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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 10:25:01 GMT -8
Gartner predicts 296 million iOS/MacoS devices sold during 2013. tinyurl.com/iOS-surpasses-WindowsOS The link title is mine, as I see Apple OS devices surpassing Windows OS devices in 2014. My current estimate for total Apple devices sold during calendar 2013 is 290,000,000, so I'm feeling pretty good about my revenue forecast (low based on Gartner unit estimates).
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 10:32:34 GMT -8
Melting up lower volume then the selloff. This tells me forced margin selling with little new money coming in.
Not a good sign for the short term.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 10:33:51 GMT -8
Dragonfly dojis are "better" than hammers, IIRC. But all depends on if there's followthrough.
I did buy some small SPY and LVS calls for momo purposes. Because I'm always late to the party that way.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 10:34:51 GMT -8
Resolution independence does require auto-aspect ratio programming. If anyone can help with that it's Apple, but...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 10:35:25 GMT -8
The share buy back is $60 billion over 3 years. The dividend payout is at least 30 billion over 3 years. So the share buy back only reduces the cash per share to $360 by your estimate. Not too much and not too far from your estimate of $400 cash per share. I hope you are not objecting as well to the dividend payments. You have to factor the number of shares that Apple will be buying, that if not bought will further dilute shareholder equity (RSUs and employee options). I'm modeling a reduction in fully diluted shares of no more than 1,000,000 per quarter, and will not cry at all if the number is higher than that.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 10:38:35 GMT -8
Resolution independence does require auto-aspect ratio programming. If anyone can help with that it's Apple, but... Apple was awarded a patent several years ago for resolution independence. I can't help but believe Apple has filed addendums to the original patent in the meantime.
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Post by rickag on Jun 24, 2013 10:59:03 GMT -8
The share buy back is $60 billion over 3 years. The dividend payout is at least 30 billion over 3 years. So the share buy back only reduces the cash per share to $360 by your estimate. Not too much and not too far from your estimate of $400 cash per share. I hope you are not objecting as well to the dividend payments. You have to factor the number of shares that Apple will be buying, that if not bought will further dilute shareholder equity (RSUs and employee options). I'm modeling a reduction in fully diluted shares of no more than 1,000,000 per quarter, and will not cry at all if the number is higher than that. "As part of this program, the Board has increased its share repurchase authorization to $60 billion from the $10 billion level announced last year. This is the largest single share repurchase authorization in history and is expected to be executed by the end of calendar 2015. Apple also expects to utilize about $1 billion annually to net-share-settle vesting restricted stock units." The original $10 billion was for preventing share creep. The increase of $50 billion should reduce diluted shares. 1 million shares / quarter over 3 years would only be 12 million shares total. Maybe my math or logic is faulty, could be, I am old. but $50 billion divided by 12 million shares means Apple would be paying $4,167 per share. Help me, I am confused.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 24, 2013 11:18:30 GMT -8
MSFT up 2%, AAPL down 2%. Just another day.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 11:28:06 GMT -8
You have to factor the number of shares that Apple will be buying, that if not bought will further dilute shareholder equity (RSUs and employee options). I'm modeling a reduction in fully diluted shares of no more than 1,000,000 per quarter, and will not cry at all if the number is higher than that. "As part of this program, the Board has increased its share repurchase authorization to $60 billion from the $10 billion level announced last year. This is the largest single share repurchase authorization in history and is expected to be executed by the end of calendar 2015. Apple also expects to utilize about $1 billion annually to net-share-settle vesting restricted stock units." The original $10 billion was for preventing share creep. The increase of $50 billion should reduce diluted shares. 1 million shares / quarter over 3 years would only be 12 million shares total. Maybe my math or logic is faulty, could be, I am old. but $50 billion divided by 12 million shares means Apple would be paying $4,167 per share. Help me, I am confused. Assuming straight-line repurchase over 33 months and average PPS of $445 (in FQ3 2013), Apple could reduce diluted shares by approx. 12M this quarter. Add back 2M shares for stock options this quarter and maybe they reduce share count down to 936M shares.
