aapl
fire starter
Posts: 186
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Post by aapl on Mar 8, 2024 3:47:33 GMT -8
Do the weekly options expire today? Ah, yes. AAPL's up in the premarkets: $169.77 +$0.77 (+0.46%)
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Mar 8, 2024 7:06:56 GMT -8
Trying to work out if this is back the truck up territory sub-170. Is anyone else considering adding to their position?
I'm unsure, as I'm unconvinced apple has a plan for growth and being competitive in the AI revolution. Siri has been rubbish and a joke for years now. But they do continue to print money, and have otherwise become a pleasantly mature proposition, if no longer a growth story.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 8, 2024 7:34:19 GMT -8
I agree entirely on Siri. It is brain-dead stupid at times. The neglect and stagnation is inexcusable.
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Post by davidstevenson on Mar 8, 2024 7:50:50 GMT -8
(In Nevada they approved self-driving on highways below 40mph, I believe. I don't know how many highways that actually means, since most have speed limits higher than that)
Or, like speed limits, a state could designate self driving sections of a road or even a special lane for self driving cars only (like high occupancy vehicle lanes).
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Post by macster on Mar 8, 2024 8:59:53 GMT -8
I agree entirely on Siri. It is brain-dead stupid at times. The neglect and stagnation is inexcusable. Could it be the cloud server farms which Apple does not own or have enough of, the speed at which would improve Siri accuracy? idk Just asking Why?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,657
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 8, 2024 9:04:43 GMT -8
(In Nevada they approved self-driving on highways below 40mph, I believe. I don't know how many highways that actually means, since most have speed limits higher than that) Or, like speed limits, a state could designate self driving sections of a road or even a special lane for self driving cars only (like high occupancy vehicle lanes). There's just all of these little things that we take for granted, that aren't really that complex, but that are different. The driving assist features seem to do very well when things are standard, and when well defined. But... Driving in Canada was interesting last summer. The Camry we rented kept taking issue with the line striping of highway/freeway onramps, because they would put a dashed line following the road, that the onramp would cross to get on the highway/freeway. This was in Quebec and Ontario, driving maybe 1200 miles. It seemed like a standard the car should know. But the US used a variety of things too. Carpool lanes are the one that ring out to me, with Arizona, Northern California, and Southern California each doing them differently, and you could hit all 3 in a day on a 600 mile trip. In AZ, at least when I was there, the carpool lane had a single or 2 separated (not double) while lines separating it from the main lanes. S CA puts in a double yellow, with occasional dashed openings to get in and out of the lane. N CA traditionally let you enter and exit wherever, but as they integrate it with paid express lanes in more places, it is becoming more like S CA in some places. But then there are also places with double express/carpool lanes. This all isn't that complex for a learning system (including humans), especially if normally staying localized where one "standard" is used. But given other learning problems, I expect self-driving to have some issues. And those other problems are anytime something is strange. My wife tried a friend's Tesla across an intersection at an overpass, with something like 5 lanes each way. Since the lines weren't drawn through the intersection, apparently it started drifting into the next lane over, before jerking when it then saw the upcoming lines. Our Sienna gets mad at me (lane keeping assist tries to turn the wheel) when going through construction zones where the cones direct you over lines. Obscured/faded/missing lines of course cause issues. They reopened our mountain pass, and have 2 lanes worth of space cut through. But in some places it's offset about 5 feet to the side, so that one direction is partly on the shoulder, and the other direction is straddling the double yellow. It's relatively easy to figure out, for most people, though some have problems. But line based self-driving features don't like it. Things will get there. A key thing will be keeping humans well trained in driving, while making a graceful transition from self-driving to human when the system has problems. When zipping along at highway or freeway speeds, or really most any time something strange happens, there's just not that many seconds of switchover time available. A deer or tumble weed doesn't sit around and wait to even give you a 5 second window. A networked mega system, cataloging issues and road hazards, could help give a better response time while also giving things for the system to learn. And once a system learns something strange, like the zig-zagging center line near a popular beach crossing in Hawaii, it should be able to spread that knowledge on to other vehicles. Here's a link to one of many articles on the turquoise lights on level 3 self driving in NV and CA. I thought there was a Volvo approved for it too, but this just talks of the Mercedes. www.tomsguide.com/news/mercedes-is-adding-turquoise-lights-to-cars-that-drive-themselves-heres-whyI guess the main idea currently is stop and go traffic, so driving below 40mph even if the speed limit is higher. And that generally means well marked places in large busy areas. The geo-fencing, if updatable, might also allow for temporary suspensions of the area for construction, accidents, and such.
