Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 11:01:01 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 11:03:44 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 1, 2015 11:08:49 GMT -8
The latest horse's ass to weigh in: "The Apple trade is over" by Thomas H. Kee Jr. (Thomas H. Kee Jr. is the president and CEO of Stock Traders Daily, where he offers strategies and newsletters to both institutional and individual investors) =========== The Apple trade is officially over. Before I start, to all the diehard Apple AAPL out there, yes, AAPL is still a good company, their products are great, I personally love my Macbook Pro, and although they are in a very fickle industry, it is impressive that they have been able to do what they have done. But good companies see stock prices fall, too.
There is also a coincidence between the AAPL trade and the shift in the psychology of the market, and ultimately that may, as simple as it sounds, be the reason the AAPL trade is over.
To start, we do not have free-flowing liquidity anymore, in fact we are now officially in a liquidity crisis, and the obvious flow of money into Apple is no longer there as it was before. In years past, any time money came into the market, it naturally came to Apple, and there was a natural bid that was further supported by stimulus.
The stock was a direct beneficiary of the added liquidity, not only driven by stimulus, but also by the assumption of margin debt on an institutional level. It seemed as if the stock price would not do anything but increase because there was an open spigot of new money flowing into the market, and some of that naturally found its way to the company’s shares.
Well, those days are over, and that constant bid in AAPL can no longer be depended upon. Arguably, Apple may be the last thing most people want to sell, too, given the marriage many investors have had with their iPhone provider. But when sentiment shifts happen like we are seeing now, being married to a stock can be disastrous.
I know the argument, the stock looks cheap with a multiple under 13 times earnings, but that won't look cheap if the growth rate stalls. In fact, it won't look cheap to investors either if the stock price starts to fall. Investors whose portfolios are leveraged with Apple shares will not appreciate a very modest growth rate from the company given what they have come to expect, much less the risk of the fickle consumer being tempted by something new that could and eventually will surface.
This is a little sidetracked from my point, though. My point is that the psychology of the market and the obvious shifts in liquidity have caused the Apple trade to change. Investors should not expect money to be there to pick up the pieces anymore.=========== I decided to include the entire article to remove the need to visit the page. There are many appropriate rebuttal's to his lame-brained column but this is one of the better ones: Market Reality 24 minutes ago This guy has an interesting track record if you look back in his archived articles.
Here is what he wrote wrote a few months ago "On Thursday, May 28, 2015, I placed a strong buy recommendation on iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN OIL, -1.18% when the ETF was testing 11.50. This recommendation was emailed to clients and all media networks. The call is a bullish one on oil prices, and we believe that OIL is positioned to increase handsomely in the year ahead, and that can impact consumers adversely" Crude oil closed at 58.97 on the day this recommendation was made and of course we all know what happened after that - it traded all the way down to 38.93. And in case you were wondering what he thinks about AAPL, here it is. He wrote this on 10-4-12 "However, for the record, I still don't like Apple. In fact, we all now know that the competition hasn't just caught up with Apple, they’ve surpassed it" == Market Reality obviously feels the way I do about these Apple nay sayers: Consider the source So searching "Thomas H. Kee Jr" and "Apple" brings up his previous negative posts regarding Apple, and among those hits, the best was responses to his articles by MacDailyNews which had these three pieces that they had picked apart. I'd recommend checking these out because MacDailyNews did a great job highlighting Kee's inability to understand and advise regarding investing in Apple. Why Google is tech investor’s darling, not Apple macdailynews.com/2014/02/12/why-google-is-tech-investors-darling-not-apple/Wednesday, February 12, 2014 · 12:22 pm · 43 Comments Apple found legs last week, but it’s Google that…AAPL is now shortable or something macdailynews.com/2012/04/25/aapl-is-now-shortable-or-something/Wednesday, April 25, 2012 · 8:53 am · 25 Comments Although I recommended that investors sell Apple too early…Stock Traders Daily CEO: ‘Time to sell Apple’ macdailynews.com/2012/01/12/stock-traders-daily-ceo-time-to-sell-apple/Thursday, January 12, 2012 · 9:28 am · 49 Comments Apple is not what it was. Apple is a sell….=========================== So, to summarize Thomas H. Kee Jr's bad calls on AAPL I have to consider this the worst of the three: He encouraged folks to SELL AAPL in early January of 2012. As I've indicated in a previous post, 2012 was by far the year in which my own investment in AAPL stock increased the most, although if he'd encouraged getting out of the stock on Sept. 19, 2012 (at $702.10) he may have more people paying attention to him.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 1, 2015 11:22:12 GMT -8
I recently got a bit more dry powder. I'm selling puts at 105 two weeks out, and will continue to do so until Wall Street gives me the shares or I get rich on premiums.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Oct 1, 2015 11:56:58 GMT -8
I've started buying Jan '18 BCSs today. These are the first Jan '18s for me so far.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 1, 2015 12:07:07 GMT -8
AAPL is down $0.72.
