aapl
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Post by aapl on Mar 12, 2024 2:33:45 GMT -8
AAPL's following up yesterday with more green today early in the premarkets: $173.46 +$0.71 (+0.41%)
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 12, 2024 6:01:31 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 12, 2024 8:24:48 GMT -8
I finally had a change to sit down yesterday and watch the nearly 30 minutes of that last video. (decided to skip the 1st, since it is 4 months old and should be covered by the last one) Intel is trying to catch up, by doing a bunch of things at once. If they go well they should be sitting pretty, while being realistic with their goal of being 2nd. But like trying to figure out a problem with a complex system like a car, it is a lot easier if you do it when there is just one problem, than trying to fix it when there are a bunch of different problems contributing to the symptoms. They kept talking about the hay days, showing the Bunny Suit ad (~2000, which Apple then made fun of with one of the PPC ads). So they self admittedly are not just trying to get to where they were 5 or 10 years ago, but aiming for 20-25 years? I like their enthusiasm, even if Def Leopard intro music and quotes from Steve Jobs of ice water in hell just don't seem to fit in quite right. But like many big changes, it's going to take rallying the troops, and the market, to get it done. It's unlikely that everything will go smoothly, but as long as there is good follow thru they should be able to get through the seemingly impossible. As for if Intel is a good investment, that's hard to know with any sort of certainty. Past history doesn't show it, and like Mark mentioned yesterday, the downward spiral of lower earnings and lower expectations makes it hard on the stock, especially with that investor sentiment multiplier of the P/E, which can be so variable but where momentum really plays out. I hope Intel does well. A big part of their push is as a Foundry, and it wouldn't be a bad thing for Apple to have more 1st class (or near first class) options there. OTOH there are times where Apple has owned part of the market (such as initial tiny iPod HDs), which has given them an advantage. We know that Apple has a good portion of TSM's highest end production. But I'm not familiar with how much of it they have, if these days it's 20-30%, 50%, or 80%. I have a feeling it is at the lower end now, and so doesn't give them an edge over the competitors. If that is the case, then more production availability could help with pricing and turnaround time.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 12, 2024 9:43:08 GMT -8
I may be mistaken here, but Intel is the only company that designs and manufactures here in the US. So as long as China continues to threaten to invade Taiwan which would leave Intel as the world’s only choice for high end chips. It’s not a pleasant thought, but possible.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 12, 2024 10:36:41 GMT -8
I may be mistaken here, but Intel is the only company that designs and manufactures here in the US. So as long as China continues to threaten to invade Taiwan which would leave Intel as the world’s only choice for high end chips. It’s not a pleasant thought, but possible. It's good to hedge bets, especially very big ones. That's part of the reasoning behind the Phoenix TSM plant. While the area is/was a hotbed of semiconductor processing (In ~2000 Motorola had 8 sites there, with multiple fabs each. Intel had a lot of sites there. I see some of the people I worked with at MOT/ONNN are still working there), like Intel the problem is that if you don't keep up with current technology you aren't fully trained anymore. But an interesting thing for Intel will be on the monopoly side of things of being both a foundry and creating their own chips. My understanding from the videos is that the foundry would also be fabricating chips that others designed. Will they fabricate chips for a competitor like AMD? Even if they do, will there be worries/accusations of delaying it, not optimizing it ("the process worked, so we never tried tweaking it more to increase yield further"), or overcharging? Play any world colonization type board game (thinking of Catan), and there are often multiple ways to win. One is to have a valuable resource that others are willing to trade for. But sometimes there are players who just go for complete hoarding, getting one resource and basically never wanting to trade anything for it. And that's the worry with China, especially when they have bought up most of the mines for certain elements. But with that, and many of the holdings being international, it only leads to the first option. OTOH I can see the worry that they could play their hand differently if they had complete control of the resource. The world has managed to play nicely with nuclear weapons for now nearly 80 years, understanding the whole ensured mutual destruction thing talked about 40 years ago on War Games. But controlling something like top end semiconductor manufacturing is a different beast, potentially giving power even if not ending the world. No matter what might happen in such a situation, it seems advantageous on multiple fronts to have 2 or more global producers. For the US of course it is nice to have that in the US, but I think a lot of the Fab equipment companies are still in the US too. I hope the Phoenix TSM plant and the Intel Fabs both work out and don't have too many future delays.
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Post by duckpins on Mar 12, 2024 11:47:32 GMT -8
Someone actually buy Apple! "Hightower Advisors' Stephanie Link has increased her Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) stake, with the stock sitting in the bargain bin. What To Know: Tuesday on CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report,” Link argued that Apple stock may be set up to outperform this quarter given the current sentiment surrounding the iPhone maker. “This is a stock that is down 13% from its highs. We know that the numbers have come down for the April quarter, we know that already. We know that China is weak and continues to be down double digits, but I do think that the April quarter will be better than expected,” Link said on the show. iPhone sales in China fell 24% during the first six weeks of the year, according to data from Counterpoint Research. The analyst firm said in a note last week that the sales decline was partly due to increasing competition from local smartphone makers like Huawei, Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi. Although iPhone sales are going to be weak, the company’s services business is likely to show double-digit growth and earnings should be a bright spot on the back of strong margins, Link said. Check This Out: Apple Will Let iPhone Users Download Apps Directly From Websites, But Strict Conditions Apply Despite being down about 10% since the start of the year, Apple stock has held up better than its mega-cap peers as the Nasdaq has pulled back in recent sessions, Link said."
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