4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 16, 2012 8:33:05 GMT -8
C'mon AAPL, baby needs new shoes. Pick a size, any size. We now have a big box of shoes for our oldest 2 (snow boots and hiking boots add up in size quick, especially in the larger sizes), but also a full box of size 9 and under for our youngest. C'mon AAPL, daddy wants a new iMac. And a MacBook Pro. And a Lotus
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Post by stevereel on Oct 16, 2012 8:34:35 GMT -8
I've got some projects to work on, I'll check back this afternoon.
Bollingers tightening on 1 minute chart. I'm seeing good volume on advancing bars, and lower volume on declining bars. When traders get back from lunch we may see another nice move.
I'm waiting for my favorite indicator... Lovey's "wheeee!"
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Post by lollo on Oct 16, 2012 8:37:49 GMT -8
C'mon AAPL, daddy wants a new iMac. And a MacBook Pro. And a Lotus Are you serious? I'm looking to buy a Lotus in the next days! ;D Anyway, I missed the rocket this morning... do you guys think it might come down a bit before the end of the day and.. ehm.. let me in? Maybe 644?
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Post by rosie on Oct 16, 2012 8:40:25 GMT -8
The invite is out: We have a little more to show you t.co/iu11rQX8Edit: not yet a master with the iPad App - sorry for being THAT late Love this quote from the link: "It's a small iPad, but a giant step for padkind."
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 16, 2012 8:40:44 GMT -8
This may sound naive .... but how in the hell could that invite have "surprised" anyone ? I really don't understand the mentality of the investor who buys in just because of this invite .... to those that did: 1) The earth is round 2) The tooth-fairy does not exist 3) AAPL will be trading above $900 by years end ... ok that one might be a stretch but it's got a pretty good shot ! Agreed. But I feel the same way about earnings, earnings growth, future innovation, high margins, market share gains, etc. 900 could be by year's end or it could be a year from now.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 16, 2012 8:46:40 GMT -8
HOD re-touched. 649.4
Currently less than $ 1 below high of day.
Technical notes: up 14.30, 2.25 %.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 16, 2012 8:49:08 GMT -8
This may sound naive .... but how in the hell could that invite have "surprised" anyone ? I really don't understand the mentality of the investor who buys in just because of this invite How many times have a rumor come out, that didn't end up being true? How many times has a product date been set, and then slipped? How many times have you put money into something thinking something will happen, and then it didn't? While I reinvested a lot of money last week, it was based on faith in Apple and AAPL. Sure, there's lots of good things going on. But with 14 years of investing in AAPL, I've realized you can only put so much faith into rumors. The thing that really gets you is time. Whether it's because you overinvested and need the money (margin call, or need for another reason), or you heavily invested in options and the timeframe just doesn't work out. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"! So it's a risk/reward thing. Sure, you can make your investments early and at a lower price, but there's more risk. Or you can wait until more of that risk is behind you, and not get quite as much of a reward, but still do pretty darn well. I've been mentoring someone for the past 8 months on options. We both have some nice spreads that are likely to return 100% without much risk. While I was jumping into more spreads last week, he didn't have as much faith in AAPL, instead wondering how much longer it would drop. He bought a small position, but I told him that with that mindset, and with looking at 2014 positions, it would be a lot less risky to wait until after earnings. Basically one of the five earnings would be past, and it would make forward calculations that much more accurate. And add a margin of safety. Sure, it likely wouldn't be at the low. But a 100% return is an at the money spread, where AAPL just has to go up a few dollars, less than 1%, over that timeframe. And a 150% return is only asking for a 5-10% gain in the stock. So you can afford to be less risky, or miss out on a little upfront for much more safety. To each their own. That's the nice thing about options, there are nearly an infinite number of ways to set up a position, and so it's completely customizable to what you want. On the other hand, it sometimes does make deciding on a position a little tougher. There's a good reason that Steve dropped the Mac product line down to a 2 by 2 matrix. Hey, 649 again, and this time with a little change! My Oct 610-630's and lower spreads are looking much more solid today for Friday's expiration.
