Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 3:45:04 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. On a 'normal' day I'd say we're up nicely in premarket. AAPL is GREEN trading at 116.15 +0.84 (0.73%) as of 6:16. But after yesterday's disappointing finish, I'm concerned about AAPL's momentum. Good news is major indices are all GREEN as well so there are no headwinds this morning. ATH today? In the news... I'm a little worried about JD -- he sent a CNBC link. Do they have that new medical marijuana in SoCal? Here's Cramer courtesy of JD. What's next Melissa Lee? I guess it's true, anything looks good in the right light. Reuters has Apple takes top gifting spot in China. It's going to be another record quarter. [ARE YOU LISTENING WALL STREET?] More details still bubbling out of the Apple earnings reports. Like R&D at Apple increases by 42 percent, hits $1.9B or this Apple ties for title of world’s largest smartphone vendor in Q4 2014. Fortune worded the later in a way many here will appreciate: Samsung's smartphone primacy under threat from Apple after weak Q4. Now where is that clip of Balmer laughing at the iPhone? My favorite headline of the morning, actually last night, is CNN/Money's The Most Amazing Thing About Apple? It Still Looks Cheap. My family complains we're not diversified enough -- I keep asking for someone to show me a better opportunity. Have a great day. Let's make money. And would somebody please hit the launch button...
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 4:29:52 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 6:04:03 GMT -8
Quiet on the board today.
The calm before the storm or did I miss something?
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 6:12:39 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jan 29, 2015 6:22:11 GMT -8
Reading the 10-K, there are some interesting pieces of data which point to strong future demand for Apple products. Apple stated that they had outstanding off-balance sheet third-party manufacturing and component purchase commitments of $21.6 billion, which is up 34% year-on-year. In comparison, Q114 saw a 15% decline year-on-year.
Apple also stated that they anticipate spending $13 billion for capital expenditure.
This morning I was listened to the earnings conference call of Renishaw, a British precision engineering company. Their precision measurements and calibration systems are used in the manufacture of iPhones (perhaps also for the Apple Watch) and they have raised their profit forecasts about five times since last summer, including twice in the last month. Renishaw management expressed their strong confidence that they will receive more large orders (at short notice) from these Far Eastern component manufacturers. The question is… for which future Apple products? I presume that tooling is complete for the Apple Watch, if it is shipping in April. An unknown Apple product or the next iteration of the iPhone?
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Post by rob_london on Jan 29, 2015 6:29:01 GMT -8
The short-term trading question: will the post-earnings gap get filled or will AAPL power upwards?
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 29, 2015 6:30:02 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 6:44:41 GMT -8
Thanks. Fixed the original link.
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2015 6:57:33 GMT -8
Good start for today,
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 8:21:28 GMT -8
Interesting in the context of the broader market. Money is flowing into Apple.
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2015 8:40:21 GMT -8
AAPL in not on the Selling on Strength list as of 11:33am. May not mean much, but at least not negative trend.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 8:48:30 GMT -8
Troy Wolverton at the San Jose Mercury News: Despite Apple Gains, Android Rules Smartphones. Money quote "Even though Apple sold a record number of iPhones over the holidays, it’s still an Android world." Reminds one of the Windows apologists, or was it Monty Python, "I'm not dead yet". I clicked so you don't have to. The link. Edited to include Monty Python link. Far more enjoyable.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 29, 2015 9:01:32 GMT -8
Good start for today, The next few months will be everyone waiting for the "one/two punch" coming in April - first the Apple Watch will hit the market, and then a few short weeks later they will report Q2 earnings (that will presumably still have lots of iPhone 6/6+ "pent up" demand being filled).
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Post by podboy on Jan 29, 2015 9:04:21 GMT -8
My DITM LEAPS are not moving today. None of them are, weird.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 29, 2015 9:09:47 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 9:26:03 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Jan 29, 2015 9:36:55 GMT -8
Brilliant commentary, Mav!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 9:38:20 GMT -8
Thanks. I tried to account for bearishness. I may have failed.
