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Post by pauls on Feb 5, 2015 11:19:56 GMT -8
"I'm 90% certain the initial rollout is going to be disastrous..."
I disagree. While I don't think it will become a must-have for each and every iPhone owner, neither was the original iPhone a must have for every cell phone owner. Yet, in time, one need only look around to see ordinary folks everywhere glued to their iPhones--folks that I can hardly fathom how they can afford it-- something that I never would have imagined when I stood in line for the first iPhone. I just didn't think the masses would feel the need to have a computer in their pocket 24/7. I thought the iPhone would do well, but 1 billion iOS units sold later, I realize that I wasn't thinking big enough, and really, couldn't see 5 yrs ahead. I think Apple underestimated their own coming success.
I don't see a watch in the same category, but I do see parallels to the iPhone roll-out. And while there will be the usual chorus of nay-sayers that accompany any new Apple product category, Apple will easily sell what they make and use this new category to help market, expand, and deepen their ecosystem trench. Apple's own view of their own roadmap is a much richer and more detailed view than it was at the dawn of iOS. They have since marketed and largely conquered the world, forged powerful alliances with customer and strategic partners alike, and can basically afford any talent, tool, or technology required to make any new hardware category a positive for the company.
It might be a slow uptake, and might require next-gen hardware functionality, or as yet unknown App functionality, but I am bullish that the Apple Watch will, at least, not hurt the brand or stock.
But I guess it depends on one's concept of 'disastrous'. While some will spend inordinate amounts of time and energy diss-ing the iWatch, Apple will quietly go on growing their brand, market share, and profits.
I can't see anyone in my own very Apple-centric household buying an Apple Watch in the next 12 months, but if I look around it isn't hard to imagine other folks buying them. Have you been to Vegas lately? I guarantee Apple Watch sightings in the wild will be common.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Feb 5, 2015 11:23:57 GMT -8
Sorry, but absolutely not (unless they only make a dozen watches). 1) There is no "killer" app / use case for the watch currently (that isn't already available in a less expensive wearable or on the phone on a bigger screen). This may change over time, no pun intended (Apple Pay, etc). But initially people will not be buying. 2) More importantly - and I haven't seen anyone else say this - initially, at least, the watch will be the first Apple product in recent memory that will not be seen as cool. The opposite, in fact. It's going to be like: "You own an iPhone and Macbook Air and iPad and and iMac and Apple TV? That's cool. Wait, you own the Apple Watch, too? You're a ridiculous fanboy (even if the person has never heard the word "fanboy") who has more money than you know what to do with." It's not going to be cool to wear an Apple Watch (initially, at least), it's going to be lame and embarrassing, like no matter what Apple puts their logo on, you'll blindly buy it. A few notes before the shells start flying: 1) I'm currently heavily invested in Apple and have been, mainly, since 2007. 2) I own all of the products above and am very pro-Apple. 3) Im not anti-wearables at all; in fact, I've owned just about every Fitbit model. But the Apple Watch? That dog ain't hunting, at least with respect to the initial rollout, barring something unforeseen. I should also note that when I posted previously about the need for a bigger screen iPhone to bring back aapl, I wasn't just throwing darts, I was 1000% certain I was correct about that - it was that obvious to me and I didn't even see how it was arguable or how others couldn't see it. This isn't that level of certainty and my mind can be changed (or I could be wrong). But, as of today, I'm 90% certain the initial rollout is going to be disastrous unless expectations are somehow really minimized like the Apple TV "hobby", which is doubtful. Since people like to make predictions around here... Apple will sell every watch they make. They will be difficult to buy. They will be aspirational like the iPhone was when it came out (before Samsung copied and it was hard tell what phone people had). Black market purchases will thrive. It will roll out to 1000s more points of sale far quicker than the iPhone could. No carrier issues. Foot traffic into stores will increase, people are going to want to come in and play with them. That really hasn't been the case for most products in the last few years. The watch solves a major problem for women - digging a phone out of their purse (call, text, shop). Men will be happy. Jeff, you may be right, but I'll take the other side on this for fun (cuz I like optimistic echo chambers ). 1. No killer app? It's not even out yet. You mean at its debut in 2014 there wasn't one? Maybe, but it's been months. Let's see what everybody comes up with before we pre-judge. I'm still hopeful there'll be some developer somewhere - at Apple or at large - that can come up with a really compelling use for the gadget, besides - just - telling time, Apple Pay, micro-messages, calendar, walking directions, health monitoring, Siri, Facebook & Twitter integration, etc. 2. You're being totally subjective. You perceive it as uncool, OK. Is it a luxury item? Yes. Will it have the same mainstream appeal of a smartphone? No. It'll sell in smaller numbers to probably more affluent people, but that's OK. Lame and embarrassing? I guess, to some, but I see this appealing to business execs, fashion-conscious technophiles and especially to wealthy Chinese, who have a very different frame of reference from you - and a growing desire for all things Apple… It'll have a new wow factor. People will wanna play with it. Apple customers have a lotta $.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 5, 2015 11:27:48 GMT -8
I think the watch is cool and people will want one as soon as they see it live in action. I have owned a Nike fuel band and a Fitbit and was quickly disappointed by their reliability and weak usability. Ended up returning them both.
