Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 8, 2015 2:26:00 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 8, 2015 4:55:38 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 8, 2015 5:00:59 GMT -8
OK.
It's post Labor Day. Time to get out of the summer doldrums and breathe some life into this board. It takes energy to launch...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 8, 2015 5:47:08 GMT -8
Up 3.25... Waiting for tomorrow...I want to believe!
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 8, 2015 6:36:34 GMT -8
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 8, 2015 7:12:36 GMT -8
Anyone else expecting a big sales boost for the Apple Watch this holiday season? US consumers need a gift idea to please recipients. I think it will be the Apple Watch this year.
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Post by rickag on Sept 8, 2015 8:05:55 GMT -8
Anyone else expecting a big sales boost for the Apple Watch this holiday season? US consumers need a gift idea to please recipients. I think it will be the Apple Watch this year. How big? If the #s being banded about (~3.6 million) for current sales totals, I would be more than happy if the December quarter doubles that. That would put Apple Watch sales @ over 10 million since introduced.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 8, 2015 8:55:15 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 8, 2015 10:22:59 GMT -8
There is no faith or belief in Apples future priced into the stock. I think we are all hoping that tomorrow's event is the start of a new narrative for the stock.
However, caution is warranted. Usually these events provoke a sell off as soon as they are over...
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Post by rickag on Sept 8, 2015 10:50:18 GMT -8
There is no faith or belief in Apples future priced into the stock. I think we are all hoping that tomorrow's event is the start of a new narrative for the stock. However, caution is warranted. Usually these events provoke a sell off as soon as they are over... Unfortunately it will not matter what is announced tomorrow, the FUD will be deafingly loud.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Sept 8, 2015 10:52:03 GMT -8
There is no faith or belief in Apples future priced into the stock. I think we are all hoping that tomorrow's event is the start of a new narrative for the stock. Apple is the victim of their own success. I just don't see any product coming close to the iPhone financial success story for the foreseeable future, and thus each will be labeled a disappointment. Even the iPhone is basically in competition with itself. Revenues grew by 45% YoY last quarter, yet the stock supposedly got dinged because the iPhone number "missed" guesses (excuse me, "expectations") from a few analysts by under 2%. It has little to do with faith in the future. I mean who a year ago would have believed that such a standout quarterly performance could be labeled "disappointing." The company makes so much money every year that they cannot even find enough ways to spend it all. But as I have pointed out before, if they duplicate this year next year, there is no telling how low the stock would fall. My head says that I need to begin converting my AAPL investment to companies that perform worse, but are better valued. My heart finds it very hard to do so.
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Post by ericinaustin on Sept 8, 2015 11:43:52 GMT -8
There is no faith or belief in Apples future priced into the stock. I think we are all hoping that tomorrow's event is the start of a new narrative for the stock. Apple is the victim of their own success. I just don't see any product coming close to the iPhone financial success story for the foreseeable future, and thus each will be labeled a disappointment. Even the iPhone is basically in competition with itself. Revenues grew by 45% YoY last quarter, yet the stock supposedly got dinged because the iPhone number "missed" guesses (excuse me, "expectations") from a few analysts by under 2%. It has little to do with faith in the future. I mean who a year ago would have believed that such a standout quarterly performance could be labeled "disappointing." The company makes so much money every year that they cannot even find enough ways to spend it all. But as I have pointed out before, if they duplicate this year next year, there is no telling how low the stock would fall. My head says that I need to begin converting my AAPL investment to companies that perform worse, but are better valued. My heart finds it very hard to do so. The logic you are using here makes absolutely no sense. The advantage of a fast growing company with such low value is pretty clear. The rock bottom valuation means that the stock price will almost certainly have to track earnings or we get into another situation like when uncle Carl stepped in. Without stock price appreciation if Apple were to repeat its numbers again next year the p/would be in the 4 to 5 range ex cash. I would argue that this current valuation makes aapl more of a sure thing than just about any other stock you could mention. You just can't sweat the week to week valuations only the quarter to quarter ones and by that metric aapl is doing very well. Any other way then your just gambling not investing
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 8, 2015 11:44:51 GMT -8
Not sure if this Reuters article was posted before, but it really does deserve a Dumb Bunny Award™. Exclusive: Apple ups hiring, but faces obstacles to making phones smarter What nonsense. Some "experts" who like to data mine for Google, maybe. The paragraph above is as if a dumb bunny ate some hay, and then mysteriously pooped out horseshit, instead of pellets. Apple has yet to find an answer for a product Google hasn't released yet? And of course Apple could do blind cloud searches and randomize the data and not use cookies or retain search info. But I guess "experts" haven't heard about https or other encrypted Internet protocols or DuckDuckGo. Good, fuck off nerds, and enjoy working for a dying platform like Android where workers are being laid off. Since when do consumer tech companies let rank-and-file employees dictate policy for customers? I got yer unfettered access right heah! OK, rant over, nice to be green.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 8, 2015 12:00:58 GMT -8
Nice to close GREEN, but a little disappointing if the news is priced in...
