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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 12, 2015 12:09:30 GMT -8
Exxon is the second highest market capitalized company at 388 billion, not Microsoft. MarketWatch needs a proofreader *and* a fact-checker.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Feb 12, 2015 12:33:46 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 12, 2015 12:45:56 GMT -8
That's not even three percent of a percent of the funds' value. Dalio is doing fine. Since, according to the story, the man's a billionaire, I'm sure Dalio is doing fine. Perhaps even Dalio's investors are doing fine. My point, admittedly not well-stated, is that these funds or individuals who have cut or are cutting their investments in AAPL would possibly be better served by holding on to the AAPL shares they already have and buying many more shares. If I were a Bridgewater Associates investor, I would question why the fund decided to trim their already tiny investment in the stock that most on the board feel is just getting started with all the good things we expect to happen in 2015. This is an excerpt from a column dated 09/30/14: www.valuewalk.com/2014/09/bridgewater-associates-letters-2/===================== Bridgewater’s 2Q and YTD returns Bridgewater reported a 7.4 percent return in the second quarter and a 12.4 percent return year to date. Contrast this with the Dow Jones Industrial total return index, which is up near 5 percent year to date. The fund delivered such out-performance in a market environment of “above-trend alpha in what have been unusually quiet market conditions.” The fund, with nearly $160 billion in assets under management, found its best returns came from bond and equity positions, followed by currencies and commodities. In its confidential letter to investors, the highly secretive hedge fund provided an alternative economics lesson that should be mandatory reading in economics classes. The letter notes how a market price is really the “discounted present value of future cash flows” and then notes that future returns have been assumed into today’s market prices to a significant degree. Economic growth and inflation are the two most significant drivers of those cash flows, the letter says, and pointing to the relationship between bond yields and equity market risk the report notes “discount rates and risk premiums determine how these cash flows are reflected in current prices.” Unfortunately for many broad-based indices, the future looks played out.=====================
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2015 13:02:23 GMT -8
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Feb 12, 2015 13:07:05 GMT -8
sorry, forgot to put the M after that 45,704 ...
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 12, 2015 13:07:34 GMT -8
Just saw this story and felt so terrible about it. Ray Dalio's Bridgewater losing out on $4.3* million since cutting Apple stakewww.marketwatch.com/story/ray-dalios-bridgewater-losing-out-on-43-million-since-cutting-apple-stake-2015-02-12?siteid=yhoof2NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Billionaire Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, which manages about $157 billion in global investments, has so far this year lost out on about $4.6* million by selling half its Apple Inc. shares AAPL, +1.20% during the fourth quarter of 2014. Bridgewater said in regulatory filing that it held 259,497 shares of Apple as of Dec. 31, down from 535,897 shares on Sept. 30. While the fund is up $4.3 million on Apple's stock, which is up 15% year to date, it would have been up $8.9 million had it not sold the shares. Meanwhile, Bridgewater boosted its holding in Microsoft MSFT, +1.00% to 601,045 shares during the fourth quarter from 14,645 shares. With the stock down 8.1% year to date, Bridgewater is losing $2.2 million more than it would have by holding fast. Apple is the biggest U.S. company with a market-capitalization of $736.4 billion, while Microsoft is a distant second at $350.1 billion. At least Dalio has 250K shares. The guys I really feel bad for are those like Apple perma-bear Don Laskin, who for years has been poo-poo-ing Apple. He now says he's "tired of calling a top" on the cult that is Apple. I wonder if his investors have tired of missing out on AAPL Alpha™ all these years? And now we get the rest of the story: Top hedge fund dumps Apple, buys Microsoftmoney.cnn.com/2015/02/12/investing/apple-microsoft-stocks-bridgewater/index.html?source=yahoo_quoteThe world's largest hedge fund picked a bad time to fall out of love with Apple. Bridgewater Associates cut its stake in the iPhone maker in half at the end of 2014, according to regulatory filings revealed this week. So far, that doesn't look like a wise move. Apple (AAPL, Tech30) has had a red-hot start to 2015 with shares soaring 15% so far this year. In fact, Apple is doing so well that it just became the first U.S. company ever to achieve a valuation north of $700 billion. Don't feel too bad for Bridgewater though. It's the biggest hedge fund in the world, according to Institutional Investor and is run by billionaire Ray Dalio. The fund still owns 259,497 shares of Apple. With the stock trading at about $126 a piece, that stake is worth a hefty $33 million. There's debate now about just how high Apple stock can go. Another prominent hedge fund manger, Carl Icahn, said he thinks it will shoot over $200 a share. But Bridgewater was clearly ready to cash in on some of its Apple winnings and move on. The fund bought Microsoft (MSFT, Tech30) instead. Bridgewater owned about $28 million worth of Microsoft shares at the end of last year, up dramatically from less than $700,000 at the end of the third quarter.