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Post by macwire on Jun 24, 2013 11:34:28 GMT -8
Dragonfly doji forming on indexes fwiw... Good? Bad? Neutral? I used to study under a Zen Master in my earlier years... The million dollar question. So it's actually more of a hammer at this point but essentially you have an opening and closing price with a huge long tail indicating there was a sell off and claw/fight back. I think the mistake a lot of people make with technicals of looking at candles is looking at them in a vacuum without looking for confirmation of a trend top or reversal. Me personally I use it to look at levels and try to work out trades that I think are better odds in my favor. Sometimes works sometimes doesn't. Still below 100 day moving average and our 10/50 day are preparing for a death cross.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 24, 2013 11:38:19 GMT -8
You have to factor the number of shares that Apple will be buying, that if not bought will further dilute shareholder equity (RSUs and employee options). I'm modeling a reduction in fully diluted shares of no more than 1,000,000 per quarter, and will not cry at all if the number is higher than that. "As part of this program, the Board has increased its share repurchase authorization to $60 billion from the $10 billion level announced last year. This is the largest single share repurchase authorization in history and is expected to be executed by the end of calendar 2015. Apple also expects to utilize about $1 billion annually to net-share-settle vesting restricted stock units." The original $10 billion was for preventing share creep. The increase of $50 billion should reduce diluted shares. 1 million shares / quarter over 3 years would only be 12 million shares total. Maybe my math or logic is faulty, could be, I am old. but $50 billion divided by 12 million shares means Apple would be paying $4,167 per share. Help me, I am confused. No, you are correct. 1M per quarter is silly and makes no sense.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 11:38:53 GMT -8
In my best Crapshoot(Don Rickles) voice, " Tim, make a deal" with NTT Docomo and China Mobile. Except, as it stands now, not sure even deals would support AAPL very much until sales numbers roll in. This selloff isn't about Apple's performance, its about the disappearance of cheap Fed Funds. A Docomo and/or China Mobile deal would have little if any impact right now. An announcement anytime after earnings would be much better timed.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 11:44:31 GMT -8
$400M a quarter in buybacks, with $50B in straight-up, beyond-anti-dilutive authorization.
Adjust by a factor of about 8-12, I'd say, depending on share price. Apple plans to return a total of $100B in capital in about 2.5 years' time. So if it has $40B left to buy back stock, at today's prices that's 99M shares over approx. 10 remaining calendar quarters.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 24, 2013 11:44:56 GMT -8
"As part of this program, the Board has increased its share repurchase authorization to $60 billion from the $10 billion level announced last year. This is the largest single share repurchase authorization in history and is expected to be executed by the end of calendar 2015. Apple also expects to utilize about $1 billion annually to net-share-settle vesting restricted stock units." The original $10 billion was for preventing share creep. The increase of $50 billion should reduce diluted shares. 1 million shares / quarter over 3 years would only be 12 million shares total. Maybe my math or logic is faulty, could be, I am old. but $50 billion divided by 12 million shares means Apple would be paying $4,167 per share. Help me, I am confused. Assuming straight-line repurchase over 33 months and average PPS of $445 (in FQ3 2013), Apple could reduce diluted shares by approx. 12M this quarter. Add back 2M shares for stock options this quarter and maybe they reduce share count down to 936M shares. I have 12 million in my modeling to try and get an EPS estimate for next quarter...Ugh. tough.. And now Apple is yielding a solid 3.00%
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Post by appledoc on Jun 24, 2013 11:47:12 GMT -8
The only technical positive right now is a bounce off the weekly lower BB. Everything else is total crap.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 11:47:29 GMT -8
I think I assumed 10M in share repurchase for the quarter. Of course that only makes a little over 1% worth of difference.
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Post by macwire on Jun 24, 2013 12:02:39 GMT -8
Shit. Ass. Close.
