Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 16, 2015 2:25:23 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 16, 2015 5:39:39 GMT -8
Where did everybody go?
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 16, 2015 5:49:53 GMT -8
We are all here on the 16th ! You are stuck in a time warp continuum ...
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Oct 16, 2015 5:50:54 GMT -8
We're just range bound....we ain't going nowhere...
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 16, 2015 6:03:49 GMT -8
We are all here on the 16th ! You are stuck in a time warp continuum ... Not the first time and probably not the last...
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 16, 2015 6:04:57 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 16, 2015 6:31:53 GMT -8
Wake me up when we hit 113. I'm so old I can remember when 122 seemed low.
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Post by rickag on Oct 16, 2015 6:37:38 GMT -8
Hope they patented this "Suggested Apps" feature in the Start Menu. Wouldn't want Apple to copy it. /sarcasm
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Post by sponge on Oct 16, 2015 7:38:34 GMT -8
Well mission accomplished regarding making the 115 worthless. Now let's see if we go green and go up in the last three hours to drop those 115 puts. I think the goal is to get them down to a $1 a piece.
I can see a close between 112-113
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 16, 2015 7:57:40 GMT -8
from "the Fly" Apple at risk of missing December quarter iPhone estimate, says Detwiler FentonDetwiler Fenton said earlier that North American iPhone checks suggest sales are down from last year, which paired with risk for lower sales in Western Europe and recent media reports that point to possible softness in Japan, lead it the firm to believe Apple is at risk of missing the iPhone consensus estimate for its December quarter. The firm noted that its current iPhone estimate for the December quarter is 66M units. Luckychoices is this our daily 'reason'?
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Post by sponge on Oct 16, 2015 8:02:19 GMT -8
from "the Fly" Apple at risk of missing December quarter iPhone estimate, says Detwiler FentonDetwiler Fenton said earlier that North American iPhone checks suggest sales are down from last year, which paired with risk for lower sales in Western Europe and recent media reports that point to possible softness in Japan, lead it the firm to believe Apple is at risk of missing the iPhone consensus estimate for its December quarter. The firm noted that its current iPhone estimate for the December quarter is 66M units. Luckychoices is this our daily 'reason'? Well he and I are 22 million iPhones apart for the quarter
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 16, 2015 8:38:06 GMT -8
I would really like to know how anyone can "Model" the amount of sales at this point. Face it ... EVERYONE who states a number is pulling them out of their ass. With so many outlets that sell the phone as well as online sales there is no accurate way of measuring ... sure someone will nail it and they will be lucky, simple as that.
THIS is the problem with everyone trying to outsmart the market and move in and out of stocks based on what is mostly BS. Just look at the last 5 years of analysis and how far even the analysts differ ... very frustrating as simple common sense and long term investing in a company is the way your Grandfather invested .... : (
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Post by macwire on Oct 16, 2015 8:41:11 GMT -8
Haven't traded apple in months. Meanwhile the other horsemen of the Nasdaq all within spitting distance of all time highs.
A "bad" reaction to earnings will likely finally dump us under 100. This has been a long wave iv for AAPL hasn't it...(unless it's something worse)
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Post by sponge on Oct 16, 2015 8:42:47 GMT -8
The 26k of 110 calls look too tempting not to take down. Let's see if we drop below 110 the recovery starts.
I am comfortable with my estimate for iPhones. It is based on last years numbers and historical move for the 6s. Add to that is discounted 6 and further China growth and 18% YOY growth is doable.
Everyone is yelling fire in the theater because data does not indicate 46% growth like last year.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 16, 2015 9:01:05 GMT -8
from "the Fly" Apple at risk of missing December quarter iPhone estimate, says Detwiler FentonDetwiler Fenton said earlier that North American iPhone checks suggest sales are down from last year, which paired with risk for lower sales in Western Europe and recent media reports that point to possible softness in Japan, lead it the firm to believe Apple is at risk of missing the iPhone consensus estimate for its December quarter. The firm noted that its current iPhone estimate for the December quarter is 66M units. Luckychoices is this our daily 'reason'? Could very well be, but we have a few more hours before we can declare a winner. It certainly shows real potential by using the phrase, "at risk". Brrrrr. Sounds scary to me.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Oct 16, 2015 9:14:21 GMT -8
A week or so ago, someone here posted a link to an instablog on Seeking Alpha. The article was the second of two and combined they are the best I have ever read about Apple and why it is valued so unfairly. I will keep looking, but if anyone still has the link, would you repost it please?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Oct 16, 2015 9:20:34 GMT -8
A week or so ago, someone here posted a link to an instablog on Seeking Alpha. The article was the second of two and combined they are the best I have ever read about Apple and why it is valued so unfairly. I will keep looking, but if anyone still has the link, would you repost it please? Perhaps you are referring to this: Gregg Rosenberg's Apple: A Misunderstood Giant
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Post by rickag on Oct 16, 2015 9:33:11 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Oct 16, 2015 9:40:01 GMT -8
A week or so ago, someone here posted a link to an instablog on Seeking Alpha. The article was the second of two and combined they are the best I have ever read about Apple and why it is valued so unfairly. I will keep looking, but if anyone still has the link, would you repost it please? Perhaps you are referring to this: Gregg Rosenberg's Apple: A Misunderstood GiantYes!!. Thank you Since84. That article and this one that it links to were just amazing. seekingalpha.com/article/2624245-apple-breaking-the-law-of-large-numbers-and-getting-away-with-itI think it addressed about 95% of the cognitive dissonance that we struggle with each day. For those who haven't read both of these, do yourself a favor, read them and drop your blood pressure 20 points. On the other hand, I just read Robert Schiller's "Phishing for Phools". I am a big fan of Dr. Schiller, but I do not think that this is his best effort. Let me save you $16.95 and summarize it. "If you create a system, people will cheat it" There was very little insight into the way that the stock or options are gamed. I would give it a miss. The two articles left me feeling very confident in Apple and AAPL for the long run, and made me realize that the misperceptions of most analysts are not an attempt to deceive, but a legitimate failure to understand. Once I accept this hypothesis, I am more then willing to prey upon their misunderstanding.
