Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 5, 2015 2:23:03 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Was yesterday a disappointment or what? AAPL is GREEN again in premarket trading at 128.98 +0.28 (0.22%) as of 6:13AM. Major US indices are flat this morning, flipping back and forth between red and green. Looks like Mr. Market is trying to decide which way to go. In the news: Bloomberg reports EU Will Miss Apple Tax-Probe Deadline, Vestager Tells Lawmakers. “We will not sacrifice the rule of law or the quality of our work to speed up the process”. Perhaps they're having difficulty finding a legal basis for their assertions? BI is at it again, this time damning with faint praise in Apple Pay is a joy to use, even if it doesn’t always work. Since when is a cash register being out of order a problem with cash? Not much else. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 5, 2015 3:36:16 GMT -8
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 4:17:39 GMT -8
AAPL should be at least $10 higher but perhaps Mr. Market is still noodling the huge March quarter? Or does WS stay fixated on more Watch data points before it gains confidence in Apple's future?
WS may have to crush more call walls before AAPL goes higher.
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Post by rickag on May 5, 2015 5:30:08 GMT -8
finviz updated their TTE for AAPL to $8.09 giving AAPL a P/E of 15.91.
Yahoo has yet to update.
Refuse to use Google.
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Post by macwire on May 5, 2015 5:53:59 GMT -8
That's 3 dollar hard fade in 1.5 sessions after tapping 130 for what a total of 15-25 minutes yesterday?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 6:06:30 GMT -8
200K calls at strikes above $127 may all get crushed by Friday, which is most of them. Again.
People are likely playing lotto, based on AAPL's "performance pattern" following its earnings report in January. I'll be surprised in AAPL does anything this week.
I hope Apple is buying AAPL here.
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Post by nagrani on May 5, 2015 6:06:41 GMT -8
I rolled my weekly puts 125 to next week 123 and got some credit. If Apple drops to below 123 next week. I'll gladly take the shares. In the meantime - market is paying me to be on the sidelines.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 5, 2015 6:12:37 GMT -8
What happened to the dividend buyers? Geez!
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Post by rickag on May 5, 2015 6:12:53 GMT -8
I rolled my weekly puts 125 to next week 123 and got some credit. If Apple drops to below 123 next week. I'll gladly take the shares. In the meantime - market is paying me to be on the sidelines. With a TTE @ 8.09, $123 would be a P/E of 15.2 and a PEG of 1.15 using finviz 5 year EPS growth of 13.2.
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Post by nagrani on May 5, 2015 6:21:08 GMT -8
Yes. I like the strategy here. I don't think apple has closed below 123 in months. If Apple does go to 123. I could always roll out a week at a lower strike and collect more premium.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 5, 2015 7:11:59 GMT -8
I know it is all about patience here, but I feel like that old cartoon where two vultures are sitting on a branch and one says "Screw it. I am going to go kill something"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 7:43:08 GMT -8
Institutions don't turn AAPL over much, so this day-to-day action isn't likely them. However, 2.2B shares of AAPL are owned by retail investors, a potentially powerful mega-hedge fund if the subscribers ever decided to act in concert.
If AMZN goes up another $25-$35 bucks (which they could do by the end of the week), I'm going to buy puts on that inflated balloon.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 5, 2015 7:54:32 GMT -8
Is there a technician on the AFB that can shed a little light on this?...because there is a little confusion on other technical boards as to why this is behaving so poorly
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 5, 2015 8:03:14 GMT -8
No technical reason - macro market reason.
"US trade data points to first-quarter economic contraction" is the Reuters headline. Markets down, Nasdaq down 1.2%, AAPL about 1.5%, so nothing out of the ordinary for Apple... "everyone" is fearing that the market is about to roll over like it's 2008. That's my read anyway.
Technicalswise, it isn't good that Apple put in a "lower high" but if it can bounce up over 130.50 soon, before it breaks down below the recent lows, then it will invalidate the lower high...
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Post by incorrigible on May 5, 2015 8:24:53 GMT -8
Is there a technician on the AFB that can shed a little light on this? Yes. It sucks! End of analysis.
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Post by rickag on May 5, 2015 8:30:45 GMT -8
Yes. I like the strategy here. I don't think apple has closed below 123 in months. If Apple does go to 123. I could always roll out a week at a lower strike and collect more premium. I like this strategy, hope you keep us informed.
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Post by nagrani on May 5, 2015 8:42:04 GMT -8
Yes. I like the strategy here. I don't think apple has closed below 123 in months. If Apple does go to 123. I could always roll out a week at a lower strike and collect more premium. I like this strategy, hope you keep us informed. I rolled out even further and got some more credit. Now holding 122 puts that 5/22. Same strategy. I don't mind being assigned shares at 122 with wwdc and buyback on tap
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Post by phoebear611 on May 5, 2015 9:22:35 GMT -8
I am seeing commentary on a few boards and blogs about AAPL R&D being up significantly and whispers about "something big" being up. Guesses are cars (self driving) - the ever elusive TV - and a myriad of other things. That being said you would never know it given with how the stock is acting.