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Post by roni on Oct 16, 2012 8:54:11 GMT -8
Well, all right.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 16, 2012 9:04:22 GMT -8
C'mon AAPL, daddy wants a new iMac. And a MacBook Pro. And a Lotus Are you serious? I'm looking to buy a Lotus in the next days! ;D Yea, I've had my eye on one for a while, but never actually been behind the wheel. The next time we are down in the bay area I'd like to head down to Los Gatos and change that. Unfortunately, my practical side is trying to make headway. We get a lot of snow up here, and we have 3 young kids. It would be great if I could at least drop 2 of them off at school. But then a couple months ago a friend gave me a twin turbo 3000gt that was failing CA smog. Eventually I got it up here, but I drove it a little hard up over the mountain coming back from registering it in Carson City. It had a few issues, including likely a leaking head gasket, but I made it worse. I love the looks of it, and it is AWD which makes it much more practical up here. Heck, there's even a back seat, and airbags. But I'll probably sell it and wait for the right car, and have space in this garage to put my 4runner. My wife wants to add a few feet onto the kitchen and redo it, which will require changing the roofline for a small section too. I'm guessing with high end appliances it could be up to $100-150k. If that happens, I'll probably tack on $30k for me, whether it's for a fairly new Lotus, or a new Tacoma. These Octs are nice, but the big time is Jan expiration. Luckily my spreads are fairly conservative, so they are very likely to make their 100-200% with plenty to spare. And while nothing is a lock, some of them are way down at 430-450, bought back in December. Ahhh, AAPL's trajectory has been fun, hasn't it.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 16, 2012 9:05:37 GMT -8
its kinda nice with Citi being in the spotlight all day. it was getting old of only hearing Apple this and Apple that all last week.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 16, 2012 9:15:02 GMT -8
C'mon AAPL, daddy wants a new iMac. And a MacBook Pro. And a Lotus Are you serious? I'm looking to buy a Lotus in the next days! ;D Pics and time for a car thread in the new place.
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Post by stevereel on Oct 16, 2012 9:23:54 GMT -8
C'mon AAPL, baby needs new shoes. Pick a size, any size. We now have a big box of shoes for our oldest 2 (snow boots and hiking boots add up in size quick, especially in the larger sizes), but also a full box of size 9 and under for our youngest. C'mon AAPL, daddy wants a new iMac. And a MacBook Pro. And a Lotus OK, reality is, My kids have paws and don't wear shoes. MacBook Pro 13" sounds good, though!
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 16, 2012 9:28:12 GMT -8
Reminds me of when Apple had an event to release iPod speakers and some cases. This could actually turn out to be true (Apple releasing nothing). We know it can't be the rumored iPad Mini, because several of the Braeburn gurus have told us otherwise. Because, you know, iPods would be cannibalized, and they are a whopping 3% of Apple's revenues.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 16, 2012 9:30:01 GMT -8
MacBook Pro 13" sounds good, though! Fair enough! I'm leaning toward a 15" this time around. Our MacBook is 5.5 years old now, and while it's still doing fine, I'd like a little larger screen.
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Post by stevereel on Oct 16, 2012 9:36:46 GMT -8
I'm doing 90% of my work on a late 2010 macbook air, goes most everywhere with me. Some video rendering I still do on a 2007 MacBook Pro. So it may be getting time for an upgrade.
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Post by tuffett on Oct 16, 2012 9:37:21 GMT -8
Reminds me of when Apple had an event to release iPod speakers and some cases. This could actually turn out to be true (Apple releasing nothing). We know it can't be the rumored iPad Mini, because several of the Braeburn gurus have told us otherwise. Because, you know, iPods would be cannibalized, and they are a whopping 3% of Apple's revenues. I don't understand how seemingly intelligent independent analysts are so insistent that this is not happening in face of so much evidence. I have been fairly certain for weeks now, and the certainty has been growing by the day.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 16, 2012 9:42:22 GMT -8
This may sound naive .... but how in the hell could that invite have "surprised" anyone ? I really don't understand the mentality of the investor who buys in just because of this invite .... to those that did: 1) The earth is round 2) The tooth-fairy does not exist 3) AAPL will be trading above $900 by years end ... ok that one might be a stretch but it's got a pretty good shot ! They wanted proof. It's a cold cruel world out there, full of deceit and lies, and being taken advantage of.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 16, 2012 9:57:19 GMT -8
This could actually turn out to be true (Apple releasing nothing). We know it can't be the rumored iPad Mini, because several of the Braeburn gurus have told us otherwise. Because, you know, iPods would be cannibalized, and they are a whopping 3% of Apple's revenues. I don't understand how seemingly intelligent independent analysts are so insistent that this is not happening in face of so much evidence. I have been fairly certain for weeks now, and the certainty has been growing by the day. We had a few folks on this board who didn't believe it was coming (and, admittedly, right now we still don't know for absolute certainty). That's what makes horse races.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 16, 2012 10:01:56 GMT -8
Sheesh! Can someone tell me why ONLY my iPhone can't login to ProBoards?
Anyway, the invite got here a little earlier than expected. Stop limit on the Apr 13s to leg into BCS triggered. In wait and see mode...so far, so good.
