CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 17, 2024 3:18:53 GMT -8
AAPL is currently trading at $169.90 +0.52 (+0.31%) We've had a lot of ups and downs lately. I think I'm getting sea sick. Tim Cook Says Apple Considers Making Gadgets in Indonesia in Pivot From ChinaHaving just visited the area, I can say iPhones were not prevalent in Indonesia. I don't think they even had an Apple Store there. I did find an Apple like store (a store selling Apple products, made out to look like an Apple Store). This could boost the sales in the country too.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 17, 2024 4:33:24 GMT -8
A few days back, we had a discussion on Apple needing to make an AI phone. Which included some concern about Johnny Ive and Sam Altman trying to raise investment money to build one. There was also concern about Steve’s widow being a possible investor. I had an opinion that Ive and Altman could very likely raise lots of money to pursue this. I also voiced an opinion that Ive’s Apple credentials did not mean he was capable of creating a successful product outside of Apple. I think the unfolding story of Humane and their AI pin is worth having a look at as a counterpoint to the Ive “threat”. Kind of a relevant case study for a few reasons. 1. Founders are from Apple. They have traded on those credentials to generate a lot of buzz and raise money. 2. They have raised A LOT of money from well credentialed investors. $230M. Including Altman. More Here. The list includes Microsoft and Qualcomm. Smart money right? Not so fast. All hell is now breaking loose with reviews coming in. I think those investors are going to lose most or all of their money. At the center of all of this is MKBHD’s review. The Worst Product I’ve Ever Reviewed … For Now. Some people are taking issue with him possibly killing the company. Others (which I agree with) make the point that his readers deserve the straight goods, no matter what the consequences are to the company behind the product. I think smart founders and smart investors are plenty capable of their hubris running away on them and lighting a bunch of money on fire as a result. If Ive and Altman try to give their idea a go, I think that they could go the way of Humane, except that they will light even more money on fire.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Apr 17, 2024 7:45:32 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 17, 2024 8:01:56 GMT -8
All hell is now breaking loose with reviews coming in. I think those investors are going to lose most or all of their money. At the center of all of this is MKBHD’s review. The Worst Product I’ve Ever Reviewed … For Now. Some people are taking issue with him possibly killing the company. Others (which I agree with) make the point that his readers deserve the straight goods, no matter what the consequences are to the company behind the product. The last 2 minutes with good uses was nice, including while driving a car. And tucked in the last 5 minutes or so was the "a cell phone works with all outfits", which seems to be mostly true for guys, but less so with certain (or even many) womens outfits (swimsuits, athletic outfits, dresses, or even pants with tiny pockets). Aside from the lag and times that it didn't answer the questions, a better comparison would be to times where you would want just an Apple Watch, while for whatever reason not carrying or using an iPhone. In our neck of the woods, that seems to be if you were going on a run or going in the water for a swim or standup paddle board. I could also see using it for times when trying to be away from the internet (like he said) and your phone, but still wanting some of the features around. Basically limiting screen time for yourself, or for someone else (kids). So then the real problems are that it's not a Smart Phone replacement, and the tech still needs improvements from the current early adopter or proof of concept phase, on battery life, speed, and comprehension. For a company, the problem comes to be the market size and breakeven point, along with the PR side. It seems the better comparison might be a standalone smart watch, or even the likes of an Echo but without the tie ins to Amazon, while being able to have it with you all the time, and having a few more features. I liked the magnetic connection and hot swappable batteries. It seems like an easy improvement, while not being quite as slick, is to put the battery with a physical connection onto the device and just have a magnetic connection instead of a magnetic battery. It would make less of an inside bump, lower the heat from magnetic energy transfer, and increase battery life from not having magnetic energy transfer. But that depends on where they want to be 1-3 years from now, and how they plan to get there. (Didn't know what he meant by OP. First search pulled up Dictionary.com, where the best first was Observational Post. But another result gave 2 options, the most common being Original Poster, but the likely meaning here being OverPowered. And that is what a smartphone is these days, that supercomputer in your pocket. Add a knife, scissors, toothpick and tweezers, and it could be a swiss army knife too. Just be careful using it as a hammer, and opening a bottle of wine with it is tough)
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Post by Lstream on Apr 17, 2024 8:51:18 GMT -8
I don’t really agree with the Watch comparison. It’s not hindered by dumb decisions like no screen, FORCING you into another data plan and so on. And the Watch can do way more than just answer questions that it gets frequently wrong. It can operate standalone, or tethered. Plus it has good battery life. It can be submerged in water. The Pin cannot. And so on and so on.
The Pin can do nothing that you can’t already do with your phone. Easier, faster and better. A Watch can. Without making you spend $24 per month on a subscription plan.
I think this company is doomed, and they deserve it.
EDIT - and what about cold climates with thick parkas? I doubt that magnetic approach is going to work.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 17, 2024 9:35:43 GMT -8
Some uses of the Watch are untethered, and those are the cases of likely buying a cell plan for it.
I don't think this product is right for me, or right for a lot of people. But it seems worthwhile to try to look at it with a different point of view, to see who would find it useful and what advantages it has, even if those seem to be very limited. Because sometimes those point out areas that can be improved, or areas that a competitor could come in.
New products are tough. Even looking in retrospect, sometimes it is tough to see the space. Like an iPad Pro. "I want the screen size and power of a laptop, but drop the keyboard and extra ports, even if I have to pay as much as a laptop to get it". But by easing into it from the lower end (price and power), and showing the benefit of a bit smaller form factor, it has made enough room for multiple iPad lines in that space, even without the pocket ability of a smart phone, and the tradeoffs that different models make (price, power, phone number, cell data/gps, etc).
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Post by Lstream on Apr 17, 2024 9:44:04 GMT -8
Yes, I know that the Watch has untethered use cases. But it’s YOUR choice if you want to buy another plan. Not some self serving business model that forces that cost on you.
I’m coming at this from a different perspective, given my background in starting venture backed companies. I’ve seen this story over and over again. These highly pedigreed founding teams that are overly full of themselves, who think they can overcome dumb ideas and implementations because of who they are. And lemming VC’s who jump in and blow a bunch of their LP’s money on nonsense. Which is what I think of this product.
And I’m not alone. The reviews are almost unanimous on how terrible this thing is. And poof goes $230M.
My other primary point is that if I was Apple, I would not be concerned about Ive and Altman setting out on a money burning mission to create an AI phone. Same movie as this is the likely outcome if they do. Just more money lit on fire.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Apr 17, 2024 11:40:08 GMT -8
And Apple decides to build a car and poof goes 10 Billion of shareholders dollars. And no, Apple has nothing to worry about with these new devices as they will simply buy them out if they ever start to gain any traction. Just think of the Pin as the very early stages of the communicator pin worn by the Star Trek crew. Think of Dick Tracy’s watch was the precursor to todays Apple Watch.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 17, 2024 12:39:39 GMT -8
" Just think of the Pin as the very early stages of the communicator pin worn by the Star Trek crew." So we owe the phone, the iPad and now the pin to Captain Kirk. Hopefully cook won't start working on a space shuttle!
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Post by Lstream on Apr 17, 2024 14:44:58 GMT -8
" Just think of the Pin as the very early stages of the communicator pin worn by the Star Trek crew." So we owe the phone, the iPad and now the pin to Captain Kirk. Hopefully cook won't start working on a space shuttle! Except all you can communicate with is some half-baked AI assistant. And not in real time with other humans like the Trekkies. You know, like an Apple Watch has been able to for years.
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