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Post by mrentropy on Sept 8, 2015 12:02:35 GMT -8
So to the chart experts out there, does the 3 pattern qualify as an "abandoned baby" or does the lack of a solid candle today rule it out?
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Post by rickag on Sept 8, 2015 12:04:33 GMT -8
Not sure if this Reuters article was posted before, but it really does deserve a Dumb Bunny Award™. Exclusive: Apple ups hiring, but faces obstacles to making phones smarter What nonsense. Some "experts" who like to data mine for Google, maybe. The paragraph above is as if a dumb bunny ate some hay, and then mysteriously pooped out horseshit, instead of pellets. Apple has yet to find an answer for a product Google hasn't released yet? And of course Apple could do blind cloud searches and randomize the data and not use cookies or retain search info. But I guess "experts" haven't heard about https or other encrypted Internet protocols or DuckDuckGo. Good, fuck off nerds, and enjoy working for a dying platform like Android where workers are being laid off. Since when do consumer tech companies let rank-and-file employees dictate policy for customers? I got yer unfettered access right heah! OK, rant over, nice to be green. +1000
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 8, 2015 12:54:46 GMT -8
YHOO's bid to have the IRS not tax the BABA sale was denied. Stock down 2.15% in regular trading and another 4.5% AH. (so far)
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Sept 8, 2015 13:15:17 GMT -8
Apple is the victim of their own success. I just don't see any product coming close to the iPhone financial success story for the foreseeable future, and thus each will be labeled a disappointment. Even the iPhone is basically in competition with itself. Revenues grew by 45% YoY last quarter, yet the stock supposedly got dinged because the iPhone number "missed" guesses (excuse me, "expectations") from a few analysts by under 2%. It has little to do with faith in the future. I mean who a year ago would have believed that such a standout quarterly performance could be labeled "disappointing." The company makes so much money every year that they cannot even find enough ways to spend it all. But as I have pointed out before, if they duplicate this year next year, there is no telling how low the stock would fall. My head says that I need to begin converting my AAPL investment to companies that perform worse, but are better valued. My heart finds it very hard to do so. The logic you are using here makes absolutely no sense. The advantage of a fast growing company with such low value is pretty clear. The rock bottom valuation means that the stock price will almost certainly have to track earnings or we get into another situation like when uncle Carl stepped in. Without stock price appreciation if Apple were to repeat its numbers again next year the p/would be in the 4 to 5 range ex cash. I would argue that this current valuation makes aapl more of a sure thing than just about any other stock you could mention. You just can't sweat the week to week valuations only the quarter to quarter ones and by that metric aapl is doing very well. Any other way then your just gambling not investing I don't think it's my logic that is non-sensical, but the valuation of AAPL. I wish that I had your faith that it MUST correct at some time in the future, but I was saying the same thing in April. Since then we have had two quarters that blew the doors off of YoY comparisons, never mind what any other company is producing, and AAPL is down almost 20%. Believe me, I am not sweating out the week to week valuations; we bought in 4 lots between 2006 and 2012 and have never sold a share. But we are at the point where perhaps it makes sense to start knocking off the LTCG taxes and ramp down to a more annuity-like portfolio. I am enthusiastic about Apple, as I think any regular reader knows. But AAPL is starting to feel too confounding to support my previous blind faith in its eventual success, at least in the time frames that are becoming important to us. None of this really contradicts anything you said. It has more to do with my (our) personal situation. Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 8, 2015 13:40:03 GMT -8
The logic you are using here makes absolutely no sense. The advantage of a fast growing company with such low value is pretty clear. The rock bottom valuation means that the stock price will almost certainly have to track earnings or we get into another situation like when uncle Carl stepped in. Without stock price appreciation if Apple were to repeat its numbers again next year the p/would be in the 4 to 5 range ex cash. I would argue that this current valuation makes aapl more of a sure thing than just about any other stock you could mention. You just can't sweat the week to week valuations only the quarter to quarter ones and by that metric aapl is doing very well. Any other way then your just gambling not investing I don't think it's my logic that is non-sensical, but the valuation of AAPL. I wish that I had your faith that it MUST correct at some time in the future, but I was saying the