chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 29, 2015 12:07:18 GMT -8
I believe we are still seeing the unwinding of positions taken prior to the earnings announcement. This can take a few days. The volume today is quite astounding and reflects a lot of rebalancing and repositioning. The sorting out will run its course in the next day or two...but it may take until Monday. It's all good....buyers can feel pretty darn safe here... These are looking like very wise words, Red, as both volume and price action remain solid.
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jz
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"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
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Post by jz on Jan 29, 2015 12:14:53 GMT -8
I believe we are still seeing the unwinding of positions taken prior to the earnings announcement. This can take a few days. The volume today is quite astounding and reflects a lot of rebalancing and repositioning. The sorting out will run its course in the next day or two...but it may take until Monday. It's all good....buyers can feel pretty darn safe here... These are looking like very wise words, Red, as both volume and price action remain solid. Any frequent traders out there selling at $118.95 to jump back in tomorrow at a lower price?
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Post by electrobuzz on Jan 29, 2015 12:25:06 GMT -8
These are looking like very wise words, Red, as both volume and price action remain solid. Any frequent traders out there selling at $118.95 to jump back in tomorrow at a lower price? Would depend on the max pain range for tomorrow. Anybody knows where it stands currently?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 29, 2015 12:34:14 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 29, 2015 12:34:42 GMT -8
Any frequent traders out there selling at $118.95 to jump back in tomorrow at a lower price? Would depend on the max pain range for tomorrow. Anybody knows where it stands currently? We already had the big one, LEAPS expiry on 1/17, plus, this is a rather bullish week, to put it mildly. So I think pain effects will be limited. Medium sized call wall @ 120. The open interest gets all skewed after a big single-day move.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 29, 2015 12:46:16 GMT -8
One of inevitable pieces from the weak-minded, courtesy of David Goldman, CNN: Tim Cook's Apple is hot. But can it keep going? Since his name didn't ring a bell, I searched for other Apple articles he's written. This one from May of 2014 satisfied me that he was an objective analyst: Why I broke up with Apple
Here's a few "surprising" (yawn) comments from his exciting and unbiased article:
But there are also reasons to believe that Cook faces a tougher road ahead. Too much iPhone reliance. Apple is hugely reliant on the iPhone -- the iPhone accounts for 69% of Apple's revenue. That's a potential problem, because smartphone sales are slowing in most of the biggest iPhone markets.
I particularly like a comment like this, where a clueless analyst quotes a different clueless analyst: In the United States and Western Europe about 70% of cell phone customers own a smartphone. Going forward, smartphone sales will likely only grow by about 5% to 10% a year, according to Colin Gillis, analyst at BGC partners. Oh, BGC Partners? You mean the BGC Partners who just downgraded AAPL from Buy to Hold on 01/27/15?
If those new products fail to take off, Cook is running out of tricks up his sleeve to keep Apple growing.
For Apple Pay to move the needle just 1% on Apple's expected 2015 revenue, Apple Pay would need to be used in $1.4 trillion worth of transactions. To put that in perspective, that's about twice what Americans spent during the entire holiday shopping season last year.
Here's a few of the more intelligent rebuttals to his commentary ======================== Norman The cellphone market is currently over 3 billion units, and those will all be smartphones eventually. To say that Apple is too dependent on phones is like saying BMW is too dependent on cars, or people are too dependent on breathing! Smartphones are a giant market, growing quickly worldwide, and Apple owns the profitable high end, with loyal customers and a sticky ecosystem. They will have giant growth over the next few quarters as more customers upgrade to iPhone 6 and the world smartphone market explodes, and they always have lots of stuff in the pipeline. The evidence at this point is all on the side of growth! == DonP Agree Norman....and, most people have not even upgraded their iPhones yet!.....I wish we would see an article about the financial track record of all of these financial analysts who were predicting 63M until sold and $80 share price in January....seems like you really do not need to have a lot of skill to be a professional financial analyst. == local yahoo user it is so amazing these analysts keep saying Applepay won't generate any significant income, but don't they know that once you use apple pay, you will stay and upgrade to the next iPhone. That is where the profit will come from…. The customer come and bite the apple and just want more…that is the point - stop saying apple is the phone company because phone and communication are the same. People will need one for another.. == RobertP David Goldman wrote this article, but can he keep up this level of inane #$%$? Probably. == DonP Let me see, based upon David's analysis....I now have one house, one car, one dog, one set of golf clubs, one winter coat, and one large screen TV.....I guess I am set....all of the people who sell those things (and dog) are soon going out of business....we are finished, I don't like anything new anyway
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Post by macwire on Jan 29, 2015 12:55:09 GMT -8
I wish I got yesterday's low but I won't complain. Next stop intraday ATH.
