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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 1:45:00 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 1:47:41 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 25, 2013 1:53:40 GMT -8
I feel TC can get the folks at AAPL to deliver what SJ got them to deliver - the big difference is that SJ (assuming you read the Isaacson book) got them to deliver it quicker. He made people perform in what some would consider an impossible time frame. But it got done. As an example, it should have NEVER taken as long as it did to debut the mini iPad. Here is where (I personally feel) AAPL falls behind. Granted the products are superior - but timing is not good. It has been said in past - too much time elapses before anything comes out that can possibly move the needle particularly at a time that is so critical here. Pandora, Spotify...and it takes AAPL how long to come out with something similar? This is what weighs heavy on my mind with TC. It looks like we are playing catch up....maybe because we are. The frustrating thing is that I know that the folks at AAPL are immensely better than what they are demonstrating - and the buck stops with leadership. He needs to get timing better because right now, ... well ..., quite frankly it's lacking and it sucks. Just one person's opinion.
Good luck to all today ~ but especially the longs.
One last comment - I don't care how slim a phone is or how large the screen is - if it is out of power, it's useless and nothing else matters. AAPL - if anyone there reads this - get the damn battery life right - get it extended. THAT would be a tremendous step toward getting it right!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 2:04:47 GMT -8
One thing that people should consider is the benefit of having all the iOS devices being updated at the same time: All new iOS devices now ship with a new version of iOS software.
Previously the iPad was introduced in the March/April timeframe and didn't receive any new software features until 6 months later when the latest version of iOS was released in the fall.
Now the next iPads (iPad 5 & iPad mini 2) will be released in the fall alongside iOS 7, and any secret software features yet to be revealed that have been held back for new devices.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 3:17:20 GMT -8
A gap up would not be constructive here. Would have rather seen a gap down and reversal.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 25, 2013 4:12:40 GMT -8
Looks like you may get your wish, Doc I have one quote system saying it is up $2.50 and another saying it is down .54 No clue on what is correct at this point ... But it doesn't matter because it won't stay there for too long anyway!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 4:32:01 GMT -8
On a follow up to Phoebes.
The positive reaction to the new MacBook Air (it's the battery, stupid) means that Apple gets it and between software and hardware, one of the new iPhones will likely lead with battery life.
I have to agree with the perception that the pace of new products has slowed. I say perception because really, between last fall and now, we're missing only new iPads. Apple rightly waited for Haswell to update the Macs.
I wonder if the doubling-down on secrecy has impacted the pace, limiting the team sizes to keep the silence? Or, is Apple really missing the imperative of pushing harder and faster? To be fair to Tim, the disruption with channel supply partners is probably half the explanation for why there's a chance we won't even see a retina iPad mini until 2014.
I maintain that 70% of our frustration belongs not to Apple but Wall Street, an institution more willing to support GOOG and AMZN than the demonstrated success of AAPL. GOOG has a P/E of 26 on the back of search and advertising and failed hardware products? That's F'ing ridiculous. And I don't even want to make my blood pressure rise re: AMZN>
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 25, 2013 4:39:58 GMT -8
A gap up would not be constructive here. Would have rather seen a gap down and reversal. Yes and no. Gap up would open the possibility of an island bottom. But, it would also leave an unfilled gap to torment us -- okay, torment me. Concur that I would rather see a gap down with a (strong) reversal, and ideally, a green close.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 4:51:48 GMT -8
A gap up would not be constructive here. Would have rather seen a gap down and reversal. Yes and no. Gap up would open the possibility of an island bottom. But, it would also leave an unfilled gap to torment us -- okay, torment me. Concur that I would rather see a gap down with a (strong) reversal, and ideally, a green close. Exactly. No damn unfilled downside gaps anymore. We've had some strong RDRs with follow through lately. It would be great to get another and bullish divergence on the daily MACDh.