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,657
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 8, 2024 9:11:39 GMT -8
I agree entirely on Siri. It is brain-dead stupid at times. The neglect and stagnation is inexcusable. Could it be the cloud server farms which Apple does not own or have enough of, the speed at which would improve Siri accuracy? idk Just asking Why? Siri can do a bunch of things. Some it does well for me, like speech to text for dictating text messages. I don't do that very often, but I've been impressed when using it. Especially when using the proper word, like to vs too vs two. But I don't use it too often to do searches, because of past issues. Like others have said before, it has aimed results towards restaurants or locations. Maybe it does better now? But from not being overly excited with it in the past, I just don't use it much. What failures have people had with Siri, and has it improved over time? Or what features do you really like? "Siri" seems to cover a spectrum of features and use cases.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,657
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 8, 2024 10:24:22 GMT -8
Why do I have the feeling someone (options traders?) will push it back up by 2-3 dollars every Friday for a couple months? Looking for the next 3 expirations, I don't see any huge volume of open interest at a specific strike, for calls or puts. I think someone big was shrinking their AAPL exposure. The last 6 trading days had much higher volume than normal. Part of that could be due to a changing price, and part of it is likely bots piling on to the extra volume. But if 10M shares per day were additional from one entity, that's $11B if using $175 as an average price over the 6 days. FWIW Berkshire has sold this much in a quarter before. stockcircle.com/portfolio/warren-buffett/aapl/transactionsIt might not be them even if it was a big player, as others hold large amounts too. It sucks for the pricing in the short term, and it doesn't seem like timing is idea, but some big players tend to sell when they decide to sell, worrying much less about trying to optimize the price. Volume looks more normal today, and the stock is up nicely. AAPL normally has a huge enough volume that we don't have to worry about this too much. But I've occasionally had issues with options (say trying to write to buy 50 options, when the daily volume is only 100), and also when trying to change things on a small company where the order was going to be something like 20% of the normal daily volume. As for the question of buying more AAPL, or options, it is tempting. The pricing was about 30% off of my 1 year guess (looks like I said $224), and about 50% off of Ives $250 guess. Those are tempting enough figures. But I'm already taking a decent amount of risk, a little higher than I would prefer. I picked up some extra shares back in October to play a shorter term move, but only picked up about 20% of what I was considering. It is tempting to get more. But it's the same issue. The market is in a flat middle ground right now, waiting for the timing on rate cuts while hoping the soft landing holds, housing eases off a little, but jobs and earnings still stay solid enough that the economy can keep rolling and even ramp up some (but not too quickly). And three's that whole 4 year cycle thing going on, where everyone likes to talk about being cross party and working for the country, but no one wants to find some middle ground on one or two hot button items even if they would win by a landslide. So there's some extra worry or uncertainty in the air. But with Apple, even here we have trouble seeing the next major catalyst that could make the stock run. AVP is great, but we don't see it moving the needle within the next year or two. The processors have an advantage, but unless they were remarketed in a big server farm AI push, or they just completely trounced the competition in a way that customers hugely valued, it's not likely to quickly move the needle. And while AI has been a huge hype monster in the past 6-12 months, Apple is holding its cards close to its chest, just waiting. But I see them making slow and relatively small changes, instead of a big OMG moment that makes the stock fly up 50% in months. If I had a 10% allocation in AAPL, a 2-5+ year timeframe, and had just sold something (NVDA) and so had 10% just sitting around, I could see doubling my position in AAPL. Instead I am mostly in AAPL, and while the brokerage will let me borrow huge additional sums for reasonable rates, that's not really a smart move nor one that I am considering, even if it means I am leaving a considerable opportunity on the table. In a different time, place, or situation, maybe I'd feel differently. Instead, I might pick up a tiny bit more just for fun, but I mostly did that by using the dividend in non-margin accounts to pick up some a couple weeks back. It's nice to see AAPL up today, especially now with the S&P and Nasdaq down. I wish we knew why this was happening. It's always nice for an article to come out and say why the market is moving in some way that day, even if it is only partly correct. Instead for AAPL over this last week+ we just have general observational stories, of AAPL down compared to the market over x weeks or months, or NVDA market cap catching up. Maybe we'll eventually hear, or maybe there is word on the street. But it's always tough when the move seems to be on nothing, because it makes you wonder what someone else knows that you don't. Luckily Apple is in such a strong position that we can feel relatively confident that AAPL will do well over the medium and long term, even if there is some volatility and uncertainty in the short term.
