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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 9:12:00 GMT -8
This corresponds with the huge run up in Put OI of the past couple weeks. Could it be that Put interest is being driven by Bears, vs our original thesis that it was being driven by Bulls selling? Of course you need both sides, but one has to be more interested than the other to get pricing that entices the reluctant side. Is there a way to measure change in premiums? Buyers of puts are typically retail. A mountain of puts provides buying pressure near expiry, and I don't think retail knows something institutions don't. In fact, I welcome short interest. Someone talk me out of it.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 9:13:10 GMT -8
It sure feels that way to me. There are scant signs of new Apple product, exacerbating WS views that Apple is cyclical and it's only as good as its last hit, unlike AMZN and GOOG. WS is rewarding the future potential of the latter two as if the future has already arrived. On the flip side, past performance has never been discounted so much, even in the face of surveys that crown Apple as having the best ecosystem and most loyal customers. GOOG is more than double the price of AAPL and this is supposed to make sense on some level? GOOG failures are ignored and market share (sans profit) is celebrated. Are options partly to blame? Are the institutions staying on the sidelines earning premiums as they sit and wait for the next catalyst? I recall quite well the summer of 2006. The stock dropped over 40% and I was way underwater, as the media and WS kept focusing on Mac growth and concern over long term reliance on the iPod. It took a full year to get those losses back and another 6 months to move beyond $86 a share. WS is made up of short term holders and driven my media whores. I conclude that smart money are those who buy and then evaluate their positions every 3 years. If the company is still growing they keep buying. We are in a transition year like 2006. Mav made good points regarding a transition year in management and software in an earlier post. I agree with him. I remember the spring of 2006 well. That was when Shaw Wu and Robert Semple claimed that iPod shipments were way down. A couple weeks later Apple reported record iPod shipments. I've pretty much ignored "pro" analysts ever since.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 9:13:37 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on May 18, 2013 9:18:50 GMT -8
Apple moving away from Samsung has no correlation at all with being able to introduce a radical new iPhone. Samsung just builds what Apple tells them to build. Saying otherwise is like saying an architect will design an amazing new building because he switches out some trades.
And any statement about 2016 coming from anyone other than an insider, who would never say anything in the first place is a total fairy tale.
Keep repeating these fantasies if you want, but anyone with a clue will take none of it seriously.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 9:22:41 GMT -8
Twelve years ago I owned two houses and had two mortgages, at that time I also bought 1000 shares of AAPL. Today, I have five houses and four mortgages, with 768 shares of AAPL left over. . . . I'm I doing something wrong ? In 2004 I filed personal and corporate bankruptcy, then was divorced in 2005. I rented a room from my sister for two years. In November of 2004 I opened an options account with OptionsXpress with $500. Today I own (no mortgage) an historical register home completely furnished with period antiques, and several collector luxury cars from the 1930s. I'm looking forward to AAPL performing as it has. I'm tired of selling my cars (had 21 in 2010, have 8 today).
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 9:33:27 GMT -8
It will take at least three more years for Apple to move away from Samsung and introduce the next radical iPhone. 2016 is the year we will all remember like we did with 2007. Sponge, love you like a brother, but don't you think you need to improve your quarterly forecasting before you stretch it out three years?
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 9:38:17 GMT -8
Here's a pic of Red at the beach. Can you find him? Clue: He's not wearing anything on his head.