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icam
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Post by icam on Jun 25, 2013 4:57:41 GMT -8
I feel TC can get the folks at AAPL to deliver what SJ got them to deliver - the big difference is that SJ (assuming you read the Isaacson book) got them to deliver it quicker. He made people perform in what some would consider an impossible time frame. But it got done. As an example, it should have NEVER taken as long as it did to debut the mini iPad. Here is where (I personally feel) AAPL falls behind. Granted the products are superior - but timing is not good. It has been said in past - too much time elapses before anything comes out that can possibly move the needle particularly at a time that is so critical here. Pandora, Spotify...and it takes AAPL how long to come out with something similar? This is what weighs heavy on my mind with TC. It looks like we are playing catch up....maybe because we are. The frustrating thing is that I know that the folks at AAPL are immensely better than what they are demonstrating - and the buck stops with leadership. He needs to get timing better because right now, ... well ..., quite frankly it's lacking and it sucks. Just one person's opinion. Good luck to all today ~ but especially the longs. One last comment - I don't care how slim a phone is or how large the screen is - if it is out of power, it's useless and nothing else matters. AAPL - if anyone there reads this - get the damn battery life right - get it extended. THAT would be a tremendous step toward getting it right! I hear ya Phoebes. Under Tim Cook, Apples product innovations have been evolutionary rather than revolutionary. And they've been way too slow in executing and delivering them. Also, Apples "service products" product lines expansion/introductions have been major disappointments (for example payments, and iCloud). After almost 2 years as the CEO, Cooks presentation manner has finally improved, but the quality of his leadership of the company is still TBD, which isn't a good thing.
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Post by macwire on Jun 25, 2013 5:45:13 GMT -8
FADEDDDDDDDDDD
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Post by nagrani on Jun 25, 2013 6:07:08 GMT -8
BLOOOOOOWS
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 6:07:10 GMT -8
This guy makes sense
Like I’ve said (in a recent blog response to Sacto_Joe), it’s undeniably a fair question -- to the extent the S4 disappointment is further evidence of high-end smart phone market saturation, how is that a positive for Apple, which presently plays only in that space?
The answer, I believe, lies in realizing that a saturating high-end smartphone market (in the sense of dwindling first time buyers), doesn’t mean no demand -- rather it means increasingly demand will be driven by replacement buyers. However, the incredible rate at which high-end smartphone adoption has ramped up has meant that replacement demand hasn’t caught up as first adopter demand has slowed. I believe this has exacerbated the perceived disappointing demand for the iPhone 5, and even more so the S4 (realize that the most obvious/pre-disposed Samsung buyers likely already bought their SIIIs and Note IIs w/in 12 months from the S4 launch!).
This double whammy market dynamic, however, should resolve itself for Apple, at least with respect to replacement demand catching up, as soon as the coming 5S cycle, which will benefit from the massive 4S adoption from holiday 2011, coming up on replacement in holiday 2013. Longer-term, in the matured high-end smartphone market, I believe Apple will find iPhone growth at sustainable rates (and importantly stable margins) from, in no particular order: (a) reliable replacement demand from a loyal installed base, (b) net positive churn (more Android users switching than vice versa) and (c) organic growth in the high-end smartphone “pie” (driven by continued demographic growth of the middle class in EMs and by 3-to-4G adoption).
So, I must say, this is playing out exactly like I’ve been expecting:
First analysts (and some blogosphere pundits) simplistically expect iPhone 5 demand to grow at the same rate as for the iPhone 4S, and is therefor negatively surprised notwithstanding solid iPhone 5 demand. In a classic knee jerk, they quickly attribute this to alleged lack of iPhone innovation and increased competition, which leads them to predict blowout S4 demand (simply switching favors from the iPhone 5).
Then comes the second surprise -- disappointing S4 demand!
Next, I predict, will come the third surprise -- iPhone 5S demand that exceeds expectations. That, I believe, will answer a lot of question marks on Apple (and I’m betting, on its share price). I predict we will start getting positive noises from Asia (Digitimes and the like) beginning late summer/fall, e.g., supply chain data showing higher than anticipated production, etc.
