Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jul 9, 2015 2:11:21 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Asia is higher. Europe is higher. US Futures are higher. AAPL is higher. GREEN everywhere. AAPL is trading at 123.69 +1.12 (0.91%). It would be nice to recover yesterday's loss. And then some. Not much in the news: the WSJ [$] updated Apple Plans Record Number of New iPhones. Probably as insightful to read PED's analysis of it WSJ: Apple has ordered 85-90 million iPhones. We'll see what the day brings. Have a great one. Let's make money.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jul 9, 2015 2:37:55 GMT -8
With regard to reddit.
I certainly didn't mean to denigrate the site as a whole or the content links it contains. Reddit is one of my primary sources of information and of the links I post here.
My caution was directed at the commentary and voting on reddit. Unfortunately the site hosts some rather 'hostile' activity; voting brigades, censorship (organized and informal), and shall we say 'political correctness' to the point that divergent views are simply not tolerated, e.g. /r/politics.
Perhaps that is the nature of a thriving community, but, then again, we rarely have it here nor is it at some reddit alternatives such as VOAT. Indeed, in the last few weeks I find myself gravitating to VOAT first and reddit second.
At any rate, I have no problem with any source, or even quoting commentary from other sources. I have done both. My caution was to be aware of your source(s) when making investment decisions. Some sources of their own agendas and they are not always what they appear to be.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jul 9, 2015 3:52:48 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 9, 2015 4:00:23 GMT -8
I hope this gets as much play as the original Arends FUD. Edit: Sorry, Since84, I didn't see your post of this so I went to the computer to put it up. Back to bed for an hour. www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/09/the-apple-watch-hysteria-is-out-of-control.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001The Apple Watch Hysteria Is Out of ControlIs Apple Watch demand really a huge disappointment? A significant swath of the Wall Street analyst community and financial press seem determined to prove that the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Watch is a failure: even if it means ignoring key facts and context.
A story by MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends with the blaring headline "Apple Watch Sales Plunge 90%" epitomizes this attitude. There was a nugget of truth behind Arends' headline -- a sales estimate from Slice Intelligence -- but it was ripped out of context in order to mislead readers.
The big claim The MarketWatch story picked up on data from Slice Intelligence, which has been monitoring U.S. Apple Watch sales by tracking e-receipts sent to a large sample of consumers. The story noted that "Apple has been selling fewer than 20,000 watches a day in the U.S. since the initial surge in April, and on some days fewer than 10,000 ..."
Even if Apple were selling 20,000 Watch units every day, that would equal 140,000 per week. This compares to Slice Intelligence's estimate that Apple sold 1.4 million Apple Watches in the U.S. during the first week of pre-sale availability: hence the claim that sales were down by 90%.
Arends did caution that it was understandable for sales volume to fall after the initial rush. But by then, he had already made it clear that the "point" of the article was that Apple Watch sales were plummeting. To make matters worse, he went on to claim that this was an ominous sign, writing: "Investors are used to seeing new products, such as the iPhone and iPad, fly off the shelves as soon as they are launched."
Apple Watch demand still healthy First of all, the data from Slice Intelligence says more about the vast crowd of early adopters than about a lack of ongoing demand.
As noted above, the firm estimated that Apple sold 1.4 million Apple Watches during the first week of online availability (which began on April 10). After that initial surge, Slice's data shows weekly sales staying fairly steady in a range of roughly 150,000-175,000 per week through the week of May 31. That suggests Apple had sold another 1 million or so Apple Watches by the end of May.
It was only in June that Apple Watch sales in the U.S. apparently plummeted to 100,000 or less per week. Even so, domestic sales for the quarter reached perhaps 2.8 million units, according to the Slice Intelligence data.
But Apple only got 38% of its revenue from the U.S. in its most recent fiscal year. Last quarter's Apple Watch sales may be skewed more toward the U.S. because the device only launched in a few markets in April. That said, those markets also included Apple's biggest international markets, such as China, Japan, and the U.K.
If there was a 50/50 split between the U.S. and foreign markets for Apple Watch sales last quarter, that would imply global Apple Watch sales of about 5.5 million units. That's near the upper end of the range of analysts' sales estimates for the Watch.
