Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 16, 2013 23:58:57 GMT -8
Whoa, world markets down quite a bit at the moment. US index futures pretty volatile. IMF data spooking investors after all?
Will be interesting to see how INTC trades. Not a great earnings report, and it actually trades at a higher multiple than AAPL.
Reminder: Verizon reports Thursday. Potentially useful iPhone data point on the way.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 17, 2013 3:38:15 GMT -8
Might get ugly again today for AAPL and the broader market.
I've been watching iPad bang her fists on the table for a couple of weeks now suggesting people short something. There is still plenty of opportunity. Just take a look at SPY.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 4:35:34 GMT -8
Given the red futures and CRUS providing a (weak) excuse to pressure AAPL, today's probably the best chance to break $419 before earnings. I say we hold it.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 17, 2013 4:41:15 GMT -8
Heads up - and remember that it is Digitimes reporting/fabricating this but be aware that it's in the news:
iPad mini shipments expected to drop as high as 30% in 2Q13
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 4:49:15 GMT -8
I can understand such concerns shaving off $100 - $150, but $300? I'm inclined to think the volume of options have put institutions on a buyer's strike (in addition to portfolio rebalancing, such as what Fidelity did). Why not $300? Perception has it that Apple missed earnings 3 quarters - in a row. IMO, the only thing that kept AAPL from dropping even further was PO's statement regarding Apple's new method of providing guidance. And how is it that Apple be held responsible for unrealistic expectations, created in part by helium-filled EPS estimates? And if Wall Street can't factor in 13 vs. 14 week quarters, well, it just proves that nothing is dumber than the stock market...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 4:52:47 GMT -8
Heads up - and remember that it is Digitimes reporting/fabricating this but be aware that it's in the news: iPad mini shipments expected to drop as high as 30% in 2Q13Suggests to me that Apple is gearing up for a new iPad mini sooner rather than later. That's IF one believes in the tooth fairy Digitimes. There were reports of new sighting of iPad 5 online yesterday. Whatever the timing of new iPads, they're likely to occur TOGETHER, not separate. The iPad 5 will likely be ready before iPad mini 2 if the latter gets retina. I'm still in the July/August timeframe myself.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 17, 2013 4:53:25 GMT -8
Why not $300? Perception has it that Apple missed earnings 3 quarters - in a row. IMO, the only thing that kept AAPL from dropping even further was PO's statement regarding Apple's new method of providing guidance. And how is it that Apple be held responsible for unrealistic expectations, created in part by helium-filled EPS estimates? And if Wall Street can't factor in 13 vs. 14 week quarters, well, it just proves that nothing is dumber than the stock market... The parabolic growth in revenue and earnings that they were delivering created those unrealistic expectations. Truly a victim of their own success. From 420 to 705 they were priced for that type of continued growth (I don't care what the PE was, that's irrelevant). They haven't delivered as of late, and are facing the consequences. If/when they return to meeting expectations and showing that there is stability in the pipeline, then we will see more fair valuation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 5:10:18 GMT -8
This made me laugh, this morning's stream-of-consciousness by Jim Dalrymple:
Windows Phone chief trash-talks Apple ∞
“With Apple, I sense a lack of urgency,” said Myerson. “When iOS 5 came out and there was a fifth row of icons and not much else, you say, okay, are they running out of steam, is iOS getting boring?”
iOS 5? Fifth row of icons? Way to stay on top of things, Myerson. You’re keeping a sharp eye on the competition, that’s for damn sure.