As I began this post, I would reemphasize that iPhone prospects in a maturing high-end smartphone market remains an open question. I’m bullish, but that’s just my view.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 25, 2013 6:09:08 GMT -8
unrealized losses on this quarter's P&L:With $106 billion of long term assets, Apple is expected to lose a figure in the billions on its balance sheet; but so long as it holds its assets to maturity, it does not make a realized loss.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 25, 2013 6:17:09 GMT -8
On Tuesday, Oppenheimer announced that it has lowered its estimates on tech giant, Apple Inc. (AAPL).
The firm has cut Apple’s price target to $460, which would be a 12% increase from the stock’s current price of $402.54.
Analysts have also lowered estimates on the company as a result of lower iPhone demand. Oppenheimer currently has an “Outperform” rating on Apple.
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Post by lance on Jun 25, 2013 6:20:49 GMT -8
There is no doubt Apple is a quarter by quarter stock now. Its not a long term hold and hope and assume big growth play. Product cycle dictates earnings and the stock.
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 6:21:48 GMT -8
I think there is a big effort by the big boys to drop aapl at this point. It is easier for them to make money if it dropped to 380 again and then ride it out to 485 in four months, vs 440 to 500.
The problem is that the 40% of retail is thinking the same way and there are only so many sellers. Big battle between bears and bulls over 400.
Sadly we should be ready for the bears to win and see sub 390 soon. Otherwise we just move along and not see above 430 until earnings come out.
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Post by macwire on Jun 25, 2013 6:33:19 GMT -8
There is no doubt Apple is a quarter by quarter stock now. Its not a long term hold and hope and assume big growth play. Product cycle dictates earnings and the stock. Picking a bottom is a fool's game. And it's not in yet. It acted constructively in the mid to low 400s but once support fell out it rolled over like a dog. Now testing it's lows from yesterday. Fading every gap up has been a profitable trade. Edit: bounced off it. That's constructive.
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 7:28:10 GMT -8
Well I recalculated growth rates and updated my new ATH to 2015.
I was wrong about 2013 being a transition year. I think it will now take two years before Apple sees 20% growth in iPhone again calendar YOY.
Only then will WS give us a p/e over 12. We will need a new product as well. But that may not happen until 2014 and it will take a year for WS to understand its income and profit implications.
The good news is that we have plenty of time to save money and invest in aapl at bargain basement prices.
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 9:01:55 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 9:16:55 GMT -8
I'm thin on theories here, but I think fund managers are window dressing this week for quarterly reports, and having Apple on the books is nothing to brag about. Next week will test the theory.
Apple should report $7.50+ for FQ3 2013. Higher sales YOY but the margin will be lucky to crack 37%. And that EPS WAG is based on 936M shares.
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Post by macwire on Jun 25, 2013 9:27:11 GMT -8
On an intraday basis could be heading toward a 399 triple bottomed. General dont hold ...
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 9:31:52 GMT -8
I'm thin on theories here, but I think fund managers are window dressing this week for quarterly reports, and having Apple on the books is nothing to brag about. Next week will test the theory. Apple should report $7.50+ for FQ3 2013. Higher sales YOY but the margin will be lucky to crack 37%. And that EPS WAG is based on 936M shares. agreed However we could remain in the gutter well past earnings at this point. My bigger concern is if we drop further from here as we get closer to earnings like we did in April. There is plenty of upside in goog, amzn and other crazy stocks. It will be a long summer .
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 25, 2013 9:34:42 GMT -8
The bright side: only a few more quarters of this until AAPL is at $12/share and the dividend is 100%
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 9:43:18 GMT -8
There is plenty of upside in goog, amzn and other crazy stocks. If you believe this, coupled with your bearish position on AAPL, you should be rotating NOW, at least during the short term.
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Post by macwire on Jun 25, 2013 9:48:06 GMT -8
There is plenty of upside in goog, amzn and other crazy stocks. If you believe this, coupled with your bearish position on AAPL, you should be rotating NOW, at least during the short term. lol Aapls gonna push late at close to green and he will be bullish again.