Blowing away iPhone sales If Arends is right that investors are accustomed to new Apple products "flying off the shelves," that's only because investors have faulty memories. Between the launch weekend and first full quarter of sales of the original iPhone, Apple sold just 1.4 million units globally. If you believe Slice Intelligence's data, Apple sold that many Watches just in the U.S. within a week, and total Apple Watch sales for the quarter could be about four times that number.
Meanwhile, Apple sold 3.3 million iPads in the quarter when that product category launched five years ago. Of course, iPhone and iPad sales have soared far higher in subsequent years -- but as the Apple Watch improves, it could also grow in popularity.
Is the drop even real? Thus, even if Slice Intelligence's data is accurate, Apple Watch demand has been perfectly healthy so far. Launch quarter sales may outpace iPad launch quarter sales by a sizable margin, just as the iPad got off to a faster start than the iPhone.
Yet it's possible that the "90% slowdown" picked up by Slice Intelligence (and fixated upon by the MarketWatch column) is partially an artifact of its data-collection method. It's surprising that Apple Watch sales would have held steady around 150,000-175,000 per week for a month and a half before suddenly plunging to half that level.
However, the Apple Watch started to become available in stores in mid-June. As of June 17, Apple allowed customers in the U.S. to reserve the Apple Watch online for an in-store demo and (hopefully) purchase. Recall that Slice Intelligence tracks sales volume via e-receipts. While Apple does send e-receipts for many in-store purchases, it's possible that a shift in customer buying behavior (in favor of the Apple Store rather than online) is making the drop in Apple Watch sales look worse than it is.
We won't know for sure how the Apple Watch is doing until Apple reports June quarter earnings later this month. Even then we might not find out much, as Apple hasn't committed to providing unit sales data. But Apple Watch pessimists should at least wait until Apple gets a word in before condemning the Watch as a failure.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 9, 2015 5:44:36 GMT -8
I know TC isn't going to break out the Apple Watch sales but I do hope he devotes some good time to it and gives everyone a good picture - a good outlook - and hopefully a good feeling on how it's going. I think it would be helpful to do so other than to say it's been wonderful and the interest has been just great. I think the public needs a wee bit more to sink their teeth into. Granted Bezos never did crap to let the world know about how Kindle was doing or anything else for that matter and Wall Street never punished him. Quite the opposite, they rewarded him handsomely. HOWEVER, we all know Apple is held to a much higher and WAY DIFFERENT standard (FAIR? - NOPE) but nonetheless - it is. So I'm hoping TC is crafting his speech and making it inspiring. Everyone already is aware that this is a work in progress and that the fall will have some new software that I'm hoping will make this watch "unliveable" to be without (for me at least). So I'm hoping he can hint at something...or perhaps the depth of the demand or ANYTHING that would help dispell the BS that has been floating around these last few days.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 9, 2015 5:57:43 GMT -8
Just wondering about that blackout period thing... can Apple still buy back its shares at this point with ER around the corner?
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Post by hledgard on Jul 9, 2015 6:05:03 GMT -8
I recall that Apple tried quite hard to have both blood sugar monitoring and blood pressure monitoring on the watch, and they backed off because of technical problems in actually doing this. This is a hard problem, but potentially a MAJOR app, either one.
