously optimistic while realizing inflation, interest rates, the economy, and jobs are all likely to change. But mostly in small amounts, and mostly in “good for the time” ways and directions.)
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Jun 27, 2023 15:29:08 GMT -8
I am not the one to be listening to about options, but my personal experience has been that writing calls against Apple six months out is not really a very good idea. There are several factors that could send us past 200 in that time frame: the Indian market could take off for one, ( China sales really took off when they rolled out higher-speed internet. Now Apple has a toe in the door, just when Starlink is coming online), and AR might take off. I hardly noticed AR at WWDC, but I was blown away by the broad evolution of all the product lines. The company seems to be moving ahead on all fronts and oh yea, Project Titan. ( sorry bots, were you expecting the C-word?) As we near 200, I think we are in stock-split territory as well, but probably not until early 2024. Selling calls could work, but maybe monthly.
I have been selling calls and puts two weeks out at the 2 Sigma limits of the volatility cone. They have a 65% chance of being exercised. I have had to buy a few back, but what I lose on one, I gain on the other. So I am a fan of hitting singles instead of home runs. It's more work, but more fun and less worry. Good luck though.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,117
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Post by Dave on Jun 28, 2023 2:02:44 GMT -8
Hi, any options traders care to comment on the idea of selling Jan 24 covered calls for $210 strike price? Share price has obviously been on a tear which has the PE a bit frothy at 32x. Premium is just over $5.00. Thanks! This discussion brings up a few questions. Would I be willing to sell aapl at $210 ( $215 with premium) right now? When / if the share price hits $210 will this run that aapl has had continue for much longer without a correction? After all, this bull run that the market is experiencing is against some very strong headwinds and is not likely to continue forever, is it? Our friends at the Federal Reserve are likely to see to it that it doesn’t continue. And then there’s that fear and greed thing, my own. Predicting the future is fun.
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