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Post by hrace on Mar 8, 2024 11:06:50 GMT -8
Trying to work out if this is back the truck up territory sub-170. Is anyone else considering adding to their position? I'm unsure, as I'm unconvinced apple has a plan for growth and being competitive in the AI revolution. Siri has been rubbish and a joke for years now. But they do continue to print money, and have otherwise become a pleasantly mature proposition, if no longer a growth story. I’ve been asking myself the same questions. I bought a few shares under $170 yesterday but no backing up the truck. For the last 15 years or so there were many reasons that seemed to justify a future higher share price: 3G to 5G upgrade cycle, the big phone size upgrade cycle, sales in China way up, dividends , share buybacks , AAPL was “undervalued” compared to many blue chip stocks in the SP500 (getting a fair valuation). Everything pointed to a much higher share price if one was willing to tolerate the ups and downs, and AAPL delivered (in my opinion). Now, I sit with an overweight position in AAPL, honestly a bit unsure where growth lies. AI? Health? Vision Pro? Sales in India? It’s not the lack of growth that I fear most but anything that may keep Apple down for years or more that I don’t see coming. I’m not ready to go 100% VGT (Vanguard Technology Fund), but lately it’s tempting to trade into a something with less downside risk and still SP500 beating (my opinion) to avoid a massive loss in gains that I failed to see coming. No suggestion from me just voicing that I am unsure what the top 10 easy growth opportunities are today that seemed so obvious over the last decade. Contemplating lightening up based on not being able to see the future as well as I felt I could previously. Been tempted to toss $20 at PED 3.0 for a month to read some of the really interesting looking headlines. Not sure it’ll make me take any action but it’ll scratch an itch to read anything AAPL besides the junk on Yahoo Finance.
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Post by hledgard on Mar 8, 2024 11:47:49 GMT -8
Great post, hrace ! ! Precisely my feelings too, as I am sure others have. Just don't feel confident about the short and medium term for AAPL. And the long term, always very hard to project.
What can hold AAPL up? The integration of all the hardware and software is a big key plus. Not so sure about Apple's simplicity of design going forward, especially without Steve or Ives.
Maybe a break in the health field.
Just not confident.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 8, 2024 13:29:47 GMT -8
We've all seen this before...Apple is doomed, it's no longer a thriving, successful company. Apple no longer innovates...Tim Cook is a terrible CEO...no AI in its future, etc. AAPL has ended down for 7 or so market days and most everything else, especially NVDA, has been going gangbusters. And now, today...AAPL is green and everything else is red. Well, OK, not everything...but many of the stocks that were green all those days are red today. What's happening? IMO, it's the stock market...it's how many traders make money. Are we going to ignore that AAPL was down -35% in 2002, -57% in 2008, -5% in 2015, -6.8% in 2018 and -26.8% in 2022? The same folks who held AAPL through those down years shouldn't be so nervous, again IMO, about AAPL having a rough two months or so. I'm not selling a single share of AAPL because of the share price pullback over the last two months or worries about future performance. Those selling AAPL and moving on to other stocks may prove to making the right decision for the right reasons...but I still have plenty of confidence in Apple and its plans for continued commercial success.
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Mar 8, 2024 15:11:45 GMT -8
I added some shares around 169, maybe half what I had in cash lying around from dividends. Also bought a couple of May calls on that day when things were tanking, which popped ok earlier today. Up about 23% on those so far.
IMO stuff like Broadcom, nvidia, amd, and the other so-called “Ai” plays feel super frothy right now. Overhyped, overpriced, and without Apple’s moat.
I use Siri a fair bit, it has good integration for basic stuff between phone/watch/airpods for things like Apple Music, workouts, dictating messages. It’s most useful when hands are otherwise occupied or I can’t be arsed to pull out the phone in the middle of something else.