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Post by jmolloy on Jan 29, 2015 9:43:47 GMT -8
Troy Wolverton at the San Jose Mercury News: Despite Apple Gains, Android Rules Smartphones. Money quote "Even though Apple sold a record number of iPhones over the holidays, it’s still an Android world." Reminds one of the Windows apologists, or was it Monty Python, "I'm not dead yet". I clicked so you don't have to. The link. Edited to include Monty Python link. Far more enjoyable. Troy has form: Being just two examples.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 29, 2015 9:55:22 GMT -8
I'm looking at those gorgeous new Apple Stores in China..imagining more being built and opened in the months ahead...then I'm imagining the Gold Edition Apple Watch showcased in those beautiful stores. I don't really care what the price is; it will be priced correctly. But the demand.....
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 29, 2015 10:27:00 GMT -8
TL;RA (too long; read anyway) Thanks for posting. This point is so obvious to us, but why not to the naysayers?
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Post by rob_london on Jan 29, 2015 10:48:54 GMT -8
Argus analyst report:
"Our more forward-looking, two-state discounted free cash flow model renders a value for AAPL north of $200. Our fundamental valuation model points to a price near $200. Apple's dividend provides a current yield of about 1.6%. Appreciation to our 12-month target price of $135 (raised from $125) implies a risk-adjusted total return of 16%, exceeding our forecast for the broad market."
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2015 10:49:11 GMT -8
I won't take that bet.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 11:00:57 GMT -8
Hey wow 118
EDIT: Sorry iPad WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE (hope I didn't call it early)
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 29, 2015 11:20:48 GMT -8
Apologies to Since84 for missing the same link in his wonderful-as-usual morning news wrap-up
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Post by rob_london on Jan 29, 2015 11:25:27 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 11:29:06 GMT -8
Apologies to Since84 for missing the same link in his wonderful-as-usual morning news wrap-up Hey, no problem. It's hard to keep track of what has and has not been posted.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 29, 2015 11:49:04 GMT -8
I agree. Very well stated Mav. The logic is undeniable.....Nice job!
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Post by mace on Jan 29, 2015 11:55:29 GMT -8
My DITM LEAPS are not moving today. None of them are, weird. Joking? Mine, Leaps 2017 $100 up $2 less than $3.45 by share price.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 29, 2015 12:01:22 GMT -8
TL;RA (too long; read anyway) Thanks for posting. This point is so obvious to us, but why not to the naysayers? Well one problem is that the TV hosts don't ask this obvious question when they have dunderheads on. This logic should be ridiculed. I'll bet if someone tried this shit with Uncle Carl on at the same time, he'd blast them. I think Exxon-Mobil is the best example. Why don't they need a new energy product every couple of years? Not to mention, Google, Facebook, MSFT, Twitter, etc. The lovely Kelly Evans had one of these dumb bunnies named Michael Obuchowski on today (I see short CNBC clips on linked on Yahoo finance). It looked like she asked "why is this a bad thing?" but the video cut off. Seriously though, these people need to be mocked and ridiculed for this "Apple sells a billion iPhones, Apple hardest hit" bullshit. Ridiculed. As for Cramer, look, I am all for drawing attention to capitulators on Apple. I think it's great that Alex Bat Guano has seen the light. At least Guana isn't guilty of the "I'll ride my bear thesis down into the abyss no matter what Apple reports" derangement syndrome like a Zabitsky. If Cramer's clown act has to exist, then I'd rather he be telling Joe Sixpack to ignore the dunderheads and just buy and hold AAPL and STFU, as he says in the video linked in the first post today. Obviously, in an ideal world, financial shows would be sober, informative news sources for the investor and trader. Instead, they are clown acts for Joe Sixpack. Just listen to the dude who calls into Cramer about Go Pro after his Apple rant ends. Total mouth breather. We really need to teach financial literacy as part of a core HS and college curriculum. The average Econ grad doesn't even know how to open a brokerage account.
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