aapl
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Post by aapl on Sept 12, 2023 2:39:26 GMT -8
Good Morning! Apple's trading up a bit in the premarkets before today's Apple Event. $179.96 +.60 (+0.33%) Watch the Apple Event at 1pm EST.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 12, 2023 3:32:16 GMT -8
Looks like some nice new features will be coming in iOS 17. I especially like the ability to tell a family member that you are heading out (and it can even notify you if you are going in the wrong direction). Until now, to accomplish that task, I would have to go into messages (or whatsapp) and "share live location" for 15 minutes or an hour. It's nice that it'll become more automated.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Sept 12, 2023 5:09:18 GMT -8
Looks like some nice new features will be coming in iOS 17. I especially like the ability to tell a family member that you are heading out (and it can even notify you if you are going in the wrong direction).Until now, to accomplish that task, I would have to go into messages (or whatsapp) and "share live location" for 15 minutes or an hour. It's nice that it'll become more automated. I could have certainly used that feature in the past, and I'm not just talking about geographically.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 9:01:35 GMT -8
Sometimes it is tempting to buy on a pre-announcement downswing. OTOH, sometimes it hits even lower as the announcement comes out, but before people say "actually that stuff was ok, and Apple is going to sell a decent amount of them".
I'm sure we all have out personal spell-check errors. This week mine is stihl changing to still, after picking up a few new saws. I look like a newbie if I say something about my still 400.
Bring on the announcements! Even if we know most of the iOS stuff from WWDC.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 9:06:07 GMT -8
I wonder how Apple feels about live vs recorded events. I'd expect they practice nearly as much, but there's got to be a higher cost and time commitment to produce it, though it gives more control. If there's a glitch like one of Steve's iPhone problems where he threw it down off the stage and used the next one, they could just redo the take. And that helps with 3rd parties that have a spot on the presentation too.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 12, 2023 9:27:34 GMT -8
Berkshire is still moving up steadily, with all its Apple it owns a lot of insurance companies which are doubling and tripling rated in CA now. I don't know how involved they are in Homeowners ins.. Apple is moving up slightly above what looked to her a bear flag on the daily charts. Still not convinced this is the bottom.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 12, 2023 9:33:06 GMT -8
Surprise!!!
"We're not introducing our most powerful chip ever, instead we've decided to take a step backwards and reduce the power of our chips as the years go by. By 2030, we expect the power of our chips to go down enough that we will have the capability of the old Nokia 3000-series phones." #satire
I've been selling a few Jan '26 puts today. Those that I can get at my ask price. Some years, I forget to do so, but I don't want to forget this year. My crop of puts (110s, 115s) that I sold a few years ago (in 2021) are all going to expire worthless come January '24.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 9:43:58 GMT -8
I've been selling a few Jan '26 puts today. Those that I can get at my ask price. Some years, I forget to do so, but I don't want to forget this year. My crop of puts (110s, 115s) that I sold a few years ago (in 2021) are all going to expire worthless come January '24. What kind of strikes do you look at, and do you attempt to do this writing at relative lows, or just in general this time of the year when the leaps are available? Like anytime I assume one thing is keeping things in check, since you are probably not holding an offsetting amount of cash. But I could see using a portion of my untapped margin as a backstop, as long as I didn't get too greedy and then happen to hit a downturn wrong.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 12, 2023 9:52:01 GMT -8
Put problems come with a sharp downturn, they then destroy any margin you have and you have to sell at a loss to make margin calls, raise cash or whatever. Put spreads give a measure of protection.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 12, 2023 10:00:28 GMT -8
"My crop of puts (110s, 115s) that I sold a few years ago (in 2021) are all going to expire worthless come January '24." The 110's are at 31 cents. Even the 2026 ones are 3-5 dollars with a large spread. I rarely sell puts. But generally when I have 90% of the profit I cash them in. I don't see holding for the final dime as a good risk. Anything can happen. Tim Cook goes off the rails, Aaron Rodgers tears his achilles.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 12, 2023 10:08:50 GMT -8