same thing in April. Since then we have had two quarters that blew the doors off of YoY comparisons, never mind what any other company is producing, and AAPL is down almost 20%. Believe me, I am not sweating out the week to week valuations; we bought in 4 lots between 2006 and 2012 and have never sold a share. But we are at the point where perhaps it makes sense to start knocking off the LTCG taxes and ramp down to a more annuity-like portfolio. I am enthusiastic about Apple, as I think any regular reader knows. But AAPL is starting to feel too confounding to support my previous blind faith in its eventual success, at least in the time frames that are becoming important to us. None of this really contradicts anything you said. It has more to do with my (our) personal situation. Thanks for your thoughtful reply. At this point Wall Street seems to view Apple as more of a 'utility' stock than a 'growth' stock. The 'law of large numbers' remains Apple's albatross. Even when Apple blows the doors off a quarter, the question is remains how do they top it? Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that will change this -- but even as a 'utility' stock Apple is one hell of a bargain.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Sept 8, 2015 14:08:12 GMT -8
Fidelity has pushed out iOS 9 updates for their apps.
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Post by rickag on Sept 8, 2015 14:38:16 GMT -8
I don't think it's my logic that is non-sensical, but the valuation of AAPL. I wish that I had your faith that it MUST correct at some time in the future, but I was saying the same thing in April. Since then we have had two quarters that blew the doors off of YoY comparisons, never mind what any other company is producing, and AAPL is down almost 20%. Believe me, I am not sweating out the week to week valuations; we bought in 4 lots between 2006 and 2012 and have never sold a share. But we are at the point where perhaps it makes sense to start knocking off the LTCG taxes and ramp down to a more annuity-like portfolio. I am enthusiastic about Apple, as I think any regular reader knows. But AAPL is starting to feel too confounding to support my previous blind faith in its eventual success, at least in the time frames that are becoming important to us. None of this really contradicts anything you said. It has more to do with my (our) personal situation. Thanks for your thoughtful reply. At this point Wall Street seems to view Apple as more of a 'utility' stock than a 'growth' stock. The 'law of large numbers' remains Apple's albatross. Even when Apple blows the doors off a quarter, the question is remains how do they top it? Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that will change this -- but even as a 'utility' stock Apple is one hell of a bargain. Agreed. But Apple has a large cash balance most utilities if any at all have. Apple is a cash machine the likes of which has never been seen.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 8, 2015 14:45:12 GMT -8
At this point Wall Street seems to view Apple as more of a 'utility' stock than a 'growth' stock. The 'law of large numbers' remains Apple's albatross. Even when Apple blows the doors off a quarter, the question is remains how do they top it? Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that will change this -- but even as a 'utility' stock Apple is one hell of a bargain. Agreed. But Apple has a large cash balance most utilities if any at all have. apple is a cash machine the likes of which has never been seen. No - they don't view it as a utilities stock because utilities are seen as predictable, safe, and boring. They see apple as a temporary fluke which has done well and rose high but like Icarus, is about to crash and burn. They see it as tomorrow's Blackberry.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 8, 2015 15:05:56 GMT -8
You are right, many people compare Apple to Blackberry.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Sept 8, 2015 17:21:21 GMT -8
You are right, many people compare Apple to Blackberry. But blackberry was kind of a one hit wonder. Apple has a much richer and deeper ecosystem. The danger for Apple, as I see it, is complacency. I see complacency evident in the current version of Pages and Numbers. These are products that should be exemplars of what seemless integration of hardware, OS and software can be, and yet they are clunky messes. The previous CEO would have ripped heads off over the current state of the iWork suite. ( I like Tim overall though) Mission control is another example of complacency. Expose and spaces offered far more intuitive management of virtual desktops. Tags are useless compared to the visual efficacy of labels in finder. As a designer I am astounded that Apple chose to replace labels with tags. One was functional, the other may align better with the new 'flat' aesthetic. Then we have Apple Music.... The reason Apple is so successful, in my mind, is the interface. Intuitive and clean. Lately though there have been cracks appearing. Apple may well be getting too big for their boots. They need to constantly remind themselves of what ist was that propelled them to where they are today. ...but, I remain long Apple and AAPL