Maybe the guy whose products are staring at BlackBerry’s butthole should just keep his head down until he’s got something to be cocky about.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 5:12:52 GMT -8
And how is it that Apple be held responsible for unrealistic expectations, created in part by helium-filled EPS estimates? And if Wall Street can't factor in 13 vs. 14 week quarters, well, it just proves that nothing is dumber than the stock market... The parabolic growth in revenue and earnings that they were delivering created those unrealistic expectations. Truly a victim of their own success. From 420 to 705 they were priced for that type of continued growth (I don't care what the PE was, that's irrelevant). They haven't delivered as of late, and are facing the consequences. If/when they return to meeting expectations and showing that there is stability in the pipeline, then we will see more fair valuation. If P/E is irrelevant, then so are the numerator and denominator. In Amazon's case, certainly earnings are irrelevant.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 17, 2013 5:25:28 GMT -8
If P/E is irrelevant, then so are the numerator and denominator. In Amazon's case, certainly earnings are irrelevant. Two entirely different types of companies, which is why P/E is irrelevant. Amazon is priced for future revenue growth and moderate growth of gross margin as they continue their stranglehold of the online marketplace. $125B valuation for the world's top online shopping experience sounds fair to me. Amazon isn't going away, and Bezos is doing his best to grow his company. Apple is a tech company that makes most of its income from a product that very well may not be around in five years. Tech changes so quickly, which scares long-term investors. IMO, they need a new high-margin product with a warm public reception to break out of this funk.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 17, 2013 5:31:16 GMT -8
well here is the break. hold on for the 10th time
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Post by wheeles on Apr 17, 2013 5:34:26 GMT -8
Sigh...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 5:35:41 GMT -8
If P/E is irrelevant, then so are the numerator and denominator. In Amazon's case, certainly earnings are irrelevant. Two entirely different types of companies, which is why P/E is irrelevant. Amazon is priced for future revenue growth and moderate growth of gross margin as they continue their stranglehold of the online marketplace. $125B valuation for the world's top online shopping experience sounds fair to me. Amazon isn't going away, and Bezos is doing his best to grow his company. Apple is a tech company that makes most of its income from a product that very well may not be around in five years. Tech changes so quickly, which scares long-term investors. IMO, they need a new high-margin product with a warm public reception to break out of this funk. Amazon is not priced for the future, it's priced for stardate 43533. Do you realize how many years it's going to have to grow its sales and margin before it earns its current valuation? It's better described as a charitable organization owned by hedge funds.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 5:36:15 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Apr 17, 2013 5:37:49 GMT -8
Brutal.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 17, 2013 5:40:56 GMT -8
Two entirely different types of companies, which is why P/E is irrelevant. Amazon is priced for future revenue growth and moderate growth of gross margin as they continue their stranglehold of the online marketplace. $125B valuation for the world's top online shopping experience sounds fair to me. Amazon isn't going away, and Bezos is doing his best to grow his company. Apple is a tech company that makes most of its income from a product that very well may not be around in five years. Tech changes so quickly, which scares long-term investors. IMO, they need a new high-margin product with a warm public reception to break out of this funk. Amazon is not priced for the future, it's priced for stardate 43533. Do you realize how many years it's going to have to grow its sales and margin before it earns its current valuation? It's better described as a charitable organization owned by hedge funds. Sorry you see it that way. Disagreeing with big money is only going to get you hurt. Think of AMZN this way: Would you rather own AMZN at $125B or MSFT at almost double the valuation? Which future are you more confident in?
