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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 6:07:16 GMT -8
That's right. Everyone flee now the stock has gone down 300 bucks. +1. While Wall Street was "pricing down" AAPL over the last six months, guess who has the money to buy today? It's not retail, and they're selling. Sell Low and Buy High isn't my strategy. But to each his own.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 6:25:28 GMT -8
Scratch my idea for attendance at WWDC. Developer registration was required prior to announcement of the event.
The RDR looks more like R(Puppy)R.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 6:44:50 GMT -8
Despite several quarters of slowing growth, consumer electronics in the 21st century is still Apple's game to lose. AAPL's current PE fully bakes in the downside risks without giving any credit to the upside opportunities. I'm a buyer. +1
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 6:48:04 GMT -8
#8 looked like Sven from North Dakota.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 6:52:30 GMT -8
Shares outstanding. 940,692,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 19, 2012.939,058,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of January 11, 2013938,649,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of April 12, 2013945,355,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of September 29, 2012947,217,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of December 29, 2012946,035,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of March 30, 2013There's the shares Apple is going to buy back. The delta between issued and fully diluted, plus new option issues.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 6:54:40 GMT -8
Getting ugly in PM. I just want out of this mess but my 2015 LEAPS already lost 3/4 of their value. Don't know what to do.. Do you think AAPL will recover?
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Post by vikesfaniv on Apr 24, 2013 7:06:24 GMT -8
I don't like the Sprint #'s. Flat iPhone growth, and iPhones as a % of smartphones down from 50% last quarter to just 30% this quarter.
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Post by tradervic on Apr 24, 2013 7:10:35 GMT -8
If you drink cocoa but don't code cocoa, it'd be a waste of time (and money) anyway. Scratch my idea for attendance at WWDC. Developer registration was required prior to announcement of the event. The RDR looks more like R(Puppy)R.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 7:11:46 GMT -8
I don't like the Sprint #'s. Flat iPhone growth, and iPhones as a % of smartphones down from 50% last quarter to just 30% this quarter. Sprint is bleeding customers yet held iPhone #s. I'd say that was a positive for Apple, a negative for Sprint. I don't know what Sprint's problems are, but if they're suffering now, just wait until next quarter when T-Mobile poaches more of them now that they have the iPhone.
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 7:13:42 GMT -8
Getting ugly in PM. I just want out of this mess but my 2015 LEAPS already lost 3/4 of their value. Don't know what to do.. Do you think AAPL will recover? I'm not sure, fundamentally AAPL is still one of the best stocks to own. My problem is I started investing last May only in AAPL and since then obviously I had some bad luck. I know you should never invest too much in one company my mistake, but I believed that the ipad and iphone were the strongest in a growing technology industry. I, unlike many of you, haven't been through this type of consolidation before. I invested my life savings into a company that I thought was bound to go higher, I was wrong. On the plus side, I have no kids, no wife, no debt, and have a great job as an engineer at NASA. I was able to save up the $75K by living at home so what I invested I could "afford" to lose. I now do have some cushion in my savings account, and I know this would be a good importunity to buy but can't force myself to pull the trigger because I want to hedge myself in case my Jan 2015 390 LEAPS expire worthless. I just wish I had been through this before (ie. 2008) so maybe I could have developed a thicker skin to help me through the recent downturn.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 7:14:46 GMT -8
Getting ugly in PM. I just want out of this mess but my 2015 LEAPS already lost 3/4 of their value. Don't know what to do.. What strikes are we talking about and what was the cost basis?
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 7:16:07 GMT -8
Doc - Jan 2015 390's. Bought at 520
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 7:16:41 GMT -8
Despite several quarters of slowing growth, consumer electronics in the 21st century is still Apple's game to lose. AAPL's current PE fully bakes in the downside risks without giving any credit to the upside opportunities. I'm a buyer. For the just announced quarter and the upcoming quarter, expectations are for 20% EPS declines...if that continues, and I'm not saying it will, there really isn't too low of a price that it can fall to. Until EPS stabilizes or starts growing again, the stock will be very tough to price IMHO.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 24, 2013 7:20:27 GMT -8
I don't like the Sprint #'s. Flat iPhone growth, and iPhones as a % of smartphones down from 50% last quarter to just 30% this quarter. people just may not like sprints service, or perhaps with T-mobile now offering the iphone, sprint people are going to that service? i cant find the total smartphone sales of sprint prior to q4 last year, but i do know they sold 1.5m iphones in q1, q2, and q3 2012.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 7:36:58 GMT -8
Doc - Jan 2015 390's. Bought at 520 So I calculated your breakeven around 630. Is that about right? This is a tough call. I think they can still be profitable. But if it were me, I would probably dump them. I think the earliest we're looking at a turnaround is July. That's another three months of time lost, which will continue to crush time value in addition to any intrinsic value that may be lost. I will say, that @62 right now, those are an absolute steal. No way do I believe that AAPL will be below 452 come January 2015. This is why you must enter options with a hard plan. But hey, I've made the same mistake.