I've been selling a few Jan '26 puts today. Those that I can get at my ask price. Some years, I forget to do so, but I don't want to forget this year. My crop of puts (110s, 115s) that I sold a few years ago (in 2021) are all going to expire worthless come January '24. What kind of strikes do you look at, and do you attempt to do this writing at relative lows, or just in general this time of the year when the leaps are available? Well, I am only doing it today because someone here reminded me yesterday that the Jan '26 LEAPS became available. I usually like to trade them a week or two in when liquidity is better, but some of them seem to be trading at bargain prices (mostly bargain for writers of options, not so much for buyers of options, hence I am not buying any of the calls yet). There are two kinds of trades I use puts for: 1. Selling puts that appear to be "no brainers" that aren't likely to ever be exercised. 2. Selling puts to purposely purchase stock (Apple taught me how to do this as a few years ago they once contracted with a large wall street firm to do so for them as part of their share repurchase program). BUT, in any and all cases, I always sell puts such that the price, if assigned, is a price I am willing to pay for shares. Always! I do not play with options that are very high priced due to being deep in the money already. The nice thing about Jan '26 LEAPS is that it is more than 2 years away. If we hit a downturn that is 2 years long, we will have bigger problems than having to buy a little stock at higher than prevailing prices. Put problems come with a sharp downturn, they then destroy any margin you have and you have to sell at a loss to make margin calls, raise cash or whatever. Put spreads give a measure of protection. I've mentioned this before, but I only use options to "play", not to invest. This is because I don't like playing with my shares. I want to keep my shares without trading them (and incurring huge capital gains taxes). So whenever I want to play, I use options instead. But the numbers are tiny compared to my share holdings. It's really all just for fun. "My crop of puts (110s, 115s) that I sold a few years ago (in 2021) are all going to expire worthless come January '24." The 110's are at 31 cents. Even the 2026 ones are 3-5 dollars with a large spread. I rarely sell puts. But generally when I have 90% of the profit I cash them in. I don't see holding for the final dime as a good risk. Anything can happen. Tim Cook goes off the rails, Aaron Rodgers tears his achilles. I do sometimes sell (exit the trade) at 95% of maximum gain. For example, I exited some 140s at 95% a few weeks/months ago. And I exited a spread at 95% (as I mentioned in a comment here back then). But for 110s and 115s? Why even bother, there is such a tiny chance that they won't expire worthless, so may as well wait. I just noticed that I also have some Sep 15, 2023 115 puts as well, that are expiring worthless this weekend. Those were sold in Sep and Oct '21 and in May '22.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 10:36:00 GMT -8
What kind of strikes do you look at, and do you attempt to do this writing at relative lows, or just in general this time of the year when the leaps are available? Well, I am only doing it today because someone here reminded me yesterday that the Jan '26 LEAPS became available. I usually like to trade them a week or two in when liquidity is better, but some of them seem to be trading at bargain prices (mostly bargain for writers of options, not so much for buyers of options, hence I am not buying any of the calls yet). There are two kinds of trades I use puts for: 1. Selling puts that appear to be "no brainers" that aren't likely to ever be exercised. 2. Selling puts to purposely purchase stock (Apple taught me how to do this as a few years ago they once contracted with a large wall street firm to do so for them as part of their share repurchase program). BUT, in any and all cases, I always sell puts such that the price, if assigned, is a price I am willing to pay for shares. Always! I do not play with options that are very high priced due to being deep in the money already. So I didn't catch it. Are you using current ATM prices, taking into account a likely 10-25% annualized appreciation in the stock price. Or are you taking an additional discount off of the current price, say 10 or 20%, figuring that gives you some safety margin so that in case things dip in the medium term and the puts are in the money for a bit, that someone doesn't surprise you by cashing them in early. Just wondering, though you probably do a mix of strikes. I wrote some 140 puts back when AAPL was down at 140, with your mindset that I would be happy to buy shares at the ~135 total if it came to that. They might be Decembers....I haven't worried about them much for a while. So the stock dipped below 175 but is recovering. I'd give more than 50% odds at 180 or greater by Friday. I'm not placing anything on that, but this seems like one of those times where the stock behaves like bad things are going to happen, and yet it really didn't. And look at those iPhone price increases!!! (sarcasm)
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 11:22:25 GMT -8
Fun times learning a new interface with the move to Schwab. Though I see a few things I like, even if it's not all yet intuitive.
