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Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 12:23:40 GMT -8
Remember where AAPL started this year. I just don't want my account to get to where I stated this year. We are over extended over sold, which means they are giving us more pain for half the price. This is sickening to see how easily they can drive the stock down. This is all about options and they are just destroying option values. Part of me thinks this is still related to the move at the beginning of the year. there were a lot of Jan calls bought back then that the EO's are deep under water on. Lets not forget that we are now just $30 over our high in April and 5 months has passed. Man what a crappy day.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 12:23:51 GMT -8
What about the 644 level iPad spoke about?
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Post by podboy on Sept 25, 2012 12:25:03 GMT -8
Hmm my first experience with a new product launch, quite volatile. I think I am just sticking to trading common because I don't have the stomach to enter into the realm of options yet. It may not be a sexy trade but buying 5 common shares during this dip puts me at 125 total shares. I can't make as much money as you guys playing options but I think in the long run my shares will have a nice return nonetheless.
I hope we can steal some Saturn V's from GOOG cause they sure as hell don't need anymore!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 12:25:34 GMT -8
It's big, sure. 641/644 is the April intraday ATH which we'd hope is a big support level. But I don't feel like listing 5-10 levels at a time. I can't process so much info at once.
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Post by prazan on Sept 25, 2012 12:26:49 GMT -8
It really wouldn't be a MAJOR product release from Apple without a WTF selloff now would it ? We've seen this more times than I care to count .... patience and a good measure of perspective is in order here. Let the fools sell .... I'm happy to take their money as these prices will provide a nice slingshot soon enough. FYI, Just got a order confirmation from AT&T and my 3 iphone5's will not ship for another 21-28 days .... demand is STRONG and Apple will not lose sales to Android because of any delays .... I like your style. We're oversold, I think. I expect more selling pressure tomorrow, but then a bounce. Whether it will hold or not is the question. I'm hoping Lovemyipad will meet us in the charts/technicals thread later this evening, where we can look at levels of support, oversold indicators, BBands, and all the other tea-leaf indicators. But I'm a buyer at 670, I suspect.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 25, 2012 12:30:05 GMT -8
Having difficulty wrapping my head around how AAPL is behaving given the biggest product launch in history and how GOOG is laughing all the way to the bank both on share price and on the whole iMap issue. It's absolutely disheartening. This is what the shorts want, crush you psychologically, get you to capitulate. Yes the FUDsters rocked the stock, but I really doubt the MM's want to pay off all those puts that will be growing this week. Must fight fear and consider the load of puts opening up as rocket fuel. I don't have the intestinal fortitude for weeklies (or unhedged calls), but I think this is a buying opp for longer out. I'm more miffed, or even pissed, than worried or upset. When dumb bunnies like Jim Cramer can tank the stock, even for a day, with their stupid, AAPL bad, GOOG good "analysis," well, this is why I don't do weeklies. Sometimes it takes a while for even the quickest coyote to catch the dumbest bunny. Those little bastards are fast. Bottom line, does anyone here really think AAPL is doomed medium or long term? If not, then load up. Just give yourself some time for the coyotes to catch the bunnies. iPhone 5 = biggest phone launch in history. By far. Eventually, the truth on that will come out.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 12:31:12 GMT -8
I'm a buyer if I see a reversal on good volume. I would hope AAPL bounces strong, but AAPL feels "out of favor" right now.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 12:31:28 GMT -8
It's big, sure. 641/644 is the April intraday ATH which we'd hope is a big support level. But I don't feel like listing 5-10 levels at a time. I can't process so much info at once. Watching the RSI on the daily now to see if it holds over 50. It was not just AAPL that felt the pain today. Many other companies were beat up also. CMG was down big just like AAPL. CAT was walloped. BRCM, shot and left for dead. The list goes on. I don't know what to do and the dog is hiding under the desk. (bit by wasp I think) I am not selling anything. I get real stubborn when I feel like I am being robbed, and yes I feel like I am.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 12:47:39 GMT -8
I'm afraid to look... Everybody in one piece?
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Post by prazan on Sept 25, 2012 12:48:30 GMT -8
"Sometimes it takes a while for even the quickest coyote to catch the dumbest bunny. Those little bastards are fast."
Great analogy, JD. Thanks for the laugh.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 12:49:06 GMT -8
Having difficulty wrapping my head around how AAPL is behaving given the biggest product launch in history and how GOOG is laughing all the way to the bank both on share price and on the whole iMap issue. It's absolutely disheartening. This is what the shorts want, crush you psychologically, get you to capitulate. Yes the FUDsters rocked the stock, but I really doubt the MM's want to pay off all those puts that will be growing this week. Must fight fear and consider the load of puts opening up as rocket fuel. I don't have the intestinal fortitude for weeklies (or unhedged calls), but I think this is a buying opp for longer out. I'm more miffed, or even pissed, than worried or upset. When dumb bunnies like Jim Cramer can tank the stock, even for a day, with their stupid, AAPL bad, GOOG good "analysis," well, this is why I don't do weeklies. Sometimes it takes a while for even the quickest coyote to catch the dumbest bunny. Those little bastards are fast. Bottom line, does anyone here really think AAPL is doomed medium or long term? If not, then load up. Just give yourself some time for the coyotes to catch the bunnies. iPhone 5 = biggest phone launch in history. By far. Eventually, the truth on that will come out. That was tantamount to a slap on my face and screaming at me to "Snap out of it!' ....and JD you did just THAT! Thanks! Phew...glad to shake that one off.