Killer apps will be made by developers and haven't yet been announced, but style and usability will be high with this product. Early adopters are a limited group by definition, but I have no doubt the watch will catch on despite mountains of FUD.
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 11:29:05 GMT -8
No one is going to be peppered with questions on how many Apple products one owns if an Apple watch is on one's wrist -- that's a silly thing to be concerned about or fear. I'm not saying conversations like that will actually happen but I'm just trying to illustrate that it feels to me like this is the jumping off point where you switch from smart consumer appreciating fine products to appearing too blindly devoted to a brand / corporation.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 5, 2015 11:35:04 GMT -8
Phoebe - right now when you search in Safari (on your iPhone, for example) the results you get are delivered by Google. Google decides what to show you and also puts in ads. Advertisers pay google and Google pays Apple for letting them be the default search engine. Google makes a ton of money from this. Now Google's contract with Apple has expired, and they are renegotiating. But couldn't I just download it if I wanted to anyway? (Google, I mean.)
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 11:36:37 GMT -8
but I see this appealing to especially to wealthy Chinese, who have a very different frame of reference from you - and a growing desire for all things Apple… It'll have a new wow factor. People will wanna play with it. Apple customers have a lotta $. Agree that I'm mainly approaching it from a US-centric perspective; you may well be correct about the Chinese. Agree people will want to play with it. Don't agree with the "wow" factor. Also, my use of the word "disastrous" was inelegant and over-shoots the mark. I just meant I think the initial rollout will be considered a flop. I have no idea how that will affect AAPL.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 5, 2015 11:43:43 GMT -8
I dont' expect the Watch to be a monster, but it will sell. Using the Ensign's back of the hand rule of thumb, in our little office of about 400 I know there are at least six confirmed Apple Watch buyers just as soon as it comes out. Several others want to see the device on the wrists of their co-workers first. One of the IT guys is sporting his Galaxy Gear in our faces and says that he just can't see himself giving it up (or his Samsung phone) for any Apple product....so we got that going for us too.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 11:43:45 GMT -8
Phoebe - right now when you search in Safari (on your iPhone, for example) the results you get are delivered by Google. Google decides what to show you and also puts in ads. Advertisers pay google and Google pays Apple for letting them be the default search engine. Google makes a ton of money from this. Now Google's contract with Apple has expired, and they are renegotiating. But couldn't I just download it if I wanted to anyway? (Google, I mean.) You don't even have to download the alternatives (at least now), you merely go to preferences and change the default search engine. Google currently pays Apple to be the default. This is the contract that is rumored to be up for renewal. This is what Marissa says she is gunning for.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 11:47:08 GMT -8
BTW, I'm really enjoying the back and forth about Watch. There are excellent points on both sides.
How many think there will be first day lines and how long will the lines last?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 5, 2015 11:47:26 GMT -8
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Post by rezonate on Feb 5, 2015 11:54:44 GMT -8
When considering the Apple Watch, I must keep reminding myself that it is not a watch, any more than iPhone is a cell phone. The Apple Watch is an interface to your personal cloud of computing support, that happens to be strapped to your wrist. Think Star Trek Next Generation chest badges. Tap the thing and say "Computer, where is Mr. Worf?"
Your iPhone is already listening to you - say "Hey Siri" to wake it up if plugged in (unless disabled in settings). There is a sub-routine running all the time the device is powered up, just waiting for a request. In our house there have been a couple times a television broadcast woke Siri up, something said by one of the characters sounded enough like "Hey Siri".