Does anyone have new insight on this, or is the matter basically impossible with just a watch?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 9, 2015 6:08:35 GMT -8
I know TC isn't going to break out the Apple Watch sales but I do hope he devotes some good time to it and gives everyone a good picture - a good outlook - and hopefully a good feeling on how it's going. I think it would be helpful to do so other than to say it's been wonderful and the interest has been just great. I think the public needs a wee bit more to sink their teeth into. Granted Bezos never did crap to let the world know about how Kindle was doing or anything else for that matter and Wall Street never punished him. Quite the opposite, they rewarded him handsomely. HOWEVER, we all know Apple is held to a much higher and WAY DIFFERENT standard (FAIR? - NOPE) but nonetheless - it is. So I'm hoping TC is crafting his speech and making it inspiring. Everyone already is aware that this is a work in progress and that the fall will have some new software that I'm hoping will make this watch "unliveable" to be without (for me at least). So I'm hoping he can hint at something...or perhaps the depth of the demand or ANYTHING that would help dispell the BS that has been floating around these last few days. I think when the Other Products line item is parsed to show about 5.5 million watches were sold at an ASP of $550 ( or higher....band sales are a real goofy unknown...I know people with four) there will be plenty of questions in the CC about existing demand. We will hear about "fastest growing new category", "now available in twenty countries and fifty by year end, etc" . I'd like some color here too....and about China, which certainly must be addressed. Apple has a lot of cash and spews more every quarter...hope the buyback has been aggressive. If we have a P/E of 12 ex-cash...growing 40% YOY, something has to give. By the wat, T-mobile chief John Legere on CNBC in about twenty minutes. I love that wild man!
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Post by BillH on Jul 9, 2015 6:16:34 GMT -8
I recall that Apple tried quite hard to have both blood sugar monitoring and blood pressure monitoring on the watch, and they backed off because of technical problems in actually doing this. This is a hard problem, but potentially a MAJOR app, either one. Does anyone have new insight on this, or is the matter basically impossible with just a watch? I don't know the truth of it but there wasn't any proof that it was true. We know for sure that Apple met more than a few times with the FDA to insure that it's watch wasn't subject to approval and that it's working on reforms to allow more functionality without being subject to unnecessary oversight.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 9, 2015 6:33:09 GMT -8
We are in the "Quiet Period" more or less for buy backs due to earnings but again, it is NOT a law or rule that the Company has to absolutely stop buying shares during this period ... It's halted in the "spirit" of the rule. These days I wonder if Corporations are aggressive enough to enter into various structures that would have them buy shares without giving the say so. Certainly the structures exist and have existed but I don't know if Apple participates. Just think if they sold puts at a certain strike for the time during the so-called "quiet period" that exercised automatically if the strike price was touched. That would be one way.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 9, 2015 6:45:11 GMT -8
Red - I love Legere too! He shakes things up - gotta love him.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Jul 9, 2015 7:08:18 GMT -8
Re Slice, I just do not understand the logic of trying to estimate changes in demand by monitoring sales of a product that is in limited supply.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 9, 2015 7:24:33 GMT -8
Everything bouncing strong except for AAPL - it's up less on a % basis than any other stock I track.
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Post by deasys on Jul 9, 2015 7:46:55 GMT -8
I recall that Apple tried quite hard to have both blood sugar monitoring and blood pressure monitoring on the watch, and they backed off because of technical problems in actually doing this. This is a hard problem, but potentially a MAJOR app, either one. Does anyone have new insight on this, or is the matter basically impossible with just a watch? It appears to be a very challenging problem. This article provides some background: Why the iWatch won't measure glucose levels
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Jul 9, 2015 9:05:31 GMT -8
This sideways action for the past few months feels a lot like the slide from 700 to 400. Day after day of irrational reactions to very thin FUD, failure to respond to good news like last quarter's earnings or the 90 million phones ordered, and no movement on analysts upgrades. I think this is what 2012-2013 would have looked like if Apple had been doing buybacks.
It is so easy to get used to opening up the portfolio and seeing a 5-10K gain each day that sideways feels like losing. Thanks to everyone here for helping me focus on the long term
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Post by macwire on Jul 9, 2015 9:06:47 GMT -8
Curse of the Dow continues.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jul 9, 2015 9:09:08 GMT -8
Can't believe AAPL is red while the rest of the market is up.
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Post by dmiller on Jul 9, 2015 9:10:16 GMT -8
Was in an Apple Store today trying the 12" MacBook for the first time. Extremely impressed - yes, typing is different, but no real issues. The thinness and screen quality are fantastic. More horsepower would be nice but it's acceptable.
Would probably just buy it in-store and walk out with it immediately, but there's no stock, it has to be ordered and shipped either directly (2-3 weeks) or to the store. Deal breaker because I'd be taking it on a hiking trip in a little more than a week.
Really don't understand why availability of this isn't better at this point....