I wrote some '26's puts at a strike of 175. Looks like small volume around most strikes, but a little more at 150 and 145. These 3 would give total cost of shares roughly at 155, 138 and 135.
No need to talk about specific strikes during the trading day if you are still trying to complete orders and are worried people or bots are watching. But it was fun watching my 175 order at just above the average price. A smaller order came marching towards it, 10 cents at a time every 5-15 seconds, but when it got close (20 or 30 cents) it disappeared. It started again, all while the stock price was going down just a little. But then I lowered my price per share by a dime, to about what the average between the bid/ask was before my order was in, and it was grabbed up immediately.
It's just fun to see how it all works. I'm fine with it as long as I get a price I want, and I put the initial order up a dime, so it all just balanced with what I wanted.
Good luck out there. For others that haven't done this much and start thinking about it, remember to go easy. AAPL and the market could drop. I was already thinking about buying some more shares today, and did in a Roth with dividends that were sitting, but I'm fine with potentially buying a little more in the future at 155 instead of today at 175.
Looks like I have puts I wrote at a strike of 150 (I previously wrote when the stock was in the 140-150 range) expiring on Friday for a decent gain, and then a few Jan '25 140's too. And now these Jan '26 175's.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 12, 2023 12:58:22 GMT -8
"Fun times learning a new interface with the move to Schwab. Though I see a few things I like, even if it's not all yet intuitive."
I have some accounts in IRA with Schwab and never like the interface. TD which is being bought by CS is fantastic. CS will not use the TD interface, did the same with Options Express which they bought years ago. I don't trade with the thinkorswim platform but may as my understands that CS will keep it.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 13:12:47 GMT -8
"Fun times learning a new interface with the move to Schwab. Though I see a few things I like, even if it's not all yet intuitive." I have some accounts in IRA with Schwab and never like the interface. TD which is being bought by CS is fantastic. CS will not use the TD interface, did the same with Options Express which they bought years ago. I don't trade with the thinkorswim platform but may as my understands that CS will keep it. Our 9 accounts all got rolled over to CS over labor day weekend. A nice thing was that we already had a Donor Advised Fund through them, and so they connected everything for us. It's worked well. And though I need to rename accounts, they were all easy to switch between. Options data showed me a bit more, and their filtering of options was a bit better. Some of this may have been as good or better on think or swim, but that choice came around once I switched to making very few trades, and so I never used it. But I was looking up some options quotes, and it wasn't obvious to me to switch over to buying/selling the options I was looking at. There's lots of ways to do the same thing, so one particular interface is not necessarily better than another. It is nice if it is intuitive, but part is just getting used to it. Admittedly I never liked e-trade or IB either, so it could just be that I'm only liking what I use the most and am used to. Good to see AAPL made it off the lows. I'm expecting a bounce over the next few days to weeks as long as marketwide issues don't push things down. Gas prices might not make an enormous difference, but seeing $6.29/gallon for the cheapest stuff at the cheapest local station is something people see every time they drive past, and can affect sentiment. Luckily most cities don't have prices quite this high.
