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Post by BillH on Jan 28, 2015 11:44:16 GMT -8
Thanks, Luckychoices. Particularly as my post this morning was (faux) arrogant, I appreciate it. Not sure anyone on this board will be too thrilled with my prediction for the Apple Watch, though After reading your post this morning (I somehow missed your previous posts) I went to the members archive and read all the posts you've made on this board. I was struck by the logical arguments that you repeatedly made and noticed that you never responded in a harsh or insulting manner even to some pointed comments made to you. I'm happy, as we are all on this board, that Apple has had such success with the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6+ and your supposition about larger iPhones was absolutely correct. I hope that you will continue to comment on the board. Your enthusiasm for Apple products and your constructive comments will be very much appreciated by myself and the majority of other members of the board. As to your reference to the small number of comments you've made over your time on the board, I, and most others look to the content of the post, not the quantity of previous comments. I've never been particularly concerned about who (myself included) is right or wrong. I'm very concerned about trying to get it right however so I'm interested in all points of view. Doesn't mean I'll agree with them but it will almost always make me give additional thought to any particular issue. One question I have for instance is how much of this quarters success is SINGLY related to screen size. There were many android adopters who started there thinking that the old PC/Mac thing would repeat itself in terms of price and software choices. Now that it's becoming more and more clear that this isn't playing out the way they imagined they may be changing their choice based on the current reality. This we do not know. I bought a 6 but if a 5s screen were available with the updated innards I would have chosen that. My point is that if it's merely screen size driving the choice I feel less secure about Apples moat. If the answer is other than that....ca ching.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 12:10:24 GMT -8
Thanks, Luckychoices. Particularly as my post this morning was (faux) arrogant, I appreciate it. Not sure anyone on this board will be too thrilled with my prediction for the Apple Watch, though Do tell! I'm still at base assumption of 10M units by FY 2015. Maybe a bit less now due to later launch.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 12:10:59 GMT -8
I'm not a fan of moat theory when it comes to Apple.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2015 12:13:19 GMT -8
I spent the better part of two years at Braeburn. Any "analyst" that gets close is getting there purely by fluke. It is all guesswork, because there is so much that is entirely unknowable about Apple. PED gets page hits from this silliness, but it should be regarded as purely for entertainment only. I have nothing against the home gamer since modelling the company leads to better understanding. But this public smack down stuff is a sham. Nonsense. This all started because for years, WS seriously underestimated Apple's earnings and Amatuers were closer. I used to be pretty damn close quarter after quarter and yes, it was "guessing" but at least back then, it was smaller numbers, fewer products, more predictable seasonal and historical trends, fewer points of sale, fewer producers of pieces and parts. You could make assumptions based on historical guidance and beats, etc. I did a lot of store checks to see what was sitting on shelves. Yes, it was a limited amount of information but many of us were a lot closer than anyone on WS. Hence PEDs attempt at shaming. I haven't posted numbers in ages because as big as Apple is and as diversified as they are, it's really difficult to make estimates, I don't care who you are. Historical/Seasonal trends went out the window as growth slowed and the product cycle got crammed into the Dec. quarter. We have a much better idea how things are selling in the U.S. but no real clue about overseas. Yes, I wish they would stop. WS does worse when Apple is growing and the rookies get creamed when the opposite happens. Also, the stupid high numbers only help to push up expectations. I imagine "the beat" would be consistently higher if not for those. That ding said, I'll take the guesstimates of Mercel, Mav and Red over WS any day. Congrats to the longs, looking forward to a great year, I'm pretty sure Uncle Carl is gonna push this even higher. The WS analyst's job is not to nail earnings estimates. They are far happier being conservative and basically taking what the company guides to and factoring any materially impactful data that might have come up in between. Notice the trend of the analysts forecasting ridiculously low when Apple provided extremely conservative guidance, and now more realistic estimates as Apple guides more accurately. I find it hard to praise Apple for blowing their own absurdly low guidance out of the water and criticizing the analysts for getting it wrong. The analysts uses company guidance as a base for their estimates. At the end of the day, they don't really care as their performance is not assessed by the accuracy of their estimates. Since companies are not required to guide accurately, and analysts do little other than copy company guidance, actual reported results are really all that matter to me, in addition to personal observation about the strength and future of the company. Guidance and earnings beat/miss is just a cause of short term noise.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 28, 2015 12:28:42 GMT -8
I'm hurt Lucky. I have irritable post syndrome y'know My quantity of posts reference wasn't directed at you, Mav. I don't even notice the number of posts you've made anymore and couldn't come close to the number if I were asked to guess...OMG!! Over 10,000 posts!!
