Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Apr 20, 2015 2:29:16 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Apr 20, 2015 2:37:53 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by rezonate on Apr 20, 2015 3:29:59 GMT -8
I'd also recommend the weekend article about one million orgami lobsters. Enjoyable.
|
|
|
Post by redinaustin on Apr 20, 2015 3:45:02 GMT -8
As someone with an operations background I agree with that article 100%.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Apr 20, 2015 5:05:30 GMT -8
Apple's Watch Strategy Embraces the 80-20 Rule Hello everyone. Apple Watches are expected to arrive at a few customers' doors this coming Friday. The first batch of order statuses still say April 24 to May 8, so one would assume we will get a better view of how many people will be receiving one this week by Wednesday or Thursday. Jony Ive and Marc Newson will be speaking on Wednesday at the Condé Naste Luxury Conference in Italy about how the luxury world is being reshaped by technology. This should be interesting from what Jony and Newson have to say, in addition to hearing other industry leaders in fashion and luxury talk about Apple Watch. Last week, there was plenty of spillover from that Slice report on Apple Watch U.S. pre-order sales numbers. Taking a few insights from that report, and running with my long-standing theories, I published an article this past Friday afternoon about how I think the Apple Watch will be managed along the 80-20 rule. Leaving technicalities aside about the true meaning behind the 80-20 principle, in essence, I suspect that 20% of Apple Watch buyers will account for 80% of Apple Watch profits. What that means is that the vast majority of consumers will buy the Apple Watch Sport, and specifically the black and white bands, while the much smaller percentage of consumers buying the higher-priced Watch models will account for most of Apple's Watch profits. Using data from Slice and extrapolating across the other Watch launch countries, the black and white Apple Watch Sport models will likely account for nearly 70% of Apple Watch pre-orders. I've seen some journalists run with this figure and position it as a sign that the Watch is in trouble because many people are going for the less expensive version. That is faulty logic. In reality, the Watch category is more complicated, requiring a bit more analysis. One equation will help show what is going on: Profit from one $17,000 Apple Watch Edition = profit from 75 Apple Watch Sports. Since the Apple Watch collections use materials, not technology or components, as the primary differentiator, there is a very high probability that profit margins increase as you move up from the Sport to Watch to Edition collections. Taking the profit margin of a $17,000 Watch (likely to be around $12,000) and dividing it by the profit from one Apple Watch Sport (something around $160), you can see that one higher-priced Edition will be equivalent to selling 75 Watch Sports in terms of profit. There are a number of implications from relying on 20% of your buyers to account for 80% of your profits: 1) The higher-end Apple Watch models and bands will likely receive interesting updates and attention. We have heard of platinum watch cases and have already seen gold link Apple Watch bracelets. We may be surprised at how quickly Apple updates Watch models and bands. Simply put, it is likely incorrect to assume the Watch will follow the same update philosophy taken with the iPhone and iPad. 2) Apple is embracing a new premium mass market luxury brand. On one hand, the Sport collection is positioned for mass market consumption, reflected by the lowest entry-level price of any new Apple product category. However, the Watch, and especially the Edition, are produced and priced with luxury in mind. Apple is able to balance well-crafted, yet practical mass market items where price matters and extravagant opulence where price doesn't factor into the purchasing decision. Related Link: Apple's Watch Strategy Embraces the 80-20 Rule. The full post has additional observations on how Apple Watch pre-orders are trending including how consumers don't seem to be valuing the sapphire glass and stainless steel for an extra $200. - Above Avalon www.aboveavalon.com ALL of the above is from SAMMY(aboveavalon)..IT is his email this weekend.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Apr 20, 2015 5:58:26 GMT -8
Up more today than AAPL was down Friday... now let's go.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 20, 2015 6:15:01 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 20, 2015 6:15:24 GMT -8
Above the 50 day.. Now we need conviction
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Apr 20, 2015 6:37:48 GMT -8
Daniel is getting conservative in his old age. I APPROVE!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 6:53:13 GMT -8
Daniel is getting conservative in his old age. I APPROVE! I do as well. By comparison, Braeburnites are Raging Bulls.
