Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 5, 2015 13:36:51 GMT -8
A growing bulge of weekly options at $120 -- over 42,000 calls. Are we already pinning? Some techies using $120 to short for a pivot down while others saying near term potential bearishness has been invalidated and the breakout is coming...I guess we'll have to wait and see until OPEX is over. If I had to guess - I don't have to, I just LIKE to - I'd say this is much more bullish than bearish. Weekly call bettors get hosed, then AAPL temporarily freed Mon-Wed-ish, unless there's some news or event or whatever. If AAPL closes 120+ tomorrow that'd be interesting. Or is it 119.57+? I forget.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 5, 2015 13:45:42 GMT -8
Yeah, well what really ATCH's my ass is that AAPL had less gains than the NASDAQ index on a really green day, and OBTW, GOOG is up $5 on news that Apple might torpedo its business model. But I don't want to be a whiny biatch that thinks this is a support group for my anxieties, so I'll just blame OpEx, and call a new all-time closing high on ex-dividend day, -ish.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 13:49:22 GMT -8
I'd say short Amazon, but I've been run over before by the Bezos/Blodgett Steamroller. AMZN is up $9 today, so burning cash from Bezo's FireFolly phone must be good, right? Yes, AMZN is getting very very tempting to short again.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 13:51:11 GMT -8
Holy shit JD, that is one heck of a GIF. Let call it prophecy that the Bulls run wild.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 13:52:05 GMT -8
Yeah, well what really ATCH's my ass is that AAPL had less gains than the NASDAQ index on a really green day, and OBTW, GOOG is up $5 on news that Apple might torpedo its business model. But I don't want to be a whiny biatch that thinks this is a support group for my anxieties, so I'll just blame OpEx, and call a new all-time closing high on ex-dividend day, -ish.Geez, the rampaging bull is PISSED. He must have bet on the Seahawks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 5, 2015 13:52:24 GMT -8
That bull's going places EDIT: Right, when he saw Seahawks didn't go Beast Mode on 2nd and goal at the 1 Mercel ?
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 13:56:11 GMT -8
Yes, AMZN is getting very very tempting to short again. Every time I've try I leave with less money than I came...
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Post by chasmac on Feb 5, 2015 14:01:37 GMT -8
Strongly disagree with this. The entire premise is a generalization and baseless. Only in Samsung ads, can you paint an entire user population with the same negative stereotype. To try and use this generalization on what will amount to millions of people making purchase decisions is flat out preposterous. Had a shock yesterday. My technologically challenged wife has a birthday coming up. The ONLY thing she wants is the Apple Watch. The reason is health related, and the tracking it will do. Calling her and those like her a ridiculous fanboy is a job that should be reserved for idiots like Blodgett. It's a prediction as to what I think the reaction, as a whole, will be upon the initial rollout of this product. I don't believe everyone will think it's uncool any more than than I believe everyone prefers a large screen phone. Some people thought Google Glass was cool; consumers, as a whole, thought differently. Happy birthday to your wife. Google glass created a problem that wasn't there (moving about in a 3D environment when 2D is just fine and is actually easier to use). Additionally it was embedded in an interface that no one wanted to use (having to wear glasses). The watch will solve lots of current problems (I mentioned just a few as did Rezonate so very well). As far as apps go, when iPhone launched, all we had were a handful of native apps and some crappy web-based stuff. Now we have a bazillion with so much stuff that no one even thought of. Very short sighted to think otherwise. If I had the resources of an analyst firm, I'd be surveying every developer and asking if they're working on a watch app. I could be wrong but I was right about all of the other iProducts. I remember seeing patents related to the iPhone before Steve even introduced it and told friends to buy AAPL because they were going to come out with something different (I wasn't sure what it was exactly!). My wife can't wait to buy one and has put off buying any other watches since she heard about it. Cool is hard to grasp but a lot of it has to do with functionality, design, ease of use and sometimes scarcity of product. We finally have the technology to support it across a variety of activities and ancillary devices.
