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Post by nagrani on Jul 21, 2013 9:40:06 GMT -8
I think we are dancing on the head of a pin with all of these discussions. Here is the deal fellas - if apple is going to come out with a newer lower cost phone this quarter (sales begin sometime in sept) - its game on for aapl.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 10:04:46 GMT -8
You made me go back and reread this thread and PED's request. We are talking about iTunes, Software, Services, and I mistakenly gave him my combined number for iTunes, Software, Services and Accessories. My iTunes, Software, Services number is 3.886 Billion. Doubt I'll do well in that category. : ) Just email PED to correct it. He's already made one and may make another (Misek). Done
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 10:10:45 GMT -8
I find this article to be very prescient, although I think Apple Maps may surpass Google Maps at some point in the future. tinyurl.com/Apple-Maps-Strategy“But an acceptable outcome is one in which Apple never catches Google in maps quality, but simply never allows Google to gain a large enough lead for it to become complacent about the quality of Google Maps for iOS.”
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 11:49:38 GMT -8
DevPortalGate?
Weird. Well, Apple pretty much has to get things back online by Monday or speak up on what the problem is by then.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 13:46:09 GMT -8
Depends on how you have your data organized I suppose, but looking at things sequentially, it's easier to miss the growth patterns. For example, the growth from Q2 to Q3 in 2012 was only 1% (and a sequential decline of 2% in 2011). The growth from Q3 to Q4 in 2012 was 9% (7% in 2011). Yet YOY, they increased 37% in Q3 between 2012 and 2011 and 40% in Q4 between 2012 and 2011. Q4 2012 was the high water mark for YOY increase in the same quarter. I think the point is for a revenue segment that is entirely dependant on regular spending by Apples installed userbase, then sequential comparisons make much more sense. The trend is revenue for this segment does not decrease significantly at all, so a iTunes revenue figure below $4 billion this quarter is highly unlikely I think. Horace just posted a chart on twitter, with a comment about how iTunes looks on trend to surpass Mac revenue soon (and if it included gross revenues instead of just apples cut of some media, then it has already surpassed Mac) Horace has done significant work on the iTunes segment over the last 6 months, and he estimates it has a 15% gross margin. Everyone cites the ipad mini as the man reason for apples declining gross margin, but I think the growing percentage of iTunes as of apples total revenue is also playing a small part on margin compression.
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Post by rickag on Jul 21, 2013 14:03:02 GMT -8
I find this article to be very prescient, although I think Apple Maps may surpass Google Maps at some point in the future. tinyurl.com/Apple-Maps-Strategy“But an acceptable outcome is one in which Apple never catches Google in maps quality, but simply never allows Google to gain a large enough lead for it to become complacent about the quality of Google Maps for iOS.” I also believe Apple's maps will surpass Google maps in areas that the consumer cares most about. I don't fully accept the reasoning that Apple's main thrust is to prod Google into maintaining parity between Google maps on both Android and IOS. Apple maps will enhance Apple's strategy with iWallet, it's an ecosystem strategy. I could be wrong, time will tell.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 14:06:05 GMT -8
I think the point is for a revenue segment that is entirely dependant on regular spending by Apples installed userbase, then sequential comparisons make much more sense. The trend is revenue for this segment does not decrease significantly at all, so a iTunes revenue figure below $4 billion this quarter is highly unlikely I think. Horace just posted a chart on twitter, with a comment about how iTunes looks on trend to surpass Mac revenue soon (and if it included gross revenues instead of just apples cut of some media, then it has already surpassed Mac) Horace has done significant work on the iTunes segment over the last 6 months, and he estimates it has a 15% gross margin. Everyone cites the ipad mini as the man reason for apples declining gross margin, but I think the growing percentage of iTunes as of apples total revenue is also playing a small part on margin compression. Agree to disagree. Inferences from sequential growth is riskier than YOY going back to FQ1 2011. And I think Horace is low on his iTunes category. Consider that iTunes alone, before Apple regrouped this category was probably at 10-15%. Software had a very high margin and going back to Q3 2012 represented 45% of the now combined group. There's no way the overall margin would be unchanged from the addition of software. Even if iTunes was at 10% before, it's going to get bumped well above 15%.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2013 14:53:09 GMT -8
The Apple developer site got hacked. Apple took it down for security.
An email from Apple is circulating.....
"Last Thursday, an intruder attempted to secure personal information of our registered developers from our developer website. Sensitive personal information was encrypted and cannot be accessed, however, we have not been able to rule out the possibility that some developers’ names, mailing addresses, and/or email addresses may have been accessed. In the spirit of transparency, we want to inform you of the issue. We took the site down immediately on Thursday and have been working around the clock since then.
In order to prevent a security threat like this from happening again, we’re completely overhauling our developer systems, updating our server software, and rebuilding our entire database. We apologize for the significant inconvenience that our downtime has caused you and we expect to have the developer website up again soon."
