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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 8, 2015 5:28:16 GMT -8
In search of since84 ... thought he was back - yikes!
SocGen downgraded us from Buy to Hold due to currency headwinds (he has a $130 PT) Also, several out there giving fairly good reviews of the Apple Watch including the NYT and MarketWatch. Sorry for the sloppy opening here (no links) but trying to get the thread started before 9:30 and just realized it wasn't open.
Enjoy the day and the somewhat soft opening on the stock - down about .22 in PM
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 8, 2015 5:30:47 GMT -8
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Post by appleaddict on Apr 8, 2015 5:35:43 GMT -8
In search of since84 ... thought he was back - yikes! His post from last week said he would be out through today. "Administrative note: I will not be available to start the thread Monday though Wednesday of next week (April 6-8)" Thank you for starting up the threads again, Phoebear.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 8, 2015 6:41:48 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Apr 8, 2015 6:47:37 GMT -8
Gargh. Break out. Fail. Rinse. Repeat. I'll look again after earnings.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 8, 2015 7:56:51 GMT -8
Well...it certainly seems that BI and friends have leapt upon the release of Apple Watch as the tent pole on which to hang this quarter's pre-earnings FUD storm. No need for links, it's easy to find, if you are so inclined. Many of the complaints bring back memories of the comments by Blackberry executives upon the iPhone introduction.
This too shall pass.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 8, 2015 8:06:14 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Apr 8, 2015 9:15:41 GMT -8
I guess it is just human nature to find patterns in any data. As a dedicated cloud gazer since my childhood, I find the pull irresistible. Looking back at the past years data, it seems like there is a consistent pattern to Apple's price behavior. We climb for about 6-7 weeks, then decline for the next 6-7 weeks. Fortunately, the decline is not as large as the climb. It almost seems like investors cannot quite believe in Apple, so earnings come out, they suspend disbelief and buy until they reach their limits, then FUD and profit taking take their toll until the next earnings report. Or maybe something else entirely is doing this. If this pattern holds, we should be starting another 6 weeks up soon. Just an observation, but do others see this pattern in the price behavior?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 8, 2015 11:17:54 GMT -8
I guess it is just human nature to find patterns in any data. As a dedicated cloud gazer since my childhood, I find the pull irresistible. Looking back at the past years data, it seems like there is a consistent pattern to Apple's price behavior. We climb for about 6-7 weeks, then decline for the next 6-7 weeks. Fortunately, the decline is not as large as the climb. It almost seems like investors cannot quite believe in Apple, so earnings come out, they suspend disbelief and buy until they reach their limits, then FUD and profit taking take their toll until the next earnings report. Or maybe something else entirely is doing this. If this pattern holds, we should be starting another 6 weeks up soon. Just an observation, but do others see this pattern in the price behavior? Yes and in this period of consolidation the stock has help up better than in previous consolidations. So don't be too too surprised if we see a FUD-based washout dropping near 120 before we head up again... Perhaps, for example, after the watches get into people's hands April 24 and the spin machine finds all sorts of problems with it, but before blowout earnings on April 27...
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Post by mace on Apr 8, 2015 11:44:43 GMT -8
...So don't be too too surprised if we see a FUD-based washout dropping near 120 before we head up again... If my memory didn't fail me, according to Phoebear, her EWI buddies say could go as low as $116. However, I would be very surprised to see it breaking below 50-day EMA, currently at $123.41, from here to earnings (Apr 27).
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Post by nagrani on Apr 8, 2015 11:48:14 GMT -8
I'm bullish. The symmetrical triangle is just getting bigger
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Post by firestorm on Apr 8, 2015 12:58:06 GMT -8
There sure isn't much activity on this board compared to the olden days. The frustration that the stock isn't double what it is seems to have taken a toll.