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 14:19:24 GMT -8
It's a prediction as to what I think the reaction, as a whole, will be upon the initial rollout of this product. I don't believe everyone will think it's uncool any more than than I believe everyone prefers a large screen phone. Some people thought Google Glass was cool; consumers, as a whole, thought differently. Happy birthday to your wife. Google glass created a problem that wasn't there (moving about in a 3D environment when 2D is just fine and is actually easier to use). Additionally it was embedded in an interface that no one wanted to use (having to wear glasses). The watch will solve lots of current problems (I mentioned just a few as did Rezonate so very well). As far as apps go, when iPhone launched, all we had were a handful of native apps and some crappy web-based stuff. Now we have a bazillion with so much stuff that no one even thought of. Very short sighted to think otherwise. If I had the resources of an analyst firm, I'd be surveying every developer and asking if they're working on a watch app. I could be wrong but I was right about all of the other iProducts. I remember seeing patents related to the iPhone before Steve even introduced it and told friends to buy AAPL because they were going to come out with something different (I wasn't sure what it was exactly!). My wife can't wait to buy one and has put off buying any other watches since she heard about it. Cool is hard to grasp but a lot of it has to do with functionality, design, ease of use and sometimes scarcity of product. We finally have the technology to support it across a variety of activities and ancillary devices. Yes, but most of those uses won't be ready-to-go in 2015, which is what I'm seeking to address. If Apple releases a cool-looking watch with compelling use cases or compelling 3rd party apps that make sense for that form factor, I'm all about it. Right now, that's not (as far as we know today) what they're releasing. And the fact that they're pushing things as non-compelling as "you draw it, they'll see it" and "you can hear the other person's heartbeat" should tell you that that's the case. I'm not saying the Apple Watch has no future, I'm saying it has very little present and that may affect the stock in 2015. OTOH, maybe if they just marketed it to board members' wives ...
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Post by tuffett on Feb 5, 2015 14:31:09 GMT -8
Cool-looking is completely subjective. I know tons of people who like the look - only complaint is it seems a little thick. I've heard nothing but praise and admiration about the bands.
You were right about the big screens, and may be right about the success of Apple Watch, but your reasons just don't make sense right now.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 5, 2015 14:36:00 GMT -8
$119.94 All Time Highest Close! AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!
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Post by rob_london on Feb 5, 2015 14:39:28 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2015 15:01:09 GMT -8
Cool-looking is completely subjective. I know tons of people who like the look - only complaint is it seems a little thick. I've heard nothing but praise and admiration about the bands. You were right about the big screens, and may be right about the success of Apple Watch, but your reasons just don't make sense right now. Agreed. If the Watch fails or is a poor seller, it will be because of its functionality and/or lack of sufficient value. It will not fail because of mass labelling of the purchasers as Apple fanboys or being under the control of the evil corporate overlord that is Apple. That whole theme makes no sense.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 15:03:05 GMT -8
FWIW: My product prognostications (pass/fail) are pretty damn good, in all humbleness. Anyone who thought Google Glass had a snowball's chance in hell should be banished forever in making predictions. This was so obvious even Red saw it coming. (I kid, Red).
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 15:45:35 GMT -8
Cool-looking is completely subjective. I know tons of people who like the look - only complaint is it seems a little thick. I've heard nothing but praise and admiration about the bands. You were right about the big screens, and may be right about the success of Apple Watch, but your reasons just don't make sense right now. Agreed. If the Watch fails or is a poor seller, it will be because of its functionality and/or lack of sufficient value. It will not fail because of mass labelling of the purchasers as Apple fanboys or being under the control of the evil corporate overlord that is Apple. That whole theme makes no sense. I like the bands, too. Yes, it's subjective but I'm very good at calling this stuff, not just my one prediction here. I could list the things like this that I've called correctly (including the beginning of the fall of RIM to the day) but you won't believe me and no one cares anyhow. Moreover, as I wrote initially, I don't have the certainty about this I've had with most of my other calls in the first place. I knew I wasn't wrong about screen size and various other things, I don't know that I'm not wrong here. (If you want a jeff8687 call with certainty, buy and hold FB for a while). That said, the thing that I don't think you are getting (whether I'm right or wrong) is that it's all tied together. The lack of (current) functionality and value is part of what makes it lame to buy it, just b/c it's Apple (in addition to the look, subjectively, not being up to Apple's standards). If the functionality was greater, the value would make sense and buying it wouldn't be fanboy-ish behavior, just like buying other Apple products doesn't make you fanboy-ish. Here you're spending $350 for something that doesn't look that great and doesn't have - now - impressive functionality / utility.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2015 16:15:03 GMT -8
Agreed. If the Watch fails or is a poor seller, it will be because of its functionality and/or lack of sufficient value. It will not fail because of mass labelling of the purchasers as Apple fanboys or being under the control of the evil corporate overlord that is Apple. That whole theme makes no sense. I like the bands, too. Yes, it's subjective but I'm very good at calling this stuff, not just my one prediction here. I could list the things like this that I've called correctly (including the beginning of the fall of RIM to the day) but you won't believe me and no one cares anyhow. Moreover, as I wrote initially, I don't have the certainty about this I've had with most of my other calls in the first place. I knew I wasn't wrong about screen size and various other things, I don't know that I'm not wrong here. (If you want a jeff8687 call with certainty, buy and hold FB for a while). That said, the thing that I don't think you are getting (whether I'm right or wrong) is that it's all tied together. The lack of (current) functionality and value is part of what makes it lame to buy it, just b/c it's Apple (in addition to the look, subjectively, not being up to Apple's standards). If the functionality was greater, the value would make sense and buying it wouldn't be fanboy-ish behavior, just like buying other Apple products doesn't make you fanboy-ish. Here's you're spending $350 for something that doesn't look that great and doesn't have - now - impressive functionality / utility. Ahh. I get it now. We are in the presence of soothsaying greatness. My bad for not getting that the first time. I will return to congratulate you in the summer or fall of 2015, once it is obvious that the Apple Watch has failed, due to the masses not wishing to be labeled as dumb asses for buying a quasi useless product.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 5, 2015 16:55:34 GMT -8
Regarding functionality:
- We have no idea what apps are in development and may be ready at launch or imminently after
- There is plenty of functionality that we already know about that makes Apple Watch a compelling purchase, when you consider how many expensive watches are bought for the sole functional purpose of telling time.
