Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 28, 2015 8:15:20 GMT -8
I have nothing against the home gamer since modelling the company leads to better understanding. But this public smack down stuff is a sham. The bears I'd enjoy seeing smacked down a bit more are those attempting to manipulate, like those at BI. If Blodget, a convicted manipulator, is going to be out there making pronouncements, I'm all for letting the wolves loose. That said, I agree that anointing someone the 'winner' is misleading. I would much rather see analysts ranked over time, segregated between good markets and bad. Hint, hint... PED.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 28, 2015 8:15:59 GMT -8
Agree. I actually placed 3rd and first in the smack down several years ago. Don't get me wrong - I'm smart but it was a silly thing to participate in that
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 28, 2015 8:36:49 GMT -8
EPS beat consensus expectations by about 15%. You'd think that the stock would appreciate by that amount in short order based purely on the EPS not being priced in - the "we didn't see that coming" impact. (not counting the kind of PE appreciation such a beat deserves).
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2015 8:47:33 GMT -8
I don't think I have ever read that anyone feels that there is a company out there that AAPL should be compelled to buy. We often throw spaghetti against the wall but nothing to clamor about. In the past I felt strongly about Waze and Nest...particularly Nest. Don't truly understand why they didn't buy it - seems like it would have dovetailed nicely...meanwhile it's sold at Apple retail stores. Wonder what TC will do besides the watch this year? Does anyone think there is anything else out there he may introduce in some way? --- by the way, I couldn't help but chuckle when Gene Munster asked TC about the tv last night - it's Gene's yearly prediction. This is a crazy one - what about IBM? Trading in single digit P/E range so would be good value. There are issues with the company but it looks like they're taking the right steps to make it leaner and more profitable in areas with forward potential. This would lock up the enterprise and give Apple greater cloud strength, not to mention better earnings. A partnership with Apple would make IBM even leaner and more profitable. Probably too big and too distracting for Apple to consider it. Like I said, just a crazy thought.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 28, 2015 8:48:37 GMT -8
EPS beat consensus expectations by about 15%. You'd think that the stock would appreciate by that amount in short order based purely on the EPS not being priced in - the "we didn't see that coming" impact. (not counting the kind of PE appreciation such a beat deserves). it will, just not in 1 day. Too much trading is done by computers :/
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 28, 2015 9:07:19 GMT -8
First smart thing out of his mouth, I've heard:
"Apple is building and creating an annuity (90% plus iPhone re-buy rates) with customers that upgrade multiple devices over many years," Munster said.
And he didn't even say TV.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 28, 2015 9:10:33 GMT -8
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Post by valere on Jan 28, 2015 9:11:52 GMT -8
uncle carl was also beating the annuity drum... we should be good for the next few months , monster quarter , watch , capital returning to shareholders, great q2 forecast... maybe they should split again , it worked great last april ... 3 for 1
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Post by Lstream on Jan 28, 2015 9:25:21 GMT -8
I have nothing against the home gamer since modelling the company leads to better understanding. But this public smack down stuff is a sham. The bears I'd enjoy seeing smacked down a bit more are those attempting to manipulate, like those at BI. If Blodget, a convicted manipulator, is going to be out there making pronouncements, I'm all for letting the wolves loose. That said, I agree that anointing someone the 'winner' is misleading. I would much rather see analysts ranked over time, segregated between good markets and bad. Hint, hint... PED. Drawing ANY form of attention to the likes of Blodgett is exactly what he wants. Even if he is getting slammed. Makes him better known and it drives more page hits. The only way to win against pond scum like him is to totally ignore him, and NEVER link to anything he writes. No matter how insane or objectionable the content is.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 28, 2015 9:33:25 GMT -8
Lstream you are right, Blodgett thrives on any attention.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 9:35:38 GMT -8
I spent the better part of two years at Braeburn. Any "analyst" that gets close is getting there purely by fluke. It is all guesswork, because there is so much that is entirely unknowable about Apple. PED gets page hits from this silliness, but it should be regarded as purely for entertainment only. I have nothing against the home gamer since modelling the company leads to better understanding. But this public smack down stuff is a sham. Mav likes this.
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Post by carbonate24 on Jan 28, 2015 9:52:04 GMT -8
Crossed the 100 million mark in volume! It'll be interesting to see where we end up at 4:00pm
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 10:07:33 GMT -8
Looking good, AAPL longs!