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Post by terps530 on Apr 17, 2013 5:42:34 GMT -8
Looks like 400 for earnings. Good earnings which is almost guarantee not happening 450 weak earnings 375-380. Either way both prices are terrible. So why hold any shares going into this earnings? i was thinking about this too, on another front. if earnings beats PO's provided guidance: people say why did PO then say AAPL will report 'within' the range if they are going to then just beat it. wall st pissed that he led them wrong last quarter and punish the stock. if earnings lands in, or misses that range, aapl is garbage and stock tanks more.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 17, 2013 5:44:28 GMT -8
Amazon is not priced for the future, it's priced for stardate 43533. Do you realize how many years it's going to have to grow its sales and margin before it earns its current valuation? It's better described as a charitable organization owned by hedge funds. Sorry you see it that way. Disagreeing with big money is only going to get you hurt. Think of AMZN this way: Would you rather own AMZN at $125B or MSFT at almost double the valuation? Which future are you more confident in? I would not want to own either one of them.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 17, 2013 5:47:47 GMT -8
Sorry you see it that way. Disagreeing with big money is only going to get you hurt. Think of AMZN this way: Would you rather own AMZN at $125B or MSFT at almost double the valuation? Which future are you more confident in? I would not want to own either one of them. Perfectly acceptable also. But don't deny Amazon's potential and what the market sees in it out of stubbornness. Been there, done that. Being a contrarian is usually going to get you killed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2013 5:49:13 GMT -8
Amazon is not priced for the future, it's priced for stardate 43533. Do you realize how many years it's going to have to grow its sales and margin before it earns its current valuation? It's better described as a charitable organization owned by hedge funds. Sorry you see it that way. Disagreeing with big money is only going to get you hurt. Think of AMZN this way: Would you rather own AMZN at $125B or MSFT at almost double the valuation? Which future are you more confident in? My last post on the subject: AMZN is losing money and is burning cash. MSFT has an annuity called OS and Office but with clear problems going forward. I own neither and don't invest in troubled companies. When big money figures out an exit strategy for Amazon, the bag holders will be retail money, not them.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 17, 2013 5:52:01 GMT -8
I would not want to own either one of them. Perfectly acceptable also. But don't deny Amazon's potential and what the market sees in it out of stubbornness. Been there, done that. Being a contrarian is usually going to get you killed. Now about posting for a while and building up some credibility before launching into lecturing?
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Post by appledoc on Apr 17, 2013 5:55:44 GMT -8
Perfectly acceptable also. But don't deny Amazon's potential and what the market sees in it out of stubbornness. Been there, done that. Being a contrarian is usually going to get you killed. Now about posting for a while and building up some credibility before launching into lecturing? I don't mean to be lecturing. Just providing some opposing views that could have saved us all a lot of money since September. If this downswing has taught me anything, it's not to fight the tape. Just go with the flow.
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Post by hellojapan on Apr 17, 2013 6:01:02 GMT -8
Now about posting for a while and building up some credibility before launching into lecturing? I don't mean to be lecturing. Just providing some opposing views that could have saved us all a lot of money since September. If this downswing has taught me anything, it's not to fight the tape. Just go with the flow. You joined a day ago, every post has been negative and with a tone like you have been here for a while, and your username happens to be one letter removed from another individual with a similar posting style.
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Post by BillH on Apr 17, 2013 6:04:55 GMT -8
I would not want to own either one of them. Perfectly acceptable also. But don't deny Amazon's potential and what the market sees in it out of stubbornness. Been there, done that. Being a contrarian is usually going to get you killed. Interesting perspective. My experience is quite the opposite. It's the ONLY thing that's ever made me money.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 17, 2013 6:06:02 GMT -8
I don't mean to be lecturing. Just providing some opposing views that could have saved us all a lot of money since September. If this downswing has taught me anything, it's not to fight the tape. Just go with the flow. You joined a day ago, every post has been negative and with a tone like you have been here for a while, and your username happens to be one letter removed from another individual with a similar posting style. I don't even know who you're referring to, but I promise you that isn't me. I wouldn't equate being realistic to being negative.
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Post by wheeles on Apr 17, 2013 6:13:50 GMT -8
Last one out, turn off the lights.
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Post by podboy on Apr 17, 2013 6:15:19 GMT -8
Volume isn't even high enough to be capitulation version 631. Just a bad day , no real news to cause this either.
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Post by sponge on Apr 17, 2013 6:16:52 GMT -8
Hey I rather get it over with now. Still think this is an over reaction to CRUS and overall market.
Lets see where we are on Monday.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 17, 2013 6:17:49 GMT -8
Volume isn't even high enough to be capitulation version 631. Just a bad day , no real news to cause this either. OTOH: 7 million shares traded in 45 minutes might equal 35-50 million if panic sets in.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 17, 2013 6:18:16 GMT -8
Volume isn't even high enough to be capitulation version 631. Just a bad day , no real news to cause this either. Did you see the CRUS news?
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