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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 10:48:01 GMT -8
This site , like all others, calculates Max Pain using all contracts written since an Expiry first becomes available. I forget who it was that pointed out that the Max Pain being published ($465), when I bought $450/$455 BCS, had been coming down, albeit slowly. But his observation was correct.
The problem with Max Pain calculations (as I see it) is that they don't take into account that current sentiment is getting lost in the tide of all previous contracts (written when sentiment was different). A great example of this can be seen in today's published Max Pain by . On Friday this site showed Max Pain to be at the $425 Strike (July 5 expiry). Today's Max Pain is showing as $420.
Factoring out legacy contracts I show 'current sentiment' Max Pain at $405 - $410.
I think the integration of current sentiment with legacy sentiment could be the explanation for those occasions when Max Pain calculations breakdown. As it is currently calculated, it looks to me that Max Pain (as calculated by web sites) is only accurate when sentiment remains constant.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 10:54:32 GMT -8
That's what happens when the share price changes. More contracts get written closer to the share price. Few are going to be looking to write or buy 420 calls for this week. The profit is too small and risk too large for the writer, and the potential for a profit is too small for the buyer.
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 11:08:29 GMT -8
Will we hold 400?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 25, 2013 11:23:51 GMT -8
So now we know: in order for AAPL to be green, the SPY has to be over 1% positive.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 11:30:25 GMT -8
Ya, but bearish for you is probably $600 in 9 months. Actually being bearish would be sub $400 in 9 months. Actually my bearish view is that we will see 525-550 in 12 months. I no longer see 500 this year. So a 30% gain in 12 months is bearish???  |
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 11:42:29 GMT -8
Actually my bearish view is that we will see 525-550 in 12 months. I no longer see 500 this year. So a 30% gain in 12 months is bearish??? For me. Yes since I was expecting 30% increase from 600 in Dec 2013. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 11:52:41 GMT -8
See below for Sponge's brain wave scan  |
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Post by Nevyn on Jun 25, 2013 12:03:59 GMT -8
I bought a little bit today (25 shares). My plan is to build up to 100 shares. Normally, I would have bought Jan 350 C (at $63).
I think we will trend up by the end of this week.
Any thoughts on quarter end effects by funds?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 12:04:30 GMT -8
I feel TC can get the folks at AAPL to deliver what SJ got them to deliver - the big difference is that SJ (assuming you read the Isaacson book) got them to deliver it quicker....... But hold it... remember, SJ was sick as a dog for the last 10 years of so of the company. Tim was the one REALLY runnin' things back then anyway so I think the explaination of this is something completely different and less obvious...... There is an element of truth in all that is purported to be the reason behind AAPL's great fall. But Apple is playing in the same weather that everyone else is. I think Apple is a victim of its own (unsustainable) growth, i.e.,: Fiscal 2010: YoY Revenue growth 52% GM% = 39.38% Fiscal 2011: YoY Revenue growth 66% GM% = 40.48% Fiscal 2012 (through FQ3): YoY Revenue growth 51% GM% = 44.95% However, FQ3 itself returned YoY revenue growth of 22%. Whoops, that's 1/3 the rate turned in by FQ1 and FQ2. GM% dropped 5 points from FQ2. Not to mention that management changed guidance metrics during the April conference call, causing EVERYONE to over estimate Apple's FQ3 performance. The institutions, recognized all this way before the retail market did, and bailed a month before October earnings (which perceptually were horrible because of the change in guidance metrics). So what we end up with is a very bad YoY compare, and a new guidance metric that like a pig passing through a snake, must be absorbed. Only time can fix Apple's 'problem'. That time expires with July's guidance for the September quarter. I have more, but just got a call that a friend is coming over. |
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Post by madmaxroi on Jun 25, 2013 12:04:55 GMT -8
Well Spongie always says he is here to entertain.
The Three Stooges were also there to entertain.
Any connection? I think so. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 12:06:16 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 12:20:12 GMT -8
Another worthless day.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 25, 2013 12:22:44 GMT -8
Beats the other recent days that were less than worthless. |
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 12:25:07 GMT -8
It would have been nice to see 405 as a close but we will take anything above 400.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 12:38:17 GMT -8
Beats the other recent days that were less than worthless. Delaying the inevitable IMO. I'd rather get this over with in one quick swoop than continue to drag it out like we have been for the past five months. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 12:41:21 GMT -8
Where'd that 160.10 SPY print come from? Trying to fool with technical traders or something? LOL.