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Post by BillH on Jan 28, 2015 12:31:47 GMT -8
I'm not a fan of moat theory when it comes to Apple. I understand what you're saying (I think) but I've known far to many PC guys who would switch to a Mac were it not for the pain involved. They don't even care about the price differential. To me...,that's a moat and I believe it will work in reverse should the time ever come.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 12:33:07 GMT -8
I was only kidding. I have a "rep" around here. Oh well. At least I'm not a mod! Bwahaha. EARNINGS ALERT: I think AMZN reports tomorrow or something?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 12:34:53 GMT -8
I'm not a fan of moat theory when it comes to Apple. I understand what you're saying (I think) but I've known far to many PC guys who would switch to a Mac were it not for the pain involved. They don't even care about the price differential. To me...,that's a moat and I believe it will work in reverse should the time ever come. That's BS. Get Parallels you Luddites. I mean moat implies more of a fixed territory than expanding.
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Post by macwire on Jan 28, 2015 12:35:35 GMT -8
Watch this general market close. Could flush. Taking aapl with it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 12:38:01 GMT -8
Watch this general market close. Could flush. Taking aapl with it. Not like it matters, but yeah I took my slight gains (too chicken before earnings) and am kinda watching from the sidelines for now.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 28, 2015 12:38:10 GMT -8
Thanks, Luckychoices. Particularly as my post this morning was (faux) arrogant, I appreciate it. Not sure anyone on this board will be too thrilled with my prediction for the Apple Watch, though After reading your post this morning (I somehow missed your previous posts) I went to the members archive and read all the posts you've made on this board. I was struck by the logical arguments that you repeatedly made and noticed that you never responded in a harsh or insulting manner even to some pointed comments made to you. I'm happy, as we are all on this board, that Apple has had such success with the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6+ and your supposition about larger iPhones was absolutely correct. I hope that you will continue to comment on the board. Your enthusiasm for Apple products and your constructive comments will be very much appreciated by myself and the majority of other members of the board. As to your reference to the small number of comments you've made over your time on the board, I, and most others look to the content of the post, not the quantity of previous comments. You're welcome. But as far as your prediction for the Apple Watch is concerned, I should emphasize that I made my comment not because you insisted that a larger phone would sell well, and they are, but because of the calm, rational manner in which you explained your opinion. And that's what our comments are, for the most part, opinions. If we could actually could explain for sure what was going to happen with AAPL, with any accuracy at all, we'd be analysts.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 28, 2015 13:03:48 GMT -8
IMHO: MY WAG: AAPL will trade over 100 million shares today. AAPL will be over $120 TODAY at some time. I don't know where it will close. DYODD! over 42 million shares traded in the first 1/2 hour over 103 million shares traded by NOON Central over 144 million shares traded by close high of the day = $118.12
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 28, 2015 13:11:47 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 13:37:44 GMT -8
I understand what you're saying (I think) but I've known far to many PC guys who would switch to a Mac were it not for the pain involved. They don't even care about the price differential. To me...,that's a moat and I believe it will work in reverse should the time ever come. That's BS. Get Parallels you Luddites. I mean moat implies more of a fixed territory than expanding. Parallels is cheap, fast and allows one to run multiple OS' seamlessly. Luddites is being too kind, Mav.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 13:40:02 GMT -8
Apple blew off the doors yesterday and it's up $2 over Monday's close. Maybe Apple should buy Netflix so the stock moves on great news.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 28, 2015 13:40:14 GMT -8
Thanks, Luckychoices. Particularly as my post this morning was (faux) arrogant, I appreciate it. Not sure anyone on this board will be too thrilled with my prediction for the Apple Watch, though I've never been particularly concerned about who (myself included) is right or wrong. I'm very concerned about trying to get it right however so I'm interested in all points of view. Doesn't mean I'll agree with them but it will almost always make me give additional thought to any particular issue. One question I have for instance is how much of this quarters success is SINGLY related to screen size. There were many android adopters who started there thinking that the old PC/Mac thing would repeat itself in terms of price and software choices. Now that it's becoming more and more clear that this isn't playing out the way they imagined they may be changing their choice based on the current reality. This