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Post by chasmac on Apr 24, 2013 4:46:35 GMT -8
We had 3 or 4 potential surprises that might have helped put a little floor under aapl. 1. Earnings, 2. Divy increase, 3. Buybacks, 4. Q3 guidance. Now that those are out of the way, what's left to keep the shorts at bay? New products, nope, not til Fall. That will only increase the vacuum to be filled with FUD and Samsung this and that. No relief in court most likely, newest trial doesn't start until next year if I recall.
Mortgage the house guy = crazy IMO. Sponge = STFU, you may actually be harming others that read this board. Stop. Back to turtle mode and protecting capital, good luck.
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 4:50:11 GMT -8
Chas - what about buy a bullet and rent a gun guy? Oh wait that's me : )
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Post by fas550 on Apr 24, 2013 4:52:22 GMT -8
Went to take a shower and we go from pretty much flat to down 3%? You need to start tracking that. Perhaps it is an all elusive leading indicator (you tell us when you shower and we go short) Heck may be more reliable than EW.
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Post by seabiscuit on Apr 24, 2013 4:56:40 GMT -8
Hope someone else caught the comments just on CNBC over the downgrades and cash issue. Did not see it- would you summarize.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 24, 2013 4:57:15 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 4:59:47 GMT -8
Hope someone else caught the comments just on CNBC over the downgrades and cash issue. Did not see it- would you summarize. The talking heads basically called the downgrades an after-the-fact joke, then got pissed at the overseas income tax policy of the US government, which is preventing Apple from directly bringing that profit back home and returning it to the shareholders. Oh, they also rolled their eyes at Blodget. It was a nice minute.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2013 5:10:51 GMT -8
AAPL volume Pre Market over 1,500,000
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Post by tuffett on Apr 24, 2013 5:21:03 GMT -8
Lessons learned:
1) Just because Apple hasn't done something before because it's not in their "culture" doesn't mean they won't (ie. taking on debt that makes sense). Ergo, dismissing theories and criticisms based on such "evidence" is not a good idea. 2) Both revenue and margins are real concerns going forward 3) Those who defend themselves by telling others "you don't get Apple" are usually the ones most wrong about Apple ($11.28, $11.50....'nuff said)
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Apr 24, 2013 5:21:33 GMT -8
I find myself feeling strangely optimistic in the face of a sh***y PM. What brought us here was fear of the worst - bad numbers, bad guidance, and significantly declining demand of iPhone and iPad. We got 2 of 3, but the demand decline feared is NOT apparent at this stage. What we have instead is a decisive management prepared to make tough short term calls in order to mitigate longer term risk of irrelevancy.
Also the sellers here, namely those remaining short-termists and growth hunters, will be getting out now. As in today. The "new investor" who saw good news last night, the value players and long-termists, will be taking a few days to do their maths and arrange cash movements.
If we revisit 385, depending on inertia, I may be tempted to BTFD.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 24, 2013 5:23:49 GMT -8
an issue seems to be that everything new (or everything people are waiting/hoping for) is released in Q4 or end of Q3, which is the busiest quarter anyway due to the holidays. ideally, id say get back to summer product releases in early Q3. get all the early adopters/fanatics to buy right away, while also having time to get the product out in prep for the holiday mayhem. maybe this would balance things out a bit. when everything happens at once in the one quarter, expectations are so high that even an insane amount of sales may not be enough.
won't happen this year, but maybe the next.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 24, 2013 5:25:21 GMT -8
Well I couldn't keep away from this place for long, but I had to come back to at least say how happy I was with the implementation of the cash return plan yesterday, and the fact that it will be reviewed annually and highly likely increased. If this quiets the temper of some of the trolls around here ill probably stick around Welcome back. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding, but why would someone who heavily pushed an idea that Apple deemed a good one (and implemented) be labeled a troll?
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 24, 2013 5:34:37 GMT -8
Again, if you buy today - I am assuming that in the quiet days of summer and while all the focus is on other stocks which are making a new high - you think that AAPL will be higher. Do you really think that we won't see lower prices between now and July/August? I will let my powder dry some more.
And by the way - the villagers (retail and institutional) are growing more and more uncomfortable with the captain of this ship (AAPL). It's gotten to a point where when he says that they are coming out with new products etc. that people actually doubt his words. That is not a good place to be with the company's investors. Again - IT IS a CEO's job to manage the company and to respond to investors in a way that makes them comfortable with the direction of the company. That is what he gets paid to do as a PUBLIC COMPANY. If he doesn't want to do that - then either leave or take it private. By the way - the feeling out there is that they held on to saying anything about the cash deployment because they needed it as a bit of good news in what was otherwise not so good news.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 5:34:56 GMT -8
RDR. Let's go!
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2013 5:37:35 GMT -8
I'm a little confused on why Tim Cook even mentioned ANY timeframe when it comes to new products. In the first place I wouldn't want to give the competition any heads up and in the second place it only leads to expectations which could effect sales.
I much prefer the party line "We don't talk about new products".