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Post by incorrigible on Sept 12, 2023 13:47:32 GMT -8
After watching the presentation today I have to admit I don't like the pre-recorded format. The live presentations and audience reaction/feedback is sorely missed IMO.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 14:51:32 GMT -8
After watching the presentation today I have to admit I don't like the pre-recorded format. The live presentations and audience reaction/feedback is sorely missed IMO. I think there are plusses and minuses. They couldn't do some of the stuff, including the long-format skit type stuff (mother nature), many of the scenes, and most of the cuts from scene to scene, in real time on a stage. And while it might be to excess, I think as a company it is good to show lots of people and basically give kudos by giving them a piece. The pieces aren't perfect. The rock climbing woman talking about the Ultra was working on smiling and had some strange arm motions. But does that matter? Not really. But giving so many people a little piece helps show that this company is not just a CEO, but a whole huge team with all sorts of areas. As a team building and employee retention thing, I imagine that it is a positive thing. It's just different. And while the applause might be lacking, that probably nicks up to 5 minutes off the "show". Compared to watching the live event, it might be a draw. Compared to actually being at the announcement or keynote, which then includes many of the people writing stories about the announcement, I think a live event would have much more energy and "distortion field", even without SJ being the one giving the keynote.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 12, 2023 17:45:02 GMT -8
Fun times learning a new interface with the move to Schwab. Though I see a few things I like, even if it's not all yet intuitive. I wrote some '26's puts at a strike of 175. Looks like small volume around most strikes, but a little more at 150 and 145. These 3 would give total cost of shares roughly at 155, 138 and 135. No need to talk about specific strikes during the trading day if you are still trying to complete orders and are worried people or bots are watching. But it was fun watching my 175 order at just above the average price. A smaller order came marching towards it, 10 cents at a time every 5-15 seconds, but when it got close (20 or 30 cents) it disappeared. It started again, all while the stock price was going down just a little. But then I lowered my price per share by a dime, to about what the average between the bid/ask was before my order was in, and it was grabbed up immediately. It's just fun to see how it all works. I'm fine with it as long as I get a price I want, and I put the initial order up a dime, so it all just balanced with what I wanted. Good luck out there. For others that haven't done this much and start thinking about it, remember to go easy. AAPL and the market could drop. I was already thinking about buying some more shares today, and did in a Roth with dividends that were sitting, but I'm fine with potentially buying a little more in the future at 155 instead of today at 175. Looks like I have puts I wrote at a strike of 150 (I previously wrote when the stock was in the 140-150 range) expiring on Friday for a decent gain, and then a few Jan '25 140's too. And now these Jan '26 175's. The trading in the first few days after LEAPS appear is often "weird". Seems like some players have all sorts of techniques to move the bids and asks around, as you observed the stairstepping and elevatoring on the 175s. I had orders in for 145, 150, 160, and in the end only the 145 and 160 orders executed. ... in case things dip in the medium term and the puts are in the money for a bit, that someone doesn't surprise you by cashing them in early. This is HIGHLY unlikely because it is economically irrational. Those puts will have some time value in them, and exercising them early makes the owner of those puts lose the time value entirely. Rather than exercising them, selling them and buying stock at the prevailing price would result in a higher total value for the owner of those puts.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 18:53:56 GMT -8
... in case things dip in the medium term and the puts are in the money for a bit, that someone doesn't surprise you by cashing them in early. This is HIGHLY unlikely because it is economically irrational. Those puts will have some time value in them, and exercising them early makes the owner of those puts lose the time value entirely. Rather than exercising them, selling them and buying stock at the prevailing price would result in a higher total value for the owner of those puts. While that is true, that they should just sell the options to retain the time value, I have had times where things have been called away early. I can't remember the full specifics at the moment, but I think the time value portion was .25-.50 a share, and yet it was positive so the rational thing to have done would have been for them to trade it instead of exercising it.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 12, 2023 19:06:41 GMT -8
FWIW, we at least occasionally have larger readership totals. Sometimes it might just be bots cataloging everything, like when I mentioned posting our URL on the proboards support page and then seeing an unusually higher volume for that day.
