Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 4, 2015 2:34:16 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on May 4, 2015 3:12:38 GMT -8
Another reminder that AAPL goes ex-dividend on May 7th.
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Post by nagrani on May 4, 2015 5:42:19 GMT -8
So to be clear and apologies since I should know this - just don't usually own shares - if I own shares by close of business on the 6th - divvy is mine for those shares - even if I sell during market hours on the 7th??
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Post by Apple II+ on May 4, 2015 6:02:21 GMT -8
So to be clear and apologies since I should know this - just don't usually own shares - if I own shares by close of business on the 6th - divvy is mine for those shares - even if I sell during market hours on the 7th?? Correct. You can even buy after hours on the 6th and sell pre-market on the 7th.
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Post by nagrani on May 4, 2015 6:02:27 GMT -8
Mercel - what was the surprise?
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Post by pauls on May 4, 2015 6:31:20 GMT -8
Mercel - what was the surprise? Yes, please.
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Post by macwire on May 4, 2015 7:06:26 GMT -8
Come on AAPL let's clip over 130 and close up there
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 4, 2015 7:11:03 GMT -8
So far, not much to the icahn / post-options expiration Monday bounce...
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Post by nagrani on May 4, 2015 7:17:31 GMT -8
Sold everything!! Went back in via selling weekly puts. 125s
My new trading strategy has changed. Good luck all
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on May 4, 2015 8:05:25 GMT -8
That SAMEsung ad on PED's site is unbelievable. Just shameless, talentless hacks.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2015 8:06:34 GMT -8
Mercel - what was the surprise? Yes, please. Watch PED's site. It should get published before market close.
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mark
fire starter
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Member is Online
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Post by mark on May 4, 2015 8:43:56 GMT -8
Watch PED's site. It should get published before market close. Where is "PED's site"?
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Post by macwire on May 4, 2015 8:46:25 GMT -8
Well now you know where the resistance is.
Groan.
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Post by rob_london on May 4, 2015 8:48:41 GMT -8
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2015 8:50:46 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on May 4, 2015 8:51:09 GMT -8
That SAMEsung ad on PED's site is unbelievable. Just shameless, talentless hacks. My fellow countryman doing the voice-over in the Samsung video couldn't even pronounce aluminium correctly.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 4, 2015 8:53:00 GMT -8
Today's technical action suggests a "lower high" on the short term... Combined with last week's activity, suggests more downside in the near term...
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Post by rob_london on May 4, 2015 8:57:12 GMT -8
On Reuters earlier today: "Goertek Inc denies market rumour on Apple Inc's plan to acquire the company for $7.48 billion" www.goertek.com/en/
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2015 9:03:12 GMT -8
That SAMEsung ad on PED's site is unbelievable. Just shameless, talentless hacks. My fellow countryman doing the voice-over in the Samsung video couldn't even pronounce aluminium correctly. At this level of R&D spending, whatever Apple is working on, it won't remain a big secret for long. I'd expect it's going to start leaking and maybe, just maybe, WS can think of AAPL with the same optimism is reserves for companies like Amazon.
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Post by macwire on May 4, 2015 9:09:11 GMT -8
My fellow countryman doing the voice-over in the Samsung video couldn't even pronounce aluminium correctly. At this level of R&D spending, whatever Apple is working on, it won't remain a big secret for long. I'd expect it's going to start leaking and maybe, just maybe, WS can think of AAPL with the same optimism is reserves for companies like Amazon. Ridiculous. Market will never do that. Never. Don't know why. But it won't. I've given up on it even looking at it similarly to Microsoft or Google. So frustrating.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2015 9:12:26 GMT -8
"....maybe, just maybe" = hope springs eternal.
But, yeah, I agree. AAPL has too much earnings history to suddenly accept AMZN's lackluster operating performance for future profitability.
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Post by artman1033 on May 4, 2015 9:32:04 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on May 4, 2015 9:32:47 GMT -8
Very nice Mercel. Giddy up
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Post by rickag on May 4, 2015 9:33:19 GMT -8
I know a lot can change, but just looking at OI for the next couple of months doesn't look promising. May Monthly OI Approaching 100,000 calls @ $130 strike June Monthly OI Over 150,000 calls @ $135, offset somewhat by over 100,000 puts.
