Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 12, 2015 3:28:56 GMT -8
Good morning everyone: The check is in the mail and people are itching to spend it. Fortunately, Apple owners know a bargain when they see it and if premarket activity is an indication are buying AAPL in droves. AAPL is GREEN, trading at 126.20 +1.32 (1.06%) as of 6:18. Major indices are all nicely GREEN as well. Should be an awesome day. Is today the day someone presses the button? In the news: Reuter's reports Apple's inability to monitor standards lets Pegatron pay low wages, NGO says. Of course, BI is echoing this... WSJ [$] Overheard: Making Time With Apple and Slow Start for Google’s Smartwatches. Sounds like a nice setup to me. Engadget notes Starbucks app lets you reload your card with Apple Pay. Slowly, Pay extends its reach, taking root. Bloomberg has an interesting article Investors Increase Hedging of Their Apple Investments. Must admit, my options plays have gotten a bit more conservative... of course, you wouldn't know that from all of the naked calls I'm holding. I will convert them into spreads... someday... Let's end on a high note, Cramer: Why Tim Cook is Babe Ruth via CNBC. Enough said. Have a great day. Let's make money. *** Oh, for Mercel in Shu Qi's voice, "Why, good morning Merckel. The stock of your favorite fruit company is up today. Also, you were amazing last night*...." * Can't vouch for this.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 12, 2015 4:06:31 GMT -8
Horace Dediu at Asymco on The S&P 499. So much for 'efficient market theory'.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 12, 2015 4:48:00 GMT -8
As much as we find it frustrating listening to talking heads who don't get it, it warms my heart to hear Analysts speak of their misguided assumptions as fact. From CNBC Cisco beats, Apple undervalued?. There is upside.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2015 5:19:37 GMT -8
Just wanted to respond to "edtech" from his Uncle Carl question from yesterday (as to when does Carl start lightening up and then what?) If AAPL keeps innovating (which they will) and bring products that capture one's imagination and wallet (which they will) - Carl's valuation reserves the right to change. None of what AAPL is bringing in 2015 - given that expectations are so low for their debut and perhaps that we don't know about some of the others (don't forget the comment "Best line up of products in 25 years) plus their accumulation of cash / buy backs/ div. increases - plus Pay - plus external factors like a potential reform in the US on Corporate taxes ....and probably a dozen other things that haven't immediately come to mind - are NOT built into the stock...nor is it built into iCahn's current valuation of $216. So the long response IMHO to your answer is that there is no answer because it will be valued much higher as things progress and Uncle Carl hates leaving money on the table. He doesn't "need" to sell anything for quite a long while. I will throw one more thing in - if iCahn thinks markets are frothy - which he has since the beginning of the year - he may sell other stocks but remember AAPL tends to behave better than the overall market on the downside. Uncle Carl is an investor not a trader. I think he is enjoying the ride and for the near term and foreseeable future will stay put. Those are my thoughts but others can feel free to chime in.
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Post by macwire on Feb 12, 2015 5:21:45 GMT -8
I had way too much scotch
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2015 5:46:54 GMT -8
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Post by aapl2000 on Feb 12, 2015 6:10:28 GMT -8
To edtech's non-concern when AAPL hits 203 and is no longer undervalued, Apple would logically stop doing buybacks. Apple currently earns $46 billion a year, and is spending 10 B yearly on dividends.
One scenario with AAPL fully valued at 203, the dividend would have to be increased 4 fold to use up the yearly 40+ B in profits. I think Uncle Carl would stick around with this scenario.
Do remember, Apple's yearly profits of 46 B needs to be returned either as buyback or dividends. Else, Uncle Carl will get mad with Timmy for hoarding all our profits.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 12, 2015 6:55:14 GMT -8
As of now, I'm glad I didn't listen to my AAPL negative side; instead, I doubled down on AAPL to the point where I don't have any trough from which to BTFD next time. This time around, I'm sure to sell at the peak ... right?
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Post by rezonate on Feb 12, 2015 7:03:45 GMT -8
I had way too much scotch I went with Elijah Craig, aged 12 years. Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, gotta prep for juleps. Feel better.
