Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 14, 2015 2:26:04 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Markets are GREEN this morning, at least in Europe and the US, despite ongoing FED concerns. AAPL is GREEN as well, trading at 114.85 +0.64 (0.56%). In the news: Who can resist this headline? Apple's stock may rise 50% on iPhone program, from Barron's via Marketwatch. Not much else, but its early. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 14, 2015 3:03:50 GMT -8
FBR Capital on pre-orders:
FBR Capital analyst Daniel Ives weighed in on pre-orders of Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) new iPhone 6s/6s Plus which kicked off this weekend ahead of the September 25 launch.
Ives said initial demand looks strong based on estimated wait times as displayed on Apple's Web site and various blogs.
Ives said most importantly in their view is that the wait time of iPhone 6s Plus in China is already running three to four weeks, and two to three weeks for the 6s.
The U.S. and U.K. also looked strong on initial pre-order data, showing wait times of roughly three to four weeks for 6s Plus with shorter wait times for 6s depending on model/carrier.
"While there are still unknowns about inventory levels, we note that China demand in particular looks "very strong" out of the gates and is a positive sign that the white-hot momentum out of this region shows no signs of abating despite macro headwinds out of China," the analyst commented. "We note that pre-sales of iPhone 6/6 Plus a year ago were 4 million orders (did not include China). Given initial strong data out of China on pre-sales and our analysis, we expect Apple to exceed this threshold, which would be a healthy indicator of initial 6s demand. "
Outperform price target of $175.00
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 14, 2015 3:28:57 GMT -8
Tim Cook is going to be on Steve Colbert tomorrow (Tuesday) night.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 14, 2015 3:55:32 GMT -8
$$$
Did anyone follow me into the trade??
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Post by rickag on Sept 14, 2015 3:57:53 GMT -8
Yikes, just looked @ premarket. >$116.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 14, 2015 5:09:25 GMT -8
> $117 but whose counting?
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Post by ericinaustin on Sept 14, 2015 5:21:25 GMT -8
With a few exceptions the building buzz since the event last week has been stronger than I have seen in a long time. Should cont to grow with the usual angry shorts trying to spread fud. Again, the pencil reviews make me think lots of people and companies that never used the iPad will be making the switch. Remember how the touch experience was so much better in the apple ecosystem for years? I think the pencil will do the same for people that need a stylus for work or school.
Think about a college student in a lecture with the iPad pro taking notes with the pencil and their iBooks text book open in the split screen. This thing will replace laptops for those type of jobs. It will be big! ( no pun intended)
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 14, 2015 5:41:01 GMT -8
Context: The broader market is RED.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 14, 2015 6:15:20 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 14, 2015 6:16:22 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Sept 14, 2015 6:36:35 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 14, 2015 6:52:26 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2015 7:12:41 GMT -8
Apple knows every sale, every preorder, inventory status. They would not make a statement like this unless the report after the 25th is going to be just fine. It should probably not be a surprise to anyone paying attention that trends are better since China is in this initial rollout and were not for the 6 and 6+. I wonder just how much inventory there was (will be)...as it had to be assumed that the 6s+ would be MASSIVE in Asia and yet it sold out immediately. Much to ponder.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 14, 2015 7:15:02 GMT -8
Apple knows every sale, every preorder, inventory status. They would not make a statement like this unless the report after the 25th is going to be just fine. It should probably not be a surprise to anyone paying attention that trends are better since China is in this initial rollout and were not for the 6 and 6+. I wonder just how much inventory there was (will be)...as it had to be assumed that the 6s+ would be MASSIVE in Asia and yet it sold out immediately. Much to ponder. To me this means they were above 4 million (last year's weekend #s) but not yet to an even 5 million.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 14, 2015 7:31:44 GMT -8
Apple knows every sale, every preorder, inventory status. They would not make a statement like this unless the report after the 25th is going to be just fine. It should probably not be a surprise to anyone paying attention that trends are better since China is in this initial rollout and were not for the 6 and 6+. I wonder just how much inventory there was (will be)...as it had to be assumed that the 6s+ would be MASSIVE in Asia and yet it sold out immediately. Much to ponder. To me this means they were above 4 million (last year's weekend #s) but not yet to an even 5 million. Fortune is showing that last year was 10 Million. I don't remember this number.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 14, 2015 7:37:27 GMT -8
FROM the ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY:"We are on pace to beat last year's 10 million unit first-weekend record when the new iPhones go on sale September 25,' said Apple spokeswoman Trudy Miller. "As many customers noticed, the online demand for iPhone 6s Plus has been exceptionally strong and exceeded our own forecasts for the preorder period."