But today is different, being a keynote/announcement day. And we have a new member, hamlet.
Here's today's stats:
For all those reading as guests, log in and join in on the fun. I know I'd like to hear what features people like, and if there are some new features that people don't care about. Especially since I was watching the announcement, but then got distracted during some of the more important parts.
And I really am surprised JD didn't log in. I mean some of the parts of the announcement seemed like they were just for egging him on. But even if it wasn't Mother Nature that did it, I thought the anti-leather was a bit much, but that's probably me naively not knowing if beef cows produce top quality leather, or if there is some other type of cow not already being "processed" that gets used just for the leather.
Like was said a couple weeks back, the varying colors for the iPhones and Watches don't make or break it for me. But if it helps make the sale with other folks, especially if it's additional sales, then all the better.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 13, 2023 8:37:54 GMT -8
And I really am surprised JD didn't log in. I mean some of the parts of the announcement seemed like they were just for egging him on. But even if it wasn't Mother Nature that did it, I thought the anti-leather was a bit much, but that's probably me naively not knowing if beef cows produce top quality leather, or if there is some other type of cow not already being "processed" that gets used just for the leather. What can you say about the climate religion nonsense? That Steve is rolling over in in his grave? That it isn't helping the bottom line at a time when iPhone sales are shrinking YoY? That Tim should keep his eye on the ball instead of woke BS? That cows are yummy and I'll eat them and wrap my phones in them to the day I die, and I won't eat ze bugs? Fortunately I don't watch these silly videos anymore, absent some major product announcement like Vision Pro. Aside from the woke nonsense, yes, the lack of live action makes them less exciting and organic. Then again, Tim could put coffee to sleep, so professionally edited is probably best.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 13, 2023 9:14:53 GMT -8
This is HIGHLY unlikely because it is economically irrational. Those puts will have some time value in them, and exercising them early makes the owner of those puts lose the time value entirely. Rather than exercising them, selling them and buying stock at the prevailing price would result in a higher total value for the owner of those puts. While that is true, that they should just sell the options to retain the time value, I have had times where things have been called away early. I can't remember the full specifics at the moment, but I think the time value portion was .25-.50 a share, and yet it was positive so the rational thing to have done would have been for them to trade it instead of exercising it. Calls are different! Sometimes it's worth exercising a call on ex-div day to "capture" the dividend. Indeed that happened to me a few times over the years on short calls which were the top of a bull call spread that I owned. And, in all cases, I purchased the necessary shares rather than liquidate existing shares with a very low basis. For example, on 8/6/2014, someone exercised 70 of the $71.43 options (was $500 before the 7:1 split) and on 8/7/14 I had to buy 7000 shares at $95.08 to deliver, and on 8/14/14 I had to pay the dividend of $0.47/share. Of course, when the next dividend rolled around on 11/5/14, I did the same thing and exercised the lower half of the former BCS. It was $57.14 (was $400 before the split). And, of course, there are those very rare occurrences of ignorant/inexperienced/innumerate people exercising options uneconomically.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 13, 2023 9:39:02 GMT -8
While that is true, that they should just sell the options to retain the time value, I have had times where things have been called away early. I can't remember the full specifics at the moment, but I think the time value portion was .25-.50 a share, and yet it was positive so the rational thing to have done would have been for them to trade it instead of exercising it. Calls are different! Sometimes it's worth exercising a call on ex-div day to "capture" the dividend. Indeed that happened to me a few times over the years on short calls which were the top of a bull call spread that I owned. And, in all cases, I purchased the necessary shares rather than liquidate existing shares with a very low basis. For example, on 8/6/2014, someone exercised 70 of the $71.43 options (was $500 before the 7:1 split) and on 8/7/14 I had to buy 7000 shares at $95.08 to deliver, and on 8/14/14 I had to pay the dividend of $0.47/share. Of course, when the next dividend rolled around on 11/5/14, I did the same thing and exercised the lower half of the former BCS. It was $57.14 (was $400 before the split). And, of course, there are those very rare occurrences of ignorant/inexperienced/innumerate people exercising options uneconomically. That makes sense. Mine was a bull call spread too, but it looks like 8-12-14, though that might be the settlement date that I noted on my taxes folder. I rebought the next day, but didn't know to mark them against each other, and decided I was ready to pay taxes on gains anyways. It still seems the logical thing to do would be to sell the calls and buy shares to get the dividend. I think the options were still worth half or more of the dividend. But Puts wouldn't have this problem. Thanks for clarifying.