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 28, 2015 10:07:41 GMT -8
Apple Pay Available in an Estimated 652,000 Locations JANUARY 28, 2015 BY JJ HORNBLASS Apple Pay was launched last October and is now available in — brace yourself — approximately 652,000 North American locations, according to an estimate made public yesterday. Brian Roemmele, arguably one of the more well-versed payments experts in the nation, indicated that he made the estimate based on some difficult legwork, which he declined to make public. He did emphasize, though, that a jumping-off point was the fact that more than 200,000 Apple Pay locations are currently known to be activated. He got to the 652,000 number, because “we found many uncounted” North American locations, he told Bank Innovation. The number is nothing short of astounding, especially when you couple it with the disclosures Apple made yesterday about its new payments initiative. Today about 750 banks and credit unions have signed on to bring Apple Pay to their customers, and in just three months after launch, Apple Pay makes up more than $2 out of $3 spent on purchases using contactless payment across the three major U.S. card networks. This is remarkable progress for Apple in just three short months. And the USA Technologies adoption of Apple Pay yesterday is just the latest “wow” news. That deal alone adds 200,000 Apple Pay acceptance points nationwide, including a wide range of vending machines and parking lot payment kiosks. About the only thing Apple has not disclosed is the current transaction volume through Apple Pay. No doubt that will come soon, and if the Apple Pay statistics in hand are any indication, it will “wow,” too. bankinnovation.net/2015/01/apple-pay-available-in-an-estimated-652000-locations/
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Post by rickag on Jan 28, 2015 10:07:45 GMT -8
I want AAPL to go up which goes without saying. With the volume today I just would like to know WHO THE HELL IS SELLING AT THESE PRICES?
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jan 28, 2015 10:45:51 GMT -8
Does anybody know how much Buyback they did this past Qtr?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 10:49:20 GMT -8
Only $5B apparently on open mkt. I found that slightly curious.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 10:49:55 GMT -8
I want AAPL to go up which goes without saying. With the volume today I just would like to know WHO THE HELL IS SELLING AT THESE PRICES? Profit takers who are at risk of regretting it down the road?
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 28, 2015 11:06:24 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 28, 2015 11:08:25 GMT -8
Thank you. * Apple is where it is because they didn't release a phone the size of the Samsung Galaxy S3 (not the Note - no one wants a huge phablet like that but the size of the Galaxy is obviously, clearly, indubitably the right size). * The exact moment that Apple the company and Aapl jumped the shark was this one and I knew it the moment I saw it: www.redvipcard.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/samsung-galaxy-s3-vs-iphone-5.jpeg * Apple can unjump the shark and return to its glory by releasing an iPhone 6 that is the same size at the Galaxy. It's that simple. They could keep everything else the same, just do that, and in a few months all the annoying people talking about luxury cars on this board would be doing it again. If your basing your investment decisions on what size screen a company decides to put in a phone, I'm happy for you that you are no longer investing in Apple. You can keep saying that numbers don't definitely prove that people prefer a bigger screen size (you can keep saying it, though it's ridiculous) but it doesn't matter because if you can't look at what an iPhone 5 looks like in terms of the wow factor compared to a larger Samsung then there's nothing I can write here that will get you to see it. And I'm just about the biggest Apple guy around and own just about every product they make and, as I wrote previously, was 100% invested from 2007. After reading your post this morning (I somehow missed your previous posts) I went to the members archive and read all the posts you've made on this board. I was struck by the logical arguments that you repeatedly made and noticed that you never responded in a harsh or insulting manner even to some pointed comments made to you. I'm happy, as we are all on this board, that Apple has had such success with the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6+ and your supposition about larger iPhones was absolutely correct. I hope that you will continue to comment on the board. Your enthusiasm for Apple products and your constructive comments will be very much appreciated by myself and the majority of other members of the board. As to your reference to the small number of comments you've made over your time on the board, I, and most others look to the content of the post, not the quantity of previous comments.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jan 28, 2015 11:08:32 GMT -8
Is it unfair of me to be completely flabbergasted that AAPL is up less than 10% and still below its ATH after one of the biggest blowout quarters in US corporate history?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 11:12:40 GMT -8
I'm hurt Lucky. I have irritable post syndrome y'know
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Jan 28, 2015 11:13:50 GMT -8
Just received my proxy notice email for the shareholders meeting March 10.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 11:14:02 GMT -8
Is it unfair of me to be completely flabbergasted that AAPL is up less than 10% and still below its ATH after one of the biggest blowout quarters in US corporate history? If a bull, see if there's conviction for a buy/add in there somewhere? Call me crazy but I think there's opportunity. I get this feeling (non-advice of course) that this did NOT make AAPL's entire year. Not even close.