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 14, 2015 7:37:38 GMT -8
I believe that is 1st weekend sales ... the 5 million are Pre-Orders only . There will be supply in stores all around the world starting on the 25th.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2015 7:38:04 GMT -8
We have a couple of things at play here. There is the preorder number for the first "weekend", which is hard to quantify because last year it started thursday night at midnight pacific, this year on friday night...and we have the actual sales of the first weekend...which included pre-orders delivered and in store sales. One was four million, the other ten million....but there are so many variables and differences this year finding a true comparable may be impossible. Let's just say sales are "great".
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 14, 2015 7:45:53 GMT -8
Two different numbers. Last year first weekend preorders was 4 million. Last year first weekend sales (the equivalent of Sept 25-27 this year) was 10 million. This includes the 4 million first weekend preorders, the rest of the preorder weeks, and the first weekend in-store sales. If first weekend preorders were on track to beat last year's first weekend sales, they are saying they're on track to beat 10 million by Sept 27 but they didn't say what the preorder number was. That's why I'm saying it was probably between 4 and 5, but not more than 5... Because otherwise I think they would've said "more than 5."
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 14, 2015 8:05:45 GMT -8
Last year, after the pre-order weekend (Sep 12-14), they announced on Monday, Sep 15th, that pre-orders (in the first 24 hours) was 4 mln. Then on Sep 22nd, the following Monday, they announced actual sales of 10 mln in the launch weekend of Sep 19-21. This year, although the news is positive, Apple is being vague. Seems like they want to get away from this thing of announcing actual numbers. We see that the market is liking/accepting it... so far. IF they do announce the actual launch weekend sales number on this Sep 28th, it better be around 15 mln+ or else we might see a sell-off. While they're at it, they should also give a higher revised guidance range in order to keep the reaction under control.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 14, 2015 8:11:25 GMT -8
Last year, after the pre-order weekend (Sep 12-14), they announced on Monday, Sep 15th, that pre-orders (in the first 24 hours) was 4 mln. Then on Sep 22nd, the following Monday, they announced actual sales of 10 mln in the launch weekend of Sep 19-21. This year, although the news is positive, Apple is being vague. Seems like they want to get away from this thing of announcing actual numbers. We see that the market is liking/accepting it... so far. IF they do announce the actual launch weekend sales number on this Sep 28th, it better be around 15 mln+ or else we might see a sell-off. While they're at it, they should also give a higher revised guidance range in order to keep the reaction under control. I bet we'll see 12 million on Sept 28. 11 million on the low end. If I'm right and they were somewhere between 4-5 this weekend, that could represent anywhere from 1-20% y/y growth. 15-20% growth should be enough to send the stock higher, since analysts are modeling flat y/y sales.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2015 8:14:36 GMT -8
So Drudge is running three Apple-related stories, all of which are worth a look. NY Post: Apple News app draws ire with advertisers (call the waahmbulance! - JD) LOL! I think we have a winner for the Least Self-Aware Person on the Planet Award™. Uh, no, you are not like Taylor Swift. She has these people called "fans" who want to see and hear her content. In contrast, people hate you. You are like STDs. Apple's ad-block is like penicillin. NY Times: TV Bundles Challenge Apple to Make a DealI have to admit, I waited to see if there were some actual TV content bundled on Apple TV before succumbing to cable. We sure heard enough rumors about Apple negotiating deals with the content providers over the years. This is the main reason to part with cable and sat TV forever for me. But I want live sports. And now my local cable company (Cox) with whom I have Internet is teasing me with a low 12-month rate and I am weakening with football season upon is. And they have the elusive Pac-12 Network for my UCLA games. USA Today: Ad blockers impair digital mediaSurprisingly lucid piece from that usually anti-Apple rag USA Today. But it amazes me how slow on the uptake the tech and financial media have been on this. iOS ad-blocking (plus the news app) is an existential threat to Google's business model, and a chance for Apple to monetize Google's loss. But barely a peep about it - because the media eat lettuce and poop pellets.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 14, 2015 8:34:49 GMT -8
Naturally there are rumours circulating that production issues will cause supply constraints...