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Post by rickag on May 18, 2013 9:50:42 GMT -8
This corresponds with the huge run up in Put OI of the past couple weeks. Could it be that Put interest is being driven by Bears, vs our original thesis that it was being driven by Bulls selling? Of course you need both sides, but one has to be more interested than the other to get pricing that entices the reluctant side. Is there a way to measure change in premiums? Buyers of puts are typically retail. A mountain of puts provides buying pressure near expiry, and I don't think retail knows something institutions don't. In fact, I welcome short interest. Someone talk me out of it. So, if I understand(which I probably don't) For speculators shorting, kind of put a floor under the stock. If a short seller sells the stock @ $440 putting the money in their pocket using someone else's stock or equity. As AAPL goes down to say $430 the short seller buys the stock, gives the stock back to the lender and pockets the difference, in this case $10. For short sellers hedging an opposite trade, say buying stock or calls they limit downside risk. Say they bought AAPL at $400 and want to lock in profit. They sell short at $420 pocket the $420. If AAPL goes down to $410 they can buy the stock @ $410 and pocket the $10. If APPL goes up they can pay the lender with the stock they bought @ $390 and book the profit of $20 ($420 - $400). Similar scenario with calls except calls are leveraged, and much to complicated for my aged brain to decipher. So the 40 million in shorts as of 4/30 kind of put a floor under AAPL, right? How does this benefit the EOs ?
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 10:10:13 GMT -8
My earlier comment was in response to OI on puts.
The EO's are writing the puts. Near option expiry, they buy AAPL to drive the stock higher, making the puts expire worthless and keeping all of the option premium. Not a bad gig if you have the buying power to do this.
BTW, I don't see any appreciable increase in puts this June at the $500 strike, although the calls are coming down a bit.
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Post by sponge on May 18, 2013 11:21:30 GMT -8
Apple moving away from Samsung has no correlation at all with being able to introduce a radical new iPhone. Samsung just builds what Apple tells them to build. Saying otherwise is like saying an architect will design an amazing new building because he switches out some trades. And any statement about 2016 coming from anyone other than an insider, who would never say anything in the first place is a total fairy tale. Keep repeating these fantasies if you want, but anyone with a clue will take none of it seriously. I expected some sarcastic and condescending reply from you. If it were only that easy. Apple just tells Samsung what they want build and they build it. It does not work that way. By the way I have been involved in lots of building. In my function as a board member I approved over $150 million worth of building projects. The architects and the various trades have to work together, otherwise the building will not be build on time or correctly. In fact I think the architects are the most important people in building any structure. They are issues all the time that have to be resolved. I do have contacts that work for Apple in engineering. They spend many days away from their families as they travel to the Far East working on the latest products. Manufacturing issues come up constantly and they work closely with those building the parts. SJ pointed out that the iPhone 4 was planned two years before it was released. Designing chips that are efficient and fit well into a redesigned case takes time. The processor size impacts battery size and everything else inside the iPhone. It takes multiple steps to get it done right. Even today a friend who works for Google as a mechanical engineer and explained to me how much of a challenge they have with google glass. In fact he worked for a subcontractor many years ago. He helped design the camera when Apple added that feature to the first iMac. They had so many issues that he went back to Taiwan several times. That was just a small part of the whole product. Apple has to work closely with Samsung to ensure the chips are build in the numbers needed for future releases. Samsung knows at least two years in advance what the next iPhone may look like or do. I would not be surprised if they are not working with Apple today on the iPhone 6. They do make the screens, processors, and batteries for Apple. Even more reason that they work closely together to ensure enough components for the future. Manufacturing process is always changing to improve yields and capacity. This make the process even more complex and time consuming. I think 2016 is being too generous when it comes to a time line in which Apple relies less on Samsung as a partner.
