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Post by mstrmac on Oct 18, 2012 13:13:07 GMT -8
I think whats his name just lost some cred. oh well.....who am i though, not a regular, just a interested camper. logging out.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Oct 18, 2012 13:15:14 GMT -8
3.1 million does suggest that the total iphone number for the qtr should be above 25 mil. GOOF, er, I mean GOOG makes for good drama but I'm more interested in the VZ numbers today, and what they might predict. Last Q, VZ comprised 10% of Apple's iPhone unit sales (2.7 M of 26 M). Yesterday I visited a flagship VZ store in my area and was surprised to see how little floor space they devote to Apple. The iPhone and iPad were pushed to the back corner of the store. It's astonishing that a product that generates almost half its sales is given less than a quarter of its floor space, and the worst floor space at that. But back to the point. Sales of the iPhone 5 this Q will be weighted I think toward early adopters. You know who you are. You are the ones who were up past midnight waiting to jump online the moment the iPhone 5 went up for order. I suspect AT&T has more early adopters (crazed fanatics) because it was the sole provider of iPhones for some time. Is this something Apple would have forseen? If so, did they allot more iPhone 5s to AT&T? Clearly, VZ sold every iPhone 5 it was given. The question then becomes, Did Apple give more iPhone 5s to AT&T? The sale of 2.45 million iPhone 4 and 4s units (3.1 - .65) equals a 10% decline in sales of those models from the previous quarter. This is a very good number, much less of a decline than I expected. I'm not sure it will hold true through all carriers, but if it does, Apple could crush estimates this Q. The next question is whether or not the 650K iPhone 5 units reported will be predictive of 6.5 million sold. This depends on how Apple allocated the limited amounts to the various carriers. My parents ordered 2 iPhone 5s from Verizon the weekend it was released. The delivery date came and went without a word. My mother called Verizon to see when they would arrive and was told they cancelled the order because the sales representative had not filed the necessary paperwork. One would think they would at least call the customer. My mother very politely asked them to place the order again. While anecdotal, it is a telling story.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 13:16:43 GMT -8
On September 18, when Apple was about $700 plus, I wrote a post here saying that I believed that there was a high probability that Apple would drop 10% to 12% in the near term, and that I was about to start watching the stock carefully on a day by day basis. I of course gave reasons for my view, which the moderator of this forum said struck her as useful. Within minutes, I was vehemently attacked for expressing this view by certain regulars, especially somebody named JD. In response, I suggested that participating in this forum was pointless, and my account, under the name goodwine, was deleted. Meanwhile, on September 20, I got out of call options on the stock but retained long term holdings. During the brief period of this discussion, some people expressed the view that it might be useful if people were permitted to express bearish views without being attacked. They were, and are, right. Meanwhile, I am seeing on this forum the same thing that I see every time that Apple has a reversal. A fair bit of panic, a good deal of it expressed as attacks on anyone in sight who might have a negative view, even if short term, on the stock. The truth is, there was plenty of reason in mid-September to believe that Apple stock was in for a rough ride. I don't mind that people disagreed with that analysis, but I do mind that I was attacked for expressing it. Meanwhile, perhaps it is worth considering that many of the posts in reaction to Apple's performance in the last month demonstrate a great deal of emotionalism. I have made bearish observations here and at the old place -- even before I was a moderator over there -- and no one has ever attacked me. That said, I know others have had issues; perhaps it has something to do with the delivery? I didn't mind your analysis in the least; in fact, I thought you made excellent points and said as much. I very much minded, however, when YOU started making personal attacks that were escalating in vitriol -- first perhaps playing defense, but then clearly on offense. Would love to have you back if I don't have to deal with breaking up food fights in the cafeteria.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 18, 2012 13:17:59 GMT -8
Ditto - and they do that A LOT! Sad part is I became happy thinking that MSFT beating good was going to be good for the market tomorrow. Throw that out the window. That was exactly my thought as well. But I just wish someone would get out in front of the media and explain how mobile and tablets have turned technology and the PC world upside down and the biggest driving force is AAPL. I mean not once has anyone said that they are THE DISRUPTORS! Damn!