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Post by hledgard on Sept 8, 2015 18:25:16 GMT -8
You are right, many people compare Apple to Blackberry. But blackberry was kind of a one hit wonder. Apple has a much richer and deeper ecosystem. The danger for Apple, as I see it, is complacency. I see complacency evident in the current version of Pages and Numbers. These are products that should be exemplars of what seemless integration of hardware, OS and software can be, and yet they are clunky messes. The previous CEO would have ripped heads off over the current state of the iWork suite. ( I like Tim overall though) Mission control is another example of complacency. Expose and spaces offered far more intuitive management of virtual desktops. Tags are useless compared to the visual efficacy of labels in finder. As a designer I am astounded that Apple chose to replace labels with tags. One was functional, the other may align better with the new 'flat' aesthetic. Then we have Apple Music.... The reason Apple is so successful, in my mind, is the interface. Intuitive and clean. Lately though there have been cracks appearing. Apple may well be getting too big for their boots. They need to constantly remind themselves of what ist was that propelled them to where they are today. ...but, I remain long Apple and AAPL My view too. Apple is clearly losing its edge and ease of use. Designs are now clunky, Microsoft-like. I am losing my faith in Apple too.
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Post by chasmac on Sept 8, 2015 20:18:02 GMT -8
Funny, most of the design things people complain about have Jony Ive's paws all over them. From an easy to see and use Unlock button on your iPhone to simple things like color coding folders. Changed why? User unfriendly IMO and it's across products. Hardware design is his forte no doubt, software - blech!
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benoir
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Sept 8, 2015 20:32:33 GMT -8
...it is the interface that connects the user to the product.
No point having a nicely machined aluminium surround if the interface is clunky. It is the interface that I, the user, engages with.
The physical product is not the starting point for Apple. They are nothing without an 'Apple' interface. The interface I'm talking about here is primarily the stuff between the hardware and the user, but the store is also an interface to the product, as are product launches, etc. And I worry lately, like Hildegard, that they are loosing their way on this crucial differentiating front.
And perhaps that's why AAPL has such a low PE because it may not take much for Apple to become passé.
Very, much hope that I am misreading the tea leaves.....
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 8, 2015 21:18:16 GMT -8
...it is the interface that connects the user to the product. No point having a nicely machined aluminium surround if the interface is clunky. It is the interface that I, the user, engages with. The physical product is not the starting point for Apple. They are nothing without an 'Apple' interface. The interface I'm talking about here is primarily the stuff between the hardware and the user, but the store is also an interface to the product, as are product launches, etc. And I worry lately, like Hildegard, that they are loosing their way on this crucial differentiating front. And perhaps that's why AAPL has such a low PE because it may not take much for Apple to become passé. Very, much hope that I am misreading the tea leaves..... Despite any concerns/complaints we on the board might have about Apple products/interface, the fact remains that Apple continues to successfully sell a tremendous number of products each quarter, is a money machine really, and I don't believe for a moment that the stock is being taken down because of general concerns about the interface or Apple software in general.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Sept 8, 2015 21:22:15 GMT -8
I don't really worry about Apple losing their way. Software evolution is not always a smooth process. Just like real evolution, it tends to move in fits and starts. Todays flashy new app or OS or UI is built on many layers of infrastructure and that has to be built. Certainly some areas like Music are not as good as they will be, but I cannot remember the last time Maps led me astray. It just quietly got better.
Continuity was a big deal but we have not seen much about it lately. I know that it is enabling some new functionality that will spring into the world "suddenly"
Just ride the wave and don't worry
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Sept 9, 2015 6:34:28 GMT -8
I use an iPhone, an Android, and a Blackberry regularly (I carry all 3 with me) and the iPhone, BY FAR, has the better and smoother interface. There's no contest.
That said, only a fool would believe that Apple is immune to decline* someday. Declines happen to the best of the best with the passage of time. It's almost inevitable.
* I don't mean stock price, I mean quality, popularity, etc.
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