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Post by macwire on Feb 12, 2015 7:04:33 GMT -8
I had way too much scotch I went with Elijah Craig, aged 12 years. Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, gotta prep for juleps. Feel better. Went Mac12. Probable revisit tonight.
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Post by rickag on Feb 12, 2015 7:05:18 GMT -8
One of my favorite movies is "Runaway Train".
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2015 7:07:17 GMT -8
CNBC scraping the bottom again with an investment advisor trying to quell Apple optimism. Laughable "thesis" and not worth mentioning except that once again, CNBC has failed its viewers by 1. not curating its guests and 2. not holding the jackasses accountable for being wrong with past "opinions." CNBC producers must really like to flush the toilet.
And no, I don't watch this hot mess of a show (live broadcast) -- I will dial up on occasion CNBC's website and like any train wreck, I occasionally rubber-neck the link bait.
Back to a lovely day -so far- in the Apple orchard!
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 12, 2015 7:10:38 GMT -8
On the one hand, I love the price action that comes on Dividend day. On the other, it is frustrating trying to catch a train leaving the station...
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Post by macwire on Feb 12, 2015 7:36:11 GMT -8
Hourly charts are stretched.
Not a reason to sell but something to put away somewhere for my short/micro time frame traders
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Post by tuffett on Feb 12, 2015 7:49:55 GMT -8
Damn. Had some covered calls I thought would be safe but had to take a signnificant loss on them. Oh well, stock and other options more than make up for it.
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Post by chasmac on Feb 12, 2015 7:50:29 GMT -8
What I'm using for short term swing trades. $133 top?
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Post by macwire on Feb 12, 2015 8:43:44 GMT -8
Gap filled from opening gap. You could see a rash of stops get triggered on the micro charts.
Dunno where we close but a topping candle is forming on the daily chart.
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Post by edtech on Feb 12, 2015 8:48:17 GMT -8
For those of you who have not come across this yet, Robert Leitao (founder of the Braeburn Group) has restarted his blog, the iPad Chronicles (separate from his Posts at Eventide which focusing solely on AAPL stock valuation) and has some more in depth analysis and opinions on what makes Apple unique and great. See his latest two posts - his arguments are well thought out and articulated and should be recommended for any student of AAPL whether or not you like or appreciate what he is doing/has done at Braeburn. www.theipadchronicles.com/2015/02/the-apple-watch-as-ultimate-skeuomorph.htmlwww.theipadchronicles.com/2015/02/briefly-why-im-bullish-on-apple.htmlDisclosure: I am a member of Braeburn and did reply to his original skeuomorph post in Braeburn and he decided to quote my response on his iPad Chronicles site. I have also been a lurker at AFB/AFB2 a lot longer than I have been a member of Braeburn. I find both sites informative and worthwhile of my time and efforts. Thanks for a great community here, everyone. EdTech.
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Post by mace on Feb 12, 2015 8:57:59 GMT -8
Gap filled from opening gap. You could see a rash of stops get triggered on the micro charts. Dunno where we close but a topping candle is forming on the daily chart. The behavior from gap up till now is similar to last year Oct's gap up. After the bearish topping candle, price continues to go up for another $2 (peak to peak) before dropping $15 over a month. $2 from here is $130, $15 down is $115. Edit: Similarity may or may not continue.
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Post by macwire on Feb 12, 2015 8:59:07 GMT -8
Gap filled from opening gap. You could see a rash of stops get triggered on the micro charts. Dunno where we close but a topping candle is forming on the daily chart. The behavior from gap up till now is similar to last year Oct's gap up. After the bearish topping candle, price continues to go up for another $2 (peak to peak) before dropping $15 over a month. $2 from here is $130, $15 down is $115. I have been gardening all day. With all things need confirmation obviously.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2015 9:02:14 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
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Post by Mav on Feb 12, 2015 9:50:59 GMT -8
What I'm using for short term swing trades. $133 top? Wait, you chart? Nice channel btw
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2015 9:51:51 GMT -8
MY WAG: we have seen the high of the day, week, month.
