Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 29, 2015 3:16:26 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. We're running out of 2015 here. Looks like a GREEN day. AAPL is trading at 107.38 +0.56 (0.52%). Getting tired of asking if we will regain yesterday's loss... In the news: Cult of Mac has Apple’s A-series chip mastermind gets a happy Christmas bonus. Well earned. Cult of mac is running a Poll: 8 months in, are you still wearing your Apple Watch every day?. Though an internet poll, over 72% of over 14,000 respondents say yes. Another 12.5% say occasionally. While I'd love to see the numbers higher, that's pretty good in the context of many 'devices' I have purchased... which prompted the realization that Apple devices dominate the things I use daily -- Mac, iPad, iPhone and TV. Came across Benedict Evans' 16 mobile theses from mid December. Worth the read. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by osx10 on Dec 29, 2015 6:34:53 GMT -8
Seeing more tweets about Digitimes projecting 5-10% iPhone production cuts today.
If iPhones are really off 5-10% wouldn't that have been enough of a hit that AAPL would have had to have issued revised guidance?
The company's silence is interpreted as the rumors are fact.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 29, 2015 7:13:24 GMT -8
I don't think Apple should come out and deny rumours because it sets a bad precedent and just encourages more of the same in hopes of a response. However, Tim Cook should absolutely rip apart the analysts during the conference call, assuming guidance was met/exceeded and iPhone continues to grow.
If the rumours turn out to be correct, then I will be severely disappointed in Apple management and will look to sell out my position on the first decent rally.
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Post by rezonate on Dec 29, 2015 7:49:25 GMT -8
The article that accompanied the Cult of Mac poll was just annoying, upon final inspection. Basically a fluff piece to elevate the author above all you other geeks who are tied to their technology. S/he is so much better than you, because "I use technology so often in my life that when I’m not working, I really like to disconnect and avoid Twitter and basically digital communication as a whole." BAH HA HA HA. BOO Hoo hoo hoo. Apple Watch has four major modes: telling time, alerts, fitness tracking, wave-and-pay. If none of these big four modes is enough to keep it on your wrist 24/7, then absolutely *take it off*. But I would suggest any attempt to be seen as dismissive of all four is lying. Such a person would be so tech averse that they would not wear even a basic watch. If you can't find value in a wrist-based time-telling device, you deserve to be a luddite.
The music-related aspects of Apple Watch are terrible (load one playlist only, remote control of iPhone only) but could get better with software. Luddites who reject all of the big four modes will need a compelling fifth mode enabled by non-Apple sources. Third party applications may add enough compelling value, eventually, but nothing has floated to the top. My fifth mode is checking the weather. I'm in a business that requires me to keep touch with the weather, hourly, and the times of sunrise and sunset in multiple locations. Nothing on the market - nothing - enables this functionality while *also* maintaining the big four modes in a miniature and beautiful device with a simple interface. And I always keep in mind that this is a first generation product with at least two more years of development in front of it before planned obsolescence.
Could the NFC chip be the sleeper tech breakout of 2016? iBeacon implementation has fallen flat, but a two-way "wallet" enabled by NFC could be right around the corner. Your hotel would "load" a key directly into your device, not enable your account via a database/application. Your friend would "load" the keys to their car while you borrow it, or "load" money to you by tapping watch-on-watch. Apple is uniquely positioned to remove Big Brother oversight from person-to-person transactions. It is only a matter of time before they build TouchID under the watch screen, and a cellular chip into the circuit board. My guess is Apple Watch v3, when they release a circular face.
Let's run a poll in eight months for the benefit of people who were gifted a FitBit or other tracker and see how those numbers stack up.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 29, 2015 8:13:51 GMT -8
Wait. Apple is killing it by selling more devices during Christmas than all of it's competitors, but according to CNBC, "Apple has tough road ahead": Analyst at CNBC (Tue 10:01AM EST)? Oh, I get it. They're at 49.1% domination this year but they were at 51.3% last year so their domination is declining. Yep. Checks out. /s
1. "Apple wins Christmas, again" at American City Business Journals (Tue 10:15AM EST) Apple accounted for 49 percent of all new devices activated during Christmas week, down slightly from 51.3 percent of devices activated at the same time last year, according to a report out from Flurry Insights.