did I miss something? /s
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Post by Lstream on Oct 1, 2015 12:14:23 GMT -8
AAPL is down $0.72. did I miss something? /s Ya, the late day rally.
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Post by dmiller on Oct 1, 2015 12:16:06 GMT -8
Exactly.
This has all happened before. (As Dan Eran Dilger would typically say).
Every October, someone trots out the same old trope.
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Post by mace on Oct 1, 2015 12:34:02 GMT -8
I've started buying Jan '18 BCSs today. These are the first Jan '18s for me so far. Why is it the right time? I'm still pondering.
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Post by mace on Oct 1, 2015 12:43:50 GMT -8
Bullish harami cross follows by a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Feel good.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Oct 1, 2015 12:58:36 GMT -8
I've started buying Jan '18 BCSs today. These are the first Jan '18s for me so far. Why is it the right time? I'm still pondering. I've only bought a very small position so far, and I think my order triggered when the stock was 107-something. I've been doing this each year after the new LEAPs arrive ... I try to buy them after a substantial decline to 1) allow me to lower the BCS range, yet still have a target return that is acceptable, and 2) obviously, to reduce risk (the risk of this* stock declining by 20% is lower after it has already dropped 20% than before). I don't know if this is the right time. It probably isn't exactly the right time, maybe tomorrow or the next day will be a better time. And that's why I only bought a portion of the eventual trade, I can (and will) buy more if the price goes down. And if the price doesn't go down, eventually I'll probably buy more anyway, or will buy some other combination of BCS or straight calls or selling puts, or some combination thereof (as usually happens throughout the year). * That isn't true of all stocks. For many companies, the risk of them going down 20% is HIGHER after having already gone down 20%.
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Post by nagrani on Oct 1, 2015 13:07:11 GMT -8
Bullish harami cross follows by a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Feel good. Current count?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 1, 2015 13:10:50 GMT -8
Bullish harami cross follows by a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Feel good. Would you be so kind as to provide a layman's explanation -- in the words of reddit, explain it like I'm five. Thanks.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Oct 1, 2015 14:24:46 GMT -8
I'll take the four year old version, tyvm.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 1, 2015 14:40:37 GMT -8
I think Brian is correct. news.investors.com/100115-773715-apple-initiated-with-buy-rating-at-drexel-hamilton.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahooApple called one of world's most undervalued tech stocksNote to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) investors: Keep calm and carry on. That was the theme of a research note Thursday by Drexel Hamilton analyst Brian White. White, formerly with Cantor Fitzgerald, initiated coverage of Apple at his new firm with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of 200.Apple stock fell 0.7% to 109.58 on the stock market today. It had been as high as 132.97 on July 20 and hit a record high of 134.54 on April 28. "The sharp correction in Apple's stock this summer represents an attractive entry point as we believe fears surrounding China are overblown, concerns around difficult iPhone comparisons are short-sighted, and the appreciation for the implications of this transformational super cycle is surprisingly muted," White said. White predicted continued strong smartphone sales with the new iPhone 6S handsets and said that the Apple Watch will be a "major hit this holiday season." He also sees big opportunities for expansion in China and India. White called Apple "one of the most undervalued technology stocks in the world."
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 1, 2015 14:57:17 GMT -8
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Oct 1, 2015 15:03:18 GMT -8
Weather forecast by FRANKIE MACDONALD FOR THOSE ON THE EAST COAST Chill out dude . . .
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Post by sponge on Oct 1, 2015 15:34:48 GMT -8
Artman You have less hair then your avatar.
