Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jun 23, 2013 23:47:58 GMT -8
Just noticed this news item from a few days ago: www.anandtech.com/show/7083/nvidia-to-license-kepler-and-future-gpu-ip-to-3rd-partiesThis could have interesting implications for Apple, or at least it opens up some options. Apple could, if it so chose, create its own GPUs (well, licensed, but still) for MacBooks going forward - do I hear "increased integration"? On a related note, I wouldn't mind Apple buying a significant stake in or keeping its eye on NVIDIA getting bought out by a competitor despite the theoretical antitrust controls in place...just in case. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 24, 2013 1:53:02 GMT -8
Europe puking (and Asia) ... all looks red ... AAPL looking a bit bruised in PM ... ugh.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 24, 2013 2:46:44 GMT -8
Buckle up...
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Post by appledoc on Jun 24, 2013 3:17:42 GMT -8
400 anyone?
At least we'll finally enter oversold on the daily today.
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Post by Nevyn on Jun 24, 2013 4:14:09 GMT -8
REFILE-RESEARCH ALERT-Apple: Jefferies cuts target price (Thomson Reuters)
June 24 (Reuters) - June 24 (Reuters) - Apple : * Jefferies cuts target price to $405 from $420; rating hold
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 5:00:05 GMT -8
Peter Misek at Jefferies burned his reputation a few years ago by hanging on to RIMM longer than it deserved. He's a hound dog for media time, mainly because he has more opinions than smarts.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 24, 2013 5:05:32 GMT -8
REFILE-RESEARCH ALERT-Apple: Jefferies cuts target price (Thomson Reuters) June 24 (Reuters) - June 24 (Reuters) - Apple : * Jefferies cuts target price to $405 from $420; rating hold Total waste. Not even 4%. That's normal volatility for a week. I'm suspecting somebody wants to make an even better buy here. |
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Post by lance on Jun 24, 2013 5:05:58 GMT -8
Apple needs that final bad guidance for the summer announced and over, so the stock can begin to regroup. I suspect that August and September will be the best months of the year to own this stock based on the dividend payout, bottom in profits close to in, and nearly every product looking for a reboot in the fall.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 5:14:21 GMT -8
BTW, Apple TV with HBO GO could be the game changer to get people more accustomed to watching WHAT they want WHEN they want. DirecTV folded after ONE day of social media pressure. I now have Netflix, HBO GO and Hulu Plus plus a gaggle of other content options. I'm now looking into OTA local stations w/antenna. It's a bigger deal than many recognize. If I find some way to keep HBO GO without DirecTV, I'll say sayonara to the latter. appadvice.com/appnn/2013/06/opinion-apple-is-finally-getting-serious-about-television |
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Post by macwire on Jun 24, 2013 5:49:14 GMT -8
U g l y
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Post by lance on Jun 24, 2013 5:50:17 GMT -8
www.businessinsider.com/apple-cuts-iphone-orders-says-analyst-2013-6 25-30 mil iphone summer, 50-55 million ie same as last year for xmas quarter. These are peter misek's estimates. Ironically he only cut his price target 15 dollars to 405. I mean it shows even the most negative analyst who releases notes intentionally at a negative market day can barely justify much lower prices for the stock.
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Post by macwire on Jun 24, 2013 5:56:21 GMT -8
This is just painful to watch.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 6:14:03 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 6:17:43 GMT -8
The stock is simply used as a ATM by the 40% that own it for short periods.
As institutional ownership dropped the volatile the stock has become. Down 15% in April, up 20% in March, now down 15% from those highs.
425 broken and 420, it was clear 400 would come. Never thought we would see this again, but now I know to give myself 20% margin of error.