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Oct 18, 2012 13:22:27 GMT -8
On September 18, when Apple was about $700 plus, I wrote a post here saying that I believed that there was a high probability that Apple would drop 10% to 12% in the near term, and that I was about to start watching the stock carefully on a day by day basis. I of course gave reasons for my view, which the moderator of this forum said struck her as useful. Within minutes, I was vehemently attacked for expressing this view by certain regulars, especially somebody named JD. In response, I suggested that participating in this forum was pointless, and my account, under the name goodwine, was deleted. Meanwhile, on September 20, I got out of call options on the stock but retained long term holdings. During the brief period of this discussion, some people expressed the view that it might be useful if people were permitted to express bearish views without being attacked. They were, and are, right. The fact is, I was the only person on this forum, which I have followed for a long time, to say that there was a serious short term prospect of a 10 to 12 percent reduction in share value. In fact, at the time, I was the only person to suggest that there was any significant prospect of a reduction in share value. Meanwhile, I am seeing on this forum the same thing that I see every time that Apple has a reversal. A fair bit of panic, a good deal of it expressed as attacks on anyone in sight who might have a negative view, even if short term, on the stock. The truth is, there was plenty of reason in mid-September to believe that Apple stock was in for a rough ride. I don't mind that people disagreed with that analysis, but I do mind that I was attacked for expressing it. Meanwhile, perhaps it is worth considering that many of the posts in reaction to Apple's performance in the last month demonstrate a great deal of emotionalism. I hope you'll stay and continue to offer you're viewpoint, popular or not. I welcome all views as a sanity check on my own.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 13:23:30 GMT -8
I've always said, bull or bear, I don't care, just back it up. I don't think that too much to ask of a forum intensely focused on AAPL trading (and *cough* fundamentals, right? Right? )
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Post by traitorjoe on Oct 18, 2012 13:29:24 GMT -8
Thursday, October 18, 4:56 PM Google (GOOG) states on its Q3 earnings call (webcast, live blog) its mobile business (ads + Google Play) is now on an $8B/year run rate. A year ago, the company noted its mobile ad business was on a $2.5B/year run rate
What a cherry pick by Larry - Duh-you are growing mobile , but what is $ profit & margin% vs PC ? How fast is PC search declining ? How much will you lose on Motorola next 12 months ? How much will you lose selling tablets and android OS at cost ? What is risk of being investigated for privacy and anti trust issues here and in Europe ?
Given all the above- how smart is it to invest in space ships, google cars and google glasses
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Post by cider on Oct 18, 2012 13:33:19 GMT -8
On September 18, when Apple was about $700 plus, I wrote a post here saying that I believed that there was a high probability that Apple would drop 10% to 12% in the near term, and that I was about to start watching the stock carefully on a day by day basis. I of course gave reasons for my view, which the moderator of this forum said struck her as useful. Within minutes, I was vehemently attacked for expressing this view by certain regulars, especially somebody named JD. In response, I suggested that participating in this forum was pointless, and my account, under the name goodwine, was deleted. Meanwhile, on September 20, I got out of call options on the stock but retained long term holdings. During the brief period of this discussion, some people expressed the view that it might be useful if people were permitted to express bearish views without being attacked. They were, and are, right. Meanwhile, I am seeing on this forum the same thing that I see every time that Apple has a reversal. A fair bit of panic, a good deal of it expressed as attacks on anyone in sight who might have a negative view, even if short term, on the stock. The truth is, there was plenty of reason in mid-September to believe that Apple stock was in for a rough ride. I don't mind that people disagreed with that analysis, but I do mind that I was attacked for expressing it. Meanwhile, perhaps it is worth considering that many of the posts in reaction to Apple's performance in the last month demonstrate a great deal of emotionalism. I have made bearish observations here and at the old place -- even before I was a moderator over there -- and no one has ever attacked me. That said, I know others have had issues; perhaps it has something to do with the delivery? I didn't mind your analysis in the least; in fact, I thought you made excellent points and said as much. I very much minded, however, when YOU started making personal attacks that were escalating in vitriol -- first perhaps playing defense, but then clearly on offense. Would love to have you back if I don't have to deal with breaking up food fights in the cafeteria. I offered an analysis, and a prediction that proved accurate, and should not have been attacked in the first place. JD is a bully, and he was wrong on where the stock was going, and I'm not feeling terribly contrite for defending the fact that I expressed a view, with reasons, that turned out to be right, and he made an ad hominem attack. Let's see how it goes, unless you'd rather not.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 13:35:12 GMT -8
Larry not sounding too great on the CC?