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Post by macwire on Feb 12, 2015 13:10:31 GMT -8
DRINKING TIME WOO
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2015 13:58:46 GMT -8
artman - you need to print the closing prices even larger - they're still too small Dalio news was out this morning - Carl Quintanilla was talking about it with Henry Blodget who went on and on about once iPhone 6 is done it will be a problem for AAPL to grow. Quintanilla asked him if he was an AAPL shareholder. His response: Yes So the person I really feel sorry for while we are handing out the "I FEEL SO SORRY FOR THIS PERSON AWARD" is Henry Blodget. Why? Because not only is he stupid at times but he is FUGLY
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 12, 2015 14:02:31 GMT -8
That's not even three percent of a percent of the funds' value. Dalio is doing fine. Since, according to the story, the man's a billionaire, I'm sure Dalio is doing fine. Perhaps even Dalio's investors are doing fine. My point, admittedly not well-stated, is that these funds or individuals who have cut or are cutting their investments in AAPL would possibly be better served by holding on to the AAPL shares they already have and buying many more shares. If I were a Bridgewater Associates investor, I would question why the fund decided to trim their already tiny investment in the stock that most on the board feel is just getting started with all the good things we expect to happen in 2015. I'm not looking to argue here—we're both on the same side. But Bridgewater is a quant fund. Dalio (or more probably his algorithms) is most likely just lowering/raising his exposure due to some fundamental measure of value and not looking at *future* expectations, as we are. The reason one buys into All-weather is because it's strictly rule-based, no human emotions involved. It would go against the prospectus of the fund to look at AAPL and say, those algos botched it, let's up our exposure there. They have to change their algorithms to change their Apple exposure, but in the bigger picture, their algorithms are doing fine. Bridgewater lost out on gaining 1/37000 of the value of the fund by selling out of a portion of aapl too soon, which is hardly a blip on the radar—less than 3 thousandths of a percent. If I were doing stats on a test that produced those numbers and I called that significant I'd be laughed out of the room, whether in academia or business. I've had to explain that percentages tens of thousands of times larger were insignificant relative to the tests I run. There is nothing significant about this story—Marketwatch should be ashamed. BW is probably still trimming AAPL as we speak, fraction by fraction, as its price reaches closer to some algorithmically-estimated fundamental value. If I were holding the All-weather fund, it wouldn't bother me. I hold Apple for certain reasons, and All-Weather investors hold it for different reasons, and we both have been well-compensated for our choices, even if they pay two-and-twenty for theirs. Anyway: All time high, whoo-hoo!
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 12, 2015 15:07:11 GMT -8
Since, according to the story, the man's a billionaire, I'm sure Dalio is doing fine. Perhaps even Dalio's investors are doing fine. My point, admittedly not well-stated, is that these funds or individuals who have cut or are cutting their investments in AAPL would possibly be better served by holding on to the AAPL shares they already have and buying many more shares. If I were a Bridgewater Associates investor, I would question why the fund decided to trim their already tiny investment in the stock that most on the board feel is just getting started with all the good things we expect to happen in 2015. I'm not looking to argue here Great! Neither am I. —we're both on the same side. Well, the important thing is that neither of us wants to argue. The majority of arguments on this board are between people who are mostly "on the same side". What you did though, is explain your reasoning in more detail and I appreciate that. Hope it catches on. I know very little about algorithms or all weather funds for that matter. But I know more about all weather funds now that you mentioned them and I read a little about them. Anyway: All time high, whoo-hoo! I couldn't have said it any better!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2015 18:42:53 GMT -8
Any fund that sells AAPL to buy more MSFT needs a new algo. #JustSayin'
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Post by mace on Feb 12, 2015 18:47:49 GMT -8
Odd-Lot Richard, You miss the point LuckyChoices is making. Is fun to make fun of hedge fund manager .
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 12, 2015 18:51:14 GMT -8
In absolute terms there may have been better moves. Such as none at all. But yeah, rounding error I guess
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2015 19:04:51 GMT -8
Keep in mind most hedge fund managers become billionaires by charging enormous fees for their genius. Fees average about 20% of annual profits! But they can be even higher. So yeah, not cutting the hedgies any slack. They are highly-paid charlatans.
Turn the machines back on, I'm bored.
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