"Hey Siri, please record the Deep Space 9 marathon tonight." Your Watch will take the order, transfer it to your Apple TV and probably set up a reminder to watch it 24 hours later. "Hey Siri, please confirm all lights are off and doors are locked. "Hey Siri, set the thermostats to 56ºF." "Hey Siri, how long before my Tesla is fully charged?" "Hey Siri, when is the next showing of Jupiter Ascending at my regular movie theatre?" You get the picture. Quick question, quick answer. You should not need to figure out which computing device to check for the information. Just ask out loud, the Watch goes to find the answer and then speaks the information. And tells the time.
"You need to leave in five minutes to make it to the airport on time. Traffic on RT-17 is really bad..."
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Post by pauls on Feb 5, 2015 11:56:16 GMT -8
"]it feels to me like this is the jumping off point where you switch from smart consumer appreciating fine products to appearing too blindly devoted to a brand / corporation."
That will be the official FUD line, yes.
But in reality people ARE devoted to the brand. More than devoted, they are intimate with it from the moment they wake up til they go to sleep. This isn't blind devotion, this is total commitment to an OS.I think you underestimate the flood gates that the iPhone opened in personal/mobile computing. Always on, always connected, always works, trustworthy and elegant-- Apple already did the hard part, and people have deeply embedded it into their lives.
Just having the ability to communicate and be notified in a business meeting, silently, without having to look at your phone will be a hugely compelling use case for a Watch that a LOT of people that sit in meetings (or at dinner tables LOL) will yearn for.
The FUD increasingly doesn't matter, imo. Too many people already completely satisfied and 'GET' the company, it's products, it's methods.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2015 12:02:42 GMT -8
2) More importantly - and I haven't seen anyone else say this - initially, at least, the watch will be the first Apple product in recent memory that will not be seen as cool. The opposite, in fact. It's going to be like: "You own an iPhone and Macbook Air and iPad and and iMac and Apple TV? That's cool. Wait, you own the Apple Watch, too? You're a ridiculous fanboy (even if the person has never heard the word "fanboy") who has more money than you know what to do with." It's not going to be cool to wear an Apple Watch (initially, at least), it's going to be lame and embarrassing, like no matter what Apple puts their logo on, you'll blindly buy it. Strongly disagree with this. The entire premise is a generalization and baseless. Only in Samsung ads, can you paint an entire user population with the same negative stereotype. To try and use this generalization on what will amount to millions of people making purchase decisions is flat out preposterous. Had a shock yesterday. My technologically challenged wife has a birthday coming up. The ONLY thing she wants is the Apple Watch. The reason is health related, and the tracking it will do. Calling her and those like her a ridiculous fanboy is a job that should be reserved for idiots like Blodgett.
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Post by macwire on Feb 5, 2015 12:12:00 GMT -8
aapl gap fill. Really? I mean. Really? ?
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 12:17:20 GMT -8
2) More importantly - and I haven't seen anyone else say this - initially, at least, the watch will be the first Apple product in recent memory that will not be seen as cool. The opposite, in fact. It's going to be like: "You own an iPhone and Macbook Air and iPad and and iMac and Apple TV? That's cool. Wait, you own the Apple Watch, too? You're a ridiculous fanboy (even if the person has never heard the word "fanboy") who has more money than you know what to do with." It's not going to be cool to wear an Apple Watch (initially, at least), it's going to be lame and embarrassing, like no matter what Apple puts their logo on, you'll blindly buy it. Strongly disagree with this. The entire premise is a generalization and baseless. Only in Samsung ads, can you paint an entire user population with the same negative stereotype. To try and use this generalization on what will amount to millions of people making purchase decisions is flat out preposterous. Had a shock yesterday. My technologically challenged wife has a birthday coming up. The ONLY thing she wants is the Apple Watch. The reason is health related, and the tracking it will do. Calling her and those like her a ridiculous fanboy is a job that should be reserved for idiots like Blodgett. It's a prediction as to what I think the reaction, as a whole, will be upon the initial rollout of this product. I don't believe everyone will think it's uncool any more than than I believe everyone prefers a large screen phone. Some people thought Google Glass was cool; consumers, as a whole, thought differently. Happy birthday to your wife.