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2013 5:38:54 GMT -8
I hope Apple just used about 500 million this morning to buy back : )
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Post by terps530 on Apr 24, 2013 5:41:24 GMT -8
its always wild watching the options BxA at open after earnings. some people, even on 6+months out plays, just made 50-100% in 10minutes.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 5:43:21 GMT -8
I'm a little confused on why Tim Cook even mentioned ANY timeframe when it comes to new products. In the first place I wouldn't want to give the competition any heads up and in the second place it only leads to expectations which could effect sales. I much prefer the party line "We don't talk about new products". The new iPhone happens in the fall per TIm, so perhaps he wanted to counter the noise that we would see it in June and July. This way, iPhone sales aren't "frozen" over the next 3 months. Just a guess. Also, he waffled on his comment during the conf. call. A new chip in June and we have to wait until Fall? That's a fail, if true.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 24, 2013 5:45:29 GMT -8
weeeeee?! haha
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Post by rob_london on Apr 24, 2013 5:46:31 GMT -8
I'm a little confused on why Tim Cook even mentioned ANY timeframe when it comes to new products. In the first place I wouldn't want to give the competition any heads up and in the second place it only leads to expectations which could effect sales. I much prefer the party line "We don't talk about new products". The new iPhone happens in the fall per TIm, so perhaps he wanted to counter the noise that we would see it in June and July. This way, iPhone sales aren't "frozen" over the next 3 months. Just a guess. . Yes, my thoughts too.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 5:46:36 GMT -8
I'm a little confused on why Tim Cook even mentioned ANY timeframe when it comes to new products. In the first place I wouldn't want to give the competition any heads up and in the second place it only leads to expectations which could effect sales. I much prefer the party line "We don't talk about new products". The new iPhone happens in the fall per TIm, so perhaps he wanted to counter the noise that we would see it in June and July. This way, iPhone sales aren't "frozen" over the next 3 months. Just a guess. Also, he waffled on his comment during the conf. call. A new chip in June and we have to wait until Fall? That's a fail, if true. Agreed...I really don't think anyone expected a product launch this quarter, it was way too soon for anything major. I'm glad he said the fall as he squashes all the iPhone 5S in July rumours and the "production issues of the iPhone 5S". I really don't see the stock doing much for 6 months, but I've been wrong many times before so who knows. Wall Street could see the writing on the wall for a huge 2014 comparison wise and jump in early?
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Apr 24, 2013 5:48:15 GMT -8
TC sent a message yesterday. $50 Billion starting this month.
The folks at Apple are very smart. They know how the game is played and are now the elephant in the market. $50 B buys about 7 days of average volume at these prices...
Perhaps the shorts and game players are about to receive a message.
;-)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 5:48:47 GMT -8
Question for the group: For anyone who has attended WWDC, do you think it would be interesting or have any value for someone who drinks cocoa instead of programming with it?
Wednesday morning quarterback: I'm still stunned over margins.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 5:50:22 GMT -8
Man, I hope someone took advantage of this. I don't have a good excuse for why I didn't trade that except that I was lazy.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 5:51:17 GMT -8
TC sent a message yesterday. $50 Billion starting this month. The folks at Apple are very smart. They know how the game is played and are now the elephant in the market. $50 B buys about 7 days of average volume at these prices... Perhaps the shorts and game players are about to receive a message. ;-) I sure liked hearing Tim say they're frustrated with the stock price. And money talks ($50B worth).
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Post by staralpha on Apr 24, 2013 5:52:40 GMT -8
Daytraded 1 weekly 400 call. Bought 3 minutes after open, @7.75, sold 15 minutes later @ 14.85. The second easiest $700 all month >.>
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Post by wheeles on Apr 24, 2013 5:52:52 GMT -8
That's right. Everyone flee now the stock has gone down 300 bucks.
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Post by fas550 on Apr 24, 2013 5:52:59 GMT -8
IMHO and maybe optimistically he knows he has to control expectations better. It's not really difficult to know what is going to be released (updated phone or iPad) anymore and also not difficult to gauge when given history and key supplier guidance. He talks in generalities which is fine. Better this than an expectation in the qtr that does not come to fruition as this causes speculative criticism and arguably more volatility in the stock. Now everyone knows when and a little bit of what but not exactly what (to include a completely new product category). Potential buyers of stock (owners of the company) don't like uncertainty and now have a little more certainty to make a decision when to invest based on their timeframe. It is difficult and takes time to change long held expectations but at least they have started.
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Post by wheeles on Apr 24, 2013 5:54:12 GMT -8
The second easiest $700 all month >.> I daren't ask what the easiest was...
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Post by staralpha on Apr 24, 2013 5:58:18 GMT -8
The second easiest $700 all month >.> I daren't ask what the easiest was... I'm sorry to say it was the put I rode down on thursday I will say though I think today will be a wash. Filling the gap over overshot. People are still trying to figure out I think if the buyback and small increase in dividend is enough to cover the lowered EPS outlook. Would not be surprised to be at flat +/- $2
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Post by staralpha on Apr 24, 2013 5:59:46 GMT -8
I will be happy for you guys if it ends up @ HOD today though. Would be a lot better than AH last night and this morning was trying to say.
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