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 15:23:42 GMT -8
I was betting this was a security issue. Could it be Samsung dirty-tricks? I wouldn't put ANYTHING past this corrupt organization.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 15:45:25 GMT -8
Kinda wish Apple had just said there were security problems sooner. Oh well, teachable moment for Apple I guess.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2013 15:45:44 GMT -8
I was betting this was a security issue. Could it be Samsung dirty-tricks? I wouldn't put ANYTHING past this corrupt organization. Even if the data accessed Is encrypted, it could delay the 4the beta of IOS 7. Apple is throwing a lot of resource at this. It's disturbing.....maybe the NSA can help.. Unrelated: I note Gregg's number on PED's iTunes/software/ services chart is corrected. Man, some of those estimates are really low.....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2013 15:46:44 GMT -8
Kinda wish Apple had just said there were security problems sooner. Oh well, teachable moment for Apple I guess. Also, this happened over the weekend. So that's a factor too. The took the site down Thursday so they knew it then......
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 16:25:54 GMT -8
Yup Red, edited that.
Along with my estimates (I'd been working from incorrect iTunes/software and accesories year-ago rev totals).
Revenues: $36.2B EPS: $7.67 GM – 36.5% OpEx – $3.85B
Tax rate – 26% (same as Apple guidance)
Outstanding shares – 936M (assuming a net share reduction of about 11M)
iPhone – 29.5M sold @ $585 “ASP” (about 13% YOY unit growth) iPad – 17.25M sold @ $430 ASP (about 1% YOY unit growth) Mac – 4.1M sold @ $1310 ASP (2% YOY growth) iPod – 5.25M sold @ $160 ASP (-22% YOY growth)
iTunes/software – $3.84B (assumes ~ 20% YOY growth rate) Accessories – about $1.47B (assumes ~ 20% YOY growth rate)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 16:50:41 GMT -8
I was betting this was a security issue. Could it be Samsung dirty-tricks? I wouldn't put ANYTHING past this corrupt organization. Even if the data accessed Is encrypted, it could delay the 4the beta of IOS 7. Apple is throwing a lot of resource at this. It's disturbing.....maybe the NSA can help.. Unrelated: I note Gregg's number on PED's iTunes/software/ services chart is corrected. Man, some of those estimates are really low..... Five guys from Braeburn occupy the bottom five slots. It does not reflect well on Braeburn IMO (and I've told Robert that). These guys are just pulling #s out of their arse.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 16:53:18 GMT -8
Yup Red, edited that. Along with my estimates (I'd been working from incorrect iTunes/software and accesories year-ago rev totals). Revenues: $36.2B EPS: $7.67 GM – 36.5% OpEx – $3.85B Tax rate – 26% (same as Apple guidance) Outstanding shares – 936M (assuming a net share reduction of about 11M) iPhone – 29.5M sold @ $585 “ASP” (about 13% YOY unit growth) iPad – 17.25M sold @ $430 ASP (about 1% YOY unit growth) Mac – 4.1M sold @ $1310 ASP (2% YOY growth) iPod – 5.25M sold @ $160 ASP (-22% YOY growth) iTunes/software – $3.84B (assumes ~ 20% YOY growth rate) Accessories – about $1.47B (assumes ~ 20% YOY growth rate) Looking good, but 3.84B in iTunes? Mav, that would be the lowest YOY increase since Q1 2011 (date where Apple stopped reformatting iTunes category). What are your reasons for this, as I'm sure you have some.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 17:17:21 GMT -8
Y'know, I really don't. But hey, I'm a home gamer.
It could well be that iTunes/software is up 35% or something YOY given the trend data that we have to work with, despite the quick deceleration in iPad/iPhone growth. That'd add what, somewhere around another $500M in revs? I can't see iPhone and iPad much lower than I've estimated, though. And until Oppenheimer shows that his change in guidance methodology really wasn't, I'm very hesitant to estimate significantly higher than guidance.
I may have to lower my YOY growth estimates for Accessories next quarter. Just look at the Q4 compares between 2011 and 2012.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 17:25:23 GMT -8
Y'know, I really don't. But hey, I'm a home gamer. It could well be that iTunes/software is up 35% or something YOY given the trend data that we have to work with, despite the quick deceleration in iPad/iPhone growth. That'd add what, somewhere around another $500M in revs? I can't see iPhone and iPad much lower than I've estimated, though. And until Oppenheimer shows that his change in guidance methodology really wasn't, I'm very hesitant to estimate significantly higher than guidance. I may have to lower my YOY growth estimates for Accessories next quarter. Just look at the Q4 compares between 2011 and 2012. Just to be clear, Apple did not guide the iTunes category, but I agree we're going to learn a fair amount about Peter's "new and improved" guidance model. Robert posted sequential increases on PED's site, which saved me the work in response to a poster who can't get below $5b (who knows how he arrived at that one).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 17:45:31 GMT -8
Apple doesn't guide anything but the basics, of course.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2013 18:06:59 GMT -8
Yup Red, edited that. Along with my estimates (I'd been working from incorrect iTunes/software and accesories year-ago rev totals). Revenues: $36.2B EPS: $7.67 GM – 36.5% OpEx – $3.85B Tax rate – 26% (same as Apple guidance) Outstanding shares – 936M (assuming a net share reduction of about 11M) iPhone – 29.5M sold @ $585 “ASP” (about 13% YOY unit growth) iPad – 17.25M sold @ $430 ASP (about 1% YOY unit growth) Mac – 4.1M sold @ $1310 ASP (2% YOY growth) iPod – 5.25M sold @ $160 ASP (-22% YOY growth) iTunes/software – $3.84B (assumes ~ 20% YOY growth rate) Accessories – about $1.47B (assumes ~ 20% YOY growth rate) Looking good, but 3.84B in iTunes? Mav, that would be the lowest YOY increase since Q1 2011 (date where Apple stopped reformatting iTunes category). What are your reasons for this, as I'm sure you have some. The correct number is $4.22B. I bought a lot of movies and music last quarter.....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2013 18:10:22 GMT -8
Quote of the night from the big guy......
