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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2013 10:12:06 GMT -8
I'm not sure that I understand arguments about TC announcing that new products will be coming the end of this year and all of next year. There is no law that says Apple can't introduce new products tomorrow just because TC said otherwise. I remember when Steve Jobs said that a Mac would never run Windows because the boot system couldn't be made to work with Windows. Two weeks later (or less) Apple announced the new capability. In my opinion, TC would be failing in his job if he allowed demand for existing product to dry up because of an immanent rumored new release. Better to put off expectations, allow people to continue buying existing products, and release when Apple is ready to release. Did Steve say that on a conference call? I think stuff said on a conference call is important.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 24, 2013 10:15:57 GMT -8
Sold? Hm?
415 isn't required in my book. Green is a start from a higher low point of view.
This is the day after earnings. Wild price variation is to be expected. Where we end up today and where we are Friday tells a better story than "must hit 415 close". By that logic, must hit 430 AH peak high. Hey, it should all count right mace?
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 10:23:25 GMT -8
"must hit +705"
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 10:23:38 GMT -8
Remember, we just sold off 50 points in less than 7 full trading days. A bounce is due here, and we're getting it like I expected. Not expecting a new low until this finishes in the 420s.
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 10:29:01 GMT -8
Looking forward to the 420's so that we can set a new low : \
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 24, 2013 10:35:28 GMT -8
Because it is written.
Well, no. It's one of many EW doorways.
Micro support >> 405ish, 400ish
Semi-resistance >> 420, considerable resistance in the high 420s-low 430s
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Post by pauls on Apr 24, 2013 10:43:37 GMT -8
It's doubtful TC is sandbagging on new product timing. Or guidance. Nor is he overstating the promise of new services. All in all a great and informative CC and I agree with others-- today would be a lot worse without buy back plan. Brighter days ahead!
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Post by mace on Apr 24, 2013 10:48:23 GMT -8
Sold? Hm? 415 isn't required in my book. Green is a start from a higher low point of view. This is the day after earnings. Wild price variation is to be expected. Where we end up today and where we are Friday tells a better story than "must hit 415 close". By that logic, must hit 430 AH peak high. Hey, it should all count right mace? Simple fib. Need to rise by 1.618 so zigzag is not likely. $385 to $400 = $15; $385 is low on Apr 19, $400 is the HoD. 1.618 of $15 = $24 $391 + $24 = $415; $391 is low on Apr 22. So $385 to now can be either a zigzag or 123 of an impulse. If third wave is more than 1.618 of first wave, zigzag is unlikely.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 24, 2013 10:54:14 GMT -8
Travis Lewis's latest tweet does the math to show that the big buyback will add about 10 cents to EPS number each quarter. Again, I'm skeptical that this really helps that much. At a PE of 15, that's an extra $1.50 in share price each quarter.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 24, 2013 10:59:56 GMT -8
So where are all the "Apple needs to return cash to shareholders or else" people today? Now that Apple is returning cash to shareholders, has it helped the stock? Seems like we're kind of in the same place we would have been without that, considering a small beat to earnings and blah guidance. Introducing a dividend last spring coincided with the beginning of the end for AAPL's stock performance. Sure, there's correlation there instead of causality.... but still, I don't see how it has helped. I'm right here. Are you honestly making a judgement based on one day of trading? By the way, my guess would be that the stock would have completely tanked without the cash announcement. Relatively poor earnings, terrible margins and atrocious guidance, yet the stock is up.
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Post by nathanstevens on Apr 24, 2013 11:09:57 GMT -8
Services revenues grew 12% sequentially (3.7B to 4.1B). 300M iCloud users. No new products until fall does not necessarily mean no new services until fall.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 24, 2013 11:20:00 GMT -8
No one says they can't surprise us with a new product sooner than expected and throw off all of our timing. I actually wish they would. Someone like Jobs was much more cagey at that stuff....not sure TC is the type. Somehow we need to infuse excitement back into this marriage!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 11:55:39 GMT -8
No one says they can't surprise us with a new product sooner than expected and throw off all of our timing. I actually wish they would. Someone like Jobs was much more cagey at that stuff....not sure TC is the type. Somehow we need to infuse excitement back into this marriage! New Macs in July or bust. But the "exciting new products" are coming in the fall; I don't think we should be second guessing Tim Cook on this one.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 11:58:11 GMT -8
No one says they can't surprise us with a new product sooner than expected and throw off all of our timing. I actually wish they would. Someone like Jobs was much more cagey at that stuff....not sure TC is the type. Somehow we need to infuse excitement back into this marriage! New Macs in July or bust. But the "exciting new products" are coming in the fall; I don't think we should be second guessing Tim Cook on this one. I'm due for a new Mac. Would be nice if they roll out a new line in July.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 24, 2013 12:11:46 GMT -8
TD is showing two headlines for the same article: 1. Samsung Says Limited Supply Across All Countries for S 4 2. Samsung Says Galaxy S 4 Delays in U.S. Related to Demand
Last update: 4/24/2013 1:31:46 PM By Thomas Gryta Some U.S. wireless carriers are facing delays in selling Samsung Electronics Co.'s (005930.SE, SSNHY) latest flagship smartphone in the U.S. for the second year in a row.