Maybe a fat finger trade at 3:36PM EST. Doesn't count in my book.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 25, 2013 12:42:18 GMT -8
Beats the other recent days that were less than worthless. Delaying the inevitable IMO. I'd rather get this over with in one quick swoop than continue to drag it out like we have been for the past five months. I was being a little sarcastic. However, one quick swoop is likely just to lead to more. All the way down, lots of us expected dramatic crashes to finally lead to the reversal and it never worked then, so who knows if it would work now. |
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Post by terps530 on Jun 25, 2013 12:55:59 GMT -8
This site , like all others, calculates Max Pain using all contracts written since an Expiry first becomes available. I forget who it was that pointed out that the Max Pain being published ($465), when I bought $450/$455 BCS, had been coming down, albeit slowly. But his observation was correct. The problem with Max Pain calculations (as I see it) is that they don't take into account that current sentiment is getting lost in the tide of all previous contracts (written when sentiment was different). A great example of this can be seen in today's published Max Pain by . On Friday this site showed Max Pain to be at the $425 Strike (July 5 expiry). Today's Max Pain is showing as $420. Factoring out legacy contracts I show 'current sentiment' Max Pain at $405 - $410. I think the integration of current sentiment with legacy sentiment could be the explanation for those occasions when Max Pain calculations breakdown. As it is currently calculated, it looks to me that Max Pain (as calculated by web sites) is only accurate when sentiment remains constant. I'll take credit for the top part. And yes I agree, and with what doc said just after. Pain originally is factored from those legacy sentiment purchases. Watching how it adjusts is factoring the current sentiment into the picture. Last week it really crushed it as the week progressed way more than what the pain was perceived to be. I wanted to figure out a way to track the daily motion of this, strike-to-strike, but it's a lot of data to take in manually. If I was a badass programmer, my vision would be: 1) Do what most pain sites do and poll the OI data daily. Calculate the cash pain at each strike (this is what maximum-pain.com/option-data.aspx does). If it was possible to do this intraday, that would be even better. 2) Plot the rate of change for the cash pain and the OI pain columns. 3) Come up with some relationship to trigger when certain strikes are accelerating. Call this a sentiment indicator. 4) Somehow plot this acceleration with/without 'legacy data'. For example like in fantasy baseball, viewing a players stats for the last 7 days, last 14days, last 30days, instead of the full season. Then we could isolate recent data points, and compare them to the big picture which is what the standard OI pain indicates. I'm going on and on, but I think it would be cool. (I also would bet that something very similar exists as one of million TA studies out there. TD ameritrade ThinkorSwim or bloomberg terminal have soooo many custom ones- I just don't know how to find it specifically. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 13:24:07 GMT -8
Incredibly delayed, and incredibly denied, but nice nonetheless. Amusing how hard it is for a multinational (Samsung Electronics) that's hardly any upstart - in fact always much bigger than Apple - to play by the rules, isn't it.  |
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Post by cbingle on Jun 25, 2013 14:08:34 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere.
1 refi payment down...83 to go.
Plan accordingly....I am. STMF
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 14:20:22 GMT -8
Just had an interesting debate with our IT guy. He thinks Google Chrome and html5 is the future and Apple is just a fad.
IT guys never change.
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Post by sponge on Jun 25, 2013 14:22:51 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere. 1 refi payment down...83 to go. Plan accordingly....I am. STMF Why are you so fixated on what Bud does? It's like lstream and tuffet fixated on all my posts. You folks need to get a life. |
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 25, 2013 14:23:37 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere. 1 refi payment down...83 to go. Plan accordingly....I am. STMF Quite a Crystal Ball (or is it a time machine?) you have! Where can I get one? |
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Post by bud777 on Jun 25, 2013 14:24:19 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere. 1 refi payment down...83 to go. Plan accordingly....I am. STMF My first payment is August 1, so no harm done there yet. Did you follow me off the ledge? If you did, PM me. We can help each other out. The good thing about this position is I really have a 7 year time frame to get back. I do not see the pressure this year or next. The fundamentals are so much in favor of Apple, I believe that they alone would bring it back. My personal belief is that Apple's best years are ahead of it. I have been in software development since computers had tubes...literally. I know this field and I know Apple. If you are in it, just hold on and be patient |
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Post by rickag on Jun 25, 2013 14:54:43 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere. 1 refi payment down...83 to go. Plan accordingly....I am. STMF Toast forever based on just the second half of 2013? I don't know what set you off, but you may want to reconsider that statement. And yes I will argue Apple adding more carriers will positively affect AAPL, they are on only about half the carriers worldwide. China Mobile, NTT Docomo, India and South America come to mind. Selling more than one model of new iPhone whether it be a larger form or a lower cost iPhone will also positively affect AAPL. And that doesn't take into account the 800 lb gorilla in the fact that Apple can leverage 500 million credit cards they have registered in many ways. Are the days of Apple growing by 60 - 80% over, likely, but there is still plenty of growth left. Especially the battle over the living room looms big. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 25, 2013 15:02:50 GMT -8
I bought a little bit today (25 shares). My plan is to build up to 100 shares. Normally, I would have bought Jan 350 C (at $63). I think we will trend up by the end of this week. Any thoughts on quarter end effects by funds? I'm glad you bought shares instead of options -- one less AAPL bull to worry me.  |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 15:11:45 GMT -8
Me, I'm just tearing my hair out with small trades here and there. OMG, this market is one of the toughest to trade for non-intraday types.
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Post by rickag on Jun 25, 2013 15:25:37 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere. 1 refi payment down...83 to go. Plan accordingly....I am. STMF My first payment is August 1, so no harm done there yet. Did you follow me off the ledge? If you did, PM me. We can help each other out. The good thing about this position is I really have a 7 year time frame to get back. I do not see the pressure this year or next. The fundamentals are so much in favor of Apple, I believe that they alone would bring it back. My personal belief is that Apple's best years are ahead of it. I have been in software development since computers had tubes...literally. I know this field and I know Apple. If you are in it, just hold on and be patient As understand it, if AAPL is above 435 in 7 years you made out. Bear in mind that even if Apple doesn't grow much if any in 7 years, inflation alone will elevate AAPL. And with our idiot government spending an extra trillion or 2 PER YEAR inflation is not if but is when and how high. I assume your mortgage payment is locked in and not variable. In the bad old days of that idiot Jimmy Carter, my mortgage didn't go up, food increased somewhat but my pay raises ballooned and the interest in my profit sharing skyrocketed. Let alone the value of my house. What you did has risk, but maybe not as much as some think. |
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 15:45:41 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere. 1 refi payment down...83 to go. Plan accordingly....I am. STMF Man this is bold. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 15:49:22 GMT -8
Agree, appledoc?
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