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 10:14:40 GMT -8
There is plenty of upside in goog, amzn and other crazy stocks. If you believe this, coupled with your bearish position on AAPL, you should be rotating NOW, at least during the short term. I can't put the my sarcastic face on the iPhone. Even if we hit 485 anytime soon I am still bearish for the next two Years.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 10:18:08 GMT -8
If you believe this, coupled with your bearish position on AAPL, you should be rotating NOW, at least during the short term. I can't put the my sarcastic face on the iPhone. Even if we hit 485 anytime soon I am still bearish for the next two Years. Ya, but bearish for you is probably $600 in 9 months. Actually being bearish would be sub $400 in 9 months.
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stub
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The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Jun 25, 2013 10:23:38 GMT -8
I feel TC can get the folks at AAPL to deliver what SJ got them to deliver - the big difference is that SJ (assuming you read the Isaacson book) got them to deliver it quicker. He made people perform in what some would consider an impossible time frame. But it got done. As an example, it should have NEVER taken as long as it did to debut the mini iPad. Here is where (I personally feel) AAPL falls behind. Granted the products are superior - but timing is not good. It has been said in past - too much time elapses before anything comes out that can possibly move the needle particularly at a time that is so critical here. Pandora, Spotify...and it takes AAPL how long to come out with something similar? This is what weighs heavy on my mind with TC. It looks like we are playing catch up....maybe because we are. The frustrating thing is that I know that the folks at AAPL are immensely better than what they are demonstrating - and the buck stops with leadership. He needs to get timing better because right now, ... well ..., quite frankly it's lacking and it sucks. Just one person's opinion. Good luck to all today ~ but especially the longs. One last comment - I don't care how slim a phone is or how large the screen is - if it is out of power, it's useless and nothing else matters. AAPL - if anyone there reads this - get the damn battery life right - get it extended. THAT would be a tremendous step toward getting it right! But hold it... remember, SJ was sick as a dog for the last 10 years of so of the company. Tim was the one REALLY runnin' things back then anyway so I think the explaination of this is something completely different and less obvious. The stock price started to fall in late Sept 2012 and never looked back. The iPad Mini entrance is announced late Oct 2012, comes out Nov 2012. So if this is about products being late out of the cue, shouldn't the stock price have started to fall much later than Nov 2012? Remember the iPad mini wasn't exactly a flop. Now here's what I believe is the real answer to AAPL's big pullback... The Instututional money starts to pull out of Apple in late Sept 2012 and comes to rescue of the Ailing Residental Real Estate Market. In conjunction with AB 284 and a host of other Federal Legislation, Banks can now hide more of their inventory creating a supply and demand bottleneck. This is a recipie for raising house prices, which will repair the ailing US Banking sector. Because of the new laws, Hedge Fund guys can now take this liquid cash that they've pulled out of AAPL and buy up lots of only the best real estate for a 25% discount PLUS a tax break. If not for this legislation this would have been called "price fixing" which is illeagal, in the good ole days. Apple has gotten the nod from the Powers-that-be to be the pace car and final winner of the Smart Phone revolution (which hasn't happened yet). And they should be because they're the best qualified. And because of all this, they have PLENTY OF MONEY. So now they have hold up their end of the bargain and let their stock price eat crow in near term, while the Institutuial Investors temporarily pull their money out and help resurect the US Banking Sector/Economy. Don't worry, that money will start to come back in soon, much of it is on the sidelines which will actually help AAPL and the company in long term. in the meantime: Apple is taking the oppourtunity to re-group and be ready for the next blitz. Much needed. Stock buy back oppourtunity's abound. Which is actually good for the stock price and the company in the longer term. WHEN that money comes back in it'll come fast and furious. Just LIKE the current residental real estate market. So keep your barrel clean and your powder dry. I could be wrong, but my take is: look for the big turn around to come in late August 2013, or sooner. Too much to go into as to why that's my guess but it's based on this premature taking of 1m shares of stock by the corp officers a lit-tle early. (see recent 8k filing) Remember, they want to take those things while the stock price is low for tax purposes. They'll save a bundle.
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 10:25:39 GMT -8
I can't put the my sarcastic face on the iPhone. Even if we hit 485 anytime soon I am still bearish for the next two Years. Ya, but bearish for you is probably $600 in 9 months. Actually being bearish would be sub $400 in 9 months. Actually my bearish view is that we will see 525-550 in 12 months. I no longer see 500 this year.
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