Hard to tell from the AH action.
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Post by cider on Oct 18, 2012 13:47:25 GMT -8
lovemyiapd,
You and other participants really need to decide whether this site is an Apple Rah Rah site or whether it is about pro and con discussion. Right now, it is obviously the former. As an Apple investor, what this means for me is that it is a great site for getting links to the latest information on the company, and getting the views of people who think that Apple/Tim Cook walk on water. but not very useful otherwise.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 13:47:37 GMT -8
Cider, see PM.
RE: the community...it is what it is...the decision to stay or go is yours. Unless you make personal attacks...then it's mine.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 13:59:43 GMT -8
Of the techie leaders, the day's inexplicable crown is once again AMZN. GOOG, FB, IBM, AAPL took hits.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 18, 2012 14:04:26 GMT -8
deleted for the sake of iPad. Carry on.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2012 14:07:49 GMT -8
I think if she had come back as "Apple Cider" instead of just plain ole "Cider" all would be good.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 14:16:07 GMT -8
Chas, I conduct myself that way.
I can't speak for others. iPad makes the rules, not me.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 18, 2012 14:19:14 GMT -8
I've always said, bull or bear, I don't care, just back it up. I don't think that too much to ask of a forum intensely focused on AAPL trading (and *cough* fundamentals, right? Right? ) BS. Sorry Mav, but how can that be when we have folks like Spongie saying it's going to whatever f*cking price he dreamt up that day? No one (except AT in his super sarcastic way) says, "what do you have to back that up?" I could name a boatload of members that do it with no one attacking them. He was attacked first (saying where's your proof is an attack) by the bulls that couldn't stand a bear in their midst. I've seen it too many times at AFB. Nonsense. Hell, JohnG got attacked, where's he been since then? That's how we lose perfectly good members. I WANT someone to challenge my thoughts when I get complacent. O.k., you are not as good looking as you think you are. I agree. We need contrarians. We need to request people who have positions, bull or bear, and choose to say "apple will do the following...."to provide logic, history, charts, fudamentals, macro or micro reasons why they feel they way they do. That is how we learn. But people need to have thick skins too. This is, after all, a debating forum ultimatley.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 14:23:09 GMT -8
Don't be a Kass about it, and you're fine by me.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 14:25:55 GMT -8
My method saying bull or bear is simple. Make a prediction on a number and don't make a big deal about it... because I'm still learning. The market determines my grade.