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Post by firestorm on Oct 1, 2015 15:52:05 GMT -8
The only good thing that happened today, on a crappy AAPL day, was that I saw a car with six family stickers on the rear window: two big white apples and four little white apples. Now THAT is an Apple family!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 1, 2015 15:56:21 GMT -8
The only good thing that happened today, on a crappy AAPL day, was that I saw a car with six family stickers on the rear window: two big white apples and four little white apples. Now THAT is an Apple family! I' ve told you to stop following my car.....
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Post by sponge on Oct 1, 2015 16:42:06 GMT -8
You know Apple is going to kick ass when your wife announces that her work will get her the 6+S in Rose Gold and she now wants to get the rose gold Apple Watch as well.
She has an Apple Watch already but wants to color coordinate with her new iPhone.
Apple has some big hits on their hands.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 1, 2015 17:20:02 GMT -8
You know Apple is going to kick ass when your wife announces that her work will get her the 6+S in Rose Gold and she now wants to get the rose gold Apple Watch as well. She has an Apple Watch already but wants to color coordinate with her new iPhone. Apple has some big hits on their hands. Sponge, don't make her work for them; go buy them for her as a gift. I hate having to give all this relationship advice!
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 1, 2015 17:52:07 GMT -8
With savvy analysts like Thomas H. Kee Jr indicating that "The Apple trade is over", many AAPL investors discouraged by the falling stock price and selling their stock, Apple Inc realizes it's time to start cutting expenses and begin to downsize the company to fit today's reality. /sarcasm Apple is already planning for a second spaceship-style campusfinance.yahoo.com/news/apple-already-planning-second-spaceship-224122506.htmlApple hasn't even finished construction on its first spaceship-style campus, but it's reportedly signed a lease on a second, according to the Silicon Valley Business Journal's Nathan Donato-Weinstein. The new campus, which is still under development, is designed to be "Not Another Box," according to its marketing moniker, and its curvy architecture is reminiscent of Apple's own command-key symbol, just with three loops instead of four. The large campus site in Sunnyvale would replace a 1970s business park with the futuristic looking six-story office campus, complete with a rooftop gardens and two miles of walkable paths. And like it's first Spaceship campus, which is just one large ring, the plan calls for smaller enclosed courtyard in each of the three buildings. All three are connected in one large roof garden. Apple's appetite for new office space is seemingly never-ending. The company recently bought a site in San Jose and signed a lease for a 300,000 square foot building next door to it. This new deal would add 777,100 square feet to its empire and make room for an additional 3,000 workers. Both Apple and the developer of the property, Landmark, declined to comment. Read the Silicon Valley Business Journal's full report on the leasing here. The alleged new Apple campus is in the heart of Sunnyvale at Central and Wolfe cross streets. A path goes through the middle of it for access to the parking garage. There's no surface parking. Instead, the campus is filled with green spaces and two miles of walkable trails on the ground.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 1, 2015 18:21:20 GMT -8
Amazon to Cease Selling Apple TV, Google Chromecast Over 'Prime Video' Incompatibilitywww.macrumors.com/2015/10/01/amazon-to-stop-selling-apple-tv-chromecast/Amazon plans to stop selling some streaming video devices that compete with its Fire TV and Fire TV Stick, reports Bloomberg. It will no longer offer Google's Chromecast or Apple's Apple TV for sale in its online store. Amazon today sent an email to marketplace sellers notifying them of the upcoming change. The site plans to disallow new listings for the product and remove existing inventory on October 29. As a reason for the removal, Amazon is citing compatibility with its Prime Video streaming service, which is not available on devices from Google and Apple. "Over the last three years, Prime Video has become an important part of Prime," Amazon said in the e-mail. "It's important that the streaming media players we sell interact well with Prime Video in order to avoid customer confusion." Other set-top boxes and consoles, including those from Roku, Microsoft, and Playstation, do have apps that allow customers to stream Amazon Prime Video and thus won't be affected by the new ban. For Apple customers, this means the new fourth-generation Apple TV will not be available for purchase via Amazon.com. It also suggests the device will not be gaining an Amazon video app and will continue to be incompatible with the Amazon Prime Video service.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 1, 2015 18:29:43 GMT -8
