chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Sept 13, 2023 6:08:20 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Sept 13, 2023 6:21:12 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Sept 13, 2023 7:33:53 GMT -8
Some quick thoughts and questions from yesterday’s event.
1. Does anyone here have thoughts on the gaming emphasis for the Pro models? I am not a gamer, so I can’t form an opinion on being able to play console-level games on your phone. Will gamers care?
2. I have the Ultra Watch 1. I don’t think the 2 has enough differences to upgrade to it.
3. I have the iPhone 14 Pro. The 15 Pro doesn’t look like a big enough upgrade to get it. I am seriously considering the Pro Max, because of the 5x telephoto. I have always thought that it’s too big to be comfortable, so I’m currently playing with a cardboard cutout to see how its size feels. I do admit to being a sucker for titanium. Might do natural titanium if I do upgrade, but that would be a tough call on color.
These phones are on an incremental upgrade path. A mature product. That reality seemingly disappoints investors. And gimmicks like flip phones don’t change that reality IMO.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,634
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 13, 2023 7:47:21 GMT -8
Fun with options again. I wrote another 20 Jan '26 175's, finishing what I wanted to write yesterday, but getting a bit more for them. The prices were jumping around again, but this is at a slow pace instead of high speed trader quickness. One theory is that this is like a matador, waving around his cape and trying to get attention, moving both the price but also the midpoint. Another is that it could trigger spreads, or even be part of someone trying to buy/sell ones. Today's mover was showing a decent size of 102, but FWIW my ask of 20 was only showing up at 2, so I don't know if schwab was hiding the full order or if there is a bug. The same thing happened yesterday, part of the time. The Jan '26's aren't showing up on Yahoo yet. I imagine other seldom or sometimes traders do what I do, of not normally logging into their brokerage, and instead just check prices on things like the stock app or Yahoo. I think most people on this site that use options have a long history with them and understand them a bit more, using them as a tool instead of a lottery ticket. Yesterday I read an article on the stock app from WSJ that talked about all of the new people getting into options, how much higher the volume is from a few years ago, and how many are using them for the equivalent of lottery tickets. The website wants me to log in, but the article is at Amateurs Pile into 24-hour options: "It's Just Gambling"In general it points out the same things that some of the game stop "investors" were doing, basically that some are getting big and sloppy with their choices after making some nice gains (these are the people willing to be interviewed), while we know there are many that have lost. I can understand that flawed mindset, have seen it happen with others, and if AAPL hadn't come back some of these times I probably would have stubbornly stayed in it through further declines just as I did with some big AAPL options positions long ago. OTOH, the realization that many are considering this a lottery ticket or casino is what makes the other side of the trade work. "The house always wins". So be the house. That's not to say that is the only way to win. Basically you have to see good odds and have conviction when others don't. Just like buying AAPL when near the 129 low, even if that meant at 130, 140 or 150, you could also buy or write options when others think the outlook is dour. Fun times. Congrats to the longs, and to the people who manage to be successful with the middle term or shorter term trades too.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,634
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 13, 2023 8:03:56 GMT -8
Some quick thoughts and questions from yesterday’s event. 1. Does anyone here have thoughts on the gaming emphasis for the Pro models? I am not a gamer, so I can’t form an opinion on being able to play console-level games on your phone. Will gamers care? 2. I have the Ultra Watch 1. I don’t think the 2 has enough differences to upgrade to it. 3. I have the iPhone 14 Pro. The 15 Pro doesn’t look like a big enough upgrade to get it. I am seriously considering the Pro Max, because of the 5x telephoto. I have always thought that it’s too big to be comfortable, so I’m currently playing with a cardboard cutout to see how its size feels. I do admit to being a sucker for titanium. Might do natural titanium if I do upgrade, but that would be a tough call on color. These phones are on an incremental upgrade path. A mature product. That reality seemingly disappoints investors. And gimmicks like flip phones don’t change that reality IMO. On gaming, I think most of the people doing higher end gaming on an iPhone are young. And they might be a different segment than those who upgrade to a Pro for the very best camera options. But it is also a good way to demo how fast a processor is. Many things on an iPhone just don't need so much processor time, and you can only sell to so many pro or aspirationally pro movie makers that need/want real time high end effects. I wish we had good stats on how many people actually upgrade a Watch or iPhone after 1/2/3/4/5 years. I've heard of some doing it after a year, even if it wasn't to pass the old one to a family member, and I saw that figure listed once. But my feeling is that it's fairly small, maybe 10% but possibly up to 20%. But the big bubble of users, maybe 60-70%, is probably at that 2 vs 3 year range for the iPhone. And that is where a big difference could be made, switching someone from a 3 year cycle to a 2 year cycle. Annualizing it, that's going from .33 to .5, so a 50% increase. THAT'S HUGE!!!!!! I don't really even have a guess at the Watch, especially the Ultra. I don't have one yet, though one of each of our parents do. There's a lot of room for adoption there, and the SOS, fall detection, and heart issue detection should help get things moving, but it all takes time. Either way, it seems like on the iPhone and Watch that one comparison is not just the YOY one, but looking maybe over 2 model versions. I think the new iPhone Pro has enough improvements, but it has even more if you compare from 2 years ago. What do people here do? Do you normally or sometimes upgrade each year, even if it's not just to pass the old one through to a family member? And how long are you going between upgrades on an Apple Watch? What timeframe are you seeing other people upgrade their iPhone or Watch?