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 186
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Post by aapl on Mar 8, 2024 15:54:59 GMT -8
Been tempted to toss $20 at PED 3.0 for a month to read some of the really interesting looking headlines. Not sure it’ll make me take any action but it’ll scratch an itch to read anything AAPL besides the junk on Yahoo Finance. hrace, if Yahoo Finance and this board are your only sources for investment related news on Apple, then spending $20 would be a no brainer.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 8, 2024 16:33:00 GMT -8
Trying to work out if this is back the truck up territory sub-170. Is anyone else considering adding to their position? My wife and I have been "adding" to our position for 12+ years...since Apple restarted their dividend program in 2012. So, four times a year, regardless of the AAPL share price at the time, we've auto-reinvested the AAPL dividends in our IRA's(60% of our AAPL). Our highest *recent* auto-purchase was on 11/16/23 when AAPL shares were purchased at $189.28/share. Nevertheless, the average cost basis of those 12+ years of auto-purchased AAPL shares is $48.08/share. Since I have no desire to try to time the market(mainly because I suck at it), the best time to buy AAPL shares is when one has the money to buy AAPL shares, IMO. No suggestion from me just voicing that I am unsure what the top 10 easy growth opportunities are today that seemed so obvious over the last decade. Contemplating lightening up based on not being able to see the future as well as I felt I could previously. Really? You felt you were able to somewhat see the future for AAPL/Apple? I never felt that way so I'm not in a position to miss it. Been tempted to toss $20 at PED 3.0 for a month to read some of the really interesting looking headlines. Not sure it’ll make me take any action but it’ll scratch an itch to read anything AAPL besides the junk on Yahoo Finance. I've subscribed to PED 3.0 for several months now and have been very happy with both PED's content/contribution and with the comments from other subscribers...many of whom provide some real thought and insight.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 9, 2024 5:26:03 GMT -8
also consider Aboveavalon.com Neil Cybart provides his insights on Apple and other companies.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 9, 2024 6:29:23 GMT -8
I agree entirely on Siri. It is brain-dead stupid at times. The neglect and stagnation is inexcusable. Could it be the cloud server farms which Apple does not own or have enough of, the speed at which would improve Siri accuracy? idk Just asking Why? No, I don’t think the speed would explain things like basic questions, resulting in Siri just suggesting websites to look for. Which is totally useless when you ask your HomePod for example. Or randomly responding to HomeKit commands with something like “you don’t have any HomeKit devices”. When I have a bunch and minutes before or later it executed the command properly. I could go on. I just don’t get it.
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Post by hrace on Mar 9, 2024 9:02:56 GMT -8
Really? You felt you were able to somewhat see the future for AAPL/Apple? Admittedly poor word choice on my part. Believed in the strong likelihood of changes rumored to occur, as mentioned in the post (3G to 5G, etc etc.). It was that belief that allowed aggressive buying during the dips mentioned.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 9, 2024 11:10:09 GMT -8
Really? You felt you were able to somewhat see the future for AAPL/Apple? Admittedly poor word choice on my part. Believed in the strong likelihood of changes rumored to occur, as mentioned in the post (3G to 5G, etc etc.). It was that belief that allowed aggressive buying during the dips mentioned. Not a problem...I understood what you meant. My wife and I weren't smart enough to do *aggressive* buying at any time...we typically bought the stock whenever we had the extra money, regardless of the share price. As far as "lightening up" on AAPL goes, I really believe that AAPL is purposely being driven down and it will continue to be a great investment, as it has been over the years...but, as with all investing, there's no guarantee and you may be right. I just think folks are flocking to NVDA and other stock associated with AI because they see the stock rising so quickly...and, of course, that makes the stock rise even quicker. I would encourage you to try PED 3.0 to see if you like it.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 9, 2024 11:22:23 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Mar 9, 2024 14:55:03 GMT -8
Per above, I strongly agree with "The iPhone maker has previously been wary of the hype, instead referring to it as machine learning or focusing on specific uses of AI technology such as transcription."
The AI stuff is good, but it ain't that good.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,657
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 10, 2024 8:22:50 GMT -8
Since there is no weekend thread and I have no idea how to start one... It's really easy. I'll give steps, but I know that anyone here can figure this out just by going to the weekend thread folder with the desire to create the weekend thread, and so clicking on the 'create thread' button. In the fashion of the Apple iMac ad with Jeff Goldblum: Step 1: Click on the 'create thread' button in the weekend thread folder aaplfinance.proboards.com/board/11/weekend-updatesStep 2: Give it a subject (Friday's date and the weekly stock change), content, and click the 'create thread' button Step 3: There is no step 3. There is no step 3! It's that easy. It's pretty simple, but is a good way to help out. And by having a variety of people helping out in their own unique thread opening ways, we help add a little bit of character to the site.
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