On the way home from dinner, my wife and i heard this NPR interview with Tim Cook. Worth a look and listen (follow the link to listen). The interviewer twice asked Cook if Apple was going to make a car. His response? Next question... Apple CEO Tim Cook: 'Privacy Is A Fundamental Human Right'www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2015/10/01/445026470/apple-ceo-tim-cook-privacy-is-a-fundamental-human-rightApple has long touted the power and design of its devices, but recently the world's most valuable company has been emphasizing another feature: privacy. That's no small matter when many users store important private data on those devices: account numbers, personal messages, photos. Apple CEO Tim Cook talks to NPR's Robert Siegel about how the company protects its customers' data, and how it uses — or doesn't use — that information. Interview HighlightsOn government requests for customer text messagesThe government comes to us from time to time, and if they ask in a way that is correct, and has been through the courts as is required, then to the degree that we have information, we give that information. However, we design our products in such a way that privacy is designed into the product. And security is designed in. And so if you think about it ... some of our most personal data is on the phone: our financial data, our health information, our conversations with our friends and family and co-workers. And so instead of us taking that data into Apple, we've kept data on the phone and it's encrypted by you. You control it. On national security, encryption and calls for a "back door"National security always matters, obviously. But the reality is that if you have an open door in your software for the good guys, the bad guys get in there, too. Think about what happened in [Washington, D.C.] with ... literally tens of millions of employees of the government getting their data stolen. And so we think that our customers want us to help them keep their data safe. ... I don't think you will hear the [National Security Agency] asking for a back door. ... There have been different conversations with the FBI, I think, over time. ... But my own view is everyone's coming around to some core tenets. And those core tenets are that encryption is a must in today's world. And I think everybody's coming around also to recognizing that any back door means a back door for bad guys as well as good guys. And so a back door is a nonstarter. It means we are all not safe. ... I don't support a back door for any government, ever. On Apple's recent emphasis on customer privacyWe do think that people want us to help them keep their lives private. We see that privacy is a fundamental human right that people have. We are going to do everything that we can to help maintain that trust. ... Our view on this comes from a values point of view, not from a commercial interest point of view. Our values are that we do think that people have a right to privacy. And that our customers are not our products. We don't collect a lot of your data and understand every detail about your life. That's just not the business that we are in. On how customer purchasing history is usedLet me be clear. If you buy something from the App Store, we do know what you bought from the App Store, obviously. We think customers are fine with that. Many customers want us to recommend an app. But what they don't want to do, they don't want your email to be read, and then to pick up on keywords in your email and then to use that information to then market you things on a different application that you're using. ... If you're in our News app, and you're reading something, we don't think that in the News app that we should know what you did with us on the Music app — not to trade information from app to app to app to app.
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Post by sponge on Oct 1, 2015 18:41:46 GMT -8
Apple Car is coming. The only question is when. I say 2020 starts preorders with delivery in second half of 2021.
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Post by BillH on Oct 1, 2015 19:55:35 GMT -8
I'll go along with the thought that Apple is in development of an automobile and it's related technology. Whether that automobile ever goes into production is an entirely different matter. They've worked on and abandoned countless products in their history as we all know and I believe that an Apple branded television was one of them. Let me know when you see the tooling orders start to hit.
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Post by BillH on Oct 1, 2015 20:08:32 GMT -8
In the fwiw category I'd like to submit the recent roll out of iOS 9 and El Capitan as proof of Apples ability to ship high quality software. I installed both as soon as they were available and have yet to experience even the smallest of issues. The last couple of years were a little rough but it seems they were paying attention to the complaints of their users. Few of the bigger names make excuses for poor quality as I use to see so often in the Windows world. They tell the world when it's crap and thankfully Apple seems to respond.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Oct 1, 2015 20:11:09 GMT -8
PSA NB if you Have T-MobileMac rumors broke the News that a Business Unit of Experian has been Breached. The data compromised included 15 Million T-Mobile users! www.macrumors.com/2015/10/01/experian-hack-affects-millions-of-t-mobile-users/I spent one incredibly frustrating hour trying to get an actual live fucking person from Experian on the Phone and it was impossible. I tried to put a freeze on my account on line, having already had one CC compromised and their systems kept telling me that because of the State I lived in i needed a fucking police report and to enter my CC as the freeze would not be free when it was their Bloody Server that was Hacked! If i don't speak to a live person Tomorrow I will be calling my Senator, Along with every Bloody new outlet i can think off.....
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 1, 2015 21:46:32 GMT -8
Brian White is one of the most overzealous apple analysts out there. He will be right one of these days.
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