Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 2:33:12 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by neno on Oct 1, 2015 3:25:03 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 4:44:02 GMT -8
What happened to GREEN?
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 1, 2015 5:08:20 GMT -8
SAME website 2 days earlier "quoting" 4 NAMED suppliers instead of one UNNAMED for the month of December only. Buoyed by strong sales of the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus, total shipments of iPhone devices are expected to hit a record of 75-80 million units in the fourth quarter of 2015, higher than the 74.5 million units shipped a year, the sources estimated. www.digitimes.com/news/a20150929PD204.html
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Oct 1, 2015 5:19:33 GMT -8
108.70 pre-market
Another fucked up day coming up?
|
|
|
Post by ahmpower on Oct 1, 2015 5:36:05 GMT -8
I need to find another stock to switch to that actually goes up on good news just in order to restore my sanity..
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 5:42:38 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 5:50:28 GMT -8
Probably crazy, but I put a stink bid in today. If people don't value AAPL, I'll gladly take it off their hands.
Naturally it turned green immediately after. Must have scared those algos...
|
|
|
Post by dmiller on Oct 1, 2015 5:59:43 GMT -8
Exactly, the ridiculous FUD on 9to5Mac that showed up this morning.
Title of the article says Apple has reduced their iPhone 6S orders for the holiday. (who could resist reading about that? Oh boy. Although the title says all that anyone would ever need to know, why bother reading the rest?)
But ok, reading the rest. Then it starts talking about supplierS (with an S) having reduced component orders and complaining about this. In the plural. Not quite the same as what the title says, but ok. /sarcasm
Then read a little further and it turns out this FUD article is actually based on a report from a SINGLE supplier, and just maybe it's nothing to worry about as Apple could just be making adjustments in their supply chain. So basically, this FUD article acknowledges it's own FUDness when you get to the end.
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Oct 1, 2015 6:07:20 GMT -8
I need to find another stock to switch to that actually goes up on good news just in order to restore my sanity.. Same here. I would drop this POS like that but can't. I bought shares at their low years ago and will have to pay taxes if I sell now while I've suffered huge short-term losses. Not asking for sympathy but I didn't expect my calls to get battered so badly because of the pathetic fall this stock has taken and its limp dick inability to rise. I know someday it'll have to go up. So I'll wait and look for the best chance to get out. Love the company -- the greatest! Hate the stock -- the worst! EVER!!
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 6:22:30 GMT -8
Kind of perverse... but is the grumbling about AAPL here the sound of capitulation?
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 6:32:11 GMT -8
ArsTechnica reminds us Today, all stores in the US should accept chip-and-PIN cards. It's been noted here on the Board how cumbersome and slow the new chip readers are -- a wonderful contrast to how convenient and fast Pay is. Indeed, the only waiting with Pay is for the receipt to print. Aside to Whole Foods: Why don't you print the receipt as the transaction is rung up, like other grocery chains do?
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 1, 2015 6:45:12 GMT -8
AAPL should just go to 0 and get it over with already.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 1, 2015 6:45:56 GMT -8
Kind of perverse... but is the grumbling about AAPL here the sound of capitulation? No - the opinion of this tiny group of people is entirely irrelevant and meaningless.
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 522
|
Post by coma on Oct 1, 2015 7:20:29 GMT -8
11:08 AM EDT, 10/01/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Apple (AAPL) reported Thursday morning it named former Boeing (BA) CFO and corporate president James A. Bell to its board of directors. Bell spent 38 years at Boeing, during which he also served as interim CEO in 2005. Now there is some good news that will likely take us down, didn't Boeing have some battery issues last year ?