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Post by macwire on Feb 12, 2015 10:10:02 GMT -8
MY WAG: we have seen the high of the day, week, month. I think we will run another 3-5-7 handles from today's high in next few weeks. I believe we are breaking out into a new trend on major indexes and aapl will be along for the ride. 2100spx is imminent.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 12, 2015 10:18:15 GMT -8
Just saw this story and felt so terrible about it. Ray Dalio's Bridgewater losing out on $4.3* million since cutting Apple stakewww.marketwatch.com/story/ray-dalios-bridgewater-losing-out-on-43-million-since-cutting-apple-stake-2015-02-12?siteid=yhoof2NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Billionaire Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, which manages about $157 billion in global investments, has so far this year lost out on about $4.6* million by selling half its Apple Inc. shares AAPL, +1.20% during the fourth quarter of 2014. Bridgewater said in regulatory filing that it held 259,497 shares of Apple as of Dec. 31, down from 535,897 shares on Sept. 30. While the fund is up $4.3 million on Apple's stock, which is up 15% year to date, it would have been up $8.9 million had it not sold the shares. Meanwhile, Bridgewater boosted its holding in Microsoft MSFT, +1.00% to 601,045 shares during the fourth quarter from 14,645 shares. With the stock down 8.1% year to date, Bridgewater is losing $2.2 million more than it would have by holding fast. Apple is the biggest U.S. company with a market-capitalization of $736.4 billion, while Microsoft is a distant second at $350.1 billion. (* Don't know if it's 4.3 million or 4.6 million. In any case, it sucks for Bridgewater Associates investors)
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2015 10:56:16 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2015 11:07:42 GMT -8
Just saw this story and felt so terrible about it. Ray Dalio's Bridgewater losing out on $4.3* million since cutting Apple stakewww.marketwatch.com/story/ray-dalios-bridgewater-losing-out-on-43-million-since-cutting-apple-stake-2015-02-12?siteid=yhoof2NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Billionaire Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, which manages about $157 billion in global investments, has so far this year lost out on about $4.6* million by selling half its Apple Inc. shares AAPL, +1.20% during the fourth quarter of 2014. Bridgewater said in regulatory filing that it held 259,497 shares of Apple as of Dec. 31, down from 535,897 shares on Sept. 30. While the fund is up $4.3 million on Apple's stock, which is up 15% year to date, it would have been up $8.9 million had it not sold the shares. Meanwhile, Bridgewater boosted its holding in Microsoft MSFT, +1.00% to 601,045 shares during the fourth quarter from 14,645 shares. With the stock down 8.1% year to date, Bridgewater is losing $2.2 million more than it would have by holding fast. Apple is the biggest U.S. company with a market-capitalization of $736.4 billion, while Microsoft is a distant second at $350.1 billion. At least Dalio has 250K shares. The guys I really feel bad for are those like Apple perma-bear Don Laskin, who for years has been poo-poo-ing Apple. He now says he's "tired of calling a top" on the cult that is Apple. I wonder if his investors have tired of missing out on AAPL Alpha™ all these years?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 12, 2015 11:19:42 GMT -8
Just saw this story and felt so terrible about it. Ray Dalio's Bridgewater losing out on $4.3* million since cutting Apple stakewww.marketwatch.com/story/ray-dalios-bridgewater-losing-out-on-43-million-since-cutting-apple-stake-2015-02-12?siteid=yhoof2NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Billionaire Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, which manages about $157 billion in global investments, has so far this year lost out on about $4.6* million by selling half its Apple Inc. shares AAPL, +1.20% during the fourth quarter of 2014. Bridgewater said in regulatory filing that it held 259,497 shares of Apple as of Dec. 31, down from 535,897 shares on Sept. 30. While the fund is up $4.3 million on Apple's stock, which is up 15% year to date, it would have been up $8.9 million had it not sold the shares. Meanwhile, Bridgewater boosted its holding in Microsoft MSFT, +1.00% to 601,045 shares during the fourth quarter from 14,645 shares. With the stock down 8.1% year to date, Bridgewater is losing $2.2 million more than it would have by holding fast. Apple is the biggest U.S. company with a market-capitalization of $736.4 billion, while Microsoft is a distant second at $350.1 billion. (* Don't know if it's 4.3 million or 4.6 million. In any case, it sucks for Bridgewater Associates investors) UNLuckyChoices.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 12, 2015 11:46:37 GMT -8
That's not even three percent of a percent of the funds' value. Dalio is doing fine.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Feb 12, 2015 12:03:32 GMT -8
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