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Post by sponge on May 18, 2013 11:24:51 GMT -8
It will take at least three more years for Apple to move away from Samsung and introduce the next radical iPhone. 2016 is the year we will all remember like we did with 2007. Sponge, love you like a brother, but don't you think you need to improve your quarterly forecasting before you stretch it out three years? LOL I have given up on that but simply just trust management.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 18, 2013 11:53:20 GMT -8
Here's a pic of Red at the beach. Can you find him? Clue: He's not wearing anything on his head. The ladies don't need thatch on the roof if there is a fire in the furnace. Sadly, your pilot light went out years ago... Just returned from Apple store. iPad 3 had a firmware problem after I dropped it.. Genius restored everything and iCloud did the rest. Smiles all around. Store modestly busy but everyone, staff and customers are waiting for the next big thing. Openly talking about the dry spell
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 18, 2013 12:00:35 GMT -8
Firmware isn't supposed to be easy to break. Year of Transition still in progress. But hey, WWDC is bound to have... something new. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 18, 2013 12:14:57 GMT -8
Right here, right now, feels like: The broad market is never coming down again -- ever. AAPL is never going up again -- ever. GLD and AAPL still dance partners. I'm surprised you're taking THAT kind of negative view on AAPL even as it continues to slowly rack up signs of regaining composure: - The actual fight it's having for the 50-day (which, per div-adjusting StockCharts, AAPL is holding). Pretty much a downtrend first unless you count March, which I don't because AAPL didn't even try to hold the line on the way down. - AAPL actually holding the 61.8% retrace level from its most recent MM (from 385/381.95) after around 7-10 trading days from peak depending on how you're counting (compare to: every other countertrend move this downtrend). - AAPL returning to making higher lows (385/381.95 low notwithstanding) with a sharp lower BB hook underway on the daily. - Weekly chart showing something even _resembling_ a fight to retake mid-channel (SMA-20). - AAPL having definitively escaped the Mother Downtrend Line. - Intermediate trend is actually still up by some "early detection" metrics. Sure, no AAPL 470 just yet. You won't see me making big bets on AAPL at this point at all. But the technical picture looks a lot less bleak these days. Call it more meh then bleh.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 18, 2013 12:21:17 GMT -8
Firmware isn't supposed to be easy to break. Year of Transition still in progress. But hey, WWDC is bound to have... something new. ;D I'm sticking with my story on why the firmware had to be restored. ( cough) Lets go WWDC.. Surprise us all
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Post by appledoc on May 18, 2013 12:29:26 GMT -8
Agree with Mav's last post. When we surged above 430, it felt different. This still feels different. Hopefully confirmation comes soon.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 14:21:53 GMT -8
Just returned from Apple store. iPad 3 had a firmware problem after I dropped it.. Genius restored everything and iCloud did the rest. Smiles all around. Store modestly busy but everyone, staff and customers are waiting for the next big thing. Openly talking about the dry spell LOL.
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Post by lovemyipad on May 18, 2013 15:23:55 GMT -8
Right here, right now, feels like: The broad market is never coming down again -- ever. AAPL is never going up again -- ever. GLD and AAPL still dance partners. I'm surprised you're taking THAT kind of negative view on AAPL even as it continues to slowly rack up signs of regaining composure: Hopefully my exhaustion = contrarian indicator. ;D
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Post by phoebear611 on May 18, 2013 15:41:47 GMT -8
Ah ... always the double standard as appleinsider points out: "Samsung earned industry praise for estimating that it expected to ship 10 million units of its flagship Galaxy S4 to carriers in its first month on the market, six months after the same journalists voiced disappointment that Apple had sold "only" 5 million iPhone 5's in its first 3 days." Here's the whole story .. it gets even better as comparisons are made between actual sales and channel stuffing...unreal: appleinsider.com/articles/13/05/17/10m-samsung-flagship-phones-in-28-days-a-record-5m-iphone-5-in-3-days-disappointingFYI - Business Insider and now CNN is carrying this story...it's making the rounds on the absurdity of it all.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 18, 2013 15:43:05 GMT -8
Let's go a bit OT since it's the weekend.
What _about_ that broader market? The accelerated uptrend has gone parabolic, assuming it wasn't already! Times like these I just can't rationalize the markets. GOOG having a multiple of 27 on nowhere near that percentage of earnings growth is just one "symptom".
I like that the markets are making new ATHs (IMHO, that's good in macro terms of 10+ years or whatever), but...
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Post by sponge on May 18, 2013 16:05:04 GMT -8
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Post by Mav on May 18, 2013 16:23:01 GMT -8
Dilger is at his best with articles like these.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 16:24:23 GMT -8
Daniel Eran Dilger is simply one of the finest commentators writing about Apple today. He's both colorful and incisive.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 16:25:02 GMT -8
Dilger is at his best with articles like these. You beat me to it...funny.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 17:24:32 GMT -8
Daniel Eran Dilger is simply one of the finest commentators writing about Apple today. He's both colorful and incisive. Has been for at least 8 years. At first his writing was about technical specs, which he understood at an engineering level. Over time his emphasis broadened to include the hypocrisy of the media.