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Post by ccs on Sept 25, 2012 12:49:12 GMT -8
Dumped my OCT sidebet that I picked up yesterday for a small loss. Live to fight another day. Wish I wasn't called away from the computer unexpectedly yesterday when it was green. Happy I had a stop limit order in place when I knew I wasn't going to be around to monitor it today. Gonna sit on the sidelines until direction is confirmed.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 12:52:07 GMT -8
By the way folks - Jon Najarian said again today that he expects AAPL should be releasing international launch numbers. Does anyone recall if that is customary...I just can't remember what was done with the 4S?
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Post by prazan on Sept 25, 2012 13:06:36 GMT -8
By the way, the Wells Fargo site crashed at 2:30 today, just as I was trying to exit a magin position at breakeven. By the time the site came online again, the stock had dropped 10 points. This reminded me that even if I can make the right call, I can't always execute it. If you've ever dreamed that your legs turned to lead when you were trying to escape something, that's pretty much how I felt.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 13:13:32 GMT -8
By the way folks - Jon Najarian said again today that he expects AAPL should be releasing international launch numbers. Does anyone recall if that is customary...I just can't remember what was done with the 4S? It has never happened, and you shouldn't expect it. Anything's possible, of course, and there is a new CEO.
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Post by macziggy on Sept 25, 2012 13:14:03 GMT -8
Good summation from Jon Najarian from his tweet: "Well, we got the pullback in Apple that I spoke of Friday on CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report with @scottwapnercnbc. I thought the combination of a feeding frenzy, lack of product on shelves to meet optimistic outlook and observance of Yom Kippur would feed into a mild 4 percent sell off, which proved correct. I still believe that AAPL will sell north of 8 million iPhone 5s into the quarter end and that fund managers will own this into the end of the quarter as well. Couple that with the launch of the iPhone 5 in an additional 22 countries on Friday, and you see why I project AAPL will rebound from here into September 28th. But as to today's action in the stock and options of AAPL: Average turnover of stock in September for AAPL has been 7.6 milion shares. It traded 22.8 million yesterday and 18.3 million shares today. Today AAPL options traded 4 1/2 x full session average daily turnover of 171,000 contracts. $AAPL put/call ratio over past 20 days has averaged .55. Running at .78 today 20 day avg trade in AAPL Calls & Puts: 111,000 calls to 60,000 puts. Today is 436K calls to 343K puts Trade dominated by retail, which isn't unusual for Apple, but with average option trade just 5 contracts, it is a tell that retail is scared and running. That's a good sign for those of us that look for capitulation, otherwise known as throwing in the towel. Volatility up from 23 to 28 in weekly options into Friday #s and iPhone 5 sales in fresh 22 countries." www.optionmonster.com/drj_blog/article.php?page=drj_blog%2Faapl_stock_option_stats_73352.html&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+optionmonsterDRJsBlog+%28optionMONSTER%3A+DRJ%27s+Blog%29
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 13:15:40 GMT -8
Funny, I was thinking some fund managers wanted to show booked AAPL profits for the quarter.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 13:51:23 GMT -8
Here is something really weird but it brings up a question I was asked yesterday - Tim Seymour who is supposedly focused on emerging markets but who I consider a complete bubbling idiot - claimed - and said it on live television that some emerging market funds bought AAPL because they couldn't make a return anywhere else and now have to sell it so it doesn't show up at month end...and that may be pressuring AAPL. Why do Butch Cassidy's words to Sundance resonate: "Who ARE those guys?" Do people really have a clue about what their fund managers are doing? It's insane!
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Post by appledoc on Sept 25, 2012 13:53:30 GMT -8
No worries. I just wish I hadn't been working so I could have bought the dip. Let's see if there is still a chance tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 14:22:17 GMT -8
I bought some Jan 15 800/900 Bull Call Spreads for $26 today...I'm patient and can wait for this.
I also have a question on Bull Put vs Bull Call Spreads. I was thinking about buying 850/900 Bull Put spreads, but the credit I would seem to get would only be about $30, give or a take a buck. The Bull Call spreads only cost around $11 - 12 bucks. There seems to be a lot more upside with the Bull Call spreads...yes I would need to exercise another trade to close them (if they were in the money), but it's not even close to think about doing a Bull Put Spread.
