coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on May 20, 2015 15:38:18 GMT -8
Long time, no see . . .
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Post by artman1033 on May 20, 2015 15:46:21 GMT -8
Hello all See you on Twitter or back here sometime. Just not much going on right now in Apple/AAPL-land. 16 days between posts is SIMPLY UNACCEPTABLE... EVERY two days is the bare minimum!!!!
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 20, 2015 15:47:02 GMT -8
I'm happy. We closed GREEN. I'm showing close @ $130.06. Down a penny. I stand corrected.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 20, 2015 15:48:24 GMT -8
Hi Mav - nice to see you pop in. Was just thinking about you and wondering why you hadn't dropped by in so long. Anything new? Anything shaking out there?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on May 20, 2015 16:24:40 GMT -8
Hello all GAWD THIS SIDEWAYS AAPL TRADE IS THE WORST I agree! At least give us a brief dip so I can sell some puts and buy some BCS!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
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Post by 4aapl on May 20, 2015 17:20:02 GMT -8
I agree! At least give us a brief dip so I can sell some puts and buy some BCS! Did you expect anything different? We've been stuck in a range, though one that is creeping up. With the large OI on 130's, it seemed likely 130 would be a mark this week. And sure enough, it's gotten a little above, and a little below, but closing 2 days in a row at just a few pennies above 130 kinda says something. If it were always this easy, and always this consistent, then making money on it would be easy. Good job JD! I doubt it will hold all the way to Friday. Those past weeks closed near the mark on Thursday, and then jumped on Friday. But it feels like that is getting predictable, so I wouldn't be shocked by things moving by a day. But, the catalyst of WWDC is coming. I'd feel better on a short term bullish position with that coming up. Not that I expect anything from WWDC for investors. But it's happened before, so people are likely to think that it could happen again, and thus a run up into nothing. After that, there might be a buying opportunity dip. But at some point AAPL is likely to jump another 10 points, and then stick in a range again. It will happen....sometime. It's not quite as predictable as MWSF used to be, but it's one of those things that watching it for enough years, you know it's more probable than not. Even if not betting on it, it might to understand it.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on May 20, 2015 19:13:57 GMT -8
I agree! At least give us a brief dip so I can sell some puts and buy some BCS! Did you expect anything different? Well, I'm still thinking that there's some reasonable probability that Greece defaulting followed by the EU having to "do something" might spook the markets a bit and maybe allow for a few hundred (or even a thousand if we're lucky) point downdraft in the DJIA. And that kind of downdraft will surely pull Apple down with it ... at least long enough for me to enter some positions I will have queued up by then. Also, Russia may do stuff to spook the markets, and if the Iraq deal (bad as it is) collapses, that might also spook the markets a bit. Hey, as we've all seen plenty of times, all you need is a little more chaos in the world and the market can spook easily. Add rising rates to the mix and who knows, maybe we'll even get a 10% correction that we haven't seen in lots of years. I don't really care about this week. I'm thinking July 120 or 125 puts, but I want some decent premium on them before I sell them. If I can sell 125s at 3, I am quite willing to buy stock at a net cost of 122 in July. I just glanced at some quotes and the August 125 puts look pretty attractive, BUT that puts a window of 3 months risk on the trade and only lowers my net buy price to 121 if it comes to that. I still haven't decided exactly. Heck if I wait long enough, it'll be the Augusts by default My best guess is that by mid-fall we will traverse the 130s, but I have no guess where it'll stop. I say fall because summer is usually quiet trading with a bias to the downside. My biggest decision come fall will be when to sell all the older calls and bull call spreads that I own. I've already learned my lesson NOT to wait until January when they are expiring. The other decision will be when and how much (and what combination of straight calls versus BCSs) of the Jan '18s to buy.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
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Post by 4aapl on May 20, 2015 20:25:16 GMT -8
Add rising rates to the mix and who knows, maybe we'll even get a 10% correction that we haven't seen in lots of years. I'd kept a story unread for a week about high rates of margin (compared to GDP) foretelling a drop. While only on the 20 year comparison, the other 2 times it's been this bad there's been negative GDP growth in the coming 3 years. I don't think 2 times makes a trend, and I don't think the GDP is ready for losses, but I could see this making a 5% drop turn into a 8-10% drop. It's good to have those once in a while, and it does give a good chance to get in if you have the discipline to wait, and to get in. It sounds like you've done better at that than me, so keep up the good work and I'll try to improve. I say fall because summer is usually quiet trading with a bias to the downside. It all depends. Often, yes. But we've had some good summers too, normally starting mid-summer. Last day of June 2013 was the 2nd bottom, and then a good move up. And what was it, maybe 2010? But there's been flatness....2004 or so comes to mind, just because I got a coworker to buy and we didn't see a rise into MacWorld Boston. But she held on and did well with it. Ohhhhh.....and 2000 wasn't that good, coming off the high in April to settle lower, before the fall 2000 madness. Just one of those things that while there have been a lot of quiet summers, there's also been some good ones....and a few not so good ones. So there might be medians to work off of, but not averages or a solid "every time" rule. I don't really think the pre-earnings run-up, both the week before and our move about 115 or so, really bakes in all of the current earnings. OTOH, there's still worries about things like the watch, and with the iPhone being so much of earnings one can always wonder about that (is it going to keep selling this well? If so many are buying the 6, what about the 6s (we'll be getting it, so there's 2). It's all just worries/excuses, but that's one reason the stock is at a P/E of 16 instead of 17+. Anyway, I think it's not really baked in, so if things can not get too bad in the world, and if something confirms good or better sales of the watch once it's shipping at full speed, or maybe even something even more great with Apple pay, we could see that jump up to the 17-17.5 level. It's only $8-10-12 or so, but then you'd pounding in 138-140 as support to use in the future.
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