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Post by leonb on Apr 24, 2013 7:45:07 GMT -8
Doc - Jan 2015 390's. Bought at 520 So I calculated your breakeven around 630. Is that about right? This is a tough call. I think they can still be profitable. But if it were me, I would probably dump them. I think the earliest we're looking at a turnaround is July. That's another three months of time lost, which will continue to crush time value in addition to any intrinsic value that may be lost. I will say, that @62 right now, those are an absolute steal. No way do I believe that AAPL will be below 452 come January 2015. This is why you must enter options with a hard plan. But hey, I've made the same mistake. Why would you dump them if they're an absolute steal?
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 7:45:43 GMT -8
Thanks Doc. It really is a tough call. I sell some covered calls against them until they get called away. Kicking myself for not selling earlier but, I'm sure many of us are in the same boat.
One things for sure, once I sell AAPL will take off. I have absolutely no luck.
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2013 7:54:35 GMT -8
Thanks Doc. It really is a tough call. I sell some covered calls against them until they get called away. Kicking myself for not selling earlier but, I'm sure many of us are in the same boat. One things for sure, once I sell AAPL will take off. I have absolutely no luck. Please sell ;D
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Post by terps530 on Apr 24, 2013 8:10:31 GMT -8
So I calculated your breakeven around 630. Is that about right? This is a tough call. I think they can still be profitable. But if it were me, I would probably dump them. I think the earliest we're looking at a turnaround is July. That's another three months of time lost, which will continue to crush time value in addition to any intrinsic value that may be lost. I will say, that @62 right now, those are an absolute steal. No way do I believe that AAPL will be below 452 come January 2015. This is why you must enter options with a hard plan. But hey, I've made the same mistake. Why would you dump them if they're an absolute steal? he means they are an absolute steal today to buy at $62. they could go down $10-20 more over the next few months depending on a bunch of things, but all in all, a 450 break even for jan 2015 is a steal. However, buying when aapl was 520, he estimates that they cost around $240. jan 2015 is far away. i think you could calculate, if apple was constant, how much the price would be with X days left (theoretically). So then you could see 30, 90, 200 days out, how much intrinsic value is being losts while aapl doesn't move. for example, jan 2015s are 630 days away. the option costs $61 while aapl is at ~400. So 3 months from now at the end of july, if aapl still was at 400, the option should cost $61*((630-90)/630) = $52.25. Can you risk losing $9 for waiting another 90 days? (of course, if aapl goes down any amount under 400, the loss would be bigger)
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 8:12:51 GMT -8
So I calculated your breakeven around 630. Is that about right? This is a tough call. I think they can still be profitable. But if it were me, I would probably dump them. I think the earliest we're looking at a turnaround is July. That's another three months of time lost, which will continue to crush time value in addition to any intrinsic value that may be lost. I will say, that @62 right now, those are an absolute steal. No way do I believe that AAPL will be below 452 come January 2015. This is why you must enter options with a hard plan. But hey, I've made the same mistake. Why would you dump them if they're an absolute steal? Differing cost basis. If I bought them right now, I know I could make money on them at some point. At the same time though, I wouldn't be buying right now. I would wait until we get a confirmed up trend. The problem is that the original cost basis is so high (bought at 520), that I'm far less confident in breaking even or going green at any point before expiry.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 24, 2013 8:37:53 GMT -8
So where are all the "Apple needs to return cash to shareholders or else" people today? Now that Apple is returning cash to shareholders, has it helped the stock? Seems like we're kind of in the same place we would have been without that, considering a small beat to earnings and blah guidance.