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Oct 1, 2015 7:23:44 GMT -8
The MACD indicates we can drop for another two days before we recover. Today could get much uglier since RSI has yet to drop below 30. I think margin calls are triggering today's sell off. ETrade notified thousands of clients last night. Volume indicates serious selling today. This year reminds me of 2012. Record sales and profits but we go down. The only difference is that we were at 70% institutional ownership vs 60%. I also think WS is spooked by the big jump in ASP for the iPhone. Similar to high gross margin beginning of 2012. This time they are not waiting for confirmation in a drop of ASP which they anticipate in coming quarters. What they failed to see is that other products and services will increase as a result of HALO affect and expansion of market share via reselling of older iPhones in the secondary market. Regardless of ASP, TC made it clear that iPhone will continue to make up more then 50% of revenue and there is plenty of market share to capture in the next 5 years. They just don't believe him like I do. I am confident we will recover in the next 2 months. A solid eps with solid guidance should be just what the doctor ordered.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 1, 2015 7:28:09 GMT -8
11:08 AM EDT, 10/01/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Apple (AAPL) reported Thursday morning it named former Boeing (BA) CFO and corporate president James A. Bell to its board of directors. Bell spent 38 years at Boeing, during which he also served as interim CEO in 2005. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_A._Bell www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/10/01James-Bell-Joins-Apples-Board-of-Directors.htmlJames Bell Joins Apple’s Board of Directors CUPERTINO, California — October 1, 2015 — Apple® today announced that James A. Bell, former chief financial officer and corporate president of The Boeing Company, has been elected to Apple’s board of directors. Bell brings more than four decades of experience in finance, strategic planning and leadership in complex organizations. During his 38-year career at Boeing, he also oversaw Boeing Capital Corporation and Boeing Shared Services, and was interim CEO of The Boeing Company in 2005. “James brings a wealth of global, financial and industrial experience from his successful career at Boeing as corporate president and CFO,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “I am thrilled to welcome him to Apple’s board of directors and I look forward to working with him.” PERHAPS James ( HEY he is Black guy!!) will work on eliminating the need for my signature below!
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
|
Post by bud777 on Oct 1, 2015 7:55:38 GMT -8
11:08 AM EDT, 10/01/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Apple (AAPL) reported Thursday morning it named former Boeing (BA) CFO and corporate president James A. Bell to its board of directors. Bell spent 38 years at Boeing, during which he also served as interim CEO in 2005. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_A._BellA clear indication that Apple is working on flying cars
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Oct 1, 2015 8:00:33 GMT -8
11:08 AM EDT, 10/01/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Apple (AAPL) reported Thursday morning it named former Boeing (BA) CFO and corporate president James A. Bell to its board of directors. Bell spent 38 years at Boeing, during which he also served as interim CEO in 2005. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_A._BellA clear indication that Apple is working on flying cars LOL He was asked about that and he said they are not even thinking about it. But I expect in 10-15 years.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Oct 1, 2015 8:12:50 GMT -8
Exactly, the ridiculous FUD on 9to5Mac that showed up this morning. Title of the article says Apple has reduced their iPhone 6S orders for the holiday. (who could resist reading about that? Oh boy. Although the title says all that anyone would ever need to know, why bother reading the rest?) But ok, reading the rest. Then it starts talking about supplierS (with an S) having reduced component orders and complaining about this. In the plural. Not quite the same as what the title says, but ok. /sarcasm Then read a little further and it turns out this FUD article is actually based on a report from a SINGLE supplier, and just maybe it's nothing to worry about as Apple could just be making adjustments in their supply chain. So basically, this FUD article acknowledges it's own FUDness when you get to the end. We've been here before with "unnamed sources at a major analog IC supplier" suggesting that "suppliers of the iPhone are concerned". And Tim Cook, on 01/23/13, responded to the "unnamed source" rumors very emphatically as quoted in this column, " Attempting to decipher supply chain data is a fool's errand, Tim Cook says". appleinsider.com/articles/13/01/23/attempting-to-decipher-supply-chain-data-is-a-fools-errand-tim-cook-says=================== Responding to rumors out of Apple's supply chain that iPhone production has been cut, Apple CEO Tim Cook said Wednesday that it's inadvisable for market watchers to place much faith in such reports. "The supply chain is very complex, and we obviously have multiple sources for things," Cook said during his company's quarterly earnings conference call. " Yields might vary, supplier performance might vary." Cook implied that recent reports were based on a "single data point," and basing assumptions on limited data is not recommended, he said. The CEO's comments were intentionally vague, though, because he said he didn't want to comment on a particular rumor, joking that he would be on the call for a long time if he went down that road. "Even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to interpret that data point as to what it meant for our business," he said. Reports initially surfaced earlier this month, claiming that Apple had drastically cut iPhone orders as sales waned. But a number of market analysts quickly came to the defense of Apple, dismissing changes in orders as typical supply chain management rather than a reflection of actual demand for products.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