@jdalrymple: Tomorrow Samsung will announce that its developer site was also hacked, only worse.
Apple comments on developer site hack Posted on Sunday, July 21st, 2013 at 4:19 pm. PT Written by Jim Dalrymple I spoke with Apple tonight about news that its developer portal was hacked last Thursday by someone attempting to gain access to personal information about the company’s developers. While the company admitted already that the site was breached, there are some important details that you should know.
First of all, this does not affect iTunes customer accounts—this is a different system and all iTunes customer information is completely safe, Apple told me.
It’s also important to note that the hacker did not get access to any app code or even the servers where the app information was stored. The hacker also did not get access to any credit card information.
The only thing that the hacker could have gotten access to was the names, email addresses and mailing addresses of the developers. At this point, Apple doesn’t know if the hacker even managed to see that information. Worst case, that is all the information they would have seen, according to Apple.
Apple has taken the developer site offline and is working to get the site secured before re-launching it. The company had no timetable for when that might happen.
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Post by mark on Jul 21, 2013 20:25:34 GMT -8
The 18.75 or so million IPAD number hast squirming. I've missed iPad numbers badly three of the past four quarters running ( but close lady quarter) , the mini is such a hit.. But cannibalization of the bigger model may not yet be fully cooked in. Then we have the explosion in the education space. And the competition from the Surface , ( cough) I wonder if the firesales on the Surface might reduce iPad volume somewhat this quarter? Haha ha haha!!!
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Post by mark on Jul 21, 2013 20:38:05 GMT -8
I was betting this was a security issue. Could it be Samsung dirty-tricks? I wouldn't put ANYTHING past this corrupt organization. Even if the data accessed Is encrypted, it could delay the 4the beta of IOS 7. Apple is throwing a lot of resource at this. It's disturbing.....maybe the NSA can help.. I doubt any disruption of the iOS 7 team is occurring. Different skill set for the most part - IT Security is mostly different than embedded device security.
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Post by joel90069 on Jul 21, 2013 21:10:47 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 22:10:01 GMT -8
Good one, 9to5Mac.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 22:10:47 GMT -8
I think the growing percentage of iTunes as of apples total revenue is also playing a small part on margin compression. Good observation.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 22:12:58 GMT -8
Apple hasn't said so yet, but it seems like they'll have to say so soon.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 22:17:19 GMT -8
A 13" iPad is news to me, at least as a report from a mainstream media source.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 22:24:18 GMT -8
Y'know, I really don't. But hey, I'm a home gamer. It could well be that iTunes/software is up 35% or something YOY given the trend data that we have to work with, despite the quick deceleration in iPad/iPhone growth. That'd add what, somewhere around another $500M in revs? I can't see iPhone and iPad much lower than I've estimated, though. And until Oppenheimer shows that his change in guidance methodology really wasn't, I'm very hesitant to estimate significantly higher than guidance. I may have to lower my YOY growth estimates for Accessories next quarter. Just look at the Q4 compares between 2011 and 2012. Another couple of hours and it will be Monday Intraday blogging. Mav, I'm with you, 20%, 30%, 40% YoY growth (while significant) is a Billion $$s max. I'm not at all excited by missing this category, even by a significant percentage. Further, like you, I am not prepared to accept forecasts that are substantially above PO's guidance range. Again, if Apple reports at the upper end of its guidance range, then guides above last years results WS is going to respond positively.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2013 22:24:31 GMT -8
Depends on if Apple thinks there's a need for that kind of product, burgess. Apple could probably pull off a larger (and I presume higher-res) iPad quite well. But is it more mainstream, business, a PC replacement?
Since it seems a bigger iPhone is more a matter of when than if I can see Apple experimenting with iPad. Probably not much more than that just yet, since iPad is still kicking so much #$$.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 23:20:14 GMT -8
Depends on if Apple thinks there's a need for that kind of product, burgess. Apple could probably pull off a larger (and I presume higher-res) iPad quite well. But is it more mainstream, business, a PC replacement? Since it seems a bigger iPhone is more a matter of when than if I can see Apple experimenting with iPad. Probably not much more than that just yet, since iPad is still kicking so much #$$. A 13" iPad based on the iPad 3/4 form factor would be a bit heavy and unwieldy in my mind, but if its a more lightweight/slimmer bezel form factor like the iPad mini (& rumored iPad 5) it might be quite interesting.
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