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Post by Lstream on Sept 14, 2015 9:54:25 GMT -8
Can't wait for iOS 9 - and ad blocking is one of the big reasons why. So many web sites are so infested that they are a mess and intolerably slow. The industry brought this on themselves by not caring one bit about the overall customer experience on a web site. Can't wait for Google and the associated ad generators to feel the pain. They deserve it.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 14, 2015 9:57:30 GMT -8
Last year, after the pre-order weekend (Sep 12-14), they announced on Monday, Sep 15th, that pre-orders (in the first 24 hours) was 4 mln. Then on Sep 22nd, the following Monday, they announced actual sales of 10 mln in the launch weekend of Sep 19-21. This year, although the news is positive, Apple is being vague. Seems like they want to get away from this thing of announcing actual numbers. We see that the market is liking/accepting it... so far. IF they do announce the actual launch weekend sales number on this Sep 28th, it better be around 15 mln+ or else we might see a sell-off. While they're at it, they should also give a higher revised guidance range in order to keep the reaction under control. I bet we'll see 12 million on Sept 28. 11 million on the low end. If I'm right and they were somewhere between 4-5 this weekend, that could represent anywhere from 1-20% y/y growth. 15-20% growth should be enough to send the stock higher, since analysts are modeling flat y/y sales. Sure you got 15% growth THIS TIME .. But what about next week .... there is no innovation here , sales are going to be flat and the iPhone is going to be a commodity .... this pig is OVERVALUED .... it's should trade at 3x earnings at best. In fact, Tim should pay me to hold this crappy stock .... As stupid as that sounds I've heard just as much from the morons that cover AAPL .... Obviously, I'm kidding here .... great growth for a company that isn't even priced for growth , stunning balance sheet, customer loyalty, product lineup ... yada yada yada .... Just buy and hold .... Cheers to the longs
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2015 10:15:27 GMT -8
Given the statement from Apple we should get a first weekend sales number.
With an extra week of production, I am expecting 30% YOY growth which will drop by the end of 1st quarter's end into the 18-22% range.
I think Apple has run out of domestic and bonding cash to buyback shares for the quarter. They don't mind a nice move upward as we enter in Oct. This statement was not needed.
I am looking forward to guidance in Oct. We will get another sanbag number since there is room for growth beyond iPhones with Apple Watch, AppleTV and iPadPro.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2015 10:49:14 GMT -8
I agree that guidance for the Holiday quarter will be especially interesting. We have the Watch out in the market and Apple knows better than anyone how the Best Buy extension if playing, not to mention better international penetraion. Then we had the previously ailing Ipad sector, which will see some kind of boost with Ipad Pro and the new mini...but we don't have that product out yet, so how to estimate? The TV is the same story. It WILL sell better than the existing Apple TV, but since it is not in the market yet, how to estimate sales for the holiday quarter? Conservative likely rules the day because Iphone sales will be massive due to 50% of first weekend sales sliding into the next quarter and a likely upgrade bump from the carrier incentives and, especially, the new Apple Store upgrade program.
Plus a bunch of shares have been bought back, presumably, which will juice EPS...
October will be a very interesting month.
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Post by rezonate on Sept 14, 2015 11:42:38 GMT -8
I'm still waiting for the iPad Air 3 shoe to drop. And apologies if this was discussed over the weekend - I'm on lockdown getting my book manuscript finished, so no looking back. It took me four days to watch the entire keynote between breaks.
Apple Watch 1.5 and iPhone 6s, basically shipping now.
BUT, Apple announces iPad Mini 4 and iPad Pro 1, shipping later. Announces Apple TV 4, shipping later.
To me, this means we are set for a traditional Apple October Keynote, with the holiday refresh, iMac 21" retina, iPod updated colors (maybe new form factor?), Beats headphone update/launch - essentially a cleanup of the entire product line. They re-announce the new hardware, shipping "soon", new content partners, iPad subsidy program to augment iPhone program.
The iPad Air 2 was launched Oct 22 last year, so... Perfect time to launch iPad Air 3 with A9X chip, support for Apple Pencil and (maybe) a smart keyboard. Yes, it would cannibalize *some* iPad Pro sales, but //think of the margins//!!!
(don't all throw things at once)
So, what does Apple have up their sleeve for the October special event?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Sept 14, 2015 12:08:16 GMT -8
I notice that 75% of Googles mobile advertising revenue comes from IOS. Mobile advertising revenue makes up 20% of Google total revenue. That means that they are going to lose 75% of 20%, i.e. 15% of their total revenue when the ad blocking in IOS9 hits. I think that a 15% drop in revenue should be worth a 25% increase in the value of Goggle stock, if I understand the market correctly. Might be a good time to buy Google
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Post by Lstream on Sept 14, 2015 12:19:37 GMT -8
I notice that 75% of Googles mobile advertising revenue comes from IOS. Mobile advertising revenue makes up 20% of Google total revenue. That means that they are going to lose 75% of 20%, i.e. 15% of their total revenue when the ad blocking in IOS9 hits. I think that a 15% drop in revenue should be worth a 25% increase in the value of Goggle stock, if I understand the market correctly. Might be a good time to buy Google 15% x % of people who ad block. I think on PC's that % is 40-45%. Also, are there ways to circumvent ad blocking which reduces the impact further?
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