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 12:20:38 GMT -8
"]it feels to me like this is the jumping off point where you switch from smart consumer appreciating fine products to appearing too blindly devoted to a brand / corporation." That will be the official FUD line, yes. But in reality people ARE devoted to the brand. More than devoted, they are intimate with it from the moment they wake up til they go to sleep. This isn't blind devotion, this is total commitment to an OS.I think you underestimate the flood gates that the iPhone opened in personal/mobile computing. Always on, always connected, always works, trustworthy and elegant-- Apple already did the hard part, and people have deeply embedded it into their lives. Just having the ability to communicate and be notified in a business meeting, silently, without having to look at your phone will be a hugely compelling use case for a Watch that a LOT of people that sit in meetings (or at dinner tables LOL) will yearn for. The FUD increasingly doesn't matter, imo. Too many people already completely satisfied and 'GET' the company, it's products, it's methods. I "GET" it, too; that's why I'm here. But I don't think that makes it impossible for me to also believe that - in 2015, at least - not as many consumers as expected will "get" this watch and place it in their shopping cart.
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Post by BillH on Feb 5, 2015 12:33:53 GMT -8
I've been thinking about this killer app thing. In broad generalities I think the concept needs to be relegated to the trash bin of days gone by. With 1000's (is it 1000's yet?) of apps available for your phone the diversity in what's "valued" by users must be pretty amazing. For some, candy crush may be the "killer" app. For another, Facebook or google finance. In any case it only takes one. My view is that Apple watch will build more slowly than is the common view here and at Braeburn but build it will. Disclaimer: I have no coherent reason to think the build will be slow other than all those empty wrists I see these days. Having said that, It may be a giant "Space Available" sign blinking at me and I just don't see it. :-o
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Post by zzmac on Feb 5, 2015 12:36:43 GMT -8
"]it feels to me like this is the jumping off point where you switch from smart consumer appreciating fine products to appearing too blindly devoted to a brand / corporation." That will be the official FUD line, yes. But in reality people ARE devoted to the brand. More than devoted, they are intimate with it from the moment they wake up til they go to sleep. This isn't blind devotion, this is total commitment to an OS.I think you underestimate the flood gates that the iPhone opened in personal/mobile computing. Always on, always connected, always works, trustworthy and elegant-- Apple already did the hard part, and people have deeply embedded it into their lives. Just having the ability to communicate and be notified in a business meeting, silently, without having to look at your phone will be a hugely compelling use case for a Watch that a LOT of people that sit in meetings (or at dinner tables LOL) will yearn for. The FUD increasingly doesn't matter, imo. Too many people already completely satisfied and 'GET' the company, it's products, it's methods. I "GET" it, too; that's why I'm here. But I don't think that makes it impossible for me to also believe that - in 2015, at least - not as many consumers as expected will "get" this watch and place it in their shopping cart. How many watches are you predicting they'll sell in the first 12 months?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 5, 2015 12:38:59 GMT -8
Wow, who knew that WATCH would be the driver of so many extended philosophical treatises on AFB? The wide divergence of opinion is pretty remarkable among a group of generally dedicated Apple enthusiasts. For myself, I don't anticipate ever getting one (not ruling it out, mind you), but I do think there is a large group for whom it will be very appealing, namely those who are heavy users of social media (which I am not). The majority of folks that I know or see who are virtually glued to their phones seem be those are constantly receiving input via social media, whether for business, pleasure or both. I have to believe that it will be very appealing to those folks to be able to check (and possibly respond to) the constant stream of notifications without removing their phone from their pocket or handbag. I think that is the "killer app" for the device. As others have mentioned, I am sure that developers over time will also add device-specific capabilities that we cannot yet imagine, which when combined with the convenience factor will make the WATCH seem like an indispensable part of their life. I welcome further opinions, positive or negative, especially from those of you whose are heavy users of social media.
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 12:43:20 GMT -8
I "GET" it, too; that's why I'm here. But I don't think that makes it impossible for me to also believe that - in 2015, at least - not as many consumers as expected will "get" this watch and place it in their shopping cart. How many watches are you predicting they'll sell in the first 12 months? That's not my department. I just think that whatever the amount sold the general sentiment (not only by Business Insider types) will be that this particular product was a flop on the initial rollout. Apple Watch 2.0 might be something different entirely; I'm definitely not writing off the wearables space or Apple's ability to capture it. I'm only speaking to the particular product that has to date been revealed to us.