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Post by sponge on Jan 28, 2015 11:20:07 GMT -8
Just for the record, Jonny Ives made it clear why they did not build a larger iPhone 3 years ago. Apple brought the product to market only when they felt it met their standards. Same will go for the Apple TV set. It is not about timing or what everyone else is doing. MACs are growing while the PC market is shrinking. That only happened in the last 9 years out of 35 years. Patience is needed in this race.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 28, 2015 11:20:56 GMT -8
Is it unfair of me to be completely flabbergasted that AAPL is up less than 10% and still below its ATH after one of the biggest blowout quarters in US corporate history? I believe we are still seeing the unwinding of positions taken prior to the earnings announcement. This can take a few days. The volume today is quite astounding and reflects a lot of rebalancing and repositioning. The sorting out will run its course in the next day or two...but it may take until Monday. It's all good....buyers can feel pretty darn safe here...
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Post by jeff99 on Jan 28, 2015 11:26:07 GMT -8
Thanks, Luckychoices. Particularly as my post this morning was (faux) arrogant, I appreciate it. Not sure anyone on this board will be too thrilled with my prediction for the Apple Watch, though After reading your post this morning (I somehow missed your previous posts) I went to the members archive and read all the posts you've made on this board. I was struck by the logical arguments that you repeatedly made and noticed that you never responded in a harsh or insulting manner even to some pointed comments made to you. I'm happy, as we are all on this board, that Apple has had such success with the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6+ and your supposition about larger iPhones was absolutely correct. I hope that you will continue to comment on the board. Your enthusiasm for Apple products and your constructive comments will be very much appreciated by myself and the majority of other members of the board. As to your reference to the small number of comments you've made over your time on the board, I, and most others look to the content of the post, not the quantity of previous comments.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,556
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Post by mark on Jan 28, 2015 11:27:03 GMT -8
I want AAPL to go up which goes without saying. With the volume today I just would like to know WHO THE HELL IS SELLING AT THESE PRICES? Option volume is huge today, so the number of shares traded isn't a good indication of people "selling" per se. It could be [mostly] rationalizing positions that have options and stock combined.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 28, 2015 11:36:00 GMT -8
I spent the better part of two years at Braeburn. Any "analyst" that gets close is getting there purely by fluke. It is all guesswork, because there is so much that is entirely unknowable about Apple. PED gets page hits from this silliness, but it should be regarded as purely for entertainment only. I have nothing against the home gamer since modelling the company leads to better understanding. But this public smack down stuff is a sham. Nonsense. This all started because for years, WS seriously underestimated Apple's earnings and Amatuers were closer. I used to be pretty damn close quarter after quarter and yes, it was "guessing" but at least back then, it was smaller numbers, fewer products, more predictable seasonal and historical trends, fewer points of sale, fewer producers of pieces and parts. You could make assumptions based on historical guidance and beats, etc. I did a lot of store checks to see what was sitting on shelves. Yes, it was a limited amount of information but many of us were a lot closer than anyone on WS. Hence PEDs attempt at shaming. I haven't posted numbers in ages because as big as Apple is and as diversified as they are, it's really difficult to make estimates, I don't care who you are. Historical/Seasonal trends went out the window as growth slowed and the product cycle got crammed into the Dec. quarter. We have a much better idea how things are selling in the U.S. but no real clue about overseas. Yes, I wish they would stop. WS does worse when Apple is growing and the rookies get creamed when the opposite happens. Also, the stupid high numbers only help to push up expectations. I imagine "the beat" would be consistently higher if not for those. That ding said, I'll take the guesstimates of Mercel, Mav and Red over WS any day. Congrats to the longs, looking forward to a great year, I'm pretty sure Uncle Carl is gonna push this even higher.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 28, 2015 11:43:51 GMT -8
Yes, Chas....my $2.67 WAG was so close this time around....missed it by "that much'....
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