Market really needs some rotation out of defensive to see new ATH imo. Bonds need to stop ripping. XLU as well...
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2015 13:03:26 GMT -8
Wow.
Less than $1 to a new ATH. Not much more to $120.
I'm likin' this.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Jan 29, 2015 13:42:03 GMT -8
In non-apple news, Google tanked right after the close, but is recovering somewhat in ah.
Amazon missed revenues but beat earnings by a minuscule amount and jumped 11%-ish from opening. "Profit drops less than expected." Apple had a monster beat and went up, what, 2% that day?
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 29, 2015 14:14:55 GMT -8
Strange bedfellows:Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) are teaming up to file a transportation funding bill they say could bring back up to $2 trillion in corporate tax revenue currently in foreign banks to help pay for U.S. infrastructure projects. The unlikely duo said the measure would extend federal transportation programs that are currently scheduled to expire in May. Paul and Boxer said the tax reforms, known as repatriation, are the most viable way to pay for a long-term transportation funding bill this year. "The interstate highway system is of vital importance to our economy," Paul, who is a likely 2016 GOP presidential candidate, said in a statement. "All across the country, bridges and roads are deficient and in need of replacement," he continued. "We can help fund new construction and repair by lowering the repatriation rate and bringing money held by U.S. companies back home. This would mean no new taxes, but more revenue, and it is a solution that should win support from both political parties.” Boxer, who is retiring at the end of 2016, also said the plan to use revenue from taxing oversees corporate profits was a more politically viable alternative to boost federal infrastructure funding than increasing the nation's 18.4 cents-per-gallon gas tax, which has been discussed in recent weeks as prices at the pump have fallen sharply. thehill.com/policy/transportation/231141-paul-boxer-team-up-for-invest-in-transportation-act
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Post by geraci on Jan 29, 2015 14:50:18 GMT -8
Am I reading correctly that Google had a big miss on earnings yet GOOGL is up 2% in after hours? Had the market priced in an even bigger miss? I don't get it.
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2015 15:01:23 GMT -8
artman1033
Thanks for the link. 6.5% is higher than the 5% figure Tim Cook threw out during his testimony before congress but I think would be acceptable to Apple for at least some repatriation of overseas holdings.
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Post by rickag on Jan 29, 2015 15:03:57 GMT -8
Am I reading correctly that Google had a big miss on earnings yet GOOGL is up 2% in after hours? Had the market priced in an even bigger miss? I don't get it. No rational cognizant human beig gets it, you're not alone.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 15:53:08 GMT -8
artman1033 Thanks for the link. 6.5% is higher than the 5% figure Tim Cook threw out during his testimony before congress but I think would be acceptable to Apple for at least some repatriation of overseas holdings. He said "a number in the single digits" IIRC.
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Post by macwire on Jan 29, 2015 17:09:13 GMT -8
here's what I see on my chart guys. Short term guys, you can see what happens when AAPL pierces 80 on RSI. I take my profits there generally unless I'm greedy and stupid. Which happens. If the market can doesn't become a net drag (very possible) I see a run up to 130.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2015 18:07:31 GMT -8
here's what I see on my chart guys. Short term guys, you can see what happens when AAPL pierces 80 on RSI. I take my profits there generally unless I'm greedy and stupid. Which happens. If the market can doesn't become a net drag (very possible) I see a run up to 130. Is the timing potentially end of February / beginning of March on this? If so, can anyone think of a fundamental catalyst that may happen or be announced at that time that can propel it there?...or are you thinking that the market itself does a melt up and we participate? Meanwhile Icahn thinks WS is crazy and that his $203 target for AAPL is way low.