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 12:45:39 GMT -8
Wow, who knew that WATCH would be the driver of so many extended philosophical treatises on AFB? The wide divergence of opinion is pretty remarkable among a group of generally dedicated Apple enthusiasts. For myself, I don't anticipate ever getting one (not ruling it out, mind you), but I do think there is a large group for whom it will be very appealing, namely those who are heavy users of social media (which I am not). The majority of folks that I know or see who are virtually glued to their phones seem be those are constantly receiving input via social media, whether for business, pleasure or both. I have to believe that it will be very appealing to those folks to be able to check (and possibly respond to) the constant stream of notifications without removing their phone from their pocket or handbag. I think that is the "killer app" for the device. As others have mentioned, I am sure that developers over time will also add device-specific capabilities that we cannot yet imagine, which when combined with the convenience factor will make the WATCH seem like an indispensable part of their life. I welcome further opinions, positive or negative, especially from those of you whose are heavy users of social media. FWIW, I'm a heavy user of social media. I just don't relish performing those functions on a microscopic screen. Granted, my eyes are 40+.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 12:49:50 GMT -8
A growing bulge of weekly options at $120 -- over 42,000 calls. Are we already pinning?
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Feb 5, 2015 13:00:38 GMT -8
How many watches are you predicting they'll sell in the first 12 months? That's not my department. I just think that whatever the amount sold the general sentiment (not only by Business Insider types) will be that this particular product was a flop on the initial rollout. Wisely, Apple nipped this at the bud. We won't know how many watches are sold. The FUD will be even fuddier because there won't be any hard numbers to mock. Otoh, if the numbers are great, Tim can always let em slip.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 13:03:33 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 5, 2015 13:05:34 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 13:15:48 GMT -8
I'd say short Amazon, but I've been run over before by the Bezos/Blodgett Steamroller.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 5, 2015 13:20:35 GMT -8
2) More importantly - and I haven't seen anyone else say this - initially, at least, the watch will be the first Apple product in recent memory that will not be seen as cool. The opposite, in fact. It's going to be like: "You own an iPhone and Macbook Air and iPad and and iMac and Apple TV? That's cool. Wait, you own the Apple Watch, too? You're a ridiculous fanboy (even if the person has never heard the word "fanboy") who has more money than you know what to do with." It's not going to be cool to wear an Apple Watch (initially, at least), it's going to be lame and embarrassing, like no matter what Apple puts their logo on, you'll blindly buy it. Strongly disagree with this. The entire premise is a generalization and baseless. Only in Samsung ads, can you paint an entire user population with the same negative stereotype. To try and use this generalization on what will amount to millions of people making purchase decisions is flat out preposterous. Eggzactly. Buying something because it's "cool" sounds like a pejorative that Apple critics would use, i.e., hipsters, Apple is all about marketing, etc. Of course, this is false, as no amount of perceived hipness or marketing can make people want to stay with a product or ecosystem (and we know Apple spends magnitudes less in marketing that Samsung). People want Apple products because they enrich their lives, as Tim says. Sure, there's my 17-yr-old niece wanting what her friends want. But the real phenomenon with a first-time Apple product user is how they suddenly can't live without them after they purchase them. I have a friend who's a longtime Mac guy, but he'd used a Blackberry religiously, and he's a pretty inflexible guy who doesn't change easily. His mantra is, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." He's bought the same exact socks from Foot Locker that he wears every day for like 30 years. He didn't really get the iPhone craze, but I told him, "it's one of those things you didn't know you wanted or needed, but once you have one, you won't know how you lived without it." And he later told me, "yep, you were right, I don't know how I lived without an iPhone, but only realized that once I had it." So, there is no way anyone here (myself included) can possibly know how the Watch will be received, since we haven't actually used one yet. However, I do think that Tim and Jony & Co. have (until proven otherwise) earned the deference of us having the faith in them that they would not release something - after all of this, long, agonizing wait for new product categories - that didn't meet the Apple Life Enrichment Standard™. As Tim admonished, I won't be betting against Apple. And to a new ATCH on Ex-Dividend day!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 5, 2015 13:26:43 GMT -8
ATCH! Sounds like an expression of irritation, or a sudden itch. Cheers to the longs.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 5, 2015 13:29:04 GMT -8
Btw, we can't seem to have broad agreement than a $349 Apple Watch, esp. given inflation from 2001, isn't HANDS DOWN a higher-value, higher-function product than iPod was - arguably ever, unless you REALLY miss watching videos on that tiny screen? Don't tell me it's the forced tethering to iPhone that turns it into embarrassment territory.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 5, 2015 13:33:07 GMT -8
A growing bulge of weekly options at $120 -- over 42,000 calls. Are we already pinning? Some techies using $120 to short for a pivot down while others saying near term potential bearishness has been invalidated and the breakout is coming...I guess we'll have to wait and see until OPEX is over.
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