Things that I specifically find functional and worthy of a $350 purchase include basic health tracking, Apple Pay, navigation guidance, and having the latest AAPL quote on my wrist, visible during the many times of the day where I'm unable to take out my iPhone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 17:16:51 GMT -8
Regarding functionality: - We have no idea what apps are in development and may be ready at launch or imminently after - There is plenty of functionality that we already know about that makes Apple Watch a compelling purchase, when you consider how many expensive watches are bought for the sole functional purpose of telling time. Things that I specifically find functional and worthy of a $350 purchase include basic health tracking, Apple Pay, navigation guidance, and having the latest AAPL quote on my wrist, visible during the many times of the day where I'm unable to take out my iPhone. Yes. Not to mention that it will also keep ACCURATE TIME with customizable faces, which not even a $6,000 Bremont mechanical can do. Of course, I hope I'll be able to send my heartbeat to Shu Qi when I'm thinking about her, which is often...
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Feb 5, 2015 17:28:55 GMT -8
Ahh. I get it now. We are in the presence of soothsaying greatness. My bad for not getting that the first time. I will return to congratulate you in the summer or fall of 2015, once it is obvious that the Apple Watch has failed, due to the masses not wishing to be labeled as dumb asses for buying a quasi useless product. I don't think we will know if the watch is a failure, a success, or just mediocre by fall 2015. It will take 18 to 24 months to make that determination. Always keep in mind the slow ramp of the iPad (and even the iPhone to some extent). Also keep in mind that the Apple Watch is only an accessory and thus the addressable market is much smaller (400+ million) than the addressable market for something like the iPhone (3+ billion).
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 5, 2015 17:46:00 GMT -8
Ahh. I get it now. We are in the presence of soothsaying greatness. My bad for not getting that the first time. I will return to congratulate you in the summer or fall of 2015, once it is obvious that the Apple Watch has failed, due to the masses not wishing to be labeled as dumb asses for buying a quasi useless product. It's so nice to know I don't have to carry the entire snark load myself here, because it really can be a daunting responsibility. It's been a rough week, with the dog having surgery and all. It's a relief that other members can pick up the slack in a pinch.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 5, 2015 17:47:41 GMT -8
Holy shit JD, that is one heck of a GIF. Let call it prophecy that the Bulls run wild. That's what me visiting the Fast Money set might look like.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2015 17:50:30 GMT -8
Ahh. I get it now. We are in the presence of soothsaying greatness. My bad for not getting that the first time. I will return to congratulate you in the summer or fall of 2015, once it is obvious that the Apple Watch has failed, due to the masses not wishing to be labeled as dumb asses for buying a quasi useless product. It's so nice to know I don't have to carry the entire snark load myself here, because it really can be a daunting responsibility. It's been a rough week, with the dog having surgery and all. It's a relief that other members can pick up the slack in a pinch. Whadaya mean snark?!? I am in genuine awe.
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Post by osx10 on Feb 5, 2015 19:00:11 GMT -8
JD said... That's what me visiting the Fast Money set would look like
They had a guest on Fast Money recently (who said buy AAPL by the way) that got on the show for making a $40k contribution to some charity. If they do it again, we need a Kickstarter campaign to raise the money for AFB to send JD to be on the show!
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 5, 2015 19:16:27 GMT -8
JD said... That's what me visiting the Fast Money set would look like They had a guest on Fast Money recently (who said buy AAPL by the way) that got on the show for making a $40k contribution to some charity. If they do it again, we need a Kickstarter campaign to raise the money for AFB to send JD to be on the show! Well in that case, be sure to raise enough money for a couple of my boys to go along, and some money for proper equipment for the visit to CNBC:
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 5, 2015 21:18:10 GMT -8
FWIW: My product prognostications (pass/fail) are pretty damn good, in all humbleness. Anyone who thought Google Glass had a snowball's chance in hell should be banished forever in making predictions. This was so obvious even Red saw it coming. (I kid, Red). I dont't know....I kind of like Google glass....
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Post by chasmac on Feb 5, 2015 21:25:45 GMT -8
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