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 9, 2015 9:33:17 GMT -8
Mace - nagrani - mac wire - I'm almost afraid to ask what you fellas are seeing out there on your charts - or any others I missed who follow technicals
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jul 9, 2015 9:34:35 GMT -8
I'm wondering if I missed something in the news...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 9, 2015 9:35:43 GMT -8
Can't believe AAPL is red while the rest of the market is up. The FUD has sunken in with both retail and institutional investors: Apples future is in doubt. Between the "inevitable" tapering of iPhone growth and the lack of a future product to replace it (because of "disappointing" watch sales), Apple's best days are behind it. And it doesn't even matter if they post another 40% growth quarter because the next few quarters of "tough compares" means EPS growth will soon be over. The only thing that counters this kind of FUD is the shock of blowout numbers and guidance, which hopefully will put an end to the nonsense in a couple weeks
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2015 9:37:52 GMT -8
AAPL is a good proxy on how F'd up the stock market is, with the FUD, the myopic analysts, the financial ignorance out there.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2015 9:46:19 GMT -8
It would not surprise me some hedge fund(s) is pressuring a selloff in order to squeeze retail money out with margin calls, dropping it further to buy in before earnings. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but I am not so naive to rule out manipulation here.
I BTFD but I'm done with it.
WS needs to be scraped and rebuilt but the big boys like the current playing field.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 9, 2015 9:55:42 GMT -8
Getting to oversold conditions from an RSI perspective - should see a big bounce in the next few days. IMO
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jz
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"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
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Post by jz on Jul 9, 2015 10:06:43 GMT -8
Can't believe AAPL is red while the rest of the market is up. There is inconsequential FUD and there is justified FUD... JustiFUD. In relation to AAPL earnings, Greece is inconsequential, while China is justiFUD. I sold ALL my AAPL yesterday based on my belief that it is probable that Wall Street becomes even more cautious about AAPL being 'Too big to grow' in an environment where consumers in their biggest-growth market may be facing significantly shrinking disposable income. AAPL is more exposed to China than the market at large, thus possibly explaining its red in the face of other market green today. I'm betting that if the bearishness of this China justiFUD Is overcome, it will only be in the rear view mirror of FUD-dispelling solid fall and winter earnings... July numbers will not dispel the justiFUD as they predate the China correction, possible crash. I am on the sidelines until the dust settles and I can see where AAPL is headed or we are presented (again) with a ridiculously low PE.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 9, 2015 10:15:23 GMT -8
Here's the chart I've been watching: stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p45625789817&a=289282989From a technical perspective, AAPL is very broken unless it bounces right here. It's already dropped below all the moving averages and the upward-moving channel it's been in for a year. Now it's broken just below the March lows. Yes RSI is oversold, but that's easy to get past with some weak bounces before more selling. To really come back in the short term, it feels like it needs to bounce hard right here...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2015 10:33:50 GMT -8
Can't believe AAPL is red while the rest of the market is up. There is inconsequential FUD and there is justified FUD... JustiFUD. In relation to AAPL earnings, Greece is inconsequential, while China is justiFUD. I sold ALL my AAPL yesterday based on my belief that it is probable that Wall Street becomes even more cautious about AAPL being 'Too big to grow' in an environment where consumers in their biggest-growth market may be facing significantly shrinking disposable income. AAPL is more exposed to China than the market at large, thus possibly explaining its red in the face of other market green today. I'm betting that if the bearishness of this China justiFUD Is overcome, it will only be in the rear view mirror of FUD-dispelling solid fall and winter earnings... July numbers will not dispel the justiFUD as they predate the China correction, possible crash. I am on the sidelines until the dust settles and I can see where AAPL is headed or we are presented (again) with a ridiculously low PE. Can't blame you for pulling the trigger to get out. Agree with you re: Greece and China, although as noted in The Economist, only a minority of Chinese are even in the stock market, so the exposure of discretionary spending among regular Chinese is probably overstated. Nonetheless, the risk of FUD to AAPL is very real. Perception is reality. As a celebrity company, clickbait journalism has really hurt Apple/AAPL and until the business model for journalism changes, negative news reigns supreme. Hard to say what's really going on, but it appears not even open interest is going to save AAPL this week.
