Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 23, 2015 4:00:26 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Well AAPL is swinging back and forth this morning. Currently (6:48) slightly GREEN, trading at 112.41 +0.01 (0.01%). Major indices are all GREEN as well. Interesting morning. We have the markets applying upward pressure due to the death of King Abdullah on the expectations of oil price rises. On AAPL specifically there is some downward pressure due to OE, but in the shadow of the market and imminent earnings, who knows? Expectations on Apple's earnings are big. The question is how big? The news is helping this morning. Last night Apple released Tim Cook's compensation which 'maxed out' because his 'performance exceeded the goals set by the board.' Bodes well. Stories at AppleInsider, Time, AP and others. “Mickey” Drexler retires from the Apple Board in March. Stories at the WSJ [$] and AppleInsider. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2015 4:47:44 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 23, 2015 5:23:20 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jan 23, 2015 5:41:21 GMT -8
"Apple Rides iPhone 6 and 6 Plus To Strong Quarter Samsung Loses Some Share To LG"
CHICAGO, IL – Friday, January 23, 2015 - Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, LLC (CIRP) today released analysis of the results of its research on mobile phone manufacturers for the calendar quarter that ended December 31, 2014. This analysis features findings about consumer trends in mobile phones in the US from October- December 2014. CIRP finds that among the major phone brands, Apple had the largest share of the US market, with half of all phone sales.
“The strength of the September 2014 launch of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus fueled Apple’s dominance in US mobile phone sales this quarter,” said Josh Lowitz, Partner and Co- Founder of CIRP. “Apple had virtually double the sales of Samsung, and five times that of LG. No other brand accounted for as much as 5% of US sales. The Amazon Fire and Blackberry smartphones registered slight share, which we attribute to random sample fluctuation as much as actual sales.” “Because of the iPhone launch, Apple increased its share considerably over the 28% in the July-September quarter,” said Mike Levin, Partner and Co-Founder of CIRP. “For most of the earlier quarter, buyers held off buying Apple phones in anticipation of the launch. Apple also increased its share slightly from the October-December 2013 quarter, when it had 48% of sales. More telling, Samsung saw its share fall from 31% in the October-December 2013 quarter, evidently giving up sales to LG, whose share increased from 8% in the October-December 2013 quarter.” “By every measure, Apple’s 2014 phone launch was a success,” continued Lowitz. “iPhones drew from loyal Apple customers, with 86% of buyers upgrading from an older iPhone. Samsung and LG saw far lower loyalty rates, with 25% of Samsung owners and 18% of LG owners who activated a phone in the quarter switching to an iPhone.”
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2015 5:43:56 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 23, 2015 6:21:52 GMT -8
iPhone 6 and 6+ demand/interest stay strong, via PED fortune.com/2015/01/23/chart-demand-for-apples-iphone-66-stays-strong/Better that one in two (56%) of the respondents in a December survey of early adopter types who plan to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days say they’ll get an iPhone. “This is the highest level of Apple demand ever recorded in our smart phone survey three months after a major new release,” said Andy Golub of 451 Research. Samsung is beginning to bounce back, he adds, “after a big decline last quarter due to the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus launches.”
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 23, 2015 6:24:10 GMT -8
Let's start a game of predict the pin. I'm going with $115. Perhaps optimistic, but looking at the expiring options and the market conditions seems reasonable.
What say you?
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Post by chasmac on Jan 23, 2015 6:34:21 GMT -8
Seriously? They must be planning on selling the news! Raise expectations to ridiculous levels but not your price targets.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jan 23, 2015 7:39:57 GMT -8
The Amazon Fire and Blackberry smartphones registered slight share, which we attribute to random sample fluctuation as much as actual sales.” Ouch!! Looks like the F1Q FUDsters have moved on. Suddenly stories deriding the battery life of the WATCH are everywhere, for an unreleased product.
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Post by dmiller on Jan 23, 2015 7:47:18 GMT -8
The Amazon Fire and Blackberry smartphones registered slight share, which we attribute to random sample fluctuation as much as actual sales.” Ouch!! Looks like the F1Q FUDsters have moved on. Suddenly stories deriding the battery life of the WATCH are everywhere, for an unreleased product. This business about "not lasting a day" is, to put it bluntly, just stupid. Think about it. Does your iPhone last a day, -in continuous use-? Well? Does it? :-) (no). Do you take your iPhone out repeatedly, use it in short spurts, then put it to sleep, so that it's on standby? (yes) How much continuous use do you actually get out of your iPhone based on well-known reporting stats? 8 hours, 10 hours at most? So there's the real point of comparison. Let's say Apple Watch gets about half of that effective continuous usage, or maybe a little better. For a product which you'll actually use for LESS extended periods than an iPhone, this is fine. You're not going to be using it to read websites with mobile Safari, browsing, reading/writing emails, and the interactions will be differently shorter. When you think about it, this battery life derision isn't just stupid, it's deliberately, obtusely, FUD-ishly stupid beyond belief. Of course, we always want the battery life to be better, but this should be acceptable as the starting point for the first generation device.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 23, 2015 8:50:07 GMT -8
Let's start a game of predict the pin. I'm going with $115. Perhaps optimistic, but looking at the expiring options and the market conditions seems reasonable. What say you? Well, we have cleaned out some of the Friday inventory, obviously, and begun to move up nicely. 115 is too rich...I'm going to play the Price is Right and say.....$114.99 (does that count as a pin?)