2. "Here’s How Apple Devices Dominated Christmas Week" at Fortune (Tue 8:13AM EST) According to Flurry, Apple took the top spot in Christmas week activations again this year, with 49.1% of all new devices activated between Dec. 19 and Dec. 25. That’s down slightly from last year’s 51.3% in a market that’s still expanding. Flurry doesn’t offer unit sales estimates, but earlier this month research firm IDC projected that by the end of 2015 the worldwide market for smartphones would have grown 9.8% to 1.43 billion units. iPhone sales, according to IDC, were expected to grow 17.3%. At that rate, Apple could be headed for another record quarter.
3. Apple's Christmas Victory Over Android at Forbes (Tue 7:39AM EST) The 2015 holiday season has seen a huge number of mobile devices being given as presents, and Apple has accounted for nearly half of those activations, enough to give it victory over the army of Android devices. That’s the conclusion of a report from mobile analytics firm Flurry, which hands Cupertino 49.1 percent of all mobile activation between 18 December 2015 and 25 December 2015.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 29, 2015 8:48:23 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2015 9:03:11 GMT -8
When one gets hit hard like Apple has this year, and even recently in the last 4 months, it is hard to get back on your feet fast.
Brian White has a target of $200. What does he know compared to most who have a target of 140? Neither will be 100% and 2015 is evidence of that. Everyone including myself were wrong about this year and were would end up.
However you can't keep a good dog down for long. I think we are setting up for the a nice rebound. It won't happen in 2 or 6 months but more like 12 months.
We are a coiled spring that is about to pop in slow motion. Yes 2016 I see the stock being flat, but nothing prevents us from being 50% higher in one year. A fast burst to last years ATH and then gnashing of teeth about being flat for 2 straight years as we go into the summer.
In 2011 Apple was up 25% and Amazon down 2%. Amazon is up because WS sees the future thru rose colored glasses where Walmart and UPS will be hurt by a company with little profits. In 2012 Apple was up 70% to ATH. I roles may change in 2016 between Amazon and Apple.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 29, 2015 9:15:15 GMT -8
Sponge Apple certainly appears setup for the mother of all pops. The question, as always, is when.
Of course, I've been saying for several years that Amazon is poised for the ultimate drop. I learned the hard way to avoid Amazon... even with a big earnings miss, which I correctly anticipated, the stock surged. Ouch.
If I've learned anything in trading it's that timing is more important than the correct call.
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2015 9:27:42 GMT -8
I don't worry so much about timing. I still plan on getting out in the 130s if we get there in 2 months.
I think Apple will surprise us with good numbers. My new eps is 3.66. And the surprise us again with a nice dividend increase in April. So we may get a pop then as well..
OI interest for most of the year is between 115-130. I think those buying 140 and 150 calls are wishful thinkers for the summer. WS is telling us that they don't expect much from the stock.
This recent sell off was way oversold.
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Post by mrentropy on Dec 29, 2015 10:03:07 GMT -8
You can all thank me for the surge today, I bought puts yesterday.
Sigh.
Timing is everything
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2015 10:05:47 GMT -8
You can all thank me for the surge today, I bought puts yesterday. Sigh. Timing is everything Aren't you supposed to sell puts at the bottom. That is why cash is king. Will have some this summer.
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Post by nagrani on Dec 29, 2015 10:19:57 GMT -8
Sponge - U should start writing for Forbes, seeking alpha etc. I would for sure love to see you taking your act to the big stage. You aren't living up to your potential just posting here
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 29, 2015 10:35:59 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. We're running out of 2015 here. Looks like a GREEN day. AAPL is trading at 107.38 +0.56 (0.52%). Getting tired of asking if we will regain yesterday's loss... In the news: Cult of Mac has Apple’s A-series chip mastermind gets a happy Christmas bonus. Well earned. Cult of mac is running a Poll: 8 months in, are you still wearing your Apple Watch every day?. Though an internet poll, over 72% of over 14,000 respondents say yes. Another 12.5% say occasionally. While I'd love to see the numbers higher, that's pretty good in the context of many 'devices' I have purchased... which prompted the realization that Apple devices dominate the things I use daily -- Mac, iPad, iPhone and TV. I would love to see a similar poll about Google Glass. EVERYONE I know with Google Glass doesn't use it at all anymore. Yes, it is relegated to the junk electronics drawer permanently. I suppose it's time for Google to come out with V2 in that case
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2015 10:56:07 GMT -8
Nice to see us moving up higher than Google today
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 29, 2015 11:11:07 GMT -8
A few quick things:
