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Post by wildguess on Apr 28, 2015 7:42:29 GMT -8
Carl just tweeted that Apple is undervalued and misunderstood and to expect an in depth report within two weeks.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 28, 2015 7:58:01 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 28, 2015 8:07:33 GMT -8
I hope everyone followed my unequivocally bullish advice and BTFD.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Apr 28, 2015 8:10:48 GMT -8
Stock manipulation at its best. Did you see the fluctuation in the price between 10 am and 10:15 or so? Anyway sold a call on common yesterday @ $135 for Friday @ 2.40 and covered them at around $131.40 today. I only deal with covered calls so if AAPL stays below $135 until Friday I will own more shares than I ever have. I am not too nervous but I really would like to think the SEC would look at firms like Citi who manipulate this stock at the expense of the retail investors. I wish I had as much faith as Mercel in the retail side but I don't. I would bet there were a lot them buying in after hours yesterday who sold at a loss this morning. I have been there myself so I guess it takes one to know one. We've discussed this here and other places MANY times already. The amount of capital required to manipulate this stock (and any reasonably liquid stock) is much higher than the amount of capital you can gain from the manipulation. Therefore this isn't manipulation what you are witnessing. Squaring large option positions by buying or selling large amounts of stock ISN'T manipulation, it is one of the normal ways of trading options/stock and sometimes causes rapid changes in the value of the stock. I wasn't necessarily referring to the immediate buying and selling but more to the downgrades and notes from analysts such as Citi removing AAPL from their preferred list as noted on one of the networks. Perhaps you are right and there is no effort to manipulate these liquid stocks, no insider trading and no collusion. If you are right I wish we could get rid of the SEC and if you are wrong perhaps we should get rid of them anyway and save the taxpayers a little money. Like I said I am a simple retail investor, who does not have a clear understanding of how all of this works, but I have been growing my IRA exponentially over the last few years by investing on how these large firms will "square large option positions" on Apple stock. If someone at my level of expertise can make money by this non-manipulation I am sure the people who control millions of dollars of investment can make more. Maybe you are entirely correct but there are millions of people who will not touch the stock market because they believe it is rigged and that is a shame.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2015 8:14:06 GMT -8
Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies posted an interesting chart this morning. Xiaomi did not have a good quarter. n
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Post by podboy on Apr 28, 2015 8:26:17 GMT -8
Paper losses and gains. IV was crushed. Portfolio went down $15K up $15K all in a days work lol. I remember when I started investing in AAPL & the stock market in 2012 $3K loss in a day would have me stressed out beyond belief. Now just roll with the punches and stay long. Weird how after a while in this stock makes you somewhat immune, 2013 helped me more than I realized. Helps when you're up $150K on initial investment I guess.
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Post by nathanstevens on Apr 28, 2015 8:27:12 GMT -8
I hope everyone followed my unequivocally bullish advice and BTFD. Bought back all the hedges that I sold just before close yesterday.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 8:30:59 GMT -8
MSFT is up almost 2% today. Did MSFT warn of an earnings miss? /s
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2015 8:35:14 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2015 8:53:27 GMT -8
From my UPS driver:
me: how many WATCH did you deliver Friday:
driver: 3
me: how many WATCH did you deliver yesterday and today?:
driver: none
me: how many iPhone 6 did you deliver on the first day?:
driver: 20
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Post by moltenfire on Apr 28, 2015 9:06:31 GMT -8
From my UPS driver: me: how many WATCH did you deliver Friday: driver: 3 me: how many WATCH did you deliver yesterday and today?: driver: none me: how many iPhone 6 did you deliver on the first day?: driver: 20 So what were you getting from UPS? Not a new Apple Watch, because he said none today. A new iPhone 6?
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Post by incorrigible on Apr 28, 2015 9:39:45 GMT -8
Your driver has a hell of a memory. :/
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Post by northstar on Apr 28, 2015 9:47:18 GMT -8
From my UPS driver: me: how many WATCH did you deliver Friday: driver: 3 me: how many WATCH did you deliver yesterday and today?: driver: none me: how many iPhone 6 did you deliver on the first day?: driver: 20 So what were you getting from UPS? Not a new Apple Watch, because he said none today. A new iPhone 6? Says more about Minnesota than anything...!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 28, 2015 9:54:39 GMT -8
Saw this from Robert Paul Leiteo on PED's site; I agree this is the reason we've had little stock upside today:
"No matter Apple’s blowout quarter, during the conference call with management Wall Street analysts seemed fixated on the Apple Watch and the new product line’s early sales performance and June quarter gross margin. While the Apple Watch will deliver new revenue for Apple through unit sales, it will also bolster iPhone sales and the new line expands developer opportunities within Apple’s eco-system."