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 23, 2015 9:05:55 GMT -8
It does in my book.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 23, 2015 9:16:18 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 23, 2015 9:30:10 GMT -8
I have expressed my disdain for and disgust with John Sculley previously in this forum, but this deceptively-titled article takes the cake. After acknowledging the potential of Pay, he goes on to make a Coke-Pepsi (where he was CEO) comparison, claiming that Samsung already has the technology in its phones to strike back, something called Mobeam. Guess who is an investor in Mobeam? Scum is too polite a word to describe him. Attachments:Apple WATCH.rtf (437 B)
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2015 9:33:26 GMT -8
Analysts are just analysts.
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Post by macwire on Jan 23, 2015 10:23:10 GMT -8
Approaching the .618 fib of our high 119.60 to 104.50 decline. That would be 113.86
Break and hold above implies a move back to the highs.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2015 10:37:39 GMT -8
I am so confused on the technicals at this point. You are saying 113.86. Over on Avi's site they are suggesting 113.25 (decisively). All that being said they still (most of them) agree that this will go back down to $102 (in a "c" wave) as it stands right now .... and they are all hoping that it happens BEFORE 1/27 so they can load up. If it does not happen before ER it makes it all very, very murky. One can make an argument that it sells off after earnings down to 102 or whatever. Point is - I'm cheering for it to go higher.
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Post by mace on Jan 23, 2015 10:49:23 GMT -8
I am so confused on the technicals at this point. You are saying 113.86. Over on Avi's site they are suggesting 113.25 (decisively). All that being said they still (most of them) agree that this will go back down to $102 (in a "c" wave) as it stands right now .... and they are all hoping that it happens BEFORE 1/27 so they can load up. If it does not happen before ER it makes it all very, very murky. One can make an argument that it sells off after earnings down to 102 or whatever. Point is - I'm cheering for it to go higher. That's my plan makes public, guess it won't work now. How to drop more than $10 by Tuesday? Luckily I'm hedged via common shares
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Post by mace on Jan 23, 2015 10:54:31 GMT -8
phoebear611,
PWAG:
Between $113.25-$114.77 means more than 50% probability that uptrend resume. Above $114.77, more than 90% probability.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 23, 2015 11:02:43 GMT -8
I am so confused on the technicals at this point. You are saying 113.86. Over on Avi's site they are suggesting 113.25 (decisively). All that being said they still (most of them) agree that this will go back down to $102 (in a "c" wave) as it stands right now .... and they are all hoping that it happens BEFORE 1/27 so they can load up. If it does not happen before ER it makes it all very, very murky. One can make an argument that it sells off after earnings down to 102 or whatever. Point is - I'm cheering for it to go higher. That's my plan makes public, guess it won't work now. How to drop more than $10 by Tuesday? Luckily I'm hedged via common shares I don't really believe you depend on luck, mace. So luck has very little to do with it!
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2015 11:13:29 GMT -8
I am so confused on the technicals at this point. You are saying 113.86. Over on Avi's site they are suggesting 113.25 (decisively). All that being said they still (most of them) agree that this will go back down to $102 (in a "c" wave) as it stands right now .... and they are all hoping that it happens BEFORE 1/27 so they can load up. If it does not happen before ER it makes it all very, very murky. One can make an argument that it sells off after earnings down to 102 or whatever. Point is - I'm cheering for it to go higher. Waves, technicals... What do I know, but there should be at least one daily chart interpretation of descending channel breakout for AAPL. This is no ordinary *4*-day move, and whether it's from a double, triple bottom formation, it's strongly bullish. There's also the MACD-h crossover, which has "some authority" this time. Now, do greedy clever traders want four straight up days? I bet not. Short-term overbought? On the "right timeframe" it is I guess. In "need of rest"? It's been between 105-ish and low/mid 110s for about 6 weeks. Pick your side. Weekly chart elicits a nice little yawn. What, AAPL worry? We have less EW people on the board than ever but I'm betting that 102 deal has something to do with wanting to address that price gap/hoping for a buying opportunity in the 99-102 or whatever range. Well it was already covered territory in September and there's no law that all gaps must be filled. Personally, I don't think we get there absent an earnings disappointment, whatever that means. Which brings us to fundamentals. Again, WAG, but they look pretty solid to me. Which brings us to earnings. No one has any clue what's in store for Tuesday, so plan accordingly.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2015 11:40:59 GMT -8
fyi: 102 is the 1.00 extension (a common target for C-waves) If it clears 113.25 it invalidates triangle it is currently in .... according to EWT ... but the debates rage on over there on this.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Jan 23, 2015 12:42:41 GMT -8
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