|
Post by bud777 on Oct 1, 2015 8:54:47 GMT -8
The MACD indicates we can drop for another two days before we recover. Today could get much uglier since RSI has yet to drop below 30. I think margin calls are triggering today's sell off. ETrade notified thousands of clients last night. Volume indicates serious selling today. This year reminds me of 2012. Record sales and profits but we go down. The only difference is that we were at 70% institutional ownership vs 60%. I also think WS is spooked by the big jump in ASP for the iPhone. Similar to high gross margin beginning of 2012. This time they are not waiting for confirmation in a drop of ASP which they anticipate in coming quarters. What they failed to see is that other products and services will increase as a result of HALO affect and expansion of market share via reselling of older iPhones in the secondary market. Regardless of ASP, TC made it clear that iPhone will continue to make up more then 50% of revenue and there is plenty of market share to capture in the next 5 years. They just don't believe him like I do. I am confident we will recover in the next 2 months. A solid eps with solid guidance should be just what the doctor ordered. I think we are seeing investors who are afraid of themselves. The Y_O_Y comparison of Jan 16 to Jan 15 looms ahead. It will not be enough to beat Jan 15. The Jan 16 numbers will have to beat the Jan 15 numbers by more than the Jan 15 numbers beat the Jan 14 numbers. (Surely there is a better way to say this, sorry). I guess it is sort of a first derivative, but I hope you get the point. A failure to grow the rate of growth will unleash the same FUD storm that we saw in 2012. I really believe that it is this fear that is holding us back. However, instead of the almost 50% drop we saw in 2012-2013, we now have Apple buying back stock. It is hard for us to view the stock as dispassionately as other investors. If you look at revenue in the first quarter over the past 5 years, Apple had a huge jump from 26.7 to 46.3 in 2011. This was partly because of the 14 week quarter, but if you multiply by 13/14, you still get a jump from 26.7 to 43. The next year it went from 43 to 54.5, then from 54.5 to 57.6. Last year it went from 57.6 to 74.6. If you look at the first and second differences, it looks like the stock price follows the second difference. This would mean that first quarter 16 revenue would have to around 91 billion just to match last year. The consensus of analysts is about 76 billion. If this is true, next February should be a great buying opportunity. Damn, I hope I made a major error, this is discouraging
|
|
|
Post by deasys on Oct 1, 2015 9:11:10 GMT -8
So I'll wait and look for the best chance to get out. Love the company -- the greatest! Hate the stock -- the worst! EVER!! So WS's plan is working!
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Oct 1, 2015 9:28:31 GMT -8
11:08 AM EDT, 10/01/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Apple (AAPL) reported Thursday morning it named former Boeing (BA) CFO and corporate president James A. Bell to its board of directors. Bell spent 38 years at Boeing, during which he also served as interim CEO in 2005. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_A._BellA clear indication that Apple is working on flying cars Made me laugh.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Oct 1, 2015 9:35:53 GMT -8
The MACD indicates we can drop for another two days before we recover. Today could get much uglier since RSI has yet to drop below 30. I think margin calls are triggering today's sell off. ETrade notified thousands of clients last night. Volume indicates serious selling today. This year reminds me of 2012. Record sales and profits but we go down. The only difference is that we were at 70% institutional ownership vs 60%. I also think WS is spooked by the big jump in ASP for the iPhone. Similar to high gross margin beginning of 2012. This time they are not waiting for confirmation in a drop of ASP which they anticipate in coming quarters. What they failed to see is that other products and services will increase as a result of HALO affect and expansion of market share via reselling of older iPhones in the secondary market. Regardless of ASP, TC made it clear that iPhone will continue to make up more then 50% of revenue and there is plenty of market share to capture in the next 5 years. They just don't believe him like I do. I am confident we will recover in the next 2 months. A solid eps with solid guidance should be just what the doctor ordered. I think we are seeing investors who are afraid of themselves. The Y_O_Y comparison of Jan 16 to Jan 15 looms ahead. It will not be enough to beat Jan 15. The Jan 16 numbers will have to beat the Jan 15 numbers by more than the Jan 15 numbers beat the Jan 14 numbers. (Surely there is a better way to say this, sorry). I guess it is sort of a first derivative, but I hope you get the point. A failure to grow the rate of growth will unleash the same FUD storm that we saw in 2012. I really believe that it is this fear that is holding us back. However, instead of the almost 50% drop we saw in 2012-2013, we now have Apple buying back stock. It is hard for us to view the stock as dispassionately as other investors. If you look at revenue in the first quarter over the past 5 years, Apple had a huge jump from 26.7 to 46.3 in 2011. This was partly because of the 14 week quarter, but if you multiply by 13/14, you still get a jump from 26.7 to 43. The next year it went from 43 to 54.5, then from 54.5 to 57.6. Last year it went from 57.6 to 74.6. If you look at the first and second differences, it looks like the stock price follows the second difference. This would mean that first quarter 16 revenue would have to around 91 billion just to match last year. The consensus of analysts is about 76 billion. If this is true, next February should be a great buying opportunity. Damn, I hope I made a major error, this is discouraging Agreed, however, I think we may be starting this cycle at a much lower TTE P/E and forward P/E. I can see AAPL heading to a low P/E of 10 in worse case scenario. But remember the last time AAPL headed below $100, a lot of buyers appeared in that span of 12 minutes (hope Apple was some of that buying).