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 28, 2015 9:56:28 GMT -8
So what were you getting from UPS? Not a new Apple Watch, because he said none today. A new iPhone 6? Says more about Minnesota than anything...! This one data point would seem to confirm the kinds of good watch numbers we've been expecting. 3/20 = 15% 15% of 9 million (iPhone 6 first weekend) = 1.35 million. Not bad for first weekend of a new product, esp with supply contraints
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2015 9:59:14 GMT -8
my suggestion: ask YOUR UPS driver the same questions.Apple Pay Scores Big Wins with Best Buy, Discover Best Buy and Discover just moved into Apple Pay’s camp. Could these wins for Apple Pay mean that Cupertino is emerging as the winner in mobile payments and that more players, particularly major merchants, will inevitably follow? Not necessarily, but that doesn’t mean they’re not big deals. The addition of Discover means that the last major payment network is now part of the Apple Pay ecosystem. Discover is not only a payment network — it is a depository institution with more than $75 billion in assets. It will turn on its Apple Pay capabilities this fall. Apple Pay already has 2,500 banks on board its mobile payments system, which exacts a hefty toll from its banking partners. Meanwhile Best Buy, which had switched off NFC at its registers in a high-profile snub of Apple Pay six months ago, reversed its position yesterday. This announcement was part of the theatrics on Apple’s earnings call, and a good political play by the big-box store. The move is significant because Best Buy is a member of MCX, the merchant-led mobile payments initiatives using ACH payments to help merchants avoid fees from the card networks. All of Best Buy’s point-of-sale devices are now being upgraded to NFC, said payments expert Brian Roemmele. bankinnovation.net/2015/04/apple-pay-scores-big-wins-with-best-buy-discover-card/
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Post by mrentropy on Apr 28, 2015 10:12:14 GMT -8
RE: the stock going down today. The chart is forming a pretty little cup and handle. A break above the former highs should be a nice confirmation of it and rip us higher. It's frustrating to see the price doing this, but it could bode well fro the long term.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 28, 2015 10:14:22 GMT -8
Saw this from Robert Paul Leiteo on PED's site; I agree this is the reason we've had little stock upside today: "No matter Apple’s blowout quarter, during the conference call with management Wall Street analysts seemed fixated on the Apple Watch and the new product line’s early sales performance and June quarter gross margin. While the Apple Watch will deliver new revenue for Apple through unit sales, it will also bolster iPhone sales and the new line expands developer opportunities within Apple’s eco-system." "Analyst" pablum. Tastes light. Less filling.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2015 10:32:52 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Apr 28, 2015 11:03:29 GMT -8
Well that was short lived. Bullish cup and handle or possible double top as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 11:23:16 GMT -8
Saw this from Robert Paul Leiteo on PED's site; I agree this is the reason we've had little stock upside today: "No matter Apple’s blowout quarter, during the conference call with management Wall Street analysts seemed fixated on the Apple Watch and the new product line’s early sales performance and June quarter gross margin. While the Apple Watch will deliver new revenue for Apple through unit sales, it will also bolster iPhone sales and the new line expands developer opportunities within Apple’s eco-system." Tim could have said he learned from Bezos that transparency is the enemy of a rising stock price. Why in the hell should Tim give them transparency only for WS to punish them with it? I say Bravo to Tim and Luca. Had iPad been lumped in with Macs or iPhones, we would likely be trading higher. I'd prefer Apple just give WS revenues, gross margin, net income and a simple "fuck you." The irritation by Tim over the questions on the call was noted and was warranted.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 28, 2015 11:40:11 GMT -8
I agree actually. Just report the key numbers with no product breakdown. Intrigue gets a huge premium. Clarity gets you nothing. Stock will take a huge hit the first time they switch but save $50B to buy back after it happens and it would actually be a good thing for long term investors.
40% EPS growth with varied sources of revenue and it's at 60% of GOOG's multiple. Hilarious. I won't bother mentioning AMZN.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 28, 2015 12:16:19 GMT -8
Why was the earnings call on the 27th instead of the 21st or 22nd? Last year it was on the 23rd. 2013 it was on the 23rd. 2012 it was on the 24th.
MY WAG: news on the WATCH.
THERE WAS NO NEWS!
If had scheduled the earnings call LAST week, there would be no reason to speak of the WATCH.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
Member is Online
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Post by bud777 on Apr 28, 2015 12:19:19 GMT -8
I agree actually. Just report the key numbers with no product breakdown. Intrigue gets a huge premium. Clarity gets you nothing. Stock will take a huge hit the first time they switch but save $50B to buy back after it happens and it would actually be a good thing for long term investors. 40% EPS growth with varied sources of revenue and it's at 60% of GOOG's multiple. Hilarious. I won't bother mentioning AMZN. I don't know that any reporting convention would really help. But there is this...despite Googles P/E, Google investors are only up 5% YTD. We are up 18%. I won't bother mentioning Amazon either. I must stop trying to make sense out of the behavior of this stock. It acts like most of the people who hold it have no idea what a financial statement looks like. Confirmation of this will come when Icahn says something irrelevant and the stock pops 20 points.