Both T-Mobile USA and Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) said they would start selling the phone at least days later than expected because of Samsung's inventory issues, a setback for the South Korean handset maker as it seeks to grow further its popular Galaxy smartphone line.
Samsung has poured billions of dollars into marketing itself around the world, sometimes targeting rival Apple Inc. (AAPL), and unveiled the Galaxy S 4 to much fanfare in New York last month. The electronics giant is citing unexpected demand for the Galaxy S 4 as causing the pushbacks, similar to the reason given for a delay in launching its predecessor last year.
"It has put constraint on the initial supply. It is varying by country and carrier," said Samsung spokeswoman Teri Daley, who noted that the company is launching the device simultaneously around the world. She said the company expects to have a full supply channel in the U.S. by early May, adding that there is "limited supply across all countries" for the phone. Ms. Daley said that different carriers are deciding to move forward with their launch, while others are waiting until there is enough supply to fulfill demand. T-Mobile USA, a unit of Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGY, DTE.XE), had initially intended to begin selling the phone online Wednesday and in some stores on May 1. Now, the carrier will start online sales on April 29, bring it to "select" stores on May 8 and expects to have it in all stores by May 15 as it receives additional inventory from Samsung. Sprint had expected to begin selling the device in stores on April 27, but said it will be "slightly delayed" because of "unexpected inventory challenges from Samsung." It will begin selling it online and through phone orders on April 27, with stores getting the devices as "inventory becomes available." AT&T Inc. (T) said it is moving forward with selling the device beginning on April 27 and declined to comment on supply details. Verizon Wireless said Wednesday that will start selling the S 4 on May 30. Last year, the carrier began selling the S III after its rivals, citing its practices of rigorous phone testing and making sure it has adequate inventory to fill its stores.
just highlighted some dates on when it will be in stores.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 24, 2013 12:23:48 GMT -8
S3 was successful, so of course S4 will have a nice launch and a good year. It'll take some doing for HTC to make up lost ground with the One X.
Given that smartphones are an eternal game of leapfrog, it's more important to evaluate Apple's response when it ships than to bemoan Samsung "beating Apple to the punch" or something like that.
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 24, 2013 12:38:45 GMT -8
Mark - I get that. But the proportionate amount is not all that much compared to the hullabaloo surrounding it. By my calculations, unless AAPL were to drop a lot further, the most the buyback would increase EPS is 15% over 2.5 years, so around 5% a year. That's not nothing, but it's meager considering earnings might drop 10-20% this fiscal year, and the stock has dropped almost 50% in six months. Could they have deployed 50b in a way that would earn more than 5% return a year? Please correct me if my math is wrong. I'm not sure about my math either, but let's assume that the buyback will result in 15% higher reported earnings. Without a buyback, to increase earnings by 15%, or an extra ~$6B. So the question is, could they invest $50B and earn $6B, or 12%? And, of course, buying back shares is a "sure" way to increase reported earnings (per share), while investing $50B in whatever always has some risk associated with it. It's like paying off the mortgage for a guaranteed 4% return versus investing in something that might provide an 8% return. But also might not provide any return.
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 24, 2013 12:45:52 GMT -8
No one says they can't surprise us with a new product sooner than expected and throw off all of our timing. I actually wish they would. Someone like Jobs was much more cagey at that stuff....not sure TC is the type. Somehow we need to infuse excitement back into this marriage! New Macs in July or bust. But the "exciting new products" are coming in the fall; I don't think we should be second guessing Tim Cook on this one. I'm not sure if we "need" new Macs in July, or even at all this year. The competition is dismal right now, and with the Win-8 fiasco only beginning to be addressed now, it could take the PC world 6-9 months to recover from it (i.e. a new modified version of Win-8 that is more likable to the customers). The current crop of Macs pretty much beat everything out there right now as is. Maybe it would be better to focus the might of the engineering team on the "new categories" that were mentioned yesterday.