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
|
Post by JDSoCal on Oct 1, 2015 9:45:13 GMT -8
I swear, every time I read the intraday thread, I have to recite the serenity prayer.
Just so everyone knows, I've really been biting my tongue for civility reasons...
Always wrong but never in doubt.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 1, 2015 9:49:31 GMT -8
All the metrics are well and good....but just look at free cash flow generated in any particular time period. Free cash flow is the ultimate measure...
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 1, 2015 10:17:54 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Oct 1, 2015 10:40:01 GMT -8
The MACD indicates we can drop for another two days before we recover. Today could get much uglier since RSI has yet to drop below 30. I think margin calls are triggering today's sell off. ETrade notified thousands of clients last night. Volume indicates serious selling today. This year reminds me of 2012. Record sales and profits but we go down. The only difference is that we were at 70% institutional ownership vs 60%. I also think WS is spooked by the big jump in ASP for the iPhone. Similar to high gross margin beginning of 2012. This time they are not waiting for confirmation in a drop of ASP which they anticipate in coming quarters. What they failed to see is that other products and services will increase as a result of HALO affect and expansion of market share via reselling of older iPhones in the secondary market. Regardless of ASP, TC made it clear that iPhone will continue to make up more then 50% of revenue and there is plenty of market share to capture in the next 5 years. They just don't believe him like I do. I am confident we will recover in the next 2 months. A solid eps with solid guidance should be just what the doctor ordered. I think we are seeing investors who are afraid of themselves. The Y_O_Y comparison of Jan 16 to Jan 15 looms ahead. It will not be enough to beat Jan 15. The Jan 16 numbers will have to beat the Jan 15 numbers by more than the Jan 15 numbers beat the Jan 14 numbers. (Surely there is a better way to say this, sorry). I guess it is sort of a first derivative, but I hope you get the point. A failure to grow the rate of growth will unleash the same FUD storm that we saw in 2012. I really believe that it is this fear that is holding us back. However, instead of the almost 50% drop we saw in 2012-2013, we now have Apple buying back stock. It is hard for us to view the stock as dispassionately as other investors. If you look at revenue in the first quarter over the past 5 years, Apple had a huge jump from 26.7 to 46.3 in 2011. This was partly because of the 14 week quarter, but if you multiply by 13/14, you still get a jump from 26.7 to 43. The next year it went from 43 to 54.5, then from 54.5 to 57.6. Last year it went from 57.6 to 74.6. If you look at the first and second differences, it looks like the stock price follows the second difference. This would mean that first quarter 16 revenue would have to around 91 billion just to match last year. The consensus of analysts is about 76 billion. If this is true, next February should be a great buying opportunity. Damn, I hope I made a major error, this is discouraging I am sorry but there is no way anyone expects the Jan numbers to beat the growth rate of 2015. That would mean 100+ billion quarter. WS right now expects flat or 5% growth putting us into high 70s. I expect high 80s.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 1, 2015 10:40:54 GMT -8
All the metrics are well and good....but just look at free cash flow generated in any particular time period. Free cash flow is the ultimate measure... And the last time the price to free cash flow ratio was as low as its been this quarter was... Never. I look at this chart from time to time. It shows the price / free cash flow for AAPL, not just at the quarterly data points but continuously throughout the quarter. www.aaplbeat.com/pfcfy/Last time we were close to this FcF valuation was in the depth of 2013, but that was when FCF was decreasing. Here we have increasing FCF and an even lower FCF valuation.
|
|
|
Post by pauls on Oct 1, 2015 10:57:36 GMT -8
So many people looking for the exit, I just added shares. This talk of sub $100 seems crazy to me, and just a great time to keep accumulating. If we see $80, just buy more (a lot more!). That's my current plan.
|
|