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 13, 2023 8:04:53 GMT -8
"Apple Investors Already Hate The New iPhone 15 More Than Ever" This very lame article neglects to mention the stupid rumor that caused the "worst sell-off before an iPhone event ever," instead seemingly blaming incremental iPhones and Apple itself for such poor performance. Da hell?
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Post by Lstream on Sept 13, 2023 8:14:42 GMT -8
"Apple Investors Already Hate The New iPhone 15 More Than Ever" This very lame article neglects to mention the stupid rumor that caused the "worst sell-off before an iPhone event ever," instead seemingly blaming incremental iPhones and Apple itself for such poor performance. Da hell? So you have an expectation that “journalism” should be accurate and fair, instead of trolling for page hits with provocative bull-shit headlines? How quaint of you .
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Post by Lstream on Sept 13, 2023 8:17:38 GMT -8
I have been upgrading my phone every year, but I think that is not the norm at all. I am a sucker for gadgets. I have normally been 2-3 years with the Watch. The Ultra was an exception since I wanted it for diving.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 13, 2023 9:55:31 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Sept 13, 2023 10:01:06 GMT -8
Thanks for that China link. Someone made some serious money by propagating a lie. I would like to see an investigation on who that is.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 13, 2023 10:42:53 GMT -8
Thanks for that China link. Someone made some serious money by propagating a lie. I would like to see an investigation on who that is. Wait, you expect the SEC to investigate every obvious stock manipulation resulting in a $100 billion decline in valuation of the world's biggest company? How quaint.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 13, 2023 11:52:56 GMT -8
The 7 day RSI is approaching oversold. Maybe the next couple days will see the 14 day get down there?
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Post by Lstream on Sept 13, 2023 13:00:36 GMT -8
Thanks for that China link. Someone made some serious money by propagating a lie. I would like to see an investigation on who that is. Wait, you expect the SEC to investigate every obvious stock manipulation resulting in a $100 billion decline in valuation of the world's biggest company? How quaint. Touché! Well played.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Sept 13, 2023 13:09:40 GMT -8
The story was indeed absolute BS. BUT, even with that fact out, the stock hasn't begun to recover, and in fact dropped a bit more after the news came out (that it was BS). So obviously something else is causing it to drop. Fun with options again. I wrote another 20 Jan '26 175's, finishing what I wanted to write yesterday, but getting a bit more for them. The prices were jumping around again, but this is at a slow pace instead of high speed trader quickness. One theory is that this is like a matador, waving around his cape and trying to get attention, moving both the price but also the midpoint. Another is that it could trigger spreads, or even be part of someone trying to buy/sell ones. Today's mover was showing a decent size of 102, but FWIW my ask of 20 was only showing up at 2, so I don't know if schwab was hiding the full order or if there is a bug. The same thing happened yesterday, part of the time. I was also planning on selling some more of them today, but I was out of the house all day and just got home. Too late ... options market is closed for the day. I suppose I'll try again tomorrow if I'm home.
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