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Post by mace on Apr 8, 2015 13:16:15 GMT -8
I'm bullish. The symmetrical triangle is just getting bigger Should stay within the triangle till earnings unless Apple makes some bullish noise about Watch or Android & Windoze camp manage to steal the narrative.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 8, 2015 13:27:14 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Apr 8, 2015 14:42:36 GMT -8
There sure isn't much activity on this board compared to the olden days. The frustration that the stock isn't double what it is seems to have taken a toll. On a down day with little news there just isn't much to say - or much motivation to post anything. I'm not frustrated that we aren't at 200. I don't mind the consolidation periods where the stock bumps around stupidly. We're only 6% off the ATH after all. Patience will be rewarded soon, methinks: WATCH, earnings, buyback, divvie, guidance, momentum all should be good to great. Oh, and there's nagrani's ever-growing symmetrical triangle that's pointing ^ . . .
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 8, 2015 16:32:33 GMT -8
So the triangle is the conversation on the EW thread as well. And I also said that there is always a debate going on. One side thinks there will be a bear raid and the other thinks we are headed to the 140's imminently. Sometimes you just have to let this stuff play out. Like Mace said...may just depend on whether Apple starts saying things about the watch or whatever. One other thing - it was brought up yesterday - those 146k call options expiring on 4/17 @ $125 aren't helping. And lastly, volumes in the overall market are light this week. Lots of kids are off from schools and folks have taken a small vacation. I think we'll see more action next week. Just my two cents.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Apr 8, 2015 16:36:14 GMT -8
Not much to say about AAPL, not much to post. I'm pretty chill.
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Post by chasmac on Apr 8, 2015 17:54:42 GMT -8
The Apple watch is like so complicated, OMG... Informative but slightly annoying. There's going to be so many of these types of reviews out there. Just like iPhone, it's different and does different things for each person. I've always been an early adopter and never regretted it. The iPod, iPhone and iPad all solved problems and were 100X better than was was out there before them. I expect the same from the watch. $121-145 is the channel. Not expecting much of a dip because of earnings/divy-buyback expectations.
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Post by nagrani on Apr 8, 2015 18:47:38 GMT -8
I find this lady to be annoying as shit. But it's probably just me
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Post by Lstream on Apr 8, 2015 19:29:55 GMT -8
I find this lady to be annoying as shit. But it's probably just me No it's not just you. Damn annoying.
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Post by flyonthewall on Apr 8, 2015 21:33:10 GMT -8
I really like GEOFFREY A. FOWLER's review from the WSJ on AAPL Watch as he wears it on his right wrist and smoothly goes through its many functions. Remember the concerns about left/right wrist usage when the AAPL Watch was first introduced? Apple Watch Review: The Smartwatch Finally Makes Sense
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 8, 2015 23:04:01 GMT -8
I really like GEOFFREY A. FOWLER's review from the WSJ on AAPL Watch as he wears it on his right wrist and smoothly goes through its many functions. Remember the concerns about left/right wrist usage when the AAPL Watch was first introduced? Apple Watch Review: The Smartwatch Finally Makes SenseBroken link, missing a colon, but yeah, great review.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Apr 9, 2015 12:32:33 GMT -8
I find this lady to be annoying as shit. But it's probably just me No it's not just you. Damn annoying. Honestly I found the MacBook review much more annoying. But yeah, to the extent people DON'T know Stern has 10+ pounds of helmet plus DSLR on during the day, it's not anywhere close to describing an actual day of real use. Harder to use your Watch when a DSLR is in the way. I bet the Watch battery life was affected a bit by retakes.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 9, 2015 12:54:29 GMT -8
O.k.....who is going to buy the watch within the next two weeks?
I will be buying one (steel) and maybe one other. I expect more family sales in the months ahead.
Rez is in for two. Mercel for one.
Others?
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Post by Lstream on Apr 9, 2015 13:01:55 GMT -8
O.k.....who is going to buy the watch within the next two weeks? I will be buying one (steel) and maybe one other. I expect more family sales in the months ahead. Rez is in for two. Mercel for one. Others? My wife seems determined to get one, so I think there will be at least one in the family. I was pretty sure I was buying one as well, but I am not sure if I am up for the tradeoff of managing the battery life of this device, vs the functionality it delivers out of the gate. Collectively, the reviews have cooled my interest off a fair bit. So I may wait to see the reaction of real people to this product before I decide.
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