This storm will pass.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 6:23:47 GMT -8
BTW, Apple TV with HBO GO could be the game changer to get people more accustomed to watching WHAT they want WHEN they want. DirecTV folded after ONE day of social media pressure. I now have Netflix, HBO GO and Hulu Plus plus a gaggle of other content options. I'm now looking into OTA local stations w/antenna. It's a bigger deal than many recognize. If I find some way to keep HBO GO without DirecTV, I'll say sayonara to the latter. appadvice.com/appnn/2013/06/opinion-apple-is-finally-getting-serious-about-televisionApple has always been serious about TV, just not vocally. I think Jobs' statement that Apple cracked the "problem" is beginning to take shape, and that is going around the pipes and directly to the creators via Apps. With HBO forcing (just by being available0 the carriers to cave, a flood of Apps should soon see the light of day. Then a tug-o-war between the carriers and the content providers will ensue over subscription fees with creators arguing AppleTV is just another carrier requiring its own carrier agreement. When that happens its game, set, match. As an aside, I no longer get any TV from Comcast, yet my remaining internet bill is higher than my "bundle price" of just a couple of years ago. I think the carriers see the handwriting on the wall, and are redefining their business model, setting fees to leverage being a dumb pipe. |
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mark
fire starter 
Posts: 1,649
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Post by mark on Jun 24, 2013 6:50:20 GMT -8
BTW, Apple TV with HBO GO could be the game changer to get people more accustomed to watching WHAT they want WHEN they want. DirecTV folded after ONE day of social media pressure. I now have Netflix, HBO GO and Hulu Plus plus a gaggle of other content options. I'm now looking into OTA local stations w/antenna. It's a bigger deal than many recognize. If I find some way to keep HBO GO without DirecTV, I'll say sayonara to the latter. appadvice.com/appnn/2013/06/opinion-apple-is-finally-getting-serious-about-televisionApple has always been serious about TV, just not vocally. I think Jobs' statement that Apple cracked the "problem" is beginning to take shape, and that is going around the pipes and directly to the creators via Apps. With HBO forcing (just by being available0 the carriers to cave, a flood of Apps should soon see the light of day. Then a tug-o-war between the carriers and the content providers will ensue over subscription fees with creators arguing AppleTV is just another carrier requiring its own carrier agreement. When that happens its game, set, match. As an aside, I no longer get any TV from Comcast, yet my remaining internet bill is higher than my "bundle price" of just a couple of years ago. I think the carriers see the handwriting on the wall, and are redefining their business model, setting fees to leverage being a dumb pipe. The biggest question about TV is - how much profit is available? If we take the entire universe of TV, there is a certain level of revenue/profit available for the total market. And I see it as 3 (or 4) primary segments: 1. Content production 2. Content distribution and the "pipes" 3. Added value services 4. Hardware Arguably, Apple will participate in segments 3 and 4 (and maybe to a limited extent in 2). How much revenue/profit is contained in the universe of those two segments? And what percentage of it will go to Apple? |
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Post by Nevyn on Jun 24, 2013 6:58:53 GMT -8
Is it time to buy a little bit? It seems like it.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 24, 2013 7:00:28 GMT -8
bud777: iPod Touch is not a product line. iPod is a product line. iPad is a product line. Mac is a product line.
You're right that Tim/Apple hint at a lot of things. History shows that with time, they become reality. It's Apple's way.
Nice try though, I appreciate the effort.
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Post by applemuncher on Jun 24, 2013 7:02:54 GMT -8
Apple discounting the iPhone 5 a few months before the release of the 5s is a bad sign for FYQ3 and Q4 sales and margin.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 24, 2013 7:16:25 GMT -8
I thought the huge buyback was supposed to prevent us from ever being this low again? I thought apple should have held on to its cash and I'm gonna stick with that... After all, I think the only thing that would've put a long-term floor in this most misunderstood and hated stock was having x% of its value in cash... Three years from now it could have nearly $400 per share in cash. With the buyback it won't, and there won't be that metric to help buoy the price. Instead, we will have an eps that is 15% higher, which might mean nothing in this age of PE compression.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 24, 2013 7:18:11 GMT -8
back to dining in hell in the 300s
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 7:18:47 GMT -8
The day is getting very ugly. In guess we will call it a victory if we close above 400 at this point.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 7:23:12 GMT -8
I thought the huge buyback was supposed to prevent us from ever being this low again? I thought apple should have held on to its cash and I'm gonna stick with that... After all, I think the only thing that would've put a long-term floor in this most misunderstood and hated stock was having x% of its value in cash... Three years from now it could have nearly $400 per share in cash. With the buyback it won't, and there won't be that metric to help buoy the price. Instead, we will have an eps that is 15% higher, which might mean nothing in this age of PE compression. You can't look at it based on a 30 point drop. The buy back won't show it's truth strength until we see how many shares were bought at this price and how many shares were issued in the next three years. We must be patient. We have been here before. Yes we all thought the buy back would prevent this. But I think Apple did it for a bigger reason then to protect the short term volatile nature of this stock. |
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Post by gtrplyr on Jun 24, 2013 7:29:31 GMT -8
Long term holder here ..... it's getting really hard to watch this . After 10 years I'm starting to think I've had enough. NOTHING that Cook can say or do at this point seems to help the sentiment. I simply can't understand why the street is so negative on this stock as the valuation is simply ridiculous but it just seems to get worse.