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 16, 2012 10:02:54 GMT -8
Are you serious? I'm looking to buy a Lotus in the next days! ;D Pics and time for a car thread in the new place. Yes please! +1
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 16, 2012 10:03:09 GMT -8
About iPad mini doubt: Asymmetrical market knowledge ("rumor knowledge"?) at work. Sometimes the market gives us gifts.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 16, 2012 10:12:10 GMT -8
This could actually turn out to be true (Apple releasing nothing). We know it can't be the rumored iPad Mini, because several of the Braeburn gurus have told us otherwise. Because, you know, iPods would be cannibalized, and they are a whopping 3% of Apple's revenues. I don't understand how seemingly intelligent independent analysts are so insistent that this is not happening in face of so much evidence. I have been fairly certain for weeks now, and the certainty has been growing by the day. That's just it. They have convinced themselves that they are so smart, they can't be wrong. I saw this phenomenon when I was in sports journalism, in another lifetime, covering college basketball recruiting. I'd speak to a kid about which school he was going to sign with, talk to his parents, and to the college coaches, who'd just gotten off the phone with the kid. But then one of the recruiting gurus would tell me, "he'd never go there, because of XXX." I'd say, "but I just talked to the kid." They'd say, "so what, he would never go there." Then the kid signs with that school a week later. I saw this all the time. "Experts" substituting their own opinions for actual news. As far as talking to the coaches, they could not speak about unsigned recruits under NCAA rules, so I would have to report what they said WRT recruiting on deep background, i.e., no attribution. That is a legitimate news sourcing practice for people who cannot speak on the record. And I learned to get inside and get deep background info like Bob Woodward, to the point where nobody questioned my veracity (it drove the gurus and media relations people crazy). So please people, learn to distinguish between "rumors" and "deep background sources." A president was brought down by the latter. The funny part is, not one of the AAPL gurus who were arguing cannibalization of iPods mentioned that the iPod is a mere 3% of Apple revenues - and dropping fast. As PED mentioned a mere 8 days ago, iPods do produce enough revenue not to just abandon for no reason, but they are certainly are not some cash cow that cannot risk cannibalization when taking on a larger market. After all, Apple has previously creatively destroyed a market it created, while not hurting its own products. It was called "the personal computer."
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Post by rosie on Oct 16, 2012 10:34:27 GMT -8
Sheesh! Can someone tell me why ONLY my iPhone can't login to ProBoards? Anyway, the invite got here a little earlier than expected. Stop limit on the Apr 13s to leg into BCS triggered. In wait and see mode...so far, so good. Mav, try a simple delete and re install of the app itself. another help might be to try and open probds from the app store and try to log in that way.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 16, 2012 10:44:54 GMT -8
We're back to fighting the 649 wall again. If we close above 650 today it'll be a bullish catalyst for the rest of the week which could possibly take us to 670. Needless to say, we're guaranteed to have lotsa fun next week for sure
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 16, 2012 10:47:40 GMT -8
A dip down to 645 land and now returning to 648. Meanwhile, MSFT is riding even, Dell and HPQ are green but that's just algae.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 16, 2012 10:54:41 GMT -8
We're back to fighting the 649 wall again. If we close above 650 today it'll be a bullish catalyst for the rest of the week which could possibly take us to 670. Needless to say, we're guaranteed to have lotsa fun next week for sure Dream, why fight it, lets just jump over it tomorrow.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 16, 2012 10:55:35 GMT -8
So please people, learn to distinguish between "rumors" and "deep background sources." But again, a lot depends on timing. People were talking about an Apple based phone for years. It started out as a wish (this UI sucks, surely if Apple made one it would be better), got closer with similar products (MOT phone integrated with iTunes), and then more and more sources. But most of the rumors were growing speculation. Some might have been based on seeing a product, or supplying something likely used for a prototype, but at the time the initial announcement was still a decent ways ahead of the actual product announcement, so that was kept to a minimum. Here, we're expecting Apple to being shipping the smaller iPad fairly soon after announcing it, which means they have already had to ramp up production, which means they have had to source parts in serious quantities for a while. So there are a whole lot more plausible rumors. It's harder and harder to keep something a secret, especially when you are making millions of units. But the timing. It's possible for it to be off. And it has been. Back in late August, many to most articles were talking about a September launch. Maybe their timeframe was incorrect. Or maybe Apple changed it due to a problem or change. But if you put a large portion of your portfolio into options based on the incorrect timeframe, you'd be screwed. And you wouldn't care too much if the rumors, other than the timeframe, were correct. Apple does make a big push to get their products out before the holiday buying season, and I'm guessing they will have the iPad mini out within October to early November. But there's still some risk there before they announce it, and even before they ship in quantity. And there's much less risk about them coming out soon now than there was a week ago, even if you felt it was a lock that Apple would announce them. Remember, most thought Apple was going to send out the invite last week, and many thought it would be back in September. Timing matters!
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Post by ccs on Oct 16, 2012 10:56:06 GMT -8
We're back to fighting the 649 wall again. If we close above 650 today it'll be a bullish catalyst for the rest of the week which could possibly take us to 670. Needless to say, we're guaranteed to have lotsa fun next week for sure Dream, why fight it, lets just jump over it tomorrow. Baby steps..... $15 baby steps
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 16, 2012 11:00:04 GMT -8
Volume is passing the average volume HOD , short by a penny.
talking about EO algorithms. they saw HOD approaching. Somebody started to sell.
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Post by moltenfire on Oct 16, 2012 11:06:04 GMT -8
We'll probably have the new iTunes at the Oct 23 unveiling too. I for one am looking forward for more reliable Wifi syncing on Windows.
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