we do not know. I bought a 6 but if a 5s screen were available with the updated innards I would have chosen that. My point is that if it's merely screen size driving the choice I feel less secure about Apples moat. If the answer is other than that....ca ching. I completely agree with what you said here. I wasn't clear in my comment that I was complementing jeff8687 for the way he expressed his opinion, not for being correct that a larger size iPhone would be well received. Although I know several people with an iPhone 6, including myself and my wife, I don't know anyone with an iPhone 6+. That being said, I'm very happy Apple decided to give people a choice because obviously many people are buying the larger size. As far as your question about the success of this quarter singly being related to screen size, I don't feel that it is but have no way to prove it. However, I do feel that by providing a choice in screen size, Apple unleashed a heretofore untapped market composed of people who wanted an iPhone, but not a smaller screen size. So we still would have had the tsunami of iPhone 6 sales that we've seen, it just would have been a smaller tsunami.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 28, 2015 13:48:50 GMT -8
Strongly related, but tough to quantify. Good move? Probably.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 28, 2015 14:00:10 GMT -8
"Apple lost more money to currency fluctuations than Google makes in a quarter. And yet it’s Google that is feared, and Apple that is feared for." A good piece by Ben Thompson: stratechery.com/2015/bad-assumptions/
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 28, 2015 14:17:15 GMT -8
Is it unfair of me to be completely flabbergasted that AAPL is up less than 10% and still below its ATH after one of the biggest blowout quarters in US corporate history? Is is unfair of me to be completely flabbergasted that AAPL's market cap is up less than 2% in the last 2.5 years?
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 28, 2015 14:57:30 GMT -8
Is it unfair of me to be completely flabbergasted that AAPL is up less than 10% and still below its ATH after one of the biggest blowout quarters in US corporate history? Is is unfair of me to be completely flabbergasted that AAPL's market cap is up less than 2% in the last 2.5 years? Carl, is that you?
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Post by roni on Jan 28, 2015 17:46:25 GMT -8
I spent the better part of two years at Braeburn. Any "analyst" that gets close is getting there purely by fluke. It is all guesswork, because there is so much that is entirely unknowable about Apple. PED gets page hits from this silliness, but it should be regarded as purely for entertainment only. I have nothing against the home gamer since modelling the company leads to better understanding. But this public smack down stuff is a sham. Mav likes this. I used to do models. I have more time now, being retired, but less interest. I read a lot, I write a little. I do kind of a global 3-6 month view on Apple that is basically a thumbs up or thumbs sideways or thumbs down view if Apple share price, and buy naked calls/LEAPS accordingly. About 20-30% of our portfolios are in calls or cash, the rest in dividend growth stocks. That part was funded by incredible gains in calls/LEAPS from 2009-2012. We live in the Central time zone, about 110 miles from Cuba in the Yucatán Peninsula. I get up and monitor the market open, go walk a few kilometers at the local sports field, do some shopping and come home. About 1:00 I go lay out in the sun for a bit, get in the pool if it is warm enough and then come in a watch the market close with a rum and diet coke. Many days I take a siesta after that. Life is good and profitable without modeling Apple's sales or earnings, but it was a good learning experience.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 28, 2015 17:54:16 GMT -8
I used to do models too, but as I've gotten older and fatter, I pretty much have to settle for accountants and lawyers now.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 28, 2015 18:12:52 GMT -8
aaplfinance.proboards.com/post/71608A COMPARISON YEAR TO YEAR Annual report 2013 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312513416534/d590790d10k.htmAnnual report 2014 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312514383437/d783162d10k.htm899,738,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 18, 2013. OR X 7= 6,298,166,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 18, 2013. 5,864,840,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 10, 2014. The 10-Q & 8-K have been filed. www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000320193&owner=include&start=0&count=405,824,748,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of January 9, 2015891,989,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of January 10, 2014 OR X 7= 6,243,923,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of January 10, 2014
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 28, 2015 18:13:04 GMT -8
I used to do models too, but as I've gotten older and fatter, I pretty much have to settle for accountants and lawyers now. The mind boggles..... I read somewhere that AAPL usually takes 3-5 days to digest even very good earnings before making a sustained move. This quarter is most like January 2012. I'll have to look back then to see how it acted...