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 13, 2023 10:06:19 GMT -8
And I really am surprised JD didn't log in. I mean some of the parts of the announcement seemed like they were just for egging him on. But even if it wasn't Mother Nature that did it, I thought the anti-leather was a bit much, but that's probably me naively not knowing if beef cows produce top quality leather, or if there is some other type of cow not already being "processed" that gets used just for the leather. What can you say about the climate religion nonsense? That Steve is rolling over in in his grave? That it isn't helping the bottom line at a time when iPhone sales are shrinking YoY? That Tim should keep his eye on the ball instead of woke BS? That cows are yummy and I'll eat them and wrap my phones in them to the day I die, and I won't eat ze bugs? Fortunately I don't watch these silly videos anymore, absent some major product announcement like Vision Pro. Aside from the woke nonsense, yes, the lack of live action makes them less exciting and organic. Then again, Tim could put coffee to sleep, so professionally edited is probably best. I knew you had to be out there somewhere. Maybe the thing to remember is that each person has different things that draw them to buying or upgrading an Apple item. Personally, I don't really care what the latest trendy color is, but some people must. While I think there really truly are a lot of people out there that care about those woke things that Apple is pushing, there is the question of how many additional sales it makes vs how much time, effort, and money the whole thing takes. But that's looking at it only in a bottom line sense, forgetting the other beneficial things coming from it, and forgetting about Apple's past push in environmental areas that has gone back 20+ years. The first few years I sent to shareholder meetings, in the 98-00 range, there were green peace protestors outside the Infinite Loop campus. It wasn't too long after that when Steve started pushing some of these basic concepts that often overlap with being good financial choices, of using smaller and lighter shipping containers, using recycled material, and recycling used Apple stuff. And using solar, especially onsite solar, is an obvious solution to the rolling blackouts the Cupertino campus faced in 2000/2001. It's not really new, but iterative, just like most products by all companies these days. You don't hear "Dude, let's put 5 wheels on a car!". It would be nice to know what sort of premium Apple is paying for all of these things combined, but it is part of who they are and what they have done consistently over at least the last 2 decades. And while I might not think that so much of their presentation needs to be about their environmental pushes, they find it important and want to talk about it, and I respect that. Even if I don't think a Watch band made with recycled material needs to have flakes of color in it to remind everyone of it (though the "each one is unique" might help with the few that might get vocal about the shade of different lots of bands being slightly different).
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Post by hledgard on Sept 13, 2023 12:36:45 GMT -8
I think that JD has an excellent point. Be careful with this whole woke thing. There is a market out there, and to some it is a new religion.
But as JD points out, Apple should just try to make the best possible phone. And, we should add, best possible computer and iPad, and integrate them well.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 13, 2023 12:49:14 GMT -8
... the lack of live action makes them less exciting and organic. Then again, Tim could put coffee to sleep, so professionally edited is probably best. It's kind of true. There is nobody like Steve Jobs! When Steve did the show, it always felt organic, when Tim does the show, even live, it feels scripted. Steve had two advantages, he had an infectious "big" personality, and the ability to still keep new things secret. Today for some reason they can't keep anything secret anymore (I suppose too much money flowing around out there to lower level people that know many of the details) so there can't be any more "one more thing" comments.
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