JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,255 
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jul 22, 2013 23:47:19 GMT -8
Good luck to all the longs...  |
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 23, 2013 0:38:55 GMT -8
Something is wrong with this picture:  Wow, profit looks pretty pitiful, particularly since there's two arbitrary scales at work here, one of which looks to have $4B in profit somewhere in an esoteric "negative zone". (In case you needed any more reason to avoid the Goldman article on Fortune. I spent about 10 seconds looking at it by accident, and it is indeed not worth anyone's time.) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 0:46:00 GMT -8
Good luck to all the longs... +1 Anyone taking insurance on their positions? |
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jul 23, 2013 2:15:20 GMT -8
I am long and surprisingly calm today - maybe I've been battered so brutally along the way that I'm numb...or maybe it's because I am in it for the long term and am not trading it right now given the lack of direction. Good luck to all ~ especially the longs.
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 2:20:25 GMT -8
His reasoning is insane. He leads off saying 390 is going to hold or it isn't, but then recommends buying any dips? How does that make sense? There's a reason why triple bottoms don't ever hold, but we don't have to talk about that.
My WAG is if 410 breaks, then we'll see new lows.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 4:12:57 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by Nevyn on Jul 23, 2013 4:22:21 GMT -8
I have no position. I sold my small position before going on vacation last week.
My gut feeling is that I should be long, but I am reluctant to take a position into earnings. I think many retail investors are like me. Once earnings are out of the way, I see a steady increase as new products are rolled out. But it all depends on guidance.
I still think it is crazy for Apple to release all it's products just before its busiest quarter. I could foresee Apple guiding poorly, compared to expectations, based on new product transition.
|
|
|
|
Post by lance on Jul 23, 2013 5:26:32 GMT -8
What can happen in this call to result in a pop. I can't pinpoint any major positives that will come from this call. Earnings will be weak the question is just how weak. Guidance assuming it neglects new products will be worse than this quarter. The only hope is discussion of products which wont happen or positive news about buyback purchases. I will be out rowing during the call tonight, but I don't think I will miss anything significant. I do still believe that Late July and August will be the best time to buy this stock all year because of the depressed outlook coming to an end and new products on the horizon and most likely Apple easily beating its guidance due to product releases.
|
|
|
|
Post by po1nt on Jul 23, 2013 5:30:50 GMT -8
Something is wrong with this picture: Wow, profit looks pretty pitiful, particularly since there's two arbitrary scales at work here, one of which looks to have $4B in profit somewhere in an esoteric "negative zone". (In case you needed any more reason to avoid the Goldman article on Fortune. I spent about 10 seconds looking at it by accident, and it is indeed not worth anyone's time.) This really puts it perspective. I really hope we don't see yoy revenue decline. Earnings are a different story, but with all growing number of itunes accounts, Apps sold, new Apple stores, new carriers... that would really suck. |
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Jul 23, 2013 5:37:20 GMT -8
What are the chances during the conference call that Gene Munster obliquely enquires about an Apple TV...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 5:39:54 GMT -8
Something is wrong with this picture: Wow, profit looks pretty pitiful, particularly since there's two arbitrary scales at work here, one of which looks to have $4B in profit somewhere in an esoteric "negative zone". (In case you needed any more reason to avoid the Goldman article on Fortune. I spent about 10 seconds looking at it by accident, and it is indeed not worth anyone's time.) This chart is either done by an amateur or someone has an agenda. Probably both. The data needs a chart with two vertical axis. Did CNBC quietly buy Forbes? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 5:41:11 GMT -8
What are the chances during the conference call that Gene Munster obliquely enquires about an Apple TV... He'll embarrass himself if he does, not that he has a problem with that... |
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jul 23, 2013 5:45:14 GMT -8
Am I the only one planning on a 7+% pop after hours based on Viagra guidance??!?
|
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 5:56:11 GMT -8
Am I the only one planning on a 7+% pop after hours based on Viagra guidance??!? The Viagra guidance? well, If the pop lasts more than four hours, call Mercel  |
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jul 23, 2013 5:57:15 GMT -8
LOL.
|
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 23, 2013 5:58:37 GMT -8
A little further and another gap, July 10th/11th, closed. If my memory is correct.  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 6:11:31 GMT -8
Am I the only one planning on a 7+% pop after hours based on Viagra guidance??!? The Viagra guidance? well, If the pop lasts more than four hours, call Mercel I'm not taking any new patients until September. The media has done major damage on this stock, and I don't expect a catalyst from Apple today. I will accept any and all catalysts, however. |
|
|
|
Post by podboy on Jul 23, 2013 6:11:32 GMT -8
I always get a sick feeling around 4:00 on ER days. I HATE them! PLEASE don't let me down yet again with shitty guidance.
#ishouldhaveneverinvestedinaapl
|
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Jul 23, 2013 6:18:00 GMT -8
Sentiment meter seems so low. Stock prolly sells off but doesn't move much. Killing all premiums.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 6:47:33 GMT -8
Sentiment meter seems so low. Stock prolly sells off but doesn't move much. Killing all premiums. Think of it as an Expectations meter. With expectations so low, the amount Apple has to report/guide, in order to surprise to the upside, is low as well. |
|
icam
Member
Posts: 447
|
Post by icam on Jul 23, 2013 6:52:06 GMT -8
I don't expect Apple to include any unannounced, and yet unreleased, products in their guidance for the next Q. Those products will require adjustments to EPS estimates after they are released. Just my opinion.
|
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jul 23, 2013 6:55:02 GMT -8
Disagree but we will see. Apple is trying to set and manage expectations within a tight range.
|
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 23, 2013 7:16:48 GMT -8
Disagree but we will see. Apple is trying to set and manage expectations within a tight range. I agree Apple is trying to guide more closely, we'll see by the end of FQ4 13. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 7:19:21 GMT -8
We're going to learn more about Apple's "new and improved" guidance today. If they stay reasonably in range for the June quarter, there's a better chance they guide strong in the Sept. quarter and let the pundits speculate.
If Apple beats big (or God-No-Not-Me-I'm-Dying misses) outside the implied EPS ranges, then Apple is probably signaling that the guidance range is really about setting a floor for earnings.
|
|
mark
fire starter 
Posts: 1,649
|
Post by mark on Jul 23, 2013 7:21:36 GMT -8
If I recall correctly, last quarter there was mention of "new product categories". At least I think I heard the word "categories". I wonder if there will be any questions about that ... and more importantly, if there will be any answers  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 7:27:15 GMT -8
If I recall correctly, last quarter there was mention of "new product categories". At least I think I heard the word "categories". I wonder if there will be any questions about that ... and more importantly, if there will be any answers Questions? Almost certainly. Answers? No |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 7:36:32 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jul 23, 2013 7:45:24 GMT -8
I expect guidance to be relatively poor, especially if there is any truth to the rumours of iPhone 5S delays. We may not get a single day of sales in this quarter - keep that in mind.
|
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Jul 23, 2013 8:46:08 GMT -8
via Twitter:
Monthly visitors to Zaky's Bullish Cross website:
October 2012: 350,352
July 2013: 17,024
Is that a contrarian indicator?
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,255
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jul 23, 2013 9:06:40 GMT -8
Sentiment meter seems so low. Stock prolly sells off but doesn't move much. Killing all premiums. Are you referring to calls? The drop in volatility will kill those, unless you are talking way out. Weeklies IV is in the low 60's right now.  Tempting, but who knows what Apple will report?  |
|