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Post by macwire on Jan 29, 2015 18:14:55 GMT -8
here's what I see on my chart guys. Short term guys, you can see what happens when AAPL pierces 80 on RSI. I take my profits there generally unless I'm greedy and stupid. Which happens. If the market can doesn't become a net drag (very possible) I see a run up to 130. Is the timing potentially end of February / beginning of March on this? If so, can anyone think of a fundamental catalyst that may happen or be announced at that time that can propel it there?...or are you thinking that the market itself does a melt up and we participate? Meanwhile Icahn thinks WS is crazy and that his $203 target for AAPL is way low. Yes I think the timing is potentially within that time frame I think aapl can get there provided we don't see a 10 percent market correction type scenario Please please trade your own gut intuition and time frame I am just throwing out what I see. I'm an aggressive swing trader. I invalidate my own patterns when my stops are broken and I'm monitoring the earnings gap up low of the day as my stop
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2015 18:23:57 GMT -8
macwire - if anyone on this site isn't doing their own homework and incorporating the insights (both fundamentally and technically) of whichever person they feel is valuable...then they are a lost cause. I like to hear your perspective and compare it to others on different sites and then compare it to what is happening fundamentally. Furthermore, one has to pay attention to the overall sector and markets because they affect AAPL as well .... ah and then there is the occassional curve ball known as FUD that gets thrown out there too .... or "fat finger" that disrupts just about everything. So don't worry....we all proceed with caution...chillax.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 29, 2015 18:47:59 GMT -8
I think it is veryyyyyyy safe to assume there will be a late February to mid March Apple event to lay out the watch distribution, pricing and talk about the features in more detail....that will be the catalyst for the "psycho move", if needed.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 29, 2015 18:56:48 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Jan 29, 2015 19:29:32 GMT -8
macwire - if anyone on this site isn't doing their own homework and incorporating the insights (both fundamentally and technically) of whichever person they feel is valuable...then they are a lost cause. I like to hear your perspective and compare it to others on different sites and then compare it to what is happening fundamentally. Furthermore, one has to pay attention to the overall sector and markets because they affect AAPL as well .... ah and then there is the occassional curve ball known as FUD that gets thrown out there too .... or "fat finger" that disrupts just about everything. So don't worry....we all proceed with caution...chillax. I know you do just mean in general to any randoms lurkers We all know how sites like Bullish Cross crushed people when AAPL turned down.
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Post by macwire on Jan 29, 2015 19:31:10 GMT -8
I think it is veryyyyyyy safe to assume there will be a late February to mid March Apple event to lay out the watch distribution, pricing and talk about the features in more detail....that will be the catalyst for the "psycho move", if needed. Personally I could see April being the "time alignment" with capital returns and or continued buy backs There's an alignment of several events for sure General market gods permitting.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 20:33:42 GMT -8
I am proud to say I started my little blog right when AAPL AND my silly portfolio were cratering. So ego-free I have been ever since.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 29, 2015 20:36:12 GMT -8
I think it is veryyyyyyy safe to assume there will be a late February to mid March Apple event to lay out the watch distribution, pricing and talk about the features in more detail....that will be the catalyst for the "psycho move", if needed. Honestly, the crazy Q1 number, guide and overall buzz isn't driving AAPL right this minute? AAPL just trimmed its ttm EPS by 15% in a single quarter and everyone knows that's not the end of it for the fiscal year. Yes bullish case but it feels more like a game of AAPL chicken...or...something. Note the strong outperformance today. how high this goes this wave who knows. But the momentum is hardly on the wane far as I can tell.
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