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Apr 20, 2015 7:02:37 GMT -8
I hope others followed suit and bought aggressively on fri
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 20, 2015 7:04:22 GMT -8
I hope others followed suit and bought aggressively on fri Bought, but not aggressively.
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Apr 20, 2015 7:18:41 GMT -8
Funny thing was I used to spend so much time analyzing apple and trying to prognosticate their earnings. I even won the earnings smack down fortune.com/2012/01/25/apples-blow-out-quarter-once-again-the-street-blew-it/All of this doesn't really matter. It's all about market momentum, and technicals. I've gotten really good at understanding the flow of apple. Having said that - it's not healthy to follow my advice blindly. Do your own DD.
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Apr 20, 2015 7:26:33 GMT -8
Down on Friday and up on Monday. What is this strange price action?
|
|
|
Post by rezonate on Apr 20, 2015 7:29:58 GMT -8
Apple's Watch Strategy Embraces the 80-20 Rule The higher-end Apple Watch models and bands will likely receive interesting updates and attention. We have heard of platinum watch cases and have already seen gold link Apple Watch bracelets. We may be surprised at how quickly Apple updates Watch models and bands. Simply put, it is likely incorrect to assume the Watch will follow the same update philosophy taken with the iPhone and iPad. Related Link: Apple's Watch Strategy Embraces the 80-20 Rule. The full post has additional observations on how Apple Watch pre-orders are trending including how consumers don't seem to be valuing the sapphire glass and stainless steel for an extra $200. - Above Avalon www.aboveavalon.com ALL of the above is from SAMMY(aboveavalon)..IT is his email this weekend. Thank you for the cross-post. This makes me wonder about buyers of multiple watches. First, it underscores the wisdom (potentially) of managing everything from a companion application: settings for Watch #1 and Watch #2 and Watch #3 are all available on a single screen. Next, perhaps we might be allowed to "clone" watch settings and data from one to another (through the parent application) so switching from your everyday sport band to your special occasion gold won't mean your alert priorities change, or your health tracking gets complicated. Next, that entry-level buyers will be primed for the upsell next time, especially after their cut-rate sports band gets a scratch across the lens. Finally, the idea of breaking the "standard" refresh cycle is intriguing - beyond band types and colors, upgrades can come fast and furious. The personalized try-on system breaks the "waiting for a refresh" lull in sales. Walk in, check out today's watches, order (or eventually walk out with) one.
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Apr 20, 2015 7:36:03 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by rezonate on Apr 20, 2015 8:34:10 GMT -8
Apple just charged my credit card for a spare Apple Watch charging cable. Promised delivery is Thursday April 23rd through Tuesday April 28th. Here we go...
Edit 1529: "preparing for shipment".
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 8:48:40 GMT -8
Down on Friday and up on Monday. What is this strange price action? Tail, meet dog. It's the worst thing about owning AAPL. It's kinky. I'm willing to bet its partly why institutions own only 61% of it. Nonetheless, nice day today.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 20, 2015 9:25:51 GMT -8
Great strong day, but let's see if it can hold onto the gains for more than a day or two... That's what's been lacking in the last couple months...
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Apr 20, 2015 9:43:38 GMT -8
Must admit I'm enjoying watching the shorts get squeezed. Let's see what happens at 2:14.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 20, 2015 10:15:18 GMT -8
Must admit I'm enjoying watching the shorts get squeezed. Let's see what happens at 2:14. The witching moment has arrived.....
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
|
Post by chinacat on Apr 20, 2015 10:38:51 GMT -8
Must admit I'm enjoying watching the shorts get squeezed. Let's see what happens at 2:14. The witching moment has arrived..... Steady as she goes, Captain
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Apr 20, 2015 10:41:03 GMT -8
Not quite the inflection point I was hoping for...