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Post by macwire on Jul 9, 2015 10:35:56 GMT -8
Ever seen a cat eat cat litter then puke it out?
That's what the chart looks like
Avoid.
If you're buying you are trying to catch a falling knife. Good luck to you.
AAPL proving the flip side of the coin to China being its biggest consumer now...
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 9, 2015 10:37:02 GMT -8
Decent article but the 3 comments at the bottom are more than decent. Alan Laviana, Zippero Oppero and Thomas Wyrick should be tech analysts since they seem to have much more of a clue than most when it comes to Apple. At the very least they should be members of this board, IMO. www.wsj.com/articles/apples-early-iphone-call-1436461716Apple’s Early iPhone Call By DAN GALLAGHER Reports of a bigger production run show Apple is bullish on next model What does Apple know that Wall Street doesn’t?
That is the main question that arises from a report by The Wall Street Journal that Apple is stepping up production plans for its next iPhone, even compared with the record-busting launch of the iPhone 6. The company has reportedly told its manufacturing partners to prepare for an initial production run in the range of 85 million to 90 million units of the new iPhone models by Dec. 31. Last year’s initial production plan for the iPhone 6 called for between 70 million to 80 million units. If it hews to past practice, Apple will announce its new iPhones in early September ahead of a retail launch later in the month. The new iPhones are expected to be more incremental updates with the same body design as the iPhone 6, similar to the 5S and 4S versions. Because of that, Wall Street’s projections for the next iPhone cycle are pretty subdued. Analysts expect iPhone unit sales to grow by only 1% for Apple’s 2016 fiscal year, according to FactSet. That compares with 36% growth projected for the current fiscal year, which ends in September. Much can change with Apple’s production plans in the next two months. But if Apple’s more-upbeat view holds, it’s an indication the company sees more potential growth drivers for its smartphone.China is a likely factor; iPhone sales in that market surged more than 70% year over year during the March quarter. A survey of Chinese customers by CLSA found 60% of iPhone owners are currently using iPhone 5S or older, indicating a large potential base for upgrades to the next model. Some may worry the turmoil in China’s stock market of late could crimp demand for high-end products such as the iPhone. That’s a risk, though Credit Suisse noted Thursday that equities represent less than 10% of household wealth in China, compared with nearly 30% in the U.S.
If so, Apple’s sales call might just get answered. There are 3 comments.===================== ALAN LAVIANA 39 minutes ago "What does AppleAAPL-0.53% know that Wall Street doesn’t?"There's not enough space available to do a comment justice.Suffice to say watch the earnings, you'll know shortly. ===================== Zippero Oppero 1 hour ago Only 20% of iPhone owners worldwide have upgraded to the iPhone 6 or 6 Plus, so to think iPhone sales will grow only 1% in 2016 is pretty clueless on Wall Street's part. Even during the height of the Samsung Galaxy S3 onslaught in 2012-2013, iPhone sales and Apple's free cash flow were both still growing by double digits and, since that nadir, Apple's stock has risen over 100%. And in 2017, current iPhone 6 owners will be upgrading to the iPhone 7. And in 2018, iPhone 6S owners will get the iPhone 7S or iPhone 8. And so on.===================== Thomas Wyrick 1 hour ago "The company has reportedly told its manufacturing partners to prepare for an initial production run in the range of 85 million to 90 million units of the new iPhone models by Dec. 31. Last year’s initial production plan for the iPhone 6 called for between 70 million to 80 million units.... Analysts expect iPhone unit sales to grow by only 1% for Apple’s 2016 fiscal year." That's an increase of about 12.5-21.4% in planned iPhone production, while analysts are estimating 1% unit sales growth and a 4% earnings increase. =====================
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Post by rmhe1999 on Jul 9, 2015 10:39:57 GMT -8
Ever seen a cat eat cat litter then puke it out? That's what the chart looks like Avoid. If you're buying you are trying to catch a falling knife. Good luck to you. AAPL proving the flip side of the coin to China being its biggest consumer now... I tried to catch the falling knife! I believe I've been cut; off to the ER to nurse my wounds...
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