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 28, 2015 18:34:59 GMT -8
Condescension alert courtesy of Dan Nathan: I mean, what do you even say about a jerk like this? I'd give my Mav's left nut to debate this jerk on CNBC, and have him explain to viewers how he's generated more returns to justify his fees than we dumb schmo retailers who merely bought and held Apple. Gah, this fathead makes me wanna holla! I'm a true believer because of due diligence! Buffett and Lynch said to buy companies you believe in, dumb bunny! And I've beaten Buffett by doing exactly that! A little background, Nathan was on CNBC yesterday already talking shit about Apple right after it announced the biggest quarter in the history of carbon-based lifeforms. Nathan referred to HATE (emphasis his) on Twitter afterward on his blog, and walked back a lot of his CNBC blather on his blog. But I've been watching this idiot's Apple hate long enough to know better. OK, I feel better now. No more CNBC for me for another 90 days. It's Wing Wednesday at Pizza Hut, so gotta go.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 28, 2015 18:54:28 GMT -8
a YOSEMITE update is available. it is a big one 7 minutes 2 bongs!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 28, 2015 21:26:18 GMT -8
453.07 456.48 97,920,900 61.75 Jan 30, 2012 445.71 453.90 445.39 453.01 94,835,300 61.28 Jan 27, 2012 444.34 448.48 443.77 447.28 74,927,300 60.51 Jan 26, 2012 448.36 448.79 443.14 444.63 80,996,300 60.15 Jan 25, 2012 454.44 454.45 443.73 446.66 239,578,500 60.43 Jan 24, 2012 425.10 425.10 419.55 420.41 136,909,500 56.87 Jan 23, 2012 422.67 428.45 422.30 427.41 76,515,600 57.82 Jan 20, 2012 427.49 427.50 419.75 420.30 103,493,600 56.86 Jan 19, 2012 430.15 431.37 426.51 427.75 65,434,600 57.87 Jan 18, 2012 426.96 429.47 426.30
O.k.....here is the price action from the big beat in 2012. We went from 425 to 454 ( 56 to 60 split adjusted) but the run did not really kick in for a few days. By late February we were at 530.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 0:00:33 GMT -8
2012 was a wonderful but then terrible year for the unprepared (me), of course
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 0:01:58 GMT -8
Please don't touch the merchandise.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Jan 29, 2015 8:58:55 GMT -8
453.07 456.48 97,920,900 61.75 Jan 30, 2012 445.71 453.90 445.39 453.01 94,835,300 61.28 Jan 27, 2012 444.34 448.48 443.77 447.28 74,927,300 60.51 Jan 26, 2012 448.36 448.79 443.14 444.63 80,996,300 60.15 Jan 25, 2012 454.44 454.45 443.73 446.66 239,578,500 60.43 Jan 24, 2012 425.10 425.10 419.55 420.41 136,909,500 56.87 Jan 23, 2012 422.67 428.45 422.30 427.41 76,515,600 57.82 Jan 20, 2012 427.49 427.50 419.75 420.30 103,493,600 56.86 Jan 19, 2012 430.15 431.37 426.51 427.75 65,434,600 57.87 Jan 18, 2012 426.96 429.47 426.30 O.k.....here is the price action from the big beat in 2012. We went from 425 to 454 ( 56 to 60 split adjusted) but the run did not really kick in for a few days. By late February we were at 530. Wow, the volumes (in terms of $$$) were SO MUCH higher back then, it's incredible. 1/25/12 looks like more than 10 times a high volume day in 2015!
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