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Post by Lstream on May 18, 2013 17:30:43 GMT -8
I expected some sarcastic and condescending reply from you. If it were only that easy. Apple just tells Samsung what they want build and they build it. It does not work that way. I don't enjoy or intend to be condescending, but I reach a breaking point with your posts. You portray yourself as having engineering or product development knowledge in mobility. And your posts are misleading and flat out wrong. You obviously have zero clue in this field.
Let me state the Samsung comment in another way. Samsung is a foundry. Do you know what that means? Sure does not sound like it. It means that the part is designed by Apple and manufactured by Samsung exactly as Apple specifies. No more. No less. Apple moving to another foundry does not enable some magical new phone the way you are attempting to imply. By the way I have been involved in lots of building. In my function as a board member I approved over $150 million worth of building projects. The architects and the various trades have to work together, otherwise the building will not be build on time or correctly. In fact I think the architects are the most important people in building any structure. They are issues all the time that have to be resolved. I do have contacts that work for Apple in engineering. They spend many days away from their families as they travel to the Far East working on the latest products. Manufacturing issues come up constantly and they work closely with those building the parts. All of this is routine and meaningless to your original point. You try and portray this stuff as if it is some kind of insight. It isn't. SJ pointed out that the iPhone 4 was planned two years before it was released. Designing chips that are efficient and fit well into a redesigned case takes time. The processor size impacts battery size and everything else inside the iPhone. It takes multiple steps to get it done right. Any first year engineering student knows this . More meaningless generalities.Even today a friend who works for Google as a mechanical engineer and explained to me how much of a challenge they have with google glass. In fact he worked for a subcontractor many years ago. He helped design the camera when Apple added that feature to the first iMac. They had so many issues that he went back to Taiwan several times. That was just a small part of the whole product. Apple has to work closely with Samsung to ensure the chips are build in the numbers needed for future releases. Samsung knows at least two years in advance what the next iPhone may look like or do. I would not be surprised if they are not working with Apple today on the iPhone 6. They do make the screens, processors, and batteries for Apple. Even more reason that they work closely together to ensure enough components for the future. Manufacturing process is always changing to improve yields and capacity. This make the process even more complex and time consuming. I think 2016 is being too generous when it comes to a time line in which Apple relies less on Samsung as a partner. Non sequitur extravaganza. This entire theme that Apple needs to de-couple from Samsung to create some great new phone is wrong. You have no facts or knowledge to back any of this theory up. All of these basic generalities in this response do nothing to make your case. All they do is make it obvious that you have basic superficial knowledge of what it takes to create a technology product. What don't you do yourself and the rest of us a favor and post on subjects where you have something useful to contribute. Or at least stop presenting your baseless opinions and conjectures as fact.
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Post by Mav on May 18, 2013 18:26:21 GMT -8
Wait, Apple multi-sources screens and at least many of its iOS device battery cells are from Sony...
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Post by Lstream on May 18, 2013 18:29:52 GMT -8
Wait, Apple multi-sources screens and at least many of its iOS device battery cells are from Sony... Ya, that too.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2013 19:06:54 GMT -8
Be sure to click the video link that does a nice job of simulating the potential of a REAL Apple iTV. Good timing for this article too, as I'm reading more and more that an Apple SDK WILL BE on the agenda at WWDC and that people are unplugging from cable providers at a growing rate. I should think content deals are going to be easier to come if the old paradigm continues to crumble. This will be a serious new product category for Apple. www.theverge.com/2013/5/15/4152194/apple-tv-concept-video-work-in-progress
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Post by Mav on May 18, 2013 19:48:44 GMT -8
In case you forgot (I did!) - We'll have a little "Apple news" in May after all - even if we've heard it all before. Tim Cook will be at the D Conference at the end of the month.
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