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Post by rickag on May 5, 2015 9:25:39 GMT -8
I like this strategy, hope you keep us informed. I rolled out even further and got some more credit. Now holding 122 puts that 5/22. Same strategy. I don't mind being assigned shares at 122 with wwdc and buyback on tap Hope you don't mind my asking. I think you mentioned you no longer held AAPL stock?? Just curious, did you sell an equal number of shares of AAPL to cover the puts you sold or a percentage of your shares based on the price you sold at? For example using just 1 option and made up numbers. If AAPL was at $135 and you sold $125 puts, to honor your put you would need $12500 to cover by selling ~ 93 shares, or Did you sell 100 shares at $135 regardless of your put obligation? I would have thought rolling out and down would have cost you some of your premium on the first transaction and not resulted in more premium, what am I missing?
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Post by rob_london on May 5, 2015 9:32:29 GMT -8
I am seeing commentary on a few boards and blogs about AAPL R&D being up significantly and whispers about "something big" being up. Guesses are cars (self driving) - the ever elusive TV - and a myriad of other things. That being said you would never know it given with how the stock is acting. This was discussed on the board yesterday, based on a post by Neil Cybart: www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2015/5/3/significant-rd-increase-suggests-apple-is-working-on-something-bigIf anything materialises from this R&D expenditure, it could be literally years away.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 5, 2015 10:04:29 GMT -8
I completely missed it ... guess the other boards are playing catch up. Thank you!
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on May 5, 2015 10:31:38 GMT -8
I like this strategy, hope you keep us informed. I rolled out even further and got some more credit. Now holding 122 puts that 5/22. Same strategy. I don't mind being assigned shares at 122 with wwdc and buyback on tap I've been using puts similarly. Right now short some Jan '16 64.29s (450s) since the beginning of 2014. Also has some Feb somethings expire worthless. And also short some May 15 115s. Soon will probably sell some June's or July's as well.
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Post by nagrani on May 5, 2015 10:50:34 GMT -8
I rolled out even further and got some more credit. Now holding 122 puts that 5/22. Same strategy. I don't mind being assigned shares at 122 with wwdc and buyback on tap Hope you don't mind my asking. I think you mentioned you no longer held AAPL stock?? Just curious, did you sell an equal number of shares of AAPL to cover the puts you sold or a percentage of your shares based on the price you sold at? For example using just 1 option and made up numbers. If AAPL was at $135 and you sold $125 puts, to honor your put you would need $12500 to cover by selling ~ 93 shares, or Did you sell 100 shares at $135 regardless of your put obligation? I would have thought rolling out and down would have cost you some of your premium on the first transaction and not resulted in more premium, what am I missing? Just selling puts naked. If price is below strike price at maturity - I will be the shares via assignment.
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Post by rob_london on May 5, 2015 11:52:45 GMT -8
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 12:02:06 GMT -8
So disgusting that NFLX gets a price upgrade based on one OPINION and the stock jumps $10 amidst a sea of red. Meanwhile, AAPL reports an ACTUAL earnings blockbuster and it trades $10 lower after a week.
What a F'd up market -- I have more respect for casinos, which have cameras to film cheating.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 5, 2015 12:02:41 GMT -8
This is shameful.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 5, 2015 12:57:43 GMT -8
Someone on another message board wrote: "no real damage done, but we better not go lower."
That sums about my feeling too. If we bounce here, great -- it's right at the same support it's been for the last 3 months. If it breaks that, oy vey.
I think it *should* bounce here, because going down to low 120s or something just feels extremely low from a PE standpoint given the growth rates were seeing. But lord knows we've experienced worse irrationality...
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Post by phoebear611 on May 5, 2015 13:11:42 GMT -8
I feel like the parent at the next table when there is a brat sitting at dinner at the table next to us...."Where are the parents? WTF are they doing about this?" So to this I say...WTF is AAPL? What are they doing? Are they buying? There "should be" a strong bid out there....somewhere....sort of like the Tooth-Fairy. She's real right?
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Post by macwire on May 5, 2015 13:24:44 GMT -8
We are broken and technically running out of "time" to reverse back out of this downtrend. Mix in a seemingly topping market and we could be in for a disappointing summer, stock price wise.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
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Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2015 13:53:24 GMT -8
Why care so much about the very short term price of AAPL?
Personally, while I'd like AAPL to be in the $140-145 range now, really I expect that later in the year. If there in late August, I can then sell a few shares at LTCG rates (all my shares were called away in August due to a bull call spread that had both sides ITM, and someone trying to capture the dividend). And while a little higher than that would be nice, given the past 2 years I don't expect it to break $150 by then.
OTOH, things are still non-bearish for AAPL as long as AAPL holds $124.5 or so, and it might be able to handle a little lower. It can do that, and still stay at or below $127 for all those calls to expire...or "they" can just cover or close at or below that price. But if the stock stays in a tight range for a bit, that lowers costs of Calls, so those bullish with conviction can load up. Like I said before, I wouldn't mind selling some shares in my Roth and buying spreads. I'd prefer a RSI below 40, but it hasn't stayed there long, and it looks like it's been almost 4 months since that level. And an RSI of 30, where I'd be ready to be a huge buyer....well, that's been even longer and I hope to be in an even better position to take advantage of that, sometime in the distant future. Right now there's no reason for AAPL to go that low, unless overall markets shrink dramatically.
Instead of worrying about the daily movements of AAPL too much, there's plenty of other things to do or deal with. Personally a puking 4 year old (4 days in, on a 5 day flu that's running about) is much more of a concern to me than AAPL moving in the opposite way than it should that if all were logical in the stock market. But support for AAPL is there somewhere, and I wouldn't be shocked if today and tomorrow is like Thursday and Friday.
I'm ready for Friday....how about you?
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