Is this standard for LEAPS that are this far ahead or am I missing something here?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 25, 2012 14:23:45 GMT -8
Good summation from Jon Najarian from his tweet: Trade dominated by retail, which isn't unusual for Apple Interesting comment, for those who call retail investors irrelevant. If the retailers aren't irrelevant, then the talking heads they listen to (aka, televised dumb bunnies like Cramer) are also relevant. Phoebe has already told us CNBC is on the trading floors all day. Anything's possible, of course, and there is a new CEO. ^ This. ^ Apple's been doing lots of things differently lately. Cook is more pure CEOey than Jobs. Sometimes that is good, sometimes it is bad. Apple never did 6:30 AM press releases before (right Gregg?). They've never done "personal pickup" of iPhones before. Apple hasn't paid a dividend before, or at least since Reagan was president. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but Apple might put out another release on Fri (please Tim, please!). That was tantamount to a slap on my face and screaming at me to "Snap out of it!' ....and JD you did just THAT! Thanks! Phew...glad to shake that one off. Glad I could be of assistance. That's Lovey's Skype influence. Stay cool. Trade with your head not your heart. I actually have Vulcan action figure on my desktop monitor to remind me of that (it was a gift). Easy for me to say, I don't have unhedged calls. "Sometimes it takes a while for even the quickest coyote to catch the dumbest bunny. Those little bastards are fast." Great analogy, JD. Thanks for the laugh. You know, I've actually learned a lot about bunnies. I hike in the hills with my dog 5-6 days per week. It never ceases to amaze me how dumb bunnies really are. We'll be walking by, enjoying the day, and a perfectly hidden rabbit will bolt out right in front of us. Had it just stayed put, we'd never know it was there. Ironically, by making a run for it, they expose themselves to predators. But they just can't help themselves; they are in a good position, but fear gets the best of them. There's a lesson here somewhere, I think. *** BTW, got some Jan 15 850/900's for 11.95 (beat Lovey by a nickle, ha ha). Also opened some Oct 690/695's, Nov 685/695, and Dec 680/685's, today.
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 25, 2012 14:42:32 GMT -8
Well, I was at my doctor's office getting a Rx for high blood pressure. Went in to appointment with AAPL down about $5. After the appointment, I checked the tape and saw we were down $17! Took a pill right on the spot! :-)
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Post by nkmho on Sept 25, 2012 14:44:55 GMT -8
I bought some Jan 15 800/900 Bull Call Spreads for $26 today...I'm patient and can wait for this. I also have a question on Bull Put vs Bull Call Spreads. I was thinking about buying 850/900 Bull Put spreads, but the credit I would seem to get would only be about $30, give or a take a buck. The Bull Call spreads only cost around $11 - 12 bucks. There seems to be a lot more upside with the Bull Call spreads...yes I would need to exercise another trade to close them (if they were in the money), but it's not even close to think about doing a Bull Put Spread. Is this standard for LEAPS that are this far ahead or am I missing something here? I'm seeing a mid of almost $38 for the Jan 15 850/900 Bull Put Spread, which is close to equivalent to the Bull Call Spread. That said, it would pretty much be impossible to get a good fill on that due to the wider bid-ask spreads on each leg since they are so DITM.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 14:51:37 GMT -8
So Cramer featured Scott Redler's technicals on AAPL tonight- his views - and of course I am paraphrasing: Cramer continues to stay in AAPL as an investment - thinks fundamentals are there. As for technicals he defers to Redler. Redler thinks we need to hold here....RIGHT HERE....and if we can we can continue upward - the shorts get squeezed and we continue following Google's path. However, if we do not hold, we move down to 644 and then resume the path up. Don't know what tomorrow brings - with light volume due to the Jewish holiday either side could push it any way they want. Guess tomorrow will be an important day technically
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 25, 2012 15:04:09 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 15:07:49 GMT -8
More from Scott Redler: Scott Redler on AAPLExcerpt: Historically, the best way to approach Apple (AAPL) has been as a buy-and-hold investor. Every sale has been a bad one over the years, especially if you didn’t get back in! If you’ve held AAPL for the past decade you would have participated in one of the biggest winners in market history.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 25, 2012 15:10:43 GMT -8
So Cramer featured Scott Redler's technicals on AAPL tonight- his views - and of course I am paraphrasing: Cramer continues to stay in AAPL as an investment - thinks fundamentals are there. As for technicals he defers to Redler. Redler thinks we need to hold here....RIGHT HERE....and if we can we can continue upward - the shorts get squeezed and we continue following Google's path. However, if we do not hold, we move down to 644 and then resume the path up. Don't know what tomorrow brings - with light volume due to the Jewish holiday either side could push it any way they want. Guess tomorrow will be an important day technically Nick thinks the action has nothing to do with AAPL but is all SPY related nanseninvestments.com/2012/09/25/the-pros-are-back-in-town/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 15:24:29 GMT -8
Technicals types, is support not "really" support if a stock doesn't bounce off it like 10 times?
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Post by nate010203 on Sept 25, 2012 16:08:57 GMT -8
I used the rest of my dry powder today at 685.80. A little too soon but Im not worried, apple will be back over 690 soon in my opinion. I just hope its not 2-3 months to get back to 700.
That being said, today really really hurt. Apple has treated me well though so long term im not worried.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 16:33:18 GMT -8
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