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Post by sponge on Oct 16, 2015 10:19:42 GMT -8
Hey forget the articles about Apple's bright future.
I will refer you back to my posts in 2005 and 2006. Those who bought and held should be very happy 10 years later.
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Post by incorrigible on Oct 16, 2015 10:24:10 GMT -8
On the other hand, I just read Robert Schiller's "Phishing for Phools". I am a big fan of Dr. Schiller, but I do not think that this is his best effort. Let me save you $16.95 and summarize it. "If you create a system, people will cheat it" There was very little insight into the way that the stock or options are gamed. I would give it a miss. Thanks for the synopsis on Schiller's book. Saved me $17
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Post by rickag on Oct 16, 2015 13:36:32 GMT -8
Max pain for next week = 111.00 Just once in awhile I would like to be free of pain.
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 16, 2015 13:41:25 GMT -8
Oxycontin
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Oct 16, 2015 15:54:36 GMT -8
I prefer Morphine for a truly numbing experience . . .
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Post by mace on Oct 16, 2015 17:19:59 GMT -8
...I will refer you back to my posts in 2005 and 2006. Those who bought and held should be very happy 10 years later. We have a different CEO and COO now. Smart asses didn't foresee and underestimate the revenue and profitability of iPhone. What is the high growth and highly profitable product category you have in mind?
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Post by sponge on Oct 16, 2015 20:45:32 GMT -8
...I will refer you back to my posts in 2005 and 2006. Those who bought and held should be very happy 10 years later. We have a different CEO and COO now. Smart asses didn't foresee and underestimate the revenue and profitability of iPhone. What is the high growth and highly profitable product category you have in mind? Nothing has changed. I was bullish because of the Halo affect from the iPod. The OS is they key. The core group is still there. The iPhone has plenty of growth left. Don't take my word for it. I will refer you to TC. I think margin will slowly grow with new and improved manufacturing technology. Never mind new future products that have yet to come out. Services and software is they key in the future. Apple will take a cut regardless of how popular HomeKit, HealthKit, ResearchKit, Car Play, Apple Pay. Then we turn to wearables (Apple Watch in the first inning of 7), cars, and other devices. We have never been stronger and the competition weaker. Think 1995 and where MS was compared to Apple. It is a whole new world. I will repeat myself again in 10 years.
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Post by BillH on Oct 16, 2015 21:14:14 GMT -8
We have a different CEO and COO now. Smart asses didn't foresee and underestimate the revenue and profitability of iPhone. What is the high growth and highly profitable product category you have in mind? Nothing has changed. I was bullish because of the Halo affect from the iPod. The OS is they key. The core group is still there. The iPhone has plenty of growth left. Don't take my word for it. I will refer you to TC. I think margin will slowly grow with new and improved manufacturing technology. Never mind new future products that have yet to come out. Services and software is they key in the future. Apple will take a cut regardless of how popular HomeKit, HealthKit, ResearchKit, Car Play, Apple Pay. Then we turn to wearables (Apple Watch in the first inning of 7), cars, and other devices. We have never been stronger and the competition weaker. Think 1995 and where MS was compared to Apple. It is a whole new world. I will repeat myself again in 10 years. I agree with much of this and would point out that you forgot the Mac. I tell my friends that I'm beginning to think that Apple might run the table meaning desktops, mobile and wearables. They think I'm on crack of course. Don't have a clue as to where the stock goes though. Hopefully up.
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Post by sponge on Oct 16, 2015 22:00:54 GMT -8
I am not as bullish on the Mac. Sure we will grow market share from the Halo affect of other products. However we are gaining about 1% a year in PC market share. That means MS has at least at least 50 years left.
MS is very ingrained in the enterprise world. The cost of the PC will always dictate adoption.
A year after the partnership with IBM, we have yet to see meaningful adoption of iPads in enterprise to replace PC. It will happen but very slowly. There are plenty of 30 year old IT managers and teachers in high schools and college that will promote Windows. Those folks have lots of power and will be with us for another 30 years easily.
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