Introducing a dividend last spring coincided with the beginning of the end for AAPL's stock performance. Sure, there's correlation there instead of causality.... but still, I don't see how it has helped.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 8:52:17 GMT -8
So where are all the "Apple needs to return cash to shareholders or else" people today? Now that Apple is returning cash to shareholders, has it helped the stock? Seems like we're kind of in the same place we would have been without that, considering a small beat to earnings and blah guidance. Introducing a dividend last spring coincided with the beginning of the end for AAPL's stock performance. Sure, there's correlation there instead of causality.... but still, I don't see how it has helped. I'll disagree...Apple's end of stock performance comes from growing EPS at a near 100% clip and now EPS is shrinking. There's a reason after the buyback was announced that the stock went up 6%...and then once Wall Street heard no new products until the Fall, it sold off again because there is going to be no new growth in the next few months.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 8:53:01 GMT -8
Thanks Doc. It really is a tough call. I sell some covered calls against them until they get called away. Kicking myself for not selling earlier but, I'm sure many of us are in the same boat. One things for sure, once I sell AAPL will take off. I have absolutely no luck. Conventional thinking is there's no rush to buy AAPL before June/July. Well, Wall Street doesn't always follow the script of conventional thinking. With institutional ownership at low levels here, there's probably no opportunity cost (certainly no interest) for them to start buying here. I mean, the DOW and S&P are probably tapped, yet Apple didn't run with either. Where AAPL is today (probably near a bottom) you might consider: 1. Do as Lovey says and sell half, or 2. Give it a month or two before deciding. This amount of option burn isn't going to be intolerable. If you think Apple bottoms 10% or more in the next month, see #1. Good luck.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 8:55:50 GMT -8
So where are all the "Apple needs to return cash to shareholders or else" people today? Now that Apple is returning cash to shareholders, has it helped the stock? Seems like we're kind of in the same place we would have been without that, considering a small beat to earnings and blah guidance. Introducing a dividend last spring coincided with the beginning of the end for AAPL's stock performance. Sure, there's correlation there instead of causality.... but still, I don't see how it has helped. I'll disagree...Apple's end of stock performance comes from growing EPS at a near 100% clip and now EPS is shrinking. There's a reason after the buyback was announced that the stock went up 6%...and then once Wall Street heard no new products until the Fall, it sold off again because there is going to be no new growth in the next few months. EPS matters, of course. But Wall Street is also supposed to look forward. And don't bet on no new Apple products this summer -- Macs should be getting Haswell. WWDC may hold a surprise (SDK for Apple TV?). Sheesh, if Wall Street was so laser-focused on earnings, someone needs to tell them Amazon doesn't have any.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 9:04:16 GMT -8
So where are all the "Apple needs to return cash to shareholders or else" people today? Now that Apple is returning cash to shareholders, has it helped the stock? Seems like we're kind of in the same place we would have been without that, considering a small beat to earnings and blah guidance. Introducing a dividend last spring coincided with the beginning of the end for AAPL's stock performance. Sure, there's correlation there instead of causality.... but still, I don't see how it has helped. I'm here. Happy with the decision. Cash plans were outweighed by bad Q3 guidance and later than expected product releases. Today would be a lot worse without the cash announcement.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 9:13:19 GMT -8
I'll disagree...Apple's end of stock performance comes from growing EPS at a near 100% clip and now EPS is shrinking. There's a reason after the buyback was announced that the stock went up 6%...and then once Wall Street heard no new products until the Fall, it sold off again because there is going to be no new growth in the next few months. EPS matters, of course. But Wall Street is also supposed to look forward. And don't bet on no new Apple products this summer -- Macs should be getting Haswell. WWDC may hold a surprise (SDK for Apple TV?). Sheesh, if Wall Street was so laser-focused on earnings, someone needs to tell them Amazon doesn't have any. Yes, EPS is the main thing that matters for a mature stock like Apple. It's no longer a growth stock, anyone who sees it as such is mistaken. Unless Wall Street has insider sources at Apple, they're seeing the same thing as us...no brand new products, no products planned for the next 3 months and a new iPad, iPad Mini, iPhone in the fall. We all expect that to happen, but will those 3 new products be enough to grow EPS again? That's the $400 Billion question...if not, and no fancy new products are to be released, Apple will sink. If EPS grows again, off to the races. I doubt anyone knows the answer to this though.
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 24, 2013 9:18:13 GMT -8
So where are all the "Apple needs to return cash to shareholders or else" people today? Now that Apple is returning cash to shareholders, has it helped the stock? Seems like we're kind of in the same place we would have been without that, considering a small beat to earnings and blah guidance. Introducing a dividend last spring coincided with the beginning of the end for AAPL's stock performance. Sure, there's correlation there instead of causality.... but still, I don't see how it has helped. It takes time for a stock buyback to "help". But in 32 months from now, there will be XX,000,000 fewer fully diluted shares which will make earnings per share higher by a proportionate amount.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 24, 2013 9:26:01 GMT -8
Mark - I get that. But the proportionate amount is not all that much compared to the hullabaloo surrounding it. By my calculations, unless AAPL were to drop a lot further, the most the buyback would increase EPS is 15% over 2.5 years, so around 5% a year. That's not nothing, but it's meager considering earnings might drop 10-20% this fiscal year, and the stock has dropped almost 50% in six months.
Could they have deployed 50b in a way that would earn more than 5% return a year?
Please correct me if my math is wrong.
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Post by mace on Apr 24, 2013 9:27:35 GMT -8
Thinking is the same as yesterday, AAPL needs to close above $415 for any chance of going higher. Hit that in early morning but can't hold. After $415 is captured, anytime it breaches above $438, can hope for $500-$580 before end of the year. So please buy buy buy when AAPL is around $415, need all the fire power to push above it.
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Post by tourist on Apr 24, 2013 9:40:27 GMT -8
I'm not sure that I understand arguments about TC announcing that new products will be coming the end of this year and all of next year. There is no law that says Apple can't introduce new products tomorrow just because TC said otherwise. I remember when Steve Jobs said that a Mac would never run Windows because the boot system couldn't be made to work with Windows. Two weeks later (or less) Apple announced the new capability.
In my opinion, TC would be failing in his job if he allowed demand for existing product to dry up because of an immanent rumored new release. Better to put off expectations, allow people to continue buying existing products, and release when Apple is ready to release.
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