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Post by BillH on Apr 28, 2015 12:28:29 GMT -8
So what were you getting from UPS? Not a new Apple Watch, because he said none today. A new iPhone 6? Says more about Minnesota than anything...! Maybe. It may have something to say about the demographic in Artman's neighborhood. The Twin Cities have always been a really strong market going all the way back to when a local dealer/distrubutor helped craft the original distribution agreement back in the Apple 2 days. My wife just took delivery of her SS with white sport band which had a 4 to 6 week lead time when ordered. The UPS guy smiled when he handed it to her and said "that's one of those watches isn't it?" She answered yes and asked how many he delivered last Friday. He said he personally delivered 4 but there were 26 delivered between Key West and the 7 mile bridge. Clearly, we're not the only ones paying attention to sale data points.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 12:38:08 GMT -8
I agree actually. Just report the key numbers with no product breakdown. Intrigue gets a huge premium. Clarity gets you nothing. Stock will take a huge hit the first time they switch but save $50B to buy back after it happens and it would actually be a good thing for long term investors. 40% EPS growth with varied sources of revenue and it's at 60% of GOOG's multiple. Hilarious. I won't bother mentioning AMZN. I don't know that any reporting convention would really help. But there is this...despite Googles P/E, Google investors are only up 5% YTD. We are up 18%. I won't bother mentioning Amazon either. I must stop trying to make sense out of the behavior of this stock. It acts like most of the people who hold it have no idea what a financial statement looks like. Confirmation of this will come when Icahn says something irrelevant and the stock pops 20 points. I'll happily trade GOOG's P/E ratio for a % increase arbitrarily measured as of January 1, 2015. I'm tired of looking for silver linings in an imbecilic stock market.
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Post by incorrigible on Apr 28, 2015 12:58:17 GMT -8
Whenever I get frustrated with AAPL, pull up a 10 year chart and overlay one that seems to be doing better than Apple. Like GOOG. Then I feel better.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 28, 2015 14:27:55 GMT -8
Analysts spouting the bear case here: fortune.com/author/philip-elmer-dewitt/Basically the same thing we've been seeing for 5 years or more: "apple's best days are behind it, they have nothing new that's as good as the old"
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Apr 28, 2015 15:43:00 GMT -8
The level of analyst stupidity hits new lows today as these astute, would-be mind-readers over-think the words of a seemingly fatigued Tim Cook. CEO Cook's CC performance lacked the usual song and dance, pantomime, and juggling show which analysts are apparently accustomed to seeing. As Tim only received 3 out of 5 stars for his performance and analysts weren't given complimentary jello pops, the stock fell today despite record breaking results and proof of continued juggernaut momentum. feedproxy.google.com/~r/InternetTechnologyRss/~3/VinXh1Tjxvk/042815-749951-apple-ceo-tim-cook-gives-no-specifics-on-watch-sales.htm"Sacconaghi was underwhelmed by Cook's commentary on the Apple Watch, the company's first new product category in five years.
"While Apple did not provide an explicit forecast for the Watch or comment on orders to date, its tone describing demand discernibly lacked the enthusiasm and superlatives that have typically accompanied other Apple product launches," Sacconaghi said."
"The company also "was coy about what it expected the Watch's sustainable margin profile to be," Sacconaghi said. "We had viewed the Watch as potentially meaningfully margin-accretive to Apple's financials going forward, and are incrementally puzzled — and sobered — by Apple's commentary."
"Cowen analyst Timothy Arcuri says that the lack of specifics for the Apple Watch launch reaffirms his "relatively tepid outlook" for the wearable until the second-generation product comes out. Arcuri rates Apple as outperform with a price target of 135.
UBS analyst Steven Milunovich says that the Apple Watch commentary was "ambiguous." But Apple's ability to start selling the smartwatch in additional countries in June is "making us wonder about demand," he said in a note Tuesday.
Comments lacked 'usual bullishness'
The commentary from Apple management about the Apple Watch "lacked the usual bullishness that we have become accustomed to from Apple," Mizuho Securities analyst Abhey Lamba said in a note Monday. "Our checks in Asia continue to indicate that the unit volumes remain slow to ramp, and there is a possibility that Watch units might disappoint investors." Cook clarified his comments, saying he didn't want people to interpret his comments to mean something else.
"I'm thrilled with it," he said. "I feel really great about it. The customer response, literally, from what I've seen, is close to 100% positive. And so it's hard to imagine it being better."
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Post by rickag on Apr 28, 2015 15:43:21 GMT -8
Whenever I get frustrated with AAPL, pull up a 10 year chart and overlay one that seems to be doing better than Apple. Like GOOG. Then I feel better. Touché
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