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Post by lance on Apr 24, 2013 13:12:43 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 14:07:01 GMT -8
New Macs in July or bust. But the "exciting new products" are coming in the fall; I don't think we should be second guessing Tim Cook on this one. I'm not sure if we "need" new Macs in July, or even at all this year. The competition is dismal right now, and with the Win-8 fiasco only beginning to be addressed now, it could take the PC world 6-9 months to recover from it (i.e. a new modified version of Win-8 that is more likable to the customers). The current crop of Macs pretty much beat everything out there right now as is. Maybe it would be better to focus the might of the engineering team on the "new categories" that were mentioned yesterday. That's not Apple's way (or it better not be). Keep the gas on the pedal and you won't have to look in the rear view mirror. Further, there's not much engineering putting in a new chip, at least relative to dropping in NFC and a fingerprint sensor inside iPhone 5S. MacPro users have been MORE than patient.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 24, 2013 14:11:42 GMT -8
LOL! My wheeeee has turned into whoaaaa!
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 24, 2013 14:36:43 GMT -8
I bought shares today -- nothing special (didn't mortgage the house or hock my jewelry), just part of my regular dollar-cost averaging investment approach. Before the market opened, I set a trailing "buy stop" of .50 based on the "last." Takes the emotion out of it.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 24, 2013 14:37:14 GMT -8
Doc - Jan 2015 390's. Bought at 520 You saw my post this morning, right? I would sell 1/2 and keep 1/2. Why would you dump them if they're an absolute steal? 1. Preservation of capital; 2. Diversification; 3. Unlike stock, derivatives have a shelf life; 3a. "delta" gains may not exceed "theta" losses 3b. consolidation can bleed LEAPs dry 3c. unhedged calls in a downtrend?!?!? I have several bullish AAPL JAN'14 and JAN'15 option positions (bull spreads) that I thought were an absolute steal -- currently worthless. Options can always become "more" of a steal, given any of the following: a drop in the underlying OR the passage of time OR a drop in IV.
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Post by nathanstevens on Apr 24, 2013 15:08:13 GMT -8
Per the 10Q it appears that apple has only spent $1.95B on the accelerated share repurchase (ASR) to date. That leaves $58.05B to spend in the next 32 months. As I see it, money spent on the buyback has a base return of 3% (dividend at current price) which effectively offsets the interest costs of using debt to finance the share retirement while they wait for a tax holiday to repatriate overseas funds. Meanwhile, they increase EPS by +/-15% over this time period without dipping into any of their own money. Seems like a pretty good idea.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 15:16:28 GMT -8
Per the 10Q it appears that apple has only spent $1.95B on the accelerated share repurchase (ASR) to date. That leaves $58.05B to spend in the next 32 months. As I see it, money spent on the buyback has a base return of 3% (dividend at current price) which effectively offsets the interest costs of using debt to finance the share retirement while they wait for a tax holiday to repatriate overseas funds. Meanwhile, they increase EPS by +/-15% over this time period without dipping into any of their own money. Seems like a pretty good idea. Completely agree. Someone was on CNBC today asking why Apple didn't put that money toward R&D. $50B toward R&D? What exactly do you expect them to come up with? TC has said they have more than enough money to run the business from day to day. That includes R&D. I love the buyback plan. It's ultimate effect on EPS is dependent on how many shares get bought back, but I'm hoping for at least a 10% trim to the current diluted share count. If they would go ahead right now and aggressively buy under 400, I'll be a really happy camper.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 24, 2013 15:53:21 GMT -8
So what type of bonds will AAPL issue? Maturity - coupon - etc. Will they be worth purchasing? I wonder...
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Post by mace on Apr 24, 2013 15:55:55 GMT -8
I bought shares today -- nothing special (didn't mortgage the house or hock my jewelry), just part of my regular dollar-cost averaging investment approach. Before the market opened, I set a trailing "buy stop" of .50 based on the "last." Takes the emotion out of it. In an accumulation mood? Appledoc said AAPL would decline to $350 .
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2013 16:19:35 GMT -8
HERE"s a 1981 WeberGrill Ad that suggests an iPad in 2007.
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Post by rickag on Apr 24, 2013 16:28:03 GMT -8
Sure would like to know Apple's strategy for the accelerated buy back. I wonder if they set some kind of floor, if the stock falls to $XXX then buy a set amount. If it were me I would be buying reasonable chunks at these prices, wait rinse and repeat until all was bought back. Kind of like cost averaging
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 24, 2013 16:38:28 GMT -8
WWDC will be more than just an iOS 7 preview. Though, based on the timing, iPhone 5S is looking to be a guaranteed September-or-so-give-or-take-a-couple-weeks deal.
Maybe Mac Pro will finally debut.
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