Mr. Market rocks the boat enough, so I make it a point to not pile on to a bad number.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 14:27:03 GMT -8
For reference: I am essentially flat AAPL right now. Not trading anything. Core common is greater than my capped options trades for AAPL.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 18, 2012 14:29:21 GMT -8
Cider, see PM. RE: the community...it is what it is...the decision to stay or go is yours. Unless you make personal attacks...then it's mine. Agree. Look we are all adults (at least I hope we are) and contrasting views are good. Heck being from the country that views laughing at ones self often is a necessity for a healthy mental well being I could care less about a bit banter. Txt communication is limited and often meaning is misinterpreted BUT it is easy to see if someone has such a miserable existence all they do is look for a fight. I do have a problem with constant personal attacks and targeting ones Mother as crossing the line. Perhaps we could just take it as what it is and at least give someone an alibi or two on their seemingly off post just in case it is a bad day, poor choice of words or written and/or taken out of context. Just my .02 but whatever you decide I'll abide by and if it becomes of no value ill just leave. Thanks to all of you
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 18, 2012 14:43:29 GMT -8
Cider, see PM. RE: the community...it is what it is...the decision to stay or go is yours. Unless you make personal attacks...then it's mine. Agree. Look we are all adults (at least I hope we are) and contrasting views are good. Heck being from the country that views laughing at ones self often is a necessity for a healthy mental well being I could care less about a bit banter. Txt communication is limited and often meaning is misinterpreted BUT it is easy to see if someone has such a miserable existence all they do is look for a fight. I do have a problem with constant personal attacks and targeting ones Mother as crossing the line. Perhaps we could just take it as what it is and at least give someone an alibi or two on their seemingly off post just in case it is a bad day, poor choice of words or written and/or taken out of context. Just my .02 but whatever you decide I'll abide by and if it becomes of no value ill just leave. Thanks to all of you Very well said...and as a mother...I thank you! (My husband always wonders why no one cares when you say something about the father...then I have to explain childbirth to him all over again )
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Post by cider on Oct 18, 2012 14:45:40 GMT -8
Anyway, on Wednesday I'm going to Italy for the winter and will follow this forum as a good way to keep tabs on Apple news stories.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 18, 2012 15:23:08 GMT -8
Anyway, on Wednesday I'm going to Italy for the winter and will follow this forum as a good way to keep tabs on Apple news stories. Don't take this the wrong way - but I hate you and am incredibly jealous! What part?
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 18, 2012 15:38:02 GMT -8
BS. Sorry Mav, but how can that be when we have folks like Spongie saying it's going to whatever f*cking price he dreamt up that day? No one (except AT in his super sarcastic way) says, "what do you have to back that up?" I could name a boatload of members that do it with no one attacking them. He was attacked first (saying where's your proof is an attack) by the bulls that couldn't stand a bear in their midst. I've seen it too many times at AFB. Nonsense. Hell, JohnG got attacked, where's he been since then? That's how we lose perfectly good members. I WANT someone to challenge my thoughts when I get complacent. We are 10% from an all time high. No contrarian needed. Just buy and hold. Duh, Sponge gets it, Nate gets it, most of us get it. With that said, feel free to post whatever the heck position you want on this board, long or short. I've seen plenty of posts in both directions. All the negative stuff re: AAPL is wrong in the long term. If people want to short it and make money in the short term who the heck cares? And who's to say people can't post their dreamed up numbers? Sure, it adds no value financially for me when they do but the comedic value is priceless.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 16:06:42 GMT -8
Small tablets all over Star Trek Voyager. I think they are from the future, circa Oct 2014. Its hard to make out the OS, but there are very light weight. Temporal paradoxes are everywhere. Seven of Nine has been sent back in time. The keyboard on the time ship is especially smooth.
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Post by cider on Oct 18, 2012 16:18:04 GMT -8
Anyway, on Wednesday I'm going to Italy for the winter and will follow this forum as a good way to keep tabs on Apple news stories. Don't take this the wrong way - but I hate you and am incredibly jealous! What part? Hi phoebear, I'll be in Siracusa from October 25 through early December, then from December through March house sitting a castle, with an acre of botanical gardens, near Ispica. Plus I get to take care of an English Setter with the rather improbable name, for a Setter, of Toto I will probably stay in the Mediterranean/North Africa until early May, at which time I figure that after a flight to New York I'll be ready for dinner in your neck of the woods, probably Brooklyn Fare or one of the hipster restaurants in Carroll Gardens
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 16:24:42 GMT -8
I shorted AAPL a bit for cash flow. I don't recall any attacks. iPad shorts AAPL regularly for hedges. Clarification: I hedge with puts and bear spreads. I don't short stock EVER. (And I think Mav does the same -- options, not stock.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 16:26:33 GMT -8
Sorry. People use "short" so often even _I_ use it as shorthand (bad Mav! Bad!) for puts and bear put spreads. "Sell short" is the _real_ dangerous game (I would never, ever sell anything short, unlimited risk is not my thing), but I can understand the confusion.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 18, 2012 16:31:19 GMT -8
For reference: I am essentially flat AAPL right now. Sounding a little Redler-esque there, Mav. That's what he says on his tweets.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 16:32:40 GMT -8
It's kinda creepy, isn't it. All that remains...is to begin to convert Mercel...
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