I guess I should have seen the writing on the wall when we were at 700 ... I feel very foolish now.
The only reason I haven't sold everything yet is I keep asking myself "How much worse can it get ?" ....
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Post by appledoc on Jun 24, 2013 7:32:09 GMT -8
I thought the huge buyback was supposed to prevent us from ever being this low again? I thought apple should have held on to its cash and I'm gonna stick with that... After all, I think the only thing that would've put a long-term floor in this most misunderstood and hated stock was having x% of its value in cash... Three years from now it could have nearly $400 per share in cash. With the buyback it won't, and there won't be that metric to help buoy the price. Instead, we will have an eps that is 15% higher, which might mean nothing in this age of PE compression. Buybacks help over the long term. Day to day there's no discernible benefit. They can't buy enough shares on any given day to support price. |
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Post by rickag on Jun 24, 2013 7:32:49 GMT -8
Apple discounting the iPhone 5 a few months before the release of the 5s is a bad sign for FYQ3 and Q4 sales and margin. Nitpick: Apple hasn't discounted the iPhone on their website. Some retailers are discounting, but the reasons are debatable. |
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Post by macwire on Jun 24, 2013 7:41:53 GMT -8
Long term holder here ..... it's getting really hard to watch this . After 10 years I'm starting to think I've had enough. NOTHING that Cook can say or do at this point seems to help the sentiment. I simply can't understand why the street is so negative on this stock as the valuation is simply ridiculous but it just seems to get worse. I guess I should have seen the writing on the wall when we were at 700 ... I feel very foolish now. The only reason I haven't sold everything yet is I keep asking myself "How much worse can it get ?" .... It could get worse. Some people hypothesized that aapl would go through a msft like negamophesis when it moved from hyper growth to maturity and an attempt at being a blue chip value dividend paying stock. I don't need to tell you how that played out. A lot laugh it off. I still do. But it's food for thought anyways. |
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 7:43:32 GMT -8
Long term holder here ..... it's getting really hard to watch this . After 10 years I'm starting to think I've had enough. NOTHING that Cook can say or do at this point seems to help the sentiment. I simply can't understand why the street is so negative on this stock as the valuation is simply ridiculous but it just seems to get worse. I guess I should have seen the writing on the wall when we were at 700 ... I feel very foolish now. The only reason I haven't sold everything yet is I keep asking myself "How much worse can it get ?" .... Part of the reason you feel bad is because we hit 700. Otherwise you are still way up over 10 years. I still think we will see 700 next year. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 7:44:51 GMT -8
Misek's estimates are quite similar to my own, just a tad more conservative for FQ4. Of course, we know that analysts prefer being on the shady side of wrong, as opposed to the sunny side. I'm modeling 32,900,000 (average QoQ growth rate of prior 3 FQ4 results = +18%), and 55,900,000 for FQ1/2014 (average QoQ growth rate of prior 3 FQ1 results = +70%). I'm comfortable with these growth rates because they represent late September/early October launch dates. Further, I think iOS7 is going to be a big deal, ala SIRI on the 4S (116% QoQ growth rate during FQ1/2011), so 70% QoQ might be conservative. iPhone 4 launch October 15% QoQ growth rate iPhone 4S launch September 116% QoQ growth rate iPhone 5 launch September 77% QoQ growth rate. Note that QoQ growth is negatively impacted by an October launch. |
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Post by bud777 on Jun 24, 2013 7:44:58 GMT -8
bud777: iPod Touch is not a product line. iPod is a product line. iPad is a product line. Mac is a product line. You're right that Tim/Apple hint at a lot of things. History shows that with time, they become reality. It's Apple's way. Nice try though, I appreciate the effort. My apologies Tuffet. If you will review my posts, I was simply asking you to acknowledge that everyone is guessing here, everyone makes blanket statements to some degree, and everyone deserves to be treated with respect. I asked you to refrain from using disdain when you disagree. We are all responsible for the tone of the board, and it is just unpleasant to read that sort of post. But, perhaps I am being unfair to you. Not everyone is capable of this kind of restraint, especially when they have seen large losses. If you cannot control it, let me once again offer that you vent to me privately in a PM. Ii promise to listen to you and respond. |
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