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
|
Post by JDSoCal on Apr 20, 2015 11:05:35 GMT -8
Apple can make money for us and still point the way to a more sustainable future. Great news in time for Earth Day! (JD and I should share a pitcher of green beer on Earth Day)! One look at the numbers on America's punish the productive and reward deadbeats economics, and there is no sustainable future that I can see. And I'm not sure why Gaia worshipers would drink beer. Beer is made by yeast eating maltose, peeing ETOH, and farting carbon dioxide. I've stopped fighting Apple on its environmental fetish, if it helps with PR. The problem is, the envirowackos are never satisfied, and appeasement never works, they just want more more more. Good to see AAPL green. As far as Apple being green, well, YMMV. ( YouTube link). JD is sick today, if he seems more cranky than usual.
|
|
|
Post by rezonate on Apr 20, 2015 11:22:46 GMT -8
I read an article earlier today that advocated, on behalf of "the planet", for "less affluent people, and less people in general". Seems like a perfect place to say "so, nominate yourself!" #reality
Now, a personal mantra is "leave the place better than you found it." I don't always succeed, but it's a good lodestone for my daily compass. Apple (or any entity, person or company, for that matter) does well to trend toward "don't soil your nest". An ounce of prevention, etc. Apple does not regulate, but they can throw their considerable weight around the entire supply chain. They'll keep reporting, and we'll see how far they can move the needle.
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Apr 20, 2015 11:41:45 GMT -8
Apple can make money for us and still point the way to a more sustainable future. Great news in time for Earth Day! (JD and I should share a pitcher of green beer on Earth Day)! One look at the numbers on America's punish the productive and reward deadbeats economics, and there is no sustainable future that I can see. And I'm not sure why Gaia worshipers would drink beer. Beer is made by yeast eating maltose, peeing ETOH, and farting carbon dioxide. I've stopped fighting Apple on its environmental fetish, if it helps with PR. The problem is, the envirowackos are never satisfied, and appeasement never works, they just want more more more. Good to see AAPL green. As far as Apple being green, well, YMMV. ( YouTube link). JD is sick today, if he seems more cranky than usual. Hope you feel better tomorrow, Rush.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Apr 20, 2015 11:54:57 GMT -8
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 11:57:18 GMT -8
AMZN is up almost 4% today, near breaking $400. Did Bezos leak that Amazon is building a Fire Watch? Yeah, it leaves a bitter taste.
|
|
|
Post by The Big Toe on Apr 20, 2015 12:12:55 GMT -8
AMZN is up almost 4% today, near breaking $400. Did Bezos leak that Amazon is building a Fire Watch? Yeah, it leaves a bitter taste. It is because they are selling the 7" kindle fire for $79 today. VOLUME! May be sold at a loss, but, but, but... VOLUME!
|
|
|
Post by BillH on Apr 20, 2015 12:24:00 GMT -8
Apple can make money for us and still point the way to a more sustainable future. Great news in time for Earth Day! (JD and I should share a pitcher of green beer on Earth Day)! One look at the numbers on America's punish the productive and reward deadbeats economics, and there is no sustainable future that I can see. And I'm not sure why Gaia worshipers would drink beer. Beer is made by yeast eating maltose, peeing ETOH, and farting carbon dioxide. I've stopped fighting Apple on its environmental fetish, if it helps with PR. The problem is, the envirowackos are never satisfied, and appeasement never works, they just want more more more. Good to see AAPL green. As far as Apple being green, well, YMMV. ( YouTube link). JD is sick today, if he seems more cranky than usual. I've come to think of the solar capability as a fail-safe back up. Don't know if that's true but it's said that the electrical grid in this country is an old and patched disaster waiting to happen. Given their ever expanding cloud capability it may turn out to be a singularly wise investment. They will also have a seat at the table as the technology progresses if they're as hands on as I imagine them to be. I'm taking the long view.
|
|