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stub
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Post by stub on Jun 24, 2013 13:21:47 GMT -8
Can somebody tell me why (of all days) Tim and the gang decided to select the start date for this Stock Bonus against the S&P 500 on June 21, 2013 (the Summer Solstice)? This timing seems suspiciously indicative of something but I'm not sure what. And I think it's imprtant to note because it could be a clue to the near term stock price levels. As in, instead of the Stock Bonus time frame being Aug 24, 2012 to Aug 24, 2013... it's Aug 24, 2013 to June 21, 2013 (which isn't subject to the Comparison to the S&P 500). then this other little piece from June 21, 2013 (the Summer Solstice) to Aug 24, 2013 (which is). Are these guys Pagen's or something? Are they fostering delusions of being ancient Celtic Wizards? Anybody? here's the actual 8k filing, if you're interested: secfilings.com/searchresultswide.aspx?link=1&filingid=9366202
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 24, 2013 13:27:15 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jun 24, 2013 14:11:14 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 24, 2013 14:41:35 GMT -8
400 anyone? At least we'll finally enter oversold on the daily today. And potentially embed there (again)... I don't have one good thing to say about the current technicals. No divergences. Nothing. Fugly.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 14:59:22 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 15:52:09 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 24, 2013 17:01:47 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 24, 2013 17:06:04 GMT -8
Is it time to buy a little bit? It seems like it. IMHO, stock only.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 17:18:40 GMT -8
IMHO, not even stock.
(Cue the Last Bull (Regular) Standing alarms)
There is an absolute crisis of confidence/sentiment in AAPL just as the markets threaten to correct further. I see AAPL in "falling knife" mode. While downside is theoretically limited (there's only so far AAPL can go before the price gets beyond ridiculous), it's not like you have to wait too long for confirmation of new direction. Between 381 and 419, purgatory; below 381, check old support levels; above 419, maybe there's some stability/rangebound possibility depending on what the signs show at that time. I have an early warning trendline (potential for micro bullish composure) that's at about 430 right now, but it seems so far away.
Obviously, just my opinion, YMMV, and AAPL has a reputation for being extremely unpredictable.
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Post by bud777 on Jun 24, 2013 18:53:06 GMT -8
IMHO, not even stock. (Cue the Last Bull (Regular) Standing alarms) There is an absolute crisis of confidence/sentiment in AAPL just as the markets threaten to correct further. I see AAPL in "falling knife" mode. While downside is theoretically limited (there's only so far AAPL can go before the price gets beyond ridiculous), it's not like you have to wait too long for confirmation of new direction. Between 381 and 419, purgatory; below 381, check old support levels; above 419, maybe there's some stability/rangebound possibility depending on what the signs show at that time. I have an early warning trendline (potential for micro bullish composure) that's at about 430 right now, but it seems so far away. Obviously, just my opinion, YMMV, and AAPL has a reputation for being extremely unpredictable. After mortgaging the house to the tune of $400,000 and buying 900 shares at 435, I had to tell my wife that the shares had dropped to 400. She just coolly said, shouldn't we be buying more then?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 19:02:00 GMT -8
That is both a cool, and a useful feature.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 19:03:36 GMT -8
That's either a joke or a call to caution, bud.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 19:15:25 GMT -8
OK, just finished entering OI numbers from today's action.
First of all, Friday was June expiry and as it is with all monthly expiries the system expelled a ton of contracts.
Call OI fell 399K (Week over Week) Put OI fell 175K (Week over Week)
These numbers reflect that market expectations were overwhelmingly Bullish. Those that got hit hard weren't alone, by a long shot.
So how did this impact July 5 Max Pain?
At the Close on Friday (includes all June expiry contracts since inception) was $420 - $425. New contracts written today have a Max Pain of $405 - $410.
Eliminating legacy contracts seems to have a significant impact on Max Pain and might explain those weeks when Max Pain, as a theory, seems to have broken.
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