May the call walls come tumbling down.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 4, 2015 9:38:12 GMT -8
Market will never do that. Never. Don't know why. But it won't. I've given up on it even looking at it similarly to Microsoft or Google. So frustrating. You should know why, or at least be familiar with all the excuses. One of many is the purchase cycle. You might replace your Mac every 3-5 years (our MacBook finally had problems last year at 7 years). Your iPhone might be replaced every 2-3 years, but that's partially due to contracts (with contracts you actually lose money by holding onto it too long....our resale value on 2 year old iPhones nearly paid for our portion of new ones)...but that's part of what's making the iPhone business so profitable. But look at iPads. Our one, now maybe 4 years old, is doing just fine. We don't use it daily, and don't run high end games on it. It seems to run things fine, and my real reason to upgrade would be to nab one with LTE to get the free data from T-mobile, but that's less of an issue now that we have more data on our iPhone plan. "the market" values continued purchases, even if they are small and/or less profitable. It's the renewed interest that they can track. Netflix or amazon with an additional 6% of business or whatnot. Whereas the slow cycle, along with focusing on fewer things, brings up the "are the customers still waiting in the wings" and the "are they going to be able to make the next new thing" or stay cool or whatnot. I'm not saying it's right. But there is some risk/reward analysis going on there, and in some respects it makes a little sense. That said, I've never invested in Netflix, and my last position in AMZN, was a short day trade 16 years ago. Once I've seen "good companies" have their P/E just sliced for what seemed like little to no reason, I couldn't get myself to invest in ones that had a crazy high P/E. One way to look at it is that each company is different and you have to just go with the ranges the market gives it. But the other is that it's a cliff just waiting to be stepped off of if the market ever decides to readjust that dramatically. IMO that's what really crushed AAPL a few times, the combination of a downturn and a readjust of P/E range. That said, though we're not at the bottom of the range, most potential P/E range crushing has taken place, so the stock is tied a lot more directly to growing earnings. It's not down in the 10-12 range, where it could/would/will head again the next time there's a downturn in the stock or the whole market. But that's less of a drop these days. Here's a chart including the P/E of the last decade of AAPL: bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=True&insttype=Stock&symb=aapl&time=13&type=128&style=320&size=4
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 4, 2015 9:43:23 GMT -8
I had a friend who used to say, "It is what it is, and we don't mind it one bit".
Most of us have made a boatload of money on Apple. I would love to just peel off a few shares now and then, but leave the majority of my position to my children. As a buy and hold forever investor, the low P/E given by WS is actually a blessing. Anyone with substantial Google or Amazon holding has to constantly face the possibility that their inflated P/E ratio will be corrected from absurd to just ridiculous. I sleep well knowing that we are undervalued. Seriously, despite the lack of rational behavior, we seem to be doing OK YTD.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2015 9:51:45 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on May 4, 2015 9:53:40 GMT -8
I see, "Merckel"
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 4, 2015 9:57:41 GMT -8
I know a lot can change, but just looking at OI for the next couple of months doesn't look promising. The nice thing about those (from a bullish perspective) is that they are out of the money (at least most of the calls are). I'm sure some big players with some cash sitting around would be happy to write those May 15 130's. Buy some shares right now at 129, and write covered calls to pocket 1.30. If the stock is above there in 2 weeks, they are called away, but they just made 1.7% in 2 weeks. Do that 6 times a year and it annualizes to 11%. 12 times, so 50% of the year, and it's 23%. I can live off of either of those, and even have some spare change for a few edition watches, sans spray paint. On the down side, if they already want the shares, then no problem. This gives them an equivalent buy-in of 127.7. Or call it 129, and making 1% in 2 weeks. There's plenty of other options to up that percentage if someone had the cash, such as being partially or fully naked on the trade. With the stock below the strike, that just changes the risk/reward, and they could choose to buy-in at 130 or even 131.3 and still break even. Personally, I try to look at the OI when buying a spread, to get under the potential pull. But truthfully I don't think it matters too much when too far out. There's normally dips due to other reasons, which lets those on the ball go ahead and cover. To me, it's just the times where there's big numbers that don't cancel out (i.e. equal numbers of 130 calls and 135 puts would cancel out in the 130-135 range), when volume is low. Last week, that peak at 125 was over 100k. 10M shares to cover that add up, but they're much less of a danger when the daily stock volume is 80M than when 40M or 20M. In the end while it didn't matter too much on Friday, it likely played a part in the pull down on Thursday. And interestingly, Friday's volume on those strikes more than covered the OI, so I have a feeling that those calls and puts were bought back Friday morning when the price wasn't much more than $125.0.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 4, 2015 10:20:26 GMT -8
I posted this in the comments: I would like very much to see Apple just buy Amazon. Not because I believe in Amazon in any way, but I think it would be great to see the WS analysts try to reconcile these diametrically opposed irrational views. Can you imagine the sheer mental anguish? "It will all pay off in the future....unless it is a one trick pony....and we can grow forever without profit...but the law of large numbers...." I want to see exploding heads.
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