1. Sponge should post in other places but geez...DON'T stop hanging around this place! Post here first!
2. I have YET to see any analyst, money manager, etc. refer to the Apple Watch as a success. I can appreciate that we all have opinions on this but when we don't have numbers - REAL NUMBERS - from the actual company - how the hell are you just stamping it a non-success. Even the 60 Minutes Charlie Rose interview was pointed to as TC not denying it...which is bull since he more or less referred to it as a work in progress. The problem is that it becomes engrained in your memory from hearing that the watch as a flop REPEATEDLY - that people start to actually believe it. ugh.
3. They (AAPL) screwed up a bit on the launch - IMHO - of the iPad Pro by not having the Pencil or Keypad ready to go at the same time. I know at least two people who were going to get it who put it off because they were waiting for all of it to be ready in order to gift it that way and ended up buying something else - simply annoying.
4. since84 - I lost my shirt and more on timing AMZN correctly on the downside only to have "the house" win (when I would buy puts) every damn time. Much to my dismay my husband talked me into buying calls and I felt like I was "cheating on APPL" for some reason. HOWEVER - I have made a nice little bundle. It kills me that it's in AMZN but WTF!? I may as well because WS is so in love with this stock and won't let it go down. It's insane but whatever!
5. With Apple....as always .... the one word for 2016 will be PATIENCE, PATIENCE, PATIENCE. I just wish I had more patience than I do...easier said than done.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 29, 2015 11:38:30 GMT -8
Wow, blue sky for AMZN and GOOGL... And why are they up? A brief look at each companies' news on their quote pages (i.e., WS-quality due diligence) reveals Google had record YouTube traffic. Oh, wow, and what is the net profit potential for building servers & fiber to stream cat videos? But the Apple Watch with 30-40% margins won't move the rev needle? And AMZN? "More than 3 million members joined Amazon Prime during the third week of December, and members more than doubled their viewing hours of Prime Video titles year-over-year" Even assuming that Prime is profitable (I'm not), how many of these people "joining" Prime right before Christmas were doing free trials and will cancel on the 30th day? (As I am doing, with my 4th Amazon account created just for this purpose). Typical Amazon financial opacity. Oh well, they'll make it up in VOLUME. My gawd, how does a fundamentally peerless company like Apple get bombarded by such FUD daily, but non-profits like Amazon escape any scrutiny? Makes me wanna holla, throw up my hands.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Dec 29, 2015 13:52:41 GMT -8
Wow, blue sky for AMZN and GOOGL ... My gawd, how does a fundamentally peerless company like Apple get bombarded by such FUD daily, but non-profits like Amazon escape any scrutiny? Makes me wanna holla, throw up my hands. Welcome back, JD, we've missed our regular doses of your deliciously purple prose skewering those blackguards of the tech press and analysts. Hey! It's nominally earnings season, so the FUD is just getting started. Looking forward to your ripostes.
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Post by rezonate on Dec 29, 2015 16:33:59 GMT -8
Slow melt up on low volume. Get those last minute, end of year tax trades on the books. Really wish the fruit would have done better here at the end, or crashed convincingly. Just flat meh to deal with.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Dec 29, 2015 16:40:33 GMT -8
I did a 50k tax trade yesterday which will clear on the 31st . . .
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Post by hledgard on Dec 29, 2015 19:27:14 GMT -8
JD, do you really think Amazon will implode? I do. Their website is becoming cluttered, and there is completion all around.
But Google, no. There are real ads on Youtube, and no one touches Google on search. Their moat is very wide I think. One can imagine Apple in trouble 10 years from now, but not Google.
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Post by deasys on Dec 29, 2015 21:32:25 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 29, 2015 22:19:17 GMT -8
Merry Past Christmas and a Happy New Year, AFB2 peoples!
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