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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 16:49:07 GMT -8
I bought shares today -- nothing special (didn't mortgage the house or hock my jewelry), just part of my regular dollar-cost averaging investment approach. Before the market opened, I set a trailing "buy stop" of .50 based on the "last." Takes the emotion out of it. In an accumulation mood? Appledoc said AAPL would decline to $350 . Check out the retraces for cycle V... CYCLE V WEEKLY 385 was 56.9% of the move from 199 to 644 if dividend adjusted. It will change after the May dividend, but the 61.8% retrace would be 363.70. Using log values, we'd need to get to 307. I'm going to go ahead and say with 100% certainty that won't happen barring any global collapse or major disruption to Apple's supply chain. I'll take 350 +/- 5%
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 17:01:41 GMT -8
WWDC will be more than just an iOS 7 preview. Though, based on the timing, iPhone 5S is looking to be a guaranteed September-or-so-give-or-take-a-couple-weeks deal. Maybe Mac Pro will finally debut. SDK for Apple TV bodes well for Apple tipping its hand for iTV, and disruption of gaming. This IS a potential catalyst.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 24, 2013 17:23:05 GMT -8
I bought shares today -- nothing special (didn't mortgage the house or hock my jewelry), just part of my regular dollar-cost averaging investment approach. Before the market opened, I set a trailing "buy stop" of .50 based on the "last." Takes the emotion out of it. In an accumulation mood? Appledoc said AAPL would decline to $350 . Not my trading account. Remember, my cheapest buy & hold shares were bought at $348. I have stink bids from here to there.
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Post by prazan on Apr 24, 2013 17:23:19 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2013 17:23:55 GMT -8
Maybe we should pass the collection plate and see if we can get lovemyipad a date ?? Surely, Mr. iPad wouldn't mind a innocent coffee ? ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 24, 2013 17:25:24 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 19:27:57 GMT -8
Conventional thinking is there's no rush to buy AAPL before June/July. Well, Wall Street doesn't always follow the script of conventional thinking. With institutional ownership at low levels here, there's probably no opportunity cost (certainly no interest) for them to start buying here. I mean, the DOW and S&P are probably tapped, yet Apple didn't run with either. That's why I don't see AAPL bouncing upward (meaningfully anyway) until later in the quarter. The 'rush' will commence after July earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 19:34:15 GMT -8
Daniel Tello updated his 12-18mo price target following FQ2 earnings: A double ($836). Apple's trajectory will be more visible with iPhone 5s, iPad and FQ4 earnings beat and/or FQ1 guidance. An extra thing like iTV or iWatch will remove any doubt about Apple's upside. aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2013/04/fiscal-2q-2013-final-estimates.html
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 19:35:24 GMT -8
Conventional thinking is there's no rush to buy AAPL before June/July. Well, Wall Street doesn't always follow the script of conventional thinking. With institutional ownership at low levels here, there's probably no opportunity cost (certainly no interest) for them to start buying here. I mean, the DOW and S&P are probably tapped, yet Apple didn't run with either. That's why I don't see AAPL bouncing upward (meaningfully anyway) until later in the quarter. The 'rush' will commence after July earnings. I agree that's the conventional thinking...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 20:40:20 GMT -8
I just thought of something that could positively impact Apple's dividend plan.
Apple earns about 1.5% on its cash and equivalents. On revenue within California, Aplle pays 35% Federal income tax AND California income tax. I haven't been a California taxpayer since 1991 so I don't know current rates, but if memory services its about 12%.
That means that, after taxes, Apple will pay less than 1/2 % on the funds it borrows, and still has its cash (less buy back costs over 2+ yrs).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 21:16:46 GMT -8
I just thought of something that could positively impact Apple's dividend plan. Apple earns about 1.5% on its cash and equivalents. On revenue within California, Aplle pays 35% Federal income tax AND California income tax. I haven't been a California taxpayer since 1991 so I don't know current rates, but if memory services its about 12%. That means that, after taxes, Apple will pay less than 1/2 % on the funds it borrows, and still has its cash (less buy back costs over 2+ yrs). Corp. tax rates are 8.84% for Calif. It's deductible at Fed. level (top rate 35%). On a 2.5% loan, Apple's cost of capital after Fed and State is approx. 1.5%. Borrowing is smart vs. repatriating profits from abroad and paying the tax here. Not incidentally, I believe Apple has already accrued for this tax on its books, unlike other multinational companies. Of course, this would never fit a CNBC soundbite. If there were